KARACHI: Pakistan’s central bank on Thursday made an upward revision to the country’s real economic growth forecast for the outgoing fiscal year while urging policymakers to monitor debt servicing, inflation and emerging import pressure to keep the economy on track.
“It is likely that real Gross Domestic Product [GDP] growth will exceed the target of 2.1 percent, and the SBP [State Bank of Pakistan] has revised its real GDP forecast for FY21 upwards to 2.0-3.0 percent from the earlier range of 1.5-2.0 percent,” the bank said in its second quarterly report on Pakistan’s economy released earlier today.
The revised rate is based on positive economic trends in the manufacturing sector, effective control of the third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in Pakistan and expected increase in wheat production, according to the central bank.
Last month, Pakistan’s nominal GDP was estimated at 3.94 percent by the National Accounts Committee for the current fiscal year due to better output in the agricultural, industrial and services sectors.
“Further impetus to the current economic momentum could come from a successful rollout of vaccines in the coming months,” the report said, adding that business confidence had also been improving and “the resumption of the IMF program is expected to unlock additional external financing and also support the country’s progress on the structural reform agenda.”
After highlighting the positive factors, the report flagged three areas that needed continuous vigilance from policymakers.
“First is the burden of debt servicing,” it said. “Despite relative improvement in revenue generation, the bulk of interest payments during H1-FY21 was financed via the issuance of new debt. This indicates the need to expand the revenue base, notably by accelerating the ongoing documentation drive and plugging leakages in tax collection.”
The central bank also emphasized it was important to monitor inflation in the Consumer Price Index which declined during the first half of the outgoing fiscal year on year-on-year basis and stayed within the SBP's projected range throughout the year.
“The SBP’s full-year CPI inflation projection is unchanged, in the range of 7-9 percent,” the report continued. “The main upside risk to this assessment would come from a substantial increase in international commodity prices.”
“Deepening in any domestic supply-side challenges for food items or utility tariff hikes may also lead to higher inflation outturns,” it added.
The SBP also warned of import pressure build-up.
“With the domestic economic activity recovering and global commodity prices rising, import pressures are resurfacing,” it noted. “These pressures have been accentuated by the domestic supply-side challenges for major agricultural commodities. Shortfall of agricultural commodities in the domestic market, such as cotton, sugar and wheat, have necessitated their imports and pushed up the overall import payments.”
The central bank, however, acknowledged that the surge in workers’ remittances had been offsetting the impact of these payments, as export receipts were still lower than last year.
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan witnessed intense turmoil and political polarization in 2024, beginning with the sentencing of former prime minister Imran Khan and his close aide Shah Mahmood Qureshi to ten years in prison. It came just days before a controversial general election in February, which was marred by poll-rigging accusations and delayed results.
The political climate continued to worsen with large-scale protests, including a march to Islamabad by Khan supporters that turned violent, with casualties on both sides further fueling tensions.
The month of December was particularly marked by major developments from Khan’s threat of a civil disobedience movement to the criticism of the PM Shehbaz Sharif’s government by international human rights groups over the sentencing of civilians by military courts.
Amid escalating tensions, the year ended with tentative steps toward a dialogue between the government and the opposition, offering a glimmer of hope in a year dominated by political unrest, legal battles and mounting economic challenges.
EX-PM KHAN SENTENCED IN STATE SECRETS CASE
On Jan. 30, a Pakistani court handed former prime minister Imran Khan and his close aide Shah Mahmood Qureshi a ten-year jail term each in a case in which they were accused of leaking state secrets.
The case, popularly called the “cipher case,” related to an alleged diplomatic correspondence between Washington and Islamabad that Khan says was proof that his ouster as PM in 2022 was part of a US-backed “foreign conspiracy” to remove him. Washington has repeatedly denied Khan’s accusations.
The conviction came a week before general election in Pakistan, in which Khan was already barred from standing after he was convicted of corruption.
