Will Biden’s Afghanistan withdrawal trigger a violent new Great Game?

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Updated 17 July 2021
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Will Biden’s Afghanistan withdrawal trigger a violent new Great Game?

  • Security vacuum being formed by the exit of US and NATO forces creates opportunities for regional powers
  • Russia, Central Asian countries, Iran, China and India have a stake in what comes next in Afghanistan

BERN, Switzerland: Afghanistan is no stranger to foreign interference. In the 19th century, Britain and Russia sparred for control over the ancient terrain in a shadow match popularly known as the Great Game.

Today, the game continues, only now it has many more players, and the stakes are arguably far higher.

After 20 years in Afghanistan, America’s longest war is finally drawing to a close. But for the Afghan people, whose war began decades before US boots even touched the ground, the prospect of peace seems a very long way off as their sense of certainty and security once again unravels.

As US and NATO forces pull out, people within and outside Afghanistan alike have voiced concern about the cohesion of the country in the wake of soaring ethnic and tribal tensions, waves of troop surrenders and a weakened central government. 

Nick Carter, Britain’s chief of the defense staff, has been quoted as saying it is “plausible” that the Afghan state would collapse without international forces there.

Unlike the Iraq invasion of 2003, Afghanistan was often viewed as “the good war” — emancipating the Afghan people, particularly women, from the cruelties of Taliban misrule. And yet, with every passing day, a resurgent Taliban is seizing control over ever more territory.

Furthermore, the economic gains of the past 20 years have been modest at best. The World Bank put the country’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 at $19.8 billion — just slightly ahead of Mali, Gabon, and Burkina Faso. Per capita GDP was $507, near the bottom of global rankings.

The Afghan economy remains largely dependent on overseas aid. Some 44 percent of the population works in agriculture, while 60 percent derive at least part of their income from farming. Private-sector development has been hampered by Afghanistan’s chronic security deficiencies.




US Army soldiers from 2-506 Infantry 101st Airborne Division and Afghan National Army soldiers race to get out of the way of a CH-47 Chinook helicopter landing in hostile territory during the launch of Operation Radu Bark VI in the Spira mountains in Khost province, five kms from the Afghan-Pakistan Border. (AFP/File Photo)

To trace the genesis of the current conflict, it is necessary to rewind to the events of 1979, when Soviet tanks rumbled across the Oxus River to help shore up a fractious communist regime in Kabul. When a decade-long mujahideen rebellion, backed by the US and its allies, finally sent the Russians packing in 1989, a bloody civil war ensued, culminating in the rise of the Taliban.

The Taliban regime lasted five brutal years, sending the country back to the dark ages. It was from his hideout in Afghanistan that Osama bin Laden masterminded the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks. When the regime in Kabul refused to hand him over, the US quickly invaded and removed the Taliban from power.

Fast forward to 2021, and NATO forces are themselves withdrawing in a manner similar to their erstwhile Soviet opponents before them. US President Joe Biden has assured the American people their troops will be home by Aug. 31.

The political upheavals since 1979 have led to flights of Afghans to neighboring countries in search of safety and economic security. According to estimates from the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), there are 3.5 million Afghan refugees — 90 percent of them hosted by Pakistan and Iran and 65 percent of them children, creating what many are calling a lost generation.




Farzana, who fled her village in Helmand province when it was taken over by the Taliban earlier this year, waits to see a doctor at a mobile clinic for women and children set up at the residence of a local elder in Yarmuhamad village, near Lashkar Gah in Helmand province. (AFP/File Photo)

The UNHCR has given warning of a fresh wave of displacement if the security situation deteriorates any further in the wake of the NATO withdrawal. The agency counted 1.44 million Afghan refugees in Pakistan as of July this year. Since January alone, 224,000 more have crossed the Pakistani frontier. Islamabad has said it simply cannot take any more.

Refugees place a significant strain on host countries — and few more than Pakistan, where per capita GDP in 2020 stood at around $1,170 and fiscal deficit was 8.1 percent. This has no doubt grown worse under the pressures of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic.

