Will Biden’s Afghanistan withdrawal trigger a violent new Great Game?

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Updated 17 July 2021
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Will Biden’s Afghanistan withdrawal trigger a violent new Great Game?

  • Security vacuum being formed by the exit of US and NATO forces creates opportunities for regional powers
  • Russia, Central Asian countries, Iran, China and India have a stake in what comes next in Afghanistan

BERN, Switzerland: Afghanistan is no stranger to foreign interference. In the 19th century, Britain and Russia sparred for control over the ancient terrain in a shadow match popularly known as the Great Game.

Today, the game continues, only now it has many more players, and the stakes are arguably far higher.

After 20 years in Afghanistan, America’s longest war is finally drawing to a close. But for the Afghan people, whose war began decades before US boots even touched the ground, the prospect of peace seems a very long way off as their sense of certainty and security once again unravels.

As US and NATO forces pull out, people within and outside Afghanistan alike have voiced concern about the cohesion of the country in the wake of soaring ethnic and tribal tensions, waves of troop surrenders and a weakened central government. 

Nick Carter, Britain’s chief of the defense staff, has been quoted as saying it is “plausible” that the Afghan state would collapse without international forces there.

Unlike the Iraq invasion of 2003, Afghanistan was often viewed as “the good war” — emancipating the Afghan people, particularly women, from the cruelties of Taliban misrule. And yet, with every passing day, a resurgent Taliban is seizing control over ever more territory.

Furthermore, the economic gains of the past 20 years have been modest at best. The World Bank put the country’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 at $19.8 billion — just slightly ahead of Mali, Gabon, and Burkina Faso. Per capita GDP was $507, near the bottom of global rankings.

The Afghan economy remains largely dependent on overseas aid. Some 44 percent of the population works in agriculture, while 60 percent derive at least part of their income from farming. Private-sector development has been hampered by Afghanistan’s chronic security deficiencies.




US Army soldiers from 2-506 Infantry 101st Airborne Division and Afghan National Army soldiers race to get out of the way of a CH-47 Chinook helicopter landing in hostile territory during the launch of Operation Radu Bark VI in the Spira mountains in Khost province, five kms from the Afghan-Pakistan Border. (AFP/File Photo)

To trace the genesis of the current conflict, it is necessary to rewind to the events of 1979, when Soviet tanks rumbled across the Oxus River to help shore up a fractious communist regime in Kabul. When a decade-long mujahideen rebellion, backed by the US and its allies, finally sent the Russians packing in 1989, a bloody civil war ensued, culminating in the rise of the Taliban.

The Taliban regime lasted five brutal years, sending the country back to the dark ages. It was from his hideout in Afghanistan that Osama bin Laden masterminded the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks. When the regime in Kabul refused to hand him over, the US quickly invaded and removed the Taliban from power.

Fast forward to 2021, and NATO forces are themselves withdrawing in a manner similar to their erstwhile Soviet opponents before them. US President Joe Biden has assured the American people their troops will be home by Aug. 31.

The political upheavals since 1979 have led to flights of Afghans to neighboring countries in search of safety and economic security. According to estimates from the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), there are 3.5 million Afghan refugees — 90 percent of them hosted by Pakistan and Iran and 65 percent of them children, creating what many are calling a lost generation.




Farzana, who fled her village in Helmand province when it was taken over by the Taliban earlier this year, waits to see a doctor at a mobile clinic for women and children set up at the residence of a local elder in Yarmuhamad village, near Lashkar Gah in Helmand province. (AFP/File Photo)

The UNHCR has given warning of a fresh wave of displacement if the security situation deteriorates any further in the wake of the NATO withdrawal. The agency counted 1.44 million Afghan refugees in Pakistan as of July this year. Since January alone, 224,000 more have crossed the Pakistani frontier. Islamabad has said it simply cannot take any more.