Security officers escort Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Imran Khan, as he appeared in Islamabad High Court, Islamabad, Pakistan May 12, 2023. (REUTERS/File)
FEB. 8 NATIONAL ELECTION
In February 2024, Pakistan held its national election that was marred by a mobile Internet shutdown on the election day and unusually delayed results, leading to accusations that it was rigged and drawing concern from rights groups and foreign governments.
Former prime minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party was severely hamstrung ahead of the polls, with rallies banned, its party symbol taken away, and dozens of its candidates rejected from eligibility to stand.
Despite that, independent candidates backed by Khan’s party won the highest number of seats, but not enough to form a government on their own. The election saw Khan’s main political rival, Shehbaz Sharif, become prime minister after being favored by a coalition of parties.
To date, the PTI claims the vote was rigged and has held several protest rallies to demand an audit of results. Khan’s opponents and election authorities deny the allegation.
In this handout photograph taken and released by the Pakistan President House on March 4, 2024, Pakistan's President Arif Alvi (R) administers the oath to newly sworn-in Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif (C) at the President House in Islamabad. (President House/File)
ASIF ZARDARI BECOMES PRESIDENT FOR A SECOND TERM
Veteran politician and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari took oath as the 14th president of Pakistan on March 10.
Zardari bagged 411 votes in the indirect electoral contest held in Pakistan’s parliament and provincial assemblies. His opponent, Mahmood Khan Achakzai, who was supported by the Khan-backed Sunni Ittehad Council party, could only secure 181 votes.
Zardari served the previous stint from 2008 to 2013, during which he ushered in constitutional reforms, including the 18th amendment, to ensure greater provincial autonomy, and rolled back presidential powers.
Former Chief Justice of Pakistan Qazi Faez Isa, administers the oath of the office of the President of Pakistan to Asif Ali Zardari (right), at the Presidential Palace in Islamabad, Pakistan, on March 10, 2024. (PID/File)
FORMER SPYMASTER FAIZ HAMEED ARRESTED
In August, Pakistan’s army said it had arrested former spymaster Lt. Gen. (retired) Faiz Hameed and initiated court martial proceedings against him.
Hameed has since been formally arraigned on a number of charges, including engaging in political activities and violating the Pakistan Army Act post-retirement. The former general is widely seen to have been close to ex-PM Khan.
Many analysts believe that Hameed’s unprecedented arrest and possible conviction could raise the heat on Khan and be the precursor to prosecuting the jailed former prime minister before a military court on charges of treason and attempting to incite a mutiny in the military.
An undated file photo of Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan in conversation with ex-DG ISI Lt. Gen. (retired) Faiz Hameed at the PM Office in Islamabad. (Photo courtesy: PM Office/File)
26TH CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT
On Oct. 21, President Zardari signed into law the contentious 26th constitutional amendment that empowered parliament to choose the country’s chief justice from a panel of three senior-most judges of the Supreme Court among other things.
Another clause of the bill stated that the Supreme Court judges will be appointed by a judicial commission, led by the chief justice and comprising three senior judges, one member each from the National Assembly and the Senate, federal law minister, attorney general of Pakistan, and a nominee of the Pakistan Bar Council having not less than 15 years of practice in the Supreme Court. The commission will also monitor judges’ performance and report any concerns to the Supreme Judicial Council.
The ruling coalition had the amendment passed by both houses of parliament a night before, amid opposition from ex-PM Khan’s party and the legal fraternity, who argued it was an attempt to curtail the independence of the judiciary. The government denied it. YAHYA AFRIDI TAKES OATH AS CHIEF JUSTICE OF PAKISTAN
Soon after the 26th constitutional amendment, a 12-member parliamentary panel nominated Justice Yahya Afridi for the top judicial post and he took oath of the chief justice’s office on Oct. 26.
Afridi replaced Chief Justice Qazi Faez Isa who retired on Oct. 25 after what was widely considered to be his controversial stint in office for a little more than a year.
Isa was accused by ex-PM Khan’s party of being aligned with the coalition government led by PM Sharif. It was under Isa’s tenure as chief justice that Pakistan’s top court denied Khan’s PTI its iconic bat symbol ahead of Feb. 8 general election, saying the party had failed to hold intra-party elections. The verdict meant all PTI candidates had to contest election as independents, which angered Khan supporters, who accused Isa of being biased in favor of Sharif. ISLAMABAD PROTEST TO SECURE KHAN’S RELEASE
On Nov. 24, Khan’s PTI party led thousands of supporters to Islamabad, seeking to pressure the government to release the ex-premier from jail and order an audit of Feb. 8 poll results.
The protest, which was by far the largest to grip the capital since the election, resulted in clashes that Pakistan’s government says killed four law enforcers and injured hundreds of others.
The PTI says at least 12 of its supporters were killed and another 37 sustained injuries due to firing by law enforcers near Islamabad’s Jinnah Avenue on Nov. 26. Pakistani authorities have denied the deaths, saying security personnel had not been carrying live ammunition during the protest.
Supporters of jailed former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) attend a rally demanding his release, in Islamabad on November 26, 2024. (REUTERS/File)
CALL FOR CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE MOVEMENT
Ex-PM Khan on Dec. 6 threatened to start a civil disobedience movement, days after his party led a deadly protest march on Islamabad.
The former premier demanded a judicial probe into the crackdown on the Nov 24 protest march which he said killed at least 12 of his supporters and violence on May 9 last year which killed 8, along with the release of all arrested political workers.
Khan’s call for civil disobedience movement came a day after he was indicted on charges of directing the May 9, 2023 attacks on government and military installations, to which he pleaded not guilty. The indictment was the latest in dozens of cases against the former cricket star, who has been in jail since August last year. SENTENCING OF PAKISTANI CIVILIANS BY MILITARY COURTS
On Dec. 21, Pakistan’s military announced sentencing of 25 civilians to prison for participating in violent protests on May 9, 2023, when hundreds carrying flags of ex-PM Khan’s party had attacked government and military installations. Khan’s party denies involvement in the violent protests and has called for a judicial probe into the matter.
The United States (US), United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU) expressed concerns over the verdicts, calling on Islamabad to respect the citizens’ right to a fair trial and due process. Pakistan’s Foreign Office dismissed the concerns and said the verdicts had been made under a law enacted by parliament and in line with a judgment of the country’s top court.
Days later, another 60 civilians were sentenced by military courts to jail time ranging from 2 to 10 years in connection with the riots. TALKS TO EASE RISING POLITICAL TENSIONS
Weeks after Khan’s civil disobedience threat, PM Sharif’s government and Khan’s PTI opposition party held the first round of formal negotiations on Dec. 23, in a bid to ease prolonged political tensions.
Khan previously rejected talks with the government, saying his party would only speak to the ‘real powerbrokers’ in Pakistan, the all-powerful army, but earlier this month he set up a negotiating committee of top PTI members to open dialogue with the government for the fulfilment of two demands: the release of political prisoners and the establishment of judicial commissions to investigate May 9, 2023 and Nov. 26 violent protests.
The country has remained gripped by political unrest and uncertainty since Khan’s ouster from power through a parliamentary no-confidence vote in 2022, which has also exacerbated Pakistan’s economic hardships.
Senior government representatives have recently acknowledged that negotiations could offer a pathway out of the current political impasse, with the PTI asked to present its demands in writing at the next round of talks on Jan. 2.
ISLAMABAD: The government in Pakistan’s most populous Punjab province and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have agreed to form a working group to promote bilateral cooperation, state-run media said on Tuesday.
The UAE is Pakistan’s third-largest trading partner after China and the United States and a major source of foreign investment. The Gulf country is also home to more than a million Pakistani expatriates and serves as an important source of workers remittances.
Pakistani policymakers consider the UAE an optimal export destination due to its geographical proximity, which minimizes transportation and freight costs while facilitating commercial transactions.
Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz met UAE’s Ambassador Hamad Obaid Ibrahim Salem Alzaabi in the eastern city of Lahore on Tuesday, Radio Pakistan said in a report.
“The UAE and Punjab government have decided to form a working group to further boost bilateral cooperation,” the report said. “During the meeting, both the sides discussed ways and means to boost economic cooperation, development projects in Punjab, and the promotion of tourism.”
Nawaz invited UAE investors to invest in Punjab and ensured special incentives and a conducive business environment for them, the state broadcaster said. The UAE envoy said that the Gulf country wants to work on additional projects in Pakistan, Radio Pakistan said.
“Hamad Obaid Ibrahim Salem Alzaabi said that the UAE is committed to promoting durable progress through public-private partnerships with the Punjab Government,” the report stated.
As Pakistan faces a prolonged macroeconomic crisis, it has reached out to Gulf countries in the past two years to attract international investment in vital economic sectors. In May, Pakistan announced that the UAE had committed $10 billion to invest in the country’s key economic sectors.
In January this year, Pakistan and the UAE signed multiple agreements worth over $3 billion for cooperation in railways, economic zones and infrastructure. In November, Pakistan and the UAE signed four Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) covering customs, rail and airport infrastructure, maritime shipping and logistics sectors during a UAE delegation’s visit to Pakistan.
Pakistani security forces suffer deadliest year in decade while fighting insurgency— think tank
On average, nearly seven lives were lost daily, says Islamabad-based think tank’s report
Pakistan military says 925 insurgents, 383 soldiers were killed in operations during 2024
Updated 31 December 2024
AP
PESHAWAR: Pakistani security forces in 2024 suffered the highest causalities in nearly a decade while battling insurgency, an Islamabad-based think tank said.
This comes as militants attacked a security post in the country’s restive northwest, which borders Afghanistan, killing a police officer and a civilian early Tuesday.
An officer was also wounded in the attack at the Draban Post in Dera Ismail Khan, a district in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, local police official Abdullah Khan said, adding that the civilian was an employee of the Customs department.
No one claimed responsibility for the attack but suspicion was likely to fall on the Pakistani Taliban, also known as Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, who often target security forces across the country, especially in the former tribal regions in the troubled northwest bordering Afghanistan.
The Center for Research and Security Studies said in its report Tuesday that this year was the deadliest for Pakistani security forces in 9 years.
“On average, nearly seven lives were lost daily,” according to the report which tallied “at least 685 fatalities and 444 terror attacks.” It also said: “Equally alarming were the cumulative losses of civilians and security personnel, i.e. 1612 fatalities, accounting for over 63 percent of the total recorded this year and marking 73 percent more losses compared to 934 outlaws eliminated.”
The think tank said its latest report was based on data collected from open sources, mainly media outlets. In Pakistan, the military doesn’t regularly confirm causalities among troops.
There was no immediate comment from the military on the report.
Last week, military spokesman Lt. Gen. Ahmad Sharif said in a news conference that 925 insurgents were killed in 2024, a record high compared to the past five years, while 383 soldiers were killed in such operations. He also said Pakistani security forces this year conducted 59,775 operations against insurgents in the country.
Pakistan in recent months has stepped up intelligence-based operations against the Pakistani Taliban, emboldened since the Afghan Taliban seized power in Afghanistan in 2021.
ISLAMABAD: Pakistani squash player Azan Ali Khan clinched the Junior Under-17 Scottish Junior Open Championship 2024 in Edinburgh this week, defeating Switzerland’s Landro Wagle in the final while remaining undefeated throughout the tournament, a non-government organization sponsoring him said on Tuesday.
The Scottish Junior Open 2024 was held from Dec. 28 to 30, featuring players from 22 countries such as Canada, the United Kingdom, Italy, Egypt and the United States.
“Azlan Ali Khan has emerged as the champion of the 2024 Scottish Junior Open Championship,” Muslim Hands Pakistan, Khan’s sponsor, said in a statement. “Azan Ali Khan defeated Switzerland’s Landro Wagle in the final to win the title.”
Muslim Hands Pakistan, a branch of the UK-based charity, works to alleviate poverty, sickness and lack of education in the country. It operates over 335 schools, serving more than 25,000 students and runs projects in health care, water, sanitation and vocational training.
Khan dedicated his victory to Pakistan’s out-of-school children. The South Asian country has a population 22.8 million out-of-school children aged 5-16 years, making Pakistan the country with the second-highest number of out-of-school children.
Rana Mashood Ahmed Khan, chairman of the Pakistan Prime Minister’s Youth Program, congratulated Khan, his coach and team manager on the achievement.
“Azan Ali Khan is now preparing for the next stage and will compete in the British Open World Junior Squash Championship,” Muslim Hands said. “The British Open World Junior Squash Championship will be held from January 2 to January 6 in Birmingham.”
KARACHI: Pakistani religio-political party Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen (MWM) on Tuesday announced it would expand its sit-in protests, currently being held in Karachi in solidarity with the violence-hit Kurram district, to other parts of Sindh as law enforcers cracked down on protesters to clear the roads for traffic.
The MWM has been leading sit-in protests at over 10 locations in Karachi since last week to protest against violence in the northwestern Kurram district. With a population of around 600,000, Kurram has been plagued by tribal and sectarian violence for decades. The region’s volatile security situation often necessitates travel in convoys escorted by security forces. However, a devastating ambush on November 21, in which gunmen killed 52 people, underscored the persistent dangers.
The attack escalated tensions in the district, resulting in violent clashes and road blockades that have severely disrupted access to essential supplies such as food, medicine, and fuel and claimed the lives of at least 136 people since November. A grand jirga— a traditional council of political and tribal elders— has been attempting to mediate between rival factions, but the unrest has spilled beyond Kurram.
“The sit-ins will continue until the issues of Parachinar are resolved,” MWM leader Allama Hasan Zafar Naqvi, referring to Kurram district’s capital city, said in a statement. “I urge people to come out of their homes. We will extend the sit-ins from Karachi to Obaro [near the border with Punjab].”
Police and Rangers personnel used tear gas to disperse protesters in Kamran Chowrangi, Gulistan-e-Jauhar, Abbas Town and Gulshan-e-Iqbal areas of Karachi on Tuesday morning. Angry demonstrators set tires ablaze and pelted stones at law enforcement personnel in response.
Numerous protesters had been arrested during the crackdown, Naqvi alleged. However, a police spokesperson declined to confirm the arrests when approached for comment.
The MWM leader accused the Sindh government of practicing “double standards,” claiming that representatives of the provincial government expressed solidarity with demonstrators while simultaneously ordering law enforcers to clear protest sites forcefully.
“Last night, Sindh government representatives came to us and the issues [caused by road blockades] were resolved,” Naqvi said. “But this morning, peaceful sit-ins were attacked.”
Karachi police chief on Monday warned demonstrators of action if the protests continued to disrupt public life. The Ahle-Sunnat Wal Jamaat (ASWJ), the MWM’s rival religious group, on Monday, threatened to hold protests at 60 locations in Karachi starting Tuesday if the MWM demonstrations did not end.
Last week, Karachi Mayor Murtaza Wahab also criticized MWM protesters for paralyzing the city.
“If the purpose of a protest is to inconvenience people, disrupt the city’s operations, block ambulances and fire brigades, or hinder police and administrative vehicles, then such actions are inappropriate,” Wahab said.
Meanwhile, the warring factions in Kurram are formally expected to reach a peace agreement today, Tuesday, as the grand jirga reconvenes, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government spokesperson said last week.