Pakistan’s porous border with Afghanistan has been exploited by Taliban fighters, Al-Qaeda operatives, and all manner of smugglers and bandits. The resulting violence and lawlessness have taken their toll on the economy and local people. In Balochistan and Sindh, a flood of drugs and arms has had a disintegrating effect on vulnerable sections of society.

As a strategic ally in America’s war on terror, Pakistan has often been lavished with Western aid, but has also been penalized for hosting Islamic militants of every stripe within its borders.




An Afghan National Army (ANA) helicopter takes off inside the Bagram US air base after all US and NATO troops left, some 70 Kms north of Kabul on July 5, 2021. (AFP)

From a Pakistani perspective, which way this pendulum swings appears to depend on Washington’s relations with India, which took a keen interest in the reconstruction of war-torn Afghanistan to counter Pakistani influence.

Iran, for its part, hosts roughly 980,000 documented Afghan refugees. When the undocumented are included, the number swells to 1.5 million. For sanctions-crippled Tehran, this is a huge economic burden.

Per capita GDP in Iran fell from $6,950 to $5,940 between 2017 and 2020, according to Trading Economics. But unlike Pakistan, the government at the very least has the means to regulate its borders.

The regime is also known to have used young Shiite Afghans to fight its battles in Syria under the banner of the Fatemiyoun division. It also holds a significant stake in the local economy of Afghanistan’s western province of Herat.

Given its interest in Afghanistan’s fortunes, Iran is now reportedly in negotiations with both the Taliban and the government in Kabul.




An Afghan National Army (ANA) soldier stands guard at a gate of a hospital inside the Bagram US air base after all US and NATO troops left, some 70 Km north of Kabul on July 5, 2021. (AFP)

Afghanistan’s northern neighbors Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, meanwhile, are also concerned about a potential wave of refugees. Their economies would have a hard time absorbing such an influx given their structural difficulties and relatively low median per capita GDP in 2019 of $2,465, $3,580, and $8,005, respectively.

All three countries have held consultations with the local power broker, Russia, on the economic and security ramifications of the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan.

Zamir Kabulov, the Russian deputy foreign minister and special envoy for Afghanistan, last week met with Taliban leaders, who assured him they would respect the territorial integrity of the former Soviet republics should they retake power.

Then there is China — a nation with major investments, and ambitions, in the region.

Beijing believes the NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan is premature — unsurprising, given it is overseeing investments worth more than $60 billion in the China Pakistan Economic Corridor, which links the Middle Kingdom to the Baloch deep-sea port of Gwadar.




Taliban co-founder Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar (C) and other members of the Taliban delegation arrive to attend an international conference on Afghanistan over the peaceful solution to the conflict in Moscow on March 18, 2021. (AFP/File Photo)

China also has sizable investments in the Central Asian republics, which supply it with gas and minerals, and which are also part of its Belt and Road Initiative, as is Iran. Wang Yi, the Chinese foreign minister, is currently visiting Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan to take the regional pulse.

In Afghanistan itself, China had signed a $2.8 billion deal to exploit a copper deposit in Mes Aynak, southeast of Kabul, and in 2019 imported Afghan pine nuts worth $40 million. But, overall, China’s involvement in reconstruction projects has been modest and it has thrown little money into the Afghan economy.

The Taliban has assured China its investments in the country are more than welcome. Habitually cautious Beijing is nevertheless concerned about the rapidly changing facts on the ground.

With so many regional players having a stake in what comes next for Afghanistan, there is more than a mere whiff of the Great Game about the period ahead. Indeed, the withdrawal of NATO troops will leave a geopolitical vacuum that many players are now eager to fill.

In a commentary on Thursday, Indian strategic expert and syndicated columnist, Brahma Chellaney, drew an analogy between Afghanistan and Vietnam. He said: “Recall the last time the US left a war unfinished: In 1973, it hastily abandoned its allies in South Vietnam. The next year, 90,000 South Vietnamese soldiers and civilians were reportedly killed as a result of the conflict, making it the deadliest year of the entire Vietnam War.”