Refugees place a significant strain on host countries — and few more than Pakistan, where per capita GDP in 2020 stood at around $1,170 and fiscal deficit was 8.1 percent. This has no doubt grown worse under the pressures of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic.

Pakistan’s porous border with Afghanistan has been exploited by Taliban fighters, Al-Qaeda operatives, and all manner of smugglers and bandits. The resulting violence and lawlessness have taken their toll on the economy and local people. In Balochistan and Sindh, a flood of drugs and arms has had a disintegrating effect on vulnerable sections of society.

As a strategic ally in America’s war on terror, Pakistan has often been lavished with Western aid, but has also been penalized for hosting Islamic militants of every stripe within its borders.




An Afghan National Army (ANA) helicopter takes off inside the Bagram US air base after all US and NATO troops left, some 70 Kms north of Kabul on July 5, 2021. (AFP)

From a Pakistani perspective, which way this pendulum swings appears to depend on Washington’s relations with India, which took a keen interest in the reconstruction of war-torn Afghanistan to counter Pakistani influence.

Iran, for its part, hosts roughly 980,000 documented Afghan refugees. When the undocumented are included, the number swells to 1.5 million. For sanctions-crippled Tehran, this is a huge economic burden.

Per capita GDP in Iran fell from $6,950 to $5,940 between 2017 and 2020, according to Trading Economics. But unlike Pakistan, the government at the very least has the means to regulate its borders.

The regime is also known to have used young Shiite Afghans to fight its battles in Syria under the banner of the Fatemiyoun division. It also holds a significant stake in the local economy of Afghanistan’s western province of Herat.

Given its interest in Afghanistan’s fortunes, Iran is now reportedly in negotiations with both the Taliban and the government in Kabul.




An Afghan National Army (ANA) soldier stands guard at a gate of a hospital inside the Bagram US air base after all US and NATO troops left, some 70 Km north of Kabul on July 5, 2021. (AFP)

Afghanistan’s northern neighbors Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, meanwhile, are also concerned about a potential wave of refugees. Their economies would have a hard time absorbing such an influx given their structural difficulties and relatively low median per capita GDP in 2019 of $2,465, $3,580, and $8,005, respectively.

All three countries have held consultations with the local power broker, Russia, on the economic and security ramifications of the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan.

Zamir Kabulov, the Russian deputy foreign minister and special envoy for Afghanistan, last week met with Taliban leaders, who assured him they would respect the territorial integrity of the former Soviet republics should they retake power.

Then there is China — a nation with major investments, and ambitions, in the region.

Beijing believes the NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan is premature — unsurprising, given it is overseeing investments worth more than $60 billion in the China Pakistan Economic Corridor, which links the Middle Kingdom to the Baloch deep-sea port of Gwadar.




Taliban co-founder Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar (C) and other members of the Taliban delegation arrive to attend an international conference on Afghanistan over the peaceful solution to the conflict in Moscow on March 18, 2021. (AFP/File Photo)

China also has sizable investments in the Central Asian republics, which supply it with gas and minerals, and which are also part of its Belt and Road Initiative, as is Iran. Wang Yi, the Chinese foreign minister, is currently visiting Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan to take the regional pulse.

In Afghanistan itself, China had signed a $2.8 billion deal to exploit a copper deposit in Mes Aynak, southeast of Kabul, and in 2019 imported Afghan pine nuts worth $40 million. But, overall, China’s involvement in reconstruction projects has been modest and it has thrown little money into the Afghan economy.

The Taliban has assured China its investments in the country are more than welcome. Habitually cautious Beijing is nevertheless concerned about the rapidly changing facts on the ground.

With so many regional players having a stake in what comes next for Afghanistan, there is more than a mere whiff of the Great Game about the period ahead. Indeed, the withdrawal of NATO troops will leave a geopolitical vacuum that many players are now eager to fill.

