Iran caught in the 'Guardians' web
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The curtain-raiser on the convulsions surrounding Iran’s presidential elections came a few weeks ago with the leaked interview recording of the country’s foreign minister. In the video, Mr. Javad Zarif stated that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) dragged the country into the Syrian civil war at the behest of Russia, made Iran’s diplomacy subservient to military considerations, and even attempted to scupper the nuclear deal.
The videotapes ended all speculations that Zarif would be a presidential candidate for the reformists and set the stage for defeat for the reformists in the power struggle with the clergy-backed conservatives or Principlists.
In the run up to the June 18 polls, the Guardian Council went on to disqualify all strong candidates from the Reformist and Moderate camps. This included current Vice President Eshaq Jehangiri, as well as the former Speaker of the parliament, Ali Larijani, even though he negotiated with the Chinese leadership on behalf of the regime.
This paved the way for the current Chief Justice of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, to succeed Rouhani as President. The 61-year-old Raisi rose from the ranks of ‘Revolution,’ is considered Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s favourite and aligned to the conservative power centers of the regime. After his appointment as head of the country’s judiciary, Raisi improved his public image by running anti-corruption campaigns alongside the Guards of the Revolution.
The Guardian Council also approved nominations of Raisi’s subordinates Mohsen Rezaei, former commander-in-chief of the IRGC, and also Saeed Jalili, a hardliner bitterly opposed to the nuclear deal. Both are widely expected to lose the race.
Mohsen is contesting elections for the fourth time and locally referred to as an addict of elections, sparking online jokes: ‘Elections without Mohsen Rezaei are like kebabs without onions.’
The other two independent candidates are not expected to pose any threat to Raisi either. Abdul Naser Hemmati, who headed the country’s central bank, and another public figure, Mohsen Mehr Alizadeh can at best draw thin support from the anti-Raisi bloc.
The Guardian Council’s machinations through blatant disqualifications and outright favouritism have become running jokes in Iran’s political circles and meme content on social media. In one such visual, Raisi is on a racetrack and members of the clergy are holding a rope depicting a finish line halfway down the course. Another popular joke shows Raisi competing against six other spellings of his own name.
Experts point out that Raisi’s potential election is deeply significant. More than the presidency is at stake – he is being groomed to potentially be appointed the next Supreme Leader. Currently the position is held by Ali Khamenei, an octogenarian rumoured to be unwell. For the clergy, the right choice of a successor is a key to keep the spirit of the Revolution alive.
“This election matters for the Supreme Leader because with a conservative monopoly of unelected and elected institutions, the system can focus on the issue of succession, which is critical for Iran’s political transition,” says Dr. Sanam Vakil, distinguished scholar and an expert on Iran at Chatham House.
“Raisi is on a succession shortlist because of his loyalty and proximity to the supreme leader,” she states.
With experts predicting a low turnout in the polls and an outcome anticipated to be more of the same, the presidential elections are not heralded as a new beginning. For Iranians, there will be no festive and symbolic tossing away of the dark omens of political fatigue thirteen days later.
Owais Tohid
Raisi studied in the seminaries of Qom and Kharaj, and married into an influential family who holds sway among the clergy. He is known to be an ambitious man, has trusted allies and deep ties in judiciary, the intelligence community, the Guards of Revolution and believed to have the ‘political blessings’ of the Supreme Leader. For Raisi, winning the presidency would be a major step towards the Supreme Leader position.
On the other hand, Barbara Slavin, Director of Future of Iran Initiative at Atlantic Council, says outright support for Raisi’s ‘selection’ could hamper his future chances.
“By disqualifying all his viable opponents, they cheapen his ‘win’, and ironically, could make it harder for him to become the supreme leader after Khamenei,” Slavin says.
Raisi’s path to presidential victory may be obstructed not by opponent candidates but by his own past. He is stained by his alleged involvement in executions and disappearances of thousands of political prisoners in 1988. Most of them belonged to The Peoples’ Mujahideen of Iran, leftist factions including the Fedain and the communist Tudeh Party of Iran. Raisi is referred to as “Execution Ayatollah” by Iran’s opposition political parties, and observers note that his tainted past may become a hurdle in possible future engagement with the West, including the US.
“The presidential race will do little to boost his popular legitimacy: his victory, with possibly the lowest voter turnout in the Islamic Republic’s history, would be widely viewed as engineered by the Guardian Council,” Ali Reza Eshtaghi writes in a paper recently published by the European Council on Foreign Relations.
However, western powers are pragmatic and selectively raise issues of democracy only when convenient to do so. “The conservatives being in power in Iran suits the West because everyone knows the real power lies with them anyway. So it’s better to talk to them about any forward movement in the nuclear deal or on Afghanistan or peace and security in the region,” says Riffat Masood, a former Pakistani diplomat who served as an ambassador to Iran.
Dr. Sanam Vakil also argues that a conservative victory wouldn’t see any shift in Iran’s regional policy, and the Vienna JCPOA dialogue on a nuclear deal is likely to continue.
Irrespective of the election results, Iran will remain mired in economic hardships and repression while Iranian people are desperately looking for a better economy and stability. Under harsh sanctions, Iran’s Covid-hit economy is in shambles. The inflation rate is hovering over 40 percent and unemployment is in double digits. More than half of the Iranian population is under 30 years of age, requiring an estimated million additional jobs every year.
The ruling regime understands the immense challenge this poses, even if they are not able to surmount it. To offset mounting cumulative pressure, the regime may be willing to show flexibility in its future policies, more so if it refuses to cede space to the moderates. “Preservation of the regime is the ultimate aim and for that foreign policy flexibility is admissible,” says Riffat Masood.
Iran’s regional policy revolves around its hostile policies in Syria, Yemen, and toward Saudi Arabia, while globally embroiled in a deep rooted conflict with the US.
“The question of US-Iran relations has to wait until the death of Ayotollah Khamenei who has made anti-Americanism a tenet for his rule- with enormous help from George W. Bush and Trump- who made opposition to the Islamic Republic one of the tenets of their presidencies,” says expert Barbara Slavin.
Iran’s presidential polls are thirteen days away. In the Persian New Year, Nauroz festivities culminate on the thirteenth day, called Sizda Bedar or Nature’s Day. To celebrate a new beginning, people go out and toss green sprouts in flowing water to get rid of dark energies and omens associated with the number thirteen.
With experts predicting a low turnout in the polls and an outcome anticipated to be more of the same, the presidential elections are not heralded as a new beginning. For Iranians, there will be no festive and symbolic tossing away of the dark omens of political fatigue thirteen days later.
– Owais Tohid is a leading Pakistani journalist/writer.
He tweets @OwaisTohid.