If the Taliban retakes power or engages the Afghan government in a prolonged and savage conflict, there will be serious political, economic and humanitarian ramifications for Afghanistan’s neighbors, especially those with ethnic ties to the rainbow of cultures that make up Afghan society.

But there is far more at stake for the Afghan people than the interests and investments of foreign states. The last 20 years have seen the creation of an active civil society in Afghanistan, including a vibrant free press and active women’s representation.

On the possibility of those gains evaporating soon, former US President George W. Bush, who deployed American forces to the Middle East in the wake of the 9/11 attacks, said: “I’m afraid Afghan women and girls are going to suffer unspeakable harm.”

Every kilometer the Taliban advances toward Kabul, the faster the worst-case scenario unfolds for the region.

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* Cornelia Meyer is a Ph.D.-level economist with 30 years of experience in investment banking and industry. She is chairperson and CEO of business consultancy Meyer Resources. Twitter: @MeyerResources


Hotels and homes evacuated on Greek island of Crete as wildfire burns out of control

Updated 8 sec ago
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Hotels and homes evacuated on Greek island of Crete as wildfire burns out of control

ATHENS, Greece: A fast-moving wildfire whipped by gale-force winds burned through the night and into Thursday on Greece’s southern island of Crete, prompting the evacuation of more than 1,500 people from hotels and homes.
The fire department said 230 firefighters backed up by 10 water-dropping aircraft were battling the flames, which have burned through forest and farmland in Crete’s Ierapetra area on the island’s southern coast. Two people were evacuated by boat overnight, while six private boats were on standby in case further evacuations by sea became necessary, the coast guard said.
Homes were reported damaged as flames swept through hillside forests, fanned by strong winds.
“It’s a very difficult situation. The fire is very hard to contain. Right now, they cannot contain it,” Nektarios Papadakis, a civil protection official at the regional authority, told The Associated Press overnight.
“The tourists who were moved out are all okay. They have been taken to an indoor basketball arena and hotels in other regions of the island,” he said.
The Fire Service and a civil protection agency issued mobile phone alerts for the evacuations and appealed to residents not to return to try to save their property.
As fires crested ridgelines and edged toward residential areas, the blaze sent clouds of ash into the night sky, illuminated by the headlights of emergency vehicles and water trucks that lined the coastal road near the resorts of Ferma and Achlia on the southeast of Crete.
Several residents were treated for breathing difficulties, officials said, but there were no immediate reports of serious injuries.
Crete is one of Greece’s most popular destinations for both foreign and domestic tourists.
The risk of wildfires remained very high across Crete and parts of southern Greece Thursday, according to a daily bulletin issued by the Fire Service.
Wildfires are frequent in the country during its hot, dry summers, and the fire department has already tackled dozens across Greece so far this year.
In 2018, a massive fire swept through the seaside town of Mati, east of Athens, trapping people in their homes and on roads as they tried to flee. More than 100 died, including some who drowned while trying to swim away from the flames.

Ryanair cancels 170 flights due to French air traffic controllers strikes

Updated 29 min 4 sec ago
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Ryanair cancels 170 flights due to French air traffic controllers strikes

Ryanair said it was forced to cancel 170 flights affecting over 30,000 passengers due to a national strike by air traffic controllers in France, planned on Thursday and Friday.
“In addition to flights to/from France being canceled, this strike will also affect all French overflights,” the Irish airline said in a statement.

Thailand set for another acting PM after cabinet reshuffle

Updated 03 July 2025
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Thailand set for another acting PM after cabinet reshuffle

  • Power passed to transport minister and deputy prime minister Suriya Jungrungreangkit who took office for only one full day
  • The revolving door of leadership comes as the kingdom is battling to revive a spluttering economy and secure a US trade deal averting President Donald Trump’s looming threat of a 36 percent tariff

Bangkok: Thailand’s king is scheduled Thursday to swear in a new cabinet in a reshuffle that will see a third person in a week take on the role as the country’s prime minister.