In a commentary on Thursday, Indian strategic expert and syndicated columnist, Brahma Chellaney, drew an analogy between Afghanistan and Vietnam. He said: “Recall the last time the US left a war unfinished: In 1973, it hastily abandoned its allies in South Vietnam. The next year, 90,000 South Vietnamese soldiers and civilians were reportedly killed as a result of the conflict, making it the deadliest year of the entire Vietnam War.”

If the Taliban retakes power or engages the Afghan government in a prolonged and savage conflict, there will be serious political, economic and humanitarian ramifications for Afghanistan’s neighbors, especially those with ethnic ties to the rainbow of cultures that make up Afghan society.

But there is far more at stake for the Afghan people than the interests and investments of foreign states. The last 20 years have seen the creation of an active civil society in Afghanistan, including a vibrant free press and active women’s representation.

On the possibility of those gains evaporating soon, former US President George W. Bush, who deployed American forces to the Middle East in the wake of the 9/11 attacks, said: “I’m afraid Afghan women and girls are going to suffer unspeakable harm.”

Every kilometer the Taliban advances toward Kabul, the faster the worst-case scenario unfolds for the region.

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* Cornelia Meyer is a Ph.D.-level economist with 30 years of experience in investment banking and industry. She is chairperson and CEO of business consultancy Meyer Resources. Twitter: @MeyerResources


Chile president to ramp up decarbonization, pressure on Israel as term winds down

Updated 4 sec ago
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Chile president to ramp up decarbonization, pressure on Israel as term winds down

  • Boric, an outspoken critic of Israel, had recently recalled military personnel from Chile’s embassy in the country and summoned the ambassador for questioning

VALPARAISO, Chile: Chile’s President Gabriel Boric said on Sunday that he will accelerate renewable energy efforts and step up pressure against Israel over its war in Gaza among other initiatives during his government’s last nine months in office.
In a wide-ranging three-hour speech from Congress in the coastal city of Valparaiso that marked his last annual address, Boric also discussed crime, infrastructure, the economy and abortion rights.
In comments that sparked the largest amount of cheers and jeers from opposite sides of Congress, Boric said he will introduce a law to ban imports from what he called “illegally occupied territories” and back efforts by Spain for an arms embargo against Israel.
Boric, an outspoken critic of Israel, had recently recalled military personnel from Chile’s embassy in the country and summoned the ambassador for questioning.
Chile’s government will also introduce an “accelerated decarbonization” bill that aims to boost investment in renewable energy sources, help end coal-powered thermoelectric plants and move the country’s 2040 goal to decarbonize the electric grid up to 2035.
Boric added that a bill to speed up the permitting process for new projects was weeks away from being approved, a long-awaited request by miners, renewable energy companies and other investors. Its goal is to cut permitting times by 30 percent to 70 percent, Boric said.
“Investment projects won’t develop to their full potential if we don’t modernize and speed up permitting,” Boric said, while also touting his plan to expand lithium mining, led by state copper giant Codelco.
Critics have rebuked Boric for not making major reforms he promised as a candidate, and for failing to see through a rewrite of the dictatorship-era constitution that was knocked back twice by voters.
Boric appeared to recognize the complaints, while defending his record.
“Have we achieved everything we wanted, with the depth we wanted? No, but we have made progress in that direction, with the conditions under which we had to govern,” he said.

 


Zelensky says Ukraine used 117 drones in attacks on Russian air bases

Updated 01 June 2025
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Zelensky says Ukraine used 117 drones in attacks on Russian air bases

KYIV: Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said Sunday it deployed 117 drones in a massive attack against Russian air bases that he called “our most long-range operation” in more than three years of war.
“A total of 117 drones were used in the operation. And a corresponding number of drone operators worked,” Zelensky said in a statement, adding that “34 percent of the strategic cruise missile carriers at the airfields were hit.”


