Specter of Arctic standoff looms as melting sea ice upsets geostrategic balance 

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Updated 23 June 2021
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Specter of Arctic standoff looms as melting sea ice upsets geostrategic balance 

  • Climate change is disrupting the environmental balance of the Arctic with potential global ramifications 
  • Arctic states are jostling for control of shipping lanes, natural resources and strategic advantage as polar ice retreats

BERN, Switzerland: America is back. That was the message Joe Biden wanted to drive home during his first foreign foray as US president — an eight-day Europe tour in June.

The soft-power offensive has been welcomed by America’s European allies after four years of turbulence in transatlantic ties. But it has also brought the West’s long-simmering rivalries with Russia and China to the surface — including the possibility of a nasty confrontation over the Arctic region.

The Arctic is a physical space where geopolitics meets climate change, and where competition over access to natural resources collides with contested commercial and military shipping routes. These are matters that will have serious ramifications well beyond the handful of nations that border the North Pole.

The poles are often described as the Earth’s thermostat, reacting to even the slightest changes in sea temperature. The Arctic has warmed at twice the pace of the rest of the globe and, according to NASA, its sea ice has declined by 13.1 percent during the past decade.

Melting sea ice is contributing to rising sea levels, causing Arctic coastlines to gradually vanish. The process is being accelerated by the thawing of permafrost, which releases long-trapped pockets of carbon dioxide and methane gas into the atmosphere, contributing to climate change.

The rapid retreat of Arctic ice is opening up long-frozen sea lanes for the first time in millennia, exposing the region’s natural resources and shipping lanes to commercial and military exploitation.

According to Bloomberg, about 30 percent of undiscovered gas reserves and 13 percent of oil reserves are estimated to lie beneath the Arctic region. However, the race to claim these vast riches collides with the emerging global consensus of achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

The Arctic Council deliberated over these issues in late May when its members met in the Icelandic capital, Reykjavik. The multilateral body of eight member states bordering the Arctic region and 13 observer nations was founded 25 years ago to address such issues as the rights of indigenous groups, climate change, oil and gas development, and shipping. Its mandate does not, however, extend to the realm of defense.

When Iceland passed the two-year rotating presidency of the organization to Russia last month, divergent views and geopolitical tensions came to the fore. The summit coincided with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s first meeting with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov. The latter had stirred the pot by declaring “the Arctic is our land and our waters.




US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (L) meets with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (R) at the Harpa Concert Hall in Reykjavik, Iceland, on May 19, 2021. (Saul Loeb / Pool / AFP)

The sentiment is understandable from Lavrov’s perspective, given that Russia extracts about 90 percent of its natural gas, 17 percent of its oil, and 90 percent of its nickel from the Arctic, which also contains the majority of its platinum and palladium reserves.

The Russian economy is highly dependent on mineral extraction. In 2019 the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment estimated that oil, gas, mining and raw materials amount to about 60 percent to Russia’s gross domestic product.

Moscow and Washington have differing visions on matters concerning the Arctic, among them the fine balance between energy production, natural-resource extraction and the quest to halt climate change.

At the start of his term, Biden suspended the oil-drilling rights north of the Arctic circle that his predecessor, Donald Trump, had granted. The Kremlin, however, intends to expand its drilling operations.




A soldier stands near a Russia's Bastion mobile coastal defense missile system on the island of Alexandra Land, part of the Franz Josef Land archipelago, on May 17, 2021. (Maxime Popov / AFP)

Novatek’s LNG (liquefied natural gas) project on the Arctic Yamal peninsula is producing at 114 percent of capacity on its four trains. In March the company approved external financing for the $11 billion Arctic LNG 2 project, which will start production in 2023. The project is expected to reach a production level of 20 million tons by 2026. Fundraising efforts will take place in Russia, China, Japan and Europe.

Energy is where China enters the fray. Saudi Arabia and Russia alternate as Beijing’s largest oil supplier. In 2020, China received 16.8 percent of its crude oil from the Kingdom and 15.3 percent from Russia.

CLIMATEFACTS

Sea ice keeps polar regions cool, helps moderate global climate.

Ice surface reflects back into space 80% of the sunlight that hits it.

As sea ice melts in the summer, it exposes the dark ocean surface.

Temperatures rise as the ocean absorbs 90% of sunlight and heats up.

The poles are the regions of the Earth most sensitive to climate change.

Owing to an especially cold winter, China’s pipeline imports of natural gas via Russia’s eastern (Siberian) route reached 28.8 million cubic meters a day in early 2021 — double the 2020 contract, according to S&P Global Platts. In 2020, Russia was the sixth-largest LNG supplier to China after Australia, Qatar, the US, Malaysia and Indonesia, according to Argus.

China has become an important financier of major energy-infrastructure projects in Russia’s Arctic region and Siberia. One reason for this is that US sanctions imposed on Russia in 2014 coincided with China’s growing thirst for energy and rising affluence.

However, some Russian experts are concerned about the growing dependence on Chinese money to fund the Arctic expansion, an undertaking of vital national importance to Moscow. Arctic Council members and observers are therefore watching the Sino-Russian relationship very closely.




Russian warships at the Arctic base of Severomorsk. The changing geography of the Arctic increases the risk of confrontation between the major powers.  (AFP)

The valuable resources beneath the seafloor are not the only prize at stake in this polar scramble. The Arctic shipping route, from the Bering Strait to the Barents Sea, stretches for 5,550 kilometers and constitutes the shortest possible route between Asia and Europe.

The Northern Sea Route used to be open to ships for only 80 days of the year, frozen over for the remaining 285. Now it allows passage for 120 to 150 days, courtesy of the melting ice caps. Researchers at Kyoto University expect this time window will widen to 225 days.

The Northern Sea Route shortens the passage from China to Europe by 10 to 12 days, compared with the sea journey via the Strait of Malacca and the Suez Canal. Although the route is relatively shallow, limiting the size of vessels able to traverse it, control of it has obvious strategic and commercial benefits.

 

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During his European tour, among engagements designed to shore up Western solidarity, Biden attended the UK-hosted G7 summit in Cornwall, met with NATO chiefs in Brussels and held his first tete-a-tete with his Russian counterpart in Geneva. Relations between Vladimir Putin-led Russia and the West are currently too frosty to patch up without addressing the many underlying differences.

Take Arctic freight traffic. Putin wants to expand its volume by 2.5 times to 80 million tons by 2024. This “Polar Silk Road” would have serious ramifications far beyond the Arctic circle, placing it in direct competition with the Suez Canal and major ports from the Mediterranean and the Middle East to Southeast Asia.

There is also a defense dimension to the changing geography of the Arctic. Mikhail Gorbachev, the former president of the Soviet Union, famously called the Arctic a peaceful place. The great powers and their armed forces had little choice but to avoid creating conflict there, given the inhospitable climate and impassable sheets of ice




Russian icebreaker ships and LNG transport vessels cruise in the Arctic. (REUTERS/Olesya Astakhova)

Not so now. With sea lanes open much longer than ever before and competition over natural resources in full swing, the potential for a confrontation between the big powers, and their air and naval forces, is growing ever more likely.

Jens Stoltenberg, the secretary general of NATO, recently voiced such concerns over the mounting Russian and Chinese military presence in the region at the same time as US forces are shifting strategic emphasis toward the Arctic.

To sum up, climate change is upsetting both the environmental and strategic balance of the Arctic, with far-reaching ramifications for the hydrocarbon economy, maritime trade — and perhaps even peaceful coexistence.

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Cornelia Meyer is a Ph.D.-level economist with 30 years of experience in investment banking and industry. She is chairperson and CEO of business consultancy Meyer Resources. Twitter: @MeyerResources

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Thai PM meets army commander in attempt to defuse political crisis

Updated 26 min 27 sec ago
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Thai PM meets army commander in attempt to defuse political crisis

  • PM Paetongtarn visited troops in northeast Thailand on Friday to patch things up with Lt. Gen. Boonsin Padklang after she was caught disparaging him as an “opponent” during the call with Hun Sen

BANGKOK: Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra held make-up talks on Friday with an army commander she criticized in a leaked phone call as she struggled to defuse a crisis threatening to topple her government.
The daughter of controversial billionaire ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra and in office for less than a year, Paetongtarn is facing calls to quit or announce an election as anger flares over the call with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen.
Her main coalition partner, the conservative Bhumjaithai party, pulled out on Wednesday, saying she had insulted the country and the army and leaving her government on the point of collapse.
She suffered another blow on Friday as reports emerged that another coalition partner was threatening to quit unless she stepped down as prime minister.
The crisis has sent the Thai stock market plunging to a five-year low and comes as the kingdom struggles to fire up its sluggish economy, with US President Donald Trump’s threatened trade tariffs looming.
Paetongtarn, 38, visited troops in northeast Thailand on Friday to patch things up with Lt. Gen. Boonsin Padklang after she was caught disparaging him as an “opponent” during the call with Hun Sen.
Boonsin commands Thai forces along the border with Cambodia, where a long-running dispute flared into deadly clashes last month, and Paetongtarn’s criticism of him drew accusations of disloyalty from right-wing nationalist critics.
Paetongtarn said after their meeting that the matter was settled.
“It went very well. I’ve spoken to the commander and there’s no longer any issue,” she told reporters.
For his part, Boonsin said “everything is normal.”


The meeting with Boonsin followed a public apology from Paetongtarn — at a news conference flanked by military and police chiefs — on Thursday as pressure on her mounted.
Paetongtarn was criticized as being weak and deferential in the call with Hun Sen, a veteran politician known as a wily operator, but her comments about the army commander were potentially the most damaging to her.
Thailand’s armed forces have long played a powerful role in the kingdom’s politics and politicians are usually careful not to antagonize them.
The apology and apparent reconciliation with the army commander may not be enough to save Paetongtarn’s premiership.
The departure of Bhumjaithai has left the government’s coalition with a razor-thin majority in parliament and losing another partner would likely see it collapse.
There was a glimmer of good news for Paetongtarn on Friday morning as the conservative Democrat Party pledged to stay in the coalition.
However, Public broadcaster ThaiPBS reported that the United Thai Nation (UTN) party, which has 36 seats and is now the biggest party in the coalition after Pheu Thai, is considering quitting.
The broadcaster said UTN was going to issue an ultimatum to Paetongtarn: either she quits as premier or they withdraw, bringing down the government.
There are also suggestions of a split within UTN, but the government’s majority is now so small that it could be fatal even if only half the party’s MPs leave.


Paetongtarn may also be facing the prospect of street protests, as political activists involved in huge demonstrations that helped sink previous leaders linked to her family called for her to go.
The activists have called for a rally in central Bangkok on Saturday and another on June 28, although it remains to be seen whether Paetongtarn will survive that long.
She took office in August last year at the head of an uneasy alliance between Pheu Thai and a group of conservative, pro-military parties whose members have spent much of the past 20 years battling against her father.
Thaksin, twice elected PM, was thrown out in a military coup in 2006 and the bitter tussle between the conservative, royalist establishment and the political movement he founded has dominated Thai politics throughout that time.
Hun Sen, Cambodia’s longtime ruler who stepped down in 2023 and had close ties with Thaksin, said on Friday that the row over the leaked call had “shattered” more than “30 years of heartfelt bonds between our two families.”


Malaysian court drops money laundering charges against jailed former leader Najib Razak

Updated 33 min 7 sec ago
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Malaysian court drops money laundering charges against jailed former leader Najib Razak

  • Najib was previously convicted in a graft case tied to the 1Malaysia Development Berhad state fund
  • The scandal upended Najib’s government and he was defeated in the 2018 election

KUALA LUMPUR: A Malaysian court dropped three money laundering charges against jailed former Prime Minister Najib Razak on Friday, in a case linked to the multibillion-dollar looting of a state fund.

Najib was previously convicted in a graft case tied to the 1Malaysia Development Berhad state fund, or 1MBD, and began serving time in 2022, after losing his final appeal. He also faces other graft trials.

The High Court’s decision to drop the charges alleging Najib received 27 million ringgit ($6.3 million) in illegal proceeds to his bank accounts came after procedural delays by the prosecution, which saw the case dragging on for six years, Najib’s lawyer Muhammad Shafee Abdullah said. Prosecutors could not give the court a timeline for when they will be ready for the trial, he added.

Prosecutors reserve the right to revive charges against Najib and a discharge does not mean an acquittal, Shafee said. But Najib was happy and can now focus on the main 1MDB trial, he added.

Najib set up 1MDB shortly after taking power in 2009. Investigators allege that more than $4.5 billion was stolen from the fund and laundered by his associates to finance Hollywood films and extravagant purchases. The scandal upended Najib’s government and he was defeated in the 2018 election.

Last November, the High Court also discharged Najib and the former treasury chief in another 1MDB-linked corruption case after repeated delays by the prosecution. The pair can still be charged for the same offense in the future. In 2023, Najib was acquitted on separate charges of tampering with a government audit into 1MDB.

Najib was sentenced to 12 years in jail in his first graft trial but the sentence was halved by the Pardon Boards in 2024. Najib alleged the board had issued a home arrest order for him to complete his sentence at home, but the case is still being heard in court.

Najib awaits his verdict in another key case that ties him directly to the 1MDB scandal, which has prompted investigations in the US and several other countries.

The defense in May closed their case on four charges of abuse of power to obtain over $700 million from 1MDB that went into Najib’s bank accounts, and 21 counts of money laundering involving the same amount. Closing arguments are scheduled in October, after which the court will set a date for verdict.


Food rations are halved in one of Africa’s largest refugee camps after US aid cuts

Updated 40 min 47 sec ago
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Food rations are halved in one of Africa’s largest refugee camps after US aid cuts

  • Funding for the UN World Food Program has dropped after the Trump administration paused support in March
  • Monthly cash transfers that refugees used to buy proteins and vegetables to supplement the rice, lentils and cooking oil distributed by WFP have ended this month

KAKUMA: Martin Komol sighs as he inspects his cracked, mud-walled house that is one rain away from fully collapsing. Nothing seems to last for him and 300,000 other refugees in this remote Kakuma camp in Kenya — now, not even food rations.
Funding for the UN World Food Program has dropped after the Trump administration paused support in March, part of the widespread dismantling of foreign aid by the United States, once the world’s biggest donor.
That means Komol, a widowed father of five from Uganda, has been living on handouts from neighbors since his latest monthly ration ran out two weeks ago. He said he survives on one meal a day, sometimes a meal every two days.
“When we can’t find anyone to help us, we become sick, but when we go to the hospital, they say it’s just hunger and tell us to go back home,” the 59-year-old said. His wife is buried here. He is reluctant to return to Uganda, one of the more than 20 home countries of Kakuma’s refugees.
Food rations have been halved. Previous ration cuts led to protests in March. Monthly cash transfers that refugees used to buy proteins and vegetables to supplement the rice, lentils and cooking oil distributed by WFP have ended this month.
Each refugee now receives 3 kilograms (6 pounds) of rice per month, far below the 9 kilograms recommended by the UN for optimal nutrition. WFP hopes to receive the next donation of rice by August. That’s along with 1 kilogram of lentils and 500 milliliters of cooking oil per person.
“Come August, we are likely to see a more difficult scenario. If WFP doesn’t receive any funding between now and then, it means only a fraction of the refugees will be able to get assistance. It means only the most extremely vulnerable will be targeted,” said Colin Buleti, WFP’s head in Kakuma. WFP is seeking help from other donors.
As dust swirls along paths between the camp’s makeshift houses, the youngest children run and play, largely unaware of their parents’ fears.
But they can’t escape hunger. Komol’s 10-year-old daughter immerses herself in schoolbooks when there’s nothing to eat.
“When she was younger she used to cry, but now she tries to ask for food from the neighbors, and when she can’t get any she just sleeps hungry,” Komol said. In recent weeks, they have drunk water to try to feel full.
The shrinking rations have led to rising cases of malnutrition among children under 5 and pregnant and breastfeeding mothers.
At Kakuma’s largest hospital, run by the International Rescue Committee, children with malnutrition are given fortified formula milk.
Nutrition officer Sammy Nyang’a said some children are brought in too late and die within the first few hours of admission. The 30-bed stabilization ward admitted 58 children in March, 146 in April and 106 in May. Fifteen children died in April, up from the monthly average of five. He worries they will see more this month.
“Now with the cash transfers gone, we expect more women and children to be unable to afford a balanced diet,” Nyang’a said.
The hospital had been providing nutrient-dense porridge for children and mothers, but the flour has run out after stocks, mostly from the US, were depleted in March. A fortified peanut paste given to children who have been discharged is also running out, with current supplies available until August.
In the ward of whimpering children, Susan Martine from South Sudan cares for her 2-year-old daughter, who has sores after swelling caused by severe malnutrition.
The mother of three said her family often sleeps hungry, but her older children still receive hot lunches from a WFP school feeding program. For some children in the camp, it’s their only meal. The program also faces pressure from the aid cuts.
“I don’t know how we will survive with the little food we have received this month,” Martine said.
The funding cuts are felt beyond Kakuma’s refugee community. Businessman Chol Jook recorded monthly sales of 700,000 Kenyan shillings ($5,400) from the WFP cash transfer program and now faces losses.
Those who are hungry could slip into debt as they buy on credit, he said.


Russia sentences activist who helped Ukrainians flee war to 22 years in prison

Updated 50 min 9 sec ago
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Russia sentences activist who helped Ukrainians flee war to 22 years in prison

  • Nadezhda Rossinskaya was arrested in 2024 on charges of treason and aiding terrorist activities

LONDON: Russian activist who helped collect humanitarian aid for Ukraine and evacuate Ukrainians from the war zone was sentenced on Friday to 22 years in prison by a Moscow military court, the RIA state news agency reported.
Nadezhda Rossinskaya, also known as Nadin Geisler, ran a group called “Army of Beauties,” which said it had assisted some 25,000 people in Russian-controlled parts of Ukraine in 2022-23, according to a report last year in The Moscow Times.
Authorities arrested Geisler in February 2024 and later charged her with treason and aiding terrorist activities over a post they said she made on Instagram calling for donations to Ukraine’s Azov Battalion.
Geisler denied any wrongdoing, and her lawyer said she was not the author of the post, according to a trial transcript compiled by Mediazona, an independent Russian outlet.
Prosecutors had requested 27 years for Geisler, who is in her late 20s. Mediazona reported that she had asked the court to imprison her for 27 years and one day, so that her prison term could surpass that of Darya Trepova, a Russian woman jailed for delivering a bomb that killed a pro-war blogger in 2023.
Trepova’s sentence, handed down last year, was the longest given to any woman in modern Russian history.
Prosecutions for terrorism, espionage and cooperation with a foreign state have risen sharply in Russia since the start of the full-scale war in Ukraine over three years ago. Pervy Otdel, a Russian lawyers’ association, says 359 people were convicted of such crimes in 2024.


Pro-Palestinian activists say they damaged planes at UK military base

Updated 20 June 2025
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Pro-Palestinian activists say they damaged planes at UK military base

  • Campaign group Palestine Action said that its activists had entered the Brize Norton base in Oxfordshire and escaped undetected

LONDON: Pro-Palestinian activists in Britain said they had broken into a Royal Air Force base in central England on Friday and damaged two military aircraft.

The campaign group Palestine Action said that its activists had entered the Brize Norton base in Oxfordshire and escaped undetected.

“Flights depart daily from the base to RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus,” the group said on X accompanied by video footage. “From Cyprus, British planes collect intelligence, refuel fighter jets and transport weapons to commit genocide in Gaza.”

There was no immediate response from Britain’s Ministry of Defense.