The Southeast Asian nation’s top office was plunged into turmoil on Tuesday when the Constitutional Court suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra pending an ethics probe which could take months.

Power passed to transport minister and deputy prime minister Suriya Jungrungreangkit who took office for only one full day, as the bombshell was dropped in an awkward interim ahead of the reshuffle.

When former defense minister Phumtham Wechayachai is sworn into his new position as interior minister he will also take on a deputy prime minister role outranking Suriya’s — thus becoming the acting premier.

Before Paetongtarn was ousted she assigned herself the role of culture minister in the new cabinet, meaning she is set to keep a perch in the upper echelons of power.

She arrived at the Government House on Thursday morning for a group portrait before heading to the Grand Palace to meet King Maha Vajiralongkorn for the closed-door oath-taking.

The newly-appointed cabinet is set to hold its first meeting Thursday afternoon, with a royal statement expected in the evening.

The revolving door of leadership comes as the kingdom is battling to revive a spluttering economy and secure a US trade deal averting President Donald Trump’s looming threat of a 36 percent tariff.

Phumtham is considered a loyal lieutenant to the suspended Paetongtarn and her father Thaksin Shinawatra, the powerful patriarch of a dynasty which has dominated Thai 21st-century politics.

Thaksin-linked parties have been jousting with the pro-military, pro-conservative establishment since the early 2000s, but analysts say the family’s political brand has now entered decline.

The 71-year-old Phumtham earned the nickname “Big Comrade” for his association with a left-wing youth movement of the 1970s, but transitioned to politics through a role in Thaksin’s telecoms empire.

In previous cabinets he held the defense and commerce portfolios, and spent a spell as acting prime minister after a crisis engulfed the top office last year.

Paetongtarn has been hobbled over a longstanding territorial dispute between Thailand and Cambodia, which boiled over into cross-border clashes in May, killing one Cambodian soldier.

When she made a diplomatic call to Cambodian ex-leader Hun Sen, she called him “uncle” and referred to a Thai military commander as her “opponent,” according to a leaked recording causing widespread backlash.

A conservative party abandoned her ruling coalition — sparking the cabinet reshuffle — accusing her of kowtowing to Cambodia and undermining the military.

The Constitutional Court said there was “sufficient cause to suspect” Paetongtarn breached ministerial ethics in the diplomatic spat.
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South Korea’s leader says trade deal with US remains unclear ahead of Trump’s deadline

Updated 03 July 2025
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South Korea’s leader says trade deal with US remains unclear ahead of Trump’s deadline

  • Lee said the tariff negotiations with the US have been “clearly not easy”
  • Trump’s 90-day pause in global reciprocal tariffs is set to expire on July 9, potentially exposing South Korean products to 25 percent tax rates

SEOUL, South Korea: South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said that it remained unclear whether Seoul and Washington could conclude their tariff negotiations by the deadline set by President Donald Trump for next week, noting Thursday that both nations were still working to clarify their positions and identify areas of agreement.

Speaking at his first news conference since taking office last month, Lee also reiterated his intentions to improve badly frayed ties with North Korea, though he acknowledged that mutual distrust between the Koreas is too deep to heal anytime soon.

Trump’s tariff hikes and other “America First” policies are major challenges for Lee’s month-old government, as are North Korea’s expanding nuclear program and domestic economic woes. Lee, a liberal, came to power after winning a snap presidential election caused by the ouster of conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol over his ill-fated imposition of martial law in December.

Lee said the tariff negotiations with the US have been “clearly not easy” and stressed that the countries must reach mutually beneficial outcomes.

“It’s difficult to say with certainty whether we will be able to reach a conclusion by July 8. We are now doing our best,” Lee said. ”What we need is a truly reciprocal outcome that benefits both sides and works for everyone, but so far, both sides are still trying to define exactly what they want.”

Trump’s 90-day pause in global reciprocal tariffs is set to expire on July 9, potentially exposing South Korean products to 25 percent tax rates.

Washington has separately been seeking higher duties on specific products such as automobiles and semiconductors, which are key exports for South Korea’s trade-dependent economy. There are growing concerns in Seoul that Trump may also demand a broader deal requiring South Korea to pay significantly more for the 28,000 US troops stationed on the peninsula to deter North Korean threats.

Lee has consistently urged patience on tariffs, arguing that rushing to secure an early deal would not serve the national interest. His trade minister, Yeo Han-koo, was reportedly arranging a visit to Washington for possible meetings with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.

On North Korea, Lee said he would seek to restore long-dormant talks with North Korea, whose expanding military cooperation with Russia pose major security concerns to their neighbors.

“I think we should improve relations with North Korea based on a reliable coordination and consultation between South Korea and the US,” Lee said. “But I expect that won’t be easy as mutual antagonism and distrust are too serious.”

Lee previously faced criticism that he was tilting toward North Korea and China and away from the US and Japan. But since the election, Lee has repeatedly vowed pragmatic diplomacy, saying he would bolster the alliance with the US while also seeking to repair ties with North Korea, China and Russia. Some critics say it’s too difficult to satisfy all parties.

Lee’s government has made proactive efforts to build trust with North Korea, halting frontline anti-Pyongyang propaganda broadcasts and taking steps to ban activists from flying balloons carrying propaganda leaflets across the border.

North Korea hasn’t publicly responded to the conciliatory gestures by Trump and Lee, but officials said North Korean propaganda broadcasts have since been unheard in South Korean border towns.

Lee said he’s been talking with his presidential security and intelligence officials about how to revive talks with North Korea but didn’t elaborate.

Trump has also expressed intent to resume diplomacy with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Lee has said he would support Trump’s push.

North Korea has refused talks with the US and South Korea since earlier Trump-Kim nuclear talks collapsed in 2019. North Korea is now pursuing relations with Russia, supplying troops and weapons to support its war against Ukraine in return for economic and military assistance.


Ukrainian drone attack kills one in Russia’s Lipetsk, regional governor says

Updated 03 July 2025
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Ukrainian drone attack kills one in Russia’s Lipetsk, regional governor says

  • The debris fell on a residential building in the district surrounding the regional capital

A woman in her 70s was killed, and two other people injured, by falling debris from a destroyed Ukrainian drone in Russia’s southwestern region of Lipetsk, regional governor Igor Artamonov said early on Thursday.

The debris fell on a residential building in the district surrounding the regional capital, killing the woman and injuring two more, Artamonov said on the Telegram messaging app.

“Signals about falling debris are coming from various areas,” Artamonov added. “Rescue services and emergency agencies are working in an enhanced mode.”

The Russian defense ministry said that it destroyed 10 Ukrainian drones overnight over the Lipetsk region and 69 in total over Russian territory and the Crimean Peninsula. The ministry reports only how many drones its forces destroy, not how many Ukraine launches.

Artamonov said in another post that an apartment building under construction in the city of Yelets in the Lipetsk region was damaged as result of an attack and that a small fire broke out at a nearby parking lot.

The full damage were not immediately known. There was no immediate comment from Ukraine about the attack.

Both sides deny targeting civilians in their strikes during the war that Russia launched against Ukraine more than three years ago. But thousands of civilians have died in the conflict, the vast majority of them Ukrainian.

Ukraine has launched multiple air strikes into Lipetsk, a strategically important region with an air base that is the chief training center for the Russian Aerospace Forces.

Kyiv has been attacking Russian air bases to reduce Moscow’s ability to use its warplanes to strike targets in Ukraine and hammer front lines with guided bombs and missiles. In August, the Ukrainian military said it had hit the Lipetsk airfield, damaging stockpiles of guided bombs and causing a series of explosions.