Bangladesh opens trial of deposed ex-Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina

Updated 01 June 2025
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Bangladesh opens trial of deposed ex-Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina

  • The investigators brought charges of crimes against humanity against Hasina over killing of hundreds of students in a mass uprising last year
  • Hasina has been in exile in India since Aug. 5, 2023, while former Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan is missing and possibly also is in India

DHAKA: A special tribunal set up to try Bangladesh’s ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina began proceedings Sunday by accepting the charges of crimes against humanity filed against her in connection with a mass uprising in which hundreds of students were killed last year.

The Dhaka-based International Crimes Tribunal directed investigators to produce Hasina, a former home minister and a former police chief before the court on June 16.

Hasina has been in exile in India since Aug. 5, 2023, while former Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan is missing and possibly also is in India. Former police chief Chowdhury Abdullah Al Mamun has been arrested. Bangladesh sent a formal request to India to extradite Hasina in December.

State-run Bangladesh Television broadcast the court proceedings live.

In an investigation report submitted on May 12, the tribunal’s investigators brought five allegations of crimes against humanity against Hasina and the two others during the mass uprising in July-August last year.

According to the charges, Hasina was directly responsible for ordering all state forces, her Awami League party and its associates to carry out actions that led to mass killings, injuries, targeted violence against women and children, the incineration of bodies and denial of medical treatment to the wounded.

Three days after Hasina’s ouster, Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus took over as the nation’s interim leader.

In February, the UN human rights office estimated that up to 1,400 people may have been killed in Bangladesh over three weeks in the crackdown on the student-led protests against Hasina, who ruled the country for 15 years.

The tribunal was established by Hasina in 2009 to investigate and try crimes involving Bangladesh’s independence war in 1971. The tribunal under Hasina tried politicians, mostly from the Jamaat-e-Islami party, for their actions during the nine-month war against Pakistan. Aided by India, Bangladesh gained independence from Pakistan under the leadership of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, Hasina’s father and the country’s first leader.


Macron condemns ‘unacceptable’ violence during football celebrations

Updated 01 June 2025
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Macron condemns ‘unacceptable’ violence during football celebrations

  • Two people died and police made nearly 600 arrests across France overnight as football fans celebrated PSG’s 5-0 triumph over Inter Milan in Munich
  • Macron hosted Coach Luis Enrique and his team after their victory parade on the famed Champs Elysee

PARIS: French President Emmanuel Macron on Sunday condemned the “unacceptable” violence during celebrations following Paris Saint-Germain’s Champions League final victory, as he welcomed the triumphant team to the Elysee palace.
“Nothing can justify what has happened in the last few hours, the violent clashes are unacceptable,” the French leader said.
“We will pursue, we will punish, we will be relentless,” he added before congratulating the players on their win.
Two people died and police made nearly 600 arrests across France overnight as football fans celebrated PSG’s 5-0 triumph over Inter Milan in Munich.
“The violent clashes that took place are unacceptable and have come at a heavy cost: two people are dead, around 30 police officers and several firefighters have been injured,” Macron said.
“My thoughts are also with the police officer in Coutances who is currently in a coma,” he added.
Macron hosted Coach Luis Enrique and his team after their victory parade on the famed Champs Elysee, thanking the players for their quick condemnation of the previous night’s chaos.
“These isolated acts are contrary to the club’s values and in no way represent the vast majority of our supporters, whose exemplary behavior throughout the season deserves to be commended,” the club said on Sunday.


British FM says Morocco’s autonomy plan for W. Sahara ‘most credible’ solution

Updated 01 June 2025
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British FM says Morocco’s autonomy plan for W. Sahara ‘most credible’ solution

  • Britain previously backed self-determination for the disputed Western Sahara, which Morocco claims as an integral part of its kingdom
  • Spain and Germany now officially back the Moroccan autonomy plan, while France last summer recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over the territory

RABAT: British Foreign Minister David Lammy said on Sunday that Morocco’s autonomy plan for the territory of Western Sahara was the “most credible” solution to the decades-long dispute, reversing London’s long-standing position.
Western Sahara, a mineral-rