Can Iranian drone tech shift Middle East’s strategic balance of power?

Clockwise from left: Marine Corps Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie, commander of US Central Command; drones on display at an undisclosed location in central Iran; Iranian military officials inspecting drones on display. (AFP/Iranian Army website/File Photos)
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Updated 26 May 2021
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Can Iranian drone tech shift Middle East’s strategic balance of power?

  • Armed drones used by Iran-backed militias against US and partners constitute new form of asymmetric warfare
  • Iran’s drone program has identified chink in its opponents’ armor and is actively exploiting this vulnerability

IRBIL, IRAQ: The drone threat posed to US and coalition personnel by Iran-backed militias is growing, and defenses against such threats remain limited — particularly in the face of Tehran’s growing capabilities. That was the clear message delivered by the US military commander in the Middle East during his most recent visit to Iraq.

Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie’s warning came in the wake of a rash of drone attacks launched by Iran’s proxies and allied groups in the region against coalition positions and regional partners of the US, a development viewed by many as a sign of a shift in the strategic balance of power.

“We’re working very hard to find technical fixes that would allow us to be more effective against drones,” the US Central Command (CENTCOM) commander said. “We’re open to all kinds of things. The army is working it very hard. Still, I don’t think we’re where we want to be.”

Take the drone attack launched from Iraq in January that targeted Saudi Arabia. Or the explosives-laden drone strike in April that targeted the US troop base at Irbil International Airport inside the normally secure autonomous Kurdistan region, causing a large fire and damage to a building.

While the attacks did not cause major casualties, they nevertheless underscored the evolving nature of the threat, and Iran’s rapidly advancing drone capabilities.

The Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen has frequently used loitering munitions, also known as suicide drones, against Saudi Arabia’s civilian and military infrastructure, which appear to feature components based heavily on an Iranian design.

In the conflict in the Gaza Strip, the Palestinian group Hamas used kamikaze-type drones against Israel, which exhibited many similarities to the same Iranian design.

In what appears to be more than just a coincidence, a complex that houses a factory that makes Iranian drones suffered a major explosion just days after Israel claimed that Iran was providing drones to Hamas.

Sunday’s blast injured at least nine workers at the petrochemical factory in Isfahan. The Iran Aircraft Manufacturing Industrial Company, which makes a variety of aircraft and drones for Iranian and pro-Iranian forces, is located in the complex, owned by Sepahan Nargostar Chemical Industries.




A handout picture provided by the Iranian Army's official website on September 11, 2020, shows an Iranian Simorgh drone during the second day of a military exercise in the Gulf, near the strategic strait of Hormuz. (AFP/Iranian Army website/File Photo)

There was no independent confirmation of the cause of the explosion or the precise factory affected. Analysts pointed out that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had displayed on Thursday parts of a drone that he said were made by Iran and had flown over from Iraq or Syria.

A recent Reuters report suggests that Iran has changed its strategy in Iraq with regard to use of projectiles. Instead of relying on larger established Shiite militia groups to carry out proxy attacks against US and coalition forces, it is now relying on much smaller militia groups completely loyal to Tehran.

The regime reportedly took 250 of these fighters to Lebanon last year, where they were trained by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) advisers to fly drones and carry out rocket attacks. The result has been a spate of drone attacks, both within and originating from Iraq.

Weaponry of this kind can be difficult to defend against, even for US forces operating advanced air defense systems, according to experts.

“The use of weaponized drone systems in Yemen, or during the latest conflict in Gaza, is a blueprint for how drones will be used in conflict from this point forward,” Dr. James Rogers, of the Center for War Studies at the University of Southern Denmark, told Arab News.

“The ability to send multiple drones and missiles all at once means that even the most sophisticated defense systems can be saturated and overrun.”




An image grab taken from Kurdistan 24 TV channel on February 19, 2021 shows damage following a rocket attack two days ago targeting a military complex inside the Irbil airport that hosts foreign troops deployed as part of a US-led coalition. (AFP/Kurdistan 24/File Photo) 

Iran’s fingerprints are all over the recent proliferation of armed drones among non-state actors and militias throughout the Middle East. As Rogers notes, the distance and deniability afforded by the drone has made it “a valued tool” in Iran’s arsenal.

“The Iranian drone program has innovated with sophisticated, indigenously produced drones, which it supplies to regional allies,” he said.

“This broad diffusion of Iranian drone technologies makes it almost impossible to tell who conducted a lethal drone strike in the region, and thus who should be held responsible and accountable. This is only going to get more difficult.”

The designs Iran supplies are very similar to Tehran’s own models, notably the Ababil series. Variants of these drones have appeared in the Houthi and Hamas arsenals, and in that of Iran’s main regional proxy, the Lebanese Hezbollah.

The technology has the added benefit of being easily disassembled for covert transport and reassembly at its destination.

For example, an anonymous Iraqi official told the Associated Press news agency that the drone that targeted Riyadh in January was delivered to Iraqi militiamen “in parts from Iran … assembled in Iraq, and launched from Iraq.”




Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander Major General Hossein Salami at Tehran's Islamic Revolution and Holy Defence museum during the unveiling of an exhibition of what Iran says are US and other drones captured in its territory, in the capital Tehran on September 21, 2019. (AFP/File Photo)

The efficacy of the weapons in question has been augmented by recent advancements in commercial drone technology.

“Now a number of non-state actors have Iranian designs. They are able to produce their own systems, fitted with commercially available technologies, which they can then supply to their allies,” Rogers said. “In essence, the drone is out of the bag, and the threat is spreading.”

Iran is well aware it has found a chink in its opponents’ armor — and is actively exploiting this vulnerability.

“Using suicide drones is a way for Iran to score a serious hit on the US presence (in Iraq) by potentially taking out a high-value asset, which is very hard to do with a spray of unguided long-range rockets, while also being more discriminate and avoiding the risk of a serious kinetic US response,” Alex Almeida, an Iraq security analyst at the energy consultancy Horizon Client Access, told Arab News.

“I think it’s very likely the militias will use these larger fixed-wing drones in the future — if they haven’t already — including potentially for longer-ranged strikes outside Iraq.”

Almeida believes that the US has the “tools” to adequately defend its bases and forces from this drone threat, “even if they don’t seem to have performed effectively in recent attacks” at Irbil or Al-Asad.

“The issue is that if these attacks become more frequent, all US points of presence in Iraq, Syria, and eventually other locales in the region are going to require their own layered counter-drone defenses,” he said. 

“Iran is deliberately presenting a multi-layered threat, from conventional ‘dumb’ mortar and rocket fire to small quadcopter and larger fixed-wing drones. These defensive requirements impose their own additional costs on the US presence, which the Iranians are no doubt aware of.”




An image grab taken from Kurdistan 24 TV channel on February 19, 2021 shows damage following a rocket attack two days ago targeting a military complex inside the Arbil airport that hosts foreign troops deployed as part of a US-led coalition. (AFP/Kurdistan 24/File Photo)

For her part, Kirsten Fontenrose, Middle East security director at the Atlantic Council, believes drone training, technologically complex drone components and the blueprints for locally manufacturing drones are all provided by the IRGC to the militias it directs or arms across the Middle East.

“For the US and its partners in the region, the proliferation of more sophisticated Iranian drone designs made with commercially available Chinese parts requires a reassessment of what the US force presence should look like, what kinds of systems we prioritize developing, and how we train together,” she told Arab News.

Fontenrose said there are three key factors in countering such drone attacks. First is the direction of attack. “Drone detection systems do not always have a 360-degree range of detection,” she said. “If you incorrectly predict the direction from which a drone attack will come, your defenses may be facing away and never see it coming.”

Second, there are the flight guidance enablers on the drone. “You must know whether a drone is guided by GPS, or using cellular signals, or know the frequency it operates on, for example,” she said. “If you target the wrong enabler, you will not defeat the drone.”

Finally, there is the drone’s payload.




Drones during a ceremony in Iran's southern port city of Bandar Abbas. (AFP/Iran’s Revolutionary Guard via Sepah/File Photo)

“If you successfully counter and take over control of a drone that is flying at you, you must know whether it is carrying an explosive, a chemical agent, or a camera before you decide whether to bring it to you to investigate, land it in a populated area to prevent it reaching the target, or return it home possibly carrying sensitive information,” Fontenrose told Arab News.

The Biden team had signaled loudly even before it took office of its determination to find a pathway back into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran. This stated objective has since translated into indirect talks in Vienna.

Strategic and defense experts believe Iran has been testing the US administration with calculated provocations in multiple theaters, partly in an effort to take the measure of President Joe Biden, and partly as a way to gain leverage in the nuclear negotiations.

Nicholas Heras, senior analyst and program head for State Resilience and Fragility at the Newlines Institute, says Iran’s defense establishment is “leaning into a strategy of utilizing drone forces to present asymmetric challenges to more technologically advanced state actor competitors.

“Iran is building best-in-class capabilities with the concept of drone swarms in the air and at sea, which is a skill set that worries US defense and intelligence officials who are required to protect US forces deployed to the Middle East,” Heras told Arab News.

“The IRGC is the global leader in disseminating the tactics, techniques and procedures for drone warfare to non-state actors, who can then execute highly sensitive attacks against Iran’s opponents while giving Iran the ability to deny that it ordered the attacks.”




This handout photo provided by Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) official website via SEPAH News on May 22, 2021 shows new combat drones dubbed "Gaza" in tribute to Palestinians, unvailed in the capital Tehran, hours after a ceasefire between Israel and Palestinian armed factions took effect. (AFP/Iran's Revolutionary Guard via Sepah News)

The IRGC’s preferred models of choice are kamikaze drones, which crash into their respective targets and explode on impact, since they are easy to assemble, easy to operate, easy to use for overwhelming swarm attacks, and very challenging to counter. Such drones are most likely what McKenzie has in mind.

“There is no one anti-air system that will work best against the drone warfare methods that the IRGC is teaching Iran’s partners and proxies,” Heras said.

“Countering Iran’s networked drone warfare requires active signals intelligence to identify operatives and drone manufacturing sites, and rapid reaction strikes to hit them before they get off the ground.”

The threat posed by drones to the US — and, by extension, to its regional partners — has become impossible to ignore even by an administration whose stated goal is to end America’s “forever wars” and focus on the threats from Russia and China.

“These small- and medium-sized (drones) present a new and complex threat to our forces and those of our partners and allies,” McKenzie told Congress in April.

“For the first time since the Korean War, we are operating without complete air superiority.”

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Twitter: @pauliddon


Palestinian ambassador: UK should recognize statehood to help end ‘deadly status quo’

Updated 13 June 2025
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Palestinian ambassador: UK should recognize statehood to help end ‘deadly status quo’

  • Husam Zomlot urges Britain to ‘right historic wrongs,’ show ‘political courage’
  • UN conference on 2-state solution could see states, including France, Canada, recognize Palestine

LONDON: The Palestinian ambassador to the UK has called on the Labour government to fulfill its manifesto pledge and recognize his nation as an independent sovereign state.

Husam Zomlot wrote in The Guardian that the move was “long overdue” ahead of a UN conference on the two-state solution next week in New York, and that it would help end the “deadly status quo” with Israel.

“I call on the British government to end this vicious path, right its historic wrongs and officially recognize the state of Palestine while the conditions are uniquely ripe to do so,” Zomlot wrote.

“Recognition is neither a reward for one party nor a punishment for another. It is a long-overdue affirmation of the Palestinian people’s unconditional right to exist and live freely in our homeland,” he added.

“Peace is not made between occupier and occupied. It can only exist between equals.”

Ahead of the UN conference on June 17, set to be co-chaired by France and Saudi Arabia, several states yet to recognize Palestine have begun discussions about doing so, including the UK and Canada. 

Middle East Minister Hamish Falconer came under pressure in the House of Commons on Tuesday for the government to recognize Palestine unconditionally.

Foreign Secretary David Lammy recently told Parliament the UK had held direct talks with France about Palestinian statehood, but added the UK wanted the move to amount to more than just a symbolic gesture.

But Zomlot wrote: “Recognition (should not) be subject to ever more conditions on the Palestinian side. Delaying recognition simply reinforces the deadly status quo, denying Palestinians’ equal rights until Israel consents, thus granting our occupier a permanent veto over the future.”

Ahead of the conference, the French government, which is also believed to be among those set to recognize Palestine, published a letter laying out political commitments made by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, including that a future Palestinian state would require Hamas “laying down its weapons” and “no longer ruling Gaza.”

The commitments included holding democratic presidential elections within a year, and Hamas accepting nonviolence, disarmament, and the two-state solution. Abbas also condemned the Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel by the militant group, and demanded the release of all remaining hostages in Gaza.

Hugh Lovatt, from the European Council on Foreign Relations, told The Guardian: “Recognition would certainly allow London and Paris to press the PA towards political renewal, including the holding of long-overdue elections, but it does not provide them with much leverage over Hamas which does not consider recognition by itself as being of sufficient value of itself to disarm before a peace agreement with Israel is reached.”

A senior diplomat from a Gulf state told The Guardian that Hamas had agreed to the proposal to end its rule in Gaza, but not to disarming.

Another Gulf diplomat told the paper: “Israel is seeking the total annihilation of Hamas and will not be willing to hand security in Gaza to the PA or a multinational force.”

The US government sent a diplomatic cable on Tuesday urging countries not to attend the conference, calling it “counterproductive to ongoing, lifesaving efforts to end the war in Gaza and free hostages.”

But Zomlot wrote: “This is a moment of historic consequence. It demands moral clarity and political courage. I urge the UK to rise to the moment and act now.”


Arab world, Middle East condemn Israel’s attacks against Iran

Updated 13 June 2025
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Arab world, Middle East condemn Israel’s attacks against Iran

DUBAI: The Arab world has responded to Israel’s strikes against Iran, each country offering its condemnation of the attacks that killed at least two top military officers, raising the potential for an all-out war between the two bitter Middle East adversaries.

The UAE, through its foreign affairs ministry, stressed the importance of “exercising the utmost self-restraint and judgment to mitigate risks and prevent the expansion of the conflict.”

 

 

“Enhancing dialogue, adhering to international law, and respecting the sovereignty of states constitute essential principles for resolving the current crises,” the foreign affairs ministry added.

The UAE emphasized the need to resolve disputes through diplomatic means rather than confrontation and escalation, and called on the United Nations Security Council to take urgent and necessary measures to achieve a ceasefire, and to reinforce international peace and security.

Oman offered its “strong condemnation of the brutal military aggression launched by Israel on the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which targeted sovereign facilities and caused casualties.”

 

 

“Oman considers this action a dangerous and reckless escalation that constitutes a flagrant violation of the United Nations Charter and the principles of international law. It also represents unacceptable and ongoing aggressive behavior that undermines the foundations of stability in the region,” the country’s foreign affairs ministry said.

And Jordan’s foreign ministry spokesperson Sufian Qudah warned of the “consequences of such escalatory actions, saying they threatened regional security and stability and risk exacerbating tensions”, state news agency Petra reported.

 

 

Elsewhere Qatar said it “considers the assault a blatant violation of Iran’s sovereignty and security, as well as a clear breach of international law and its established principles,” state news agency QNA meanwhile reported.

“The State of Qatar voices its grave concern over this dangerous escalation, which forms part of a recurring pattern of aggressive policies that threaten regional peace and stability and hinder efforts aimed at de-escalation and diplomatic resolution.”

Qatar emphasized “the urgent need for the international community to assume its legal and moral responsibilities and to act swiftly to halt these Israeli violations.”

 

 

“The State of Qatar reaffirms its firm position in rejecting all forms of violence, and reiterates its call for restraint and the avoidance of escalation that could widen the scope of conflict and undermine regional security and stability,” QNA reported.

Turkiye also condemned “in the strongest terms” Israel’s air strike on Iran, calling it a provocation that violates international law and risks further escalation in the region.

The Turkish foreign ministry in a statement said the attack showed Israel “does not want issues to be resolved through diplomatic means” and urged it to halt “aggressive actions that could lead to greater conflicts.”

 

 

Jassim Mohammed Al-Budaiwi, Secretary-General of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), also described the Israeli attacks as a ‘clear violation of international law and the United Nations Charter.’

Al-Budaiwi, in a statement, called on the ‘international community and the Security Council to assume their responsibilities towards immediately halting this aggression and avoiding escalation that could ignite a wider conflict, which would have dire consequences for regional and international peace.’

In its condemnation of the attacks, Bahrain’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs warned of its “grave repercussions on regional security and stability”.

And it called for “de-escalation, restraint, and a reduction in tensions”.

The Ministry reiterated Bahrain’s call for an immediate halt to military escalation to spare the region and its people from the consequences on regional stability, security, and international peace.

And it affirmed Bahrain’s stance advocating for the resolution of the crises through dialogue and diplomatic means, as well as the necessity of continuing US-Iranian negotiations regarding the Iranian nuclear file.


Trump urges Iran to ‘make a deal, before there is nothing left’

Updated 13 June 2025
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Trump urges Iran to ‘make a deal, before there is nothing left’

  • Trump earlier told Fox News he was aware Israel was going to conduct strikes on Iran before it happened
  • Secretary of State Marco Rubio said earlier Thursday that the United States was “not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region”

WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump urged Iran on Friday to “make a deal,” warning that there will be more “death and destruction” after Israel launched deadly strikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities.

His comments on his Truth Social platform came after Israel pounded Iran in a series of air raids on Friday, striking 100 targets.

The operation killed senior figures – among them the armed forces chief and top nuclear scientists – and Iran has called Israel’s wave of strikes a “declaration of war.”

On Friday morning, Trump said: “I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal.”

He added that Israel – which Trump has aligned Washington to since his return to the White House – has a lot of weapons thanks to the United States and “they know how to use it.”

“There has already been great death and destruction, but there is still time to make this slaughter, with the next already planned attacks being even more brutal, come to an end,” Trump said on his Truth Social platform.

“Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left... JUST DO IT, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE,” he said.

Trump earlier told Fox News he had been made aware of the Israeli strikes before they happened, and stressed that Tehran “cannot have a nuclear bomb,” the US broadcaster said.

He also said that “we are hoping to get back to the negotiating table,” according to Fox News.

During Trump’s first term, he pulled the United States out of a landmark agreement to relieve sanctions on Iran in return for curbs on its nuclear program.

Fox News also reported that Trump’s administration reached out to at least one key Middle Eastern ally to acknowledge that the strike was going to happen, but said the United States was not involved.

“Trump noted the US is ready to defend itself and Israel if Iran retaliates,” Fox News said.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said earlier Thursday that the United States was “not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region.”

“Let me be clear: Iran should not target US interests or personnel.”

Trump will be attending a National Security Council meeting Friday morning.


UN nuclear watchdog chief ready to travel to Iran to assess situation

Updated 13 June 2025
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UN nuclear watchdog chief ready to travel to Iran to assess situation

VIENNA: UN nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi said on Friday he was ready to travel to Iran to assess the situation there after Israel carried out widespread military strikes that hit the sprawling nuclear complex at Natanz.

In a statement to a meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors, Grossi said the other main enrichment center in Iran, Fordow, was not hit and neither was another nuclear facility in Esfahan, citing Iranian authorities.

There are no elevated radiation levels at Natanz, he added.

“I call on all parties to exercise maximum restraint to avoid further escalation. I reiterate that any military action that jeopardizes the safety and security of nuclear facilities risks grave consequences for the people of Iran, the region, and beyond,” Grossi said in his statement.

“I have indicated to the respective authorities my readiness to travel at the earliest to assess the situation and ensure safety, security and non-proliferation in Iran.”

He did not say what the extent of the damage at Natanz was or what parts of the site were hit. The site includes a vast underground uranium enrichment plant and a smaller, above-ground pilot enrichment plant.

Iran is enriching to up to 60 percent purity, close to the roughly 90 percent of weapons grade, at the pilot plant, but it is producing smaller quantities of that material there than at Fordow, a site dug into a mountain that military experts have said would be difficult for Israel to destroy through bombardment.

“Despite the current military actions and heightened tensions, it is clear that the only sustainable path forward – for Iran, for Israel, the entire region, and the international community – is one grounded in dialogue and diplomacy to ensure peace, stability, and cooperation,” Grossi said.


Jordan closes airspace, says it won’t be battleground for any conflict

Updated 13 June 2025
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Jordan closes airspace, says it won’t be battleground for any conflict

DUBAI: Jordan has not and will not allow any violation of its airspace, nor will it be a battleground for any conflict, a senior minister said in a statement on Friday.

“Jordan’s national security is a red line, and the Kingdom will not allow any attempt to threaten its security and the safety of its citizens,” Mohammad Momani, Minister of Government Communication and Government Spokesperson added.

Royal Jordanian Air Force aircraft and air defense systems intercepted a number of missiles and drones that entered Jordanian airspace Friday morning, a report from state news agency Petra stated.

The interception operation came in response to military assessments that missiles and drones were bound to fall into Jordanian territory, including populated areas, which could cause casualties, Petra added.

Momani also urged the international community to exercise pressure in order to restore calm and prevent further escalation in the region.

Jordan’s aviation authority closed the country’s airspace and grounded all flights after Israel attacked Iran.

“The Kingdom’s airspace is temporarily closed, and air traffic suspended for all aircraft – incoming, outgoing and in transit, as a precaution against any risks resulting from the regional escalation,” the authority said in a statement.

The country’s armed forces were also placed on high alert in response to growing regional tensions, a military source said.

The General Command was closely monitoring developments in the region and that the armed forces were at the highest levels of operational and logistical readiness to respond any potential emergencies, the Petra report noted.