BRUSSELS: The World Health Organization (WHO) forecasts that people most vulnerable to COVID-19, such as the elderly, will need to get an annual vaccine booster to be protected against variants, an internal document seen by Reuters shows.
The estimate is included in a report, which is to be discussed on Thursday at a board meeting of Gavi, a vaccine alliance that co-leads the WHO’s COVID-19 vaccine program COVAX. The forecast is subject to changes and is also paired with two other less likely scenarios.
Vaccine makers Moderna Inc. and Pfizer Inc, with its German partner BioNTech, have been vocal in their view that the world will soon need booster shots to maintain high levels of immunity, but the evidence for this is still unclear.
The document shows that the WHO considers annual boosters for high-risk individuals as its “indicative” baseline scenario, and boosters every two years for the general population.
It does not say how these conclusions were reached, but shows that under the base scenario new variants would continue to emerge and vaccines would be regularly updated to meet these threats.
The UN agency declined to comment on the content of the internal document.
A spokesperson for Gavi said COVAX was planning to take a wide range of scenarios into consideration.
The document, which is dated June 8 and is still a “work in progress,” also predicts under the base case that 12 billion COVID-19 vaccine doses will be produced globally next year.
That would be slightly higher than the forecast of 11 billion doses for this year cited by the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers & Associations (IFPMA), signalling that the UN agency does not expect a significant ramp-up of vaccine production in 2022.
The document predicts manufacturing problems, regulatory approval issues and “transition away from some technology platforms” as potential drags on supplies next year.
It does not signal which technologies could be phased out, but the European Union, which has reserved the world’s largest volume of COVID-19 vaccines, has bet heavily on shots using messenger RNA (mRNA) technology, such as those by Pfizer and Moderna, and has forgone some purchases of viral vector vaccines from AstraZeneca Plc and Johnson & Johnson.
The scenarios will be used to define the WHO’s global vaccination strategy and the forecasts may change as new data emerges on the role of boosters and the duration of vaccine protection, Gavi says in another document, also seen by Reuters.
So far about 2.5 billion doses have been administered worldwide, mostly in rich countries where over half of the population has received at least one dose, whereas in many poorer countries less than 1 percent has been vaccinated, according to Gavi’s estimates.
See graphic: COVID-19 global vaccination tracker: https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/vaccinat...
This gap could widen next year under the WHO’s most pessimistic forecast, as the need for annual boosters could once again push poorer nations to the back of the queue.
In its worst-case scenario, the UN agency says production would be 6 billion doses next year, due to stringent regulation for new shots and manufacturing issues with existing ones.
That could be compounded by the need for annual boosters for the entire world, and not just the most vulnerable, to combat variants and limited duration of protection.
In the more optimistic situation, all vaccines in the pipeline would get authorized and production capacity would ramp up to about 16 billion doses to meet demand. Vaccines would also be shared equitably across the world.
There would be no need for boosters as vaccines would show strong efficacy against variants and long protection.
WHO estimates COVID-19 boosters needed yearly for most vulnerable
https://arab.news/v76mv
WHO estimates COVID-19 boosters needed yearly for most vulnerable
- WHO considers annual boosters for high-risk individuals as its "indicative" baseline scenario
- Spokesperson for Gavi said COVAX was planning to take a wide range of scenarios into consideration
Regime change in Tehran? Putin says Iran is consolidating around its leaders
- “We see that today in Iran, with all the complexity of the internal political processes taking place there...that there is a consolidation of society around the country’s political leadership,” Putin said
ST PETERSBURG, Russia: Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that Iranian society was consolidating around the Islamic Republic’s leadership when asked by Reuters if he agreed with Israeli statements about possible regime change in Tehran.
Putin was speaking as Trump kept the world guessing whether the US would join Israel’s bombardment of Iranian nuclear and missile sites and as residents of Iran’s capital streamed out of the city on the sixth day of the air assault.
Putin said all sides should look for ways to end hostilities in a way that ensured both Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear power and Israel’s right to the unconditional security of the Jewish state.
Asked about Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s remarks that regime change in Iran could be the result of Israel’s military attacks and US President Donald Trump’s demand for Iran’s unconditional surrender, Putin said that one should always look at whether or not the main aim was being achieved before starting something.
“We see that today in Iran, with all the complexity of the internal political processes taking place there...that there is a consolidation of society around the country’s political leadership,” Putin told senior news agency editors in the northern Russian city of St. Petersburg.
Putin said he had personally been in touch with Trump and with Netanyahu, and that he had conveyed Moscow’s ideas on resolving the conflict.
He said Iran’s underground uranium enrichment facilities were still intact.
“These underground factories, they exist, nothing has happened to them,” Putin said, adding that all sides should seek a resolution that ensured the interests of both Iran and Israel.
“It seems to me that it would be right for everyone to look for ways to end hostilities and find ways for all parties to this conflict to come to an agreement with each other,” Putin said. “In my opinion, in general, such a solution can be found.”
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on Wednesday
that Moscow was telling the United States not to strike Iran because it would radically destabilize the Middle East.
A spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry also warned that Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclar facilities risked triggering a nuclear catastrophe.
US starts evacuating some diplomats from its embassy in Israel as Iran conflict intensifies
- Those warnings have increased as the conflict has intensified, with the embassy in Jerusalem authorizing the departure of nonessential staff and families over the weekend
WASHINGTON: The State Department has begun evacuating nonessential diplomats and their families from the US embassy in Israel as hostilities between Israel and Iran intensify and President Donald Trump warns of the possibility of getting directly involved in the conflict.
A government plane evacuated a number of diplomats and family members who had asked to leave the country Wednesday, two US officials said. That came shortly before US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee announced on X that the embassy was making plans for evacuation flights and ships for private American citizens.
The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to describe sensitive diplomatic movements.
“Given the ongoing situation and as part of the embassy’s authorized departure status, mission personnel have begun departing Israel through a variety of means,” the State Department said.
“Authorized departure” means that nonessential staff and the families of all personnel are eligible to leave at government expense.
There was no indication of how many diplomats and family members departed on the flight or how many may have left by land routes to Jordan or Egypt.
The evacuations, comments from the White House and shifting of American military aircraft and warships into and around the Middle East have heightened the possibility of deepening US involvement in a conflict that threatens to spill into a wider regional war.
Trump has issued increasingly pointed warnings about the US joining Israel in striking at Iran’s nuclear program, saying Wednesday that he doesn’t want to carry out a US strike on the Islamic Republic but suggesting he is ready to act if it’s necessary.
The State Department also has steadily ramped up its warnings to American citizens in Israel and throughout the region, including in Iraq.
Last week, ahead of Israel’s first strikes on Iran, the department and the Pentagon put out notices announcing that the US embassy in Baghdad had ordered all nonessential personnel to leave and that the Defense Department had “authorized the voluntary departure of military dependents from locations across the Middle East.
Those warnings have increased as the conflict has intensified, with the embassy in Jerusalem authorizing the departure of nonessential staff and families over the weekend and ordering remaining personnel to shelter in place until further notice.
The embassy has been closed since Monday and will remain shut through Friday.
Iran says committed to diplomacy but acts in ‘self-defense’ against Israel
TEHRAN: Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Thursday his country has remained committed to “diplomacy” but will continue to act in “self-defense” following Israel’s surprise attack nearly a week ago.
“Iran solely acts in self-defense. Even in the face of the most outrageous aggression against our people, Iran has so far only retaliated against the Israeli regime and not those who are aiding and abetting it,” said Araghchi in a post on X.
“With the exception of the illegitimate, genocidal and occupying Israeli regime, we remain committed to diplomacy,” he added.
Putin says NATO rearmament not a ‘threat’ to Russia
- “We will counter all threats that arise. There is no doubt about that,” Putin said
- The military alliance is pushing members to increase their defense spending to five percent of GDP
SAINT PETERSBURG: Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that NATO’s push to ramp up defense spending was not a “threat” to Russia, as Moscow had all the weapons it needed to defend itself.
The military alliance is pushing members to increase their defense spending to five percent of GDP, under pressure from US President Donald Trump.
“We do not consider any rearmament by NATO to be a threat to the Russian Federation, because we are self-sufficient in terms of ensuring our own security,” Putin told reporters, including AFP, at a televised press conference in Saint Petersburg.
He added that Russia was “constantly modernizing our armed forces and defensive capabilities.”
Though he conceded higher spending by NATO would create some “specific” challenges for Russia, the Kremlin leader said it makes “no sense” for NATO members themselves.
“We will counter all threats that arise. There is no doubt about that,” he said.
Putin has cast his offensive in Ukraine as part of a wider conflict between Russia and NATO.
Kyiv is seeking security guarantees from NATO as part of any deal to end the fighting, more than three years after Russia ordered its full-scale military offensive.
Trump rebuffs Putin offer to mediate Iran-Israel truce
- “He actually offered to help mediate. I said, ‘Do me a favor, mediate your own’,” Trump said
WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump appeared Wednesday to rebuff Vladimir Putin’s offer to mediate in the Israel-Iran conflict, saying the Russian president should end his own war in Ukraine first.
“I spoke to him yesterday and... he actually offered to help mediate, I said ‘do me a favor, mediate your own,’” Trump told reporters as he unveiled a giant new flag pole at the White House.
“Let’s mediate Russia first, okay? I said, Vladimir, let’s mediate Russia first, you can worry about this later.”
But Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov disputed the timing that Trump gave for the call.
“He (Trump) was speaking figuratively. Life is so eventful right now that looking back a few days is like looking back to yesterday,” Peskov told Russian state news agency TASS.
Trump and the Kremlin both previously said on Saturday that the two leaders had spoken that day, with the US president saying Putin had called to wish him a happy 79th birthday.
Later on Wednesday, Trump said a change in Iran’s government “could happen,” and also indicated that negotiations could be on the horizon, without giving details.
“They want to meet, they want to come to the White House — I may do that,” Trump told reporters.
Trump meanwhile insisted that the stalled peace talks to end the Ukraine war were “going to work out” despite Moscow stepping up attacks.
The US president had vowed to end the war within 24 hours of taking office and made a major pivot toward Putin, but talks have so far made little progress.
Trump described the Ukraine war, sparked by Russia’s invasion of its pro-Western neighbor in 2022, as “so stupid.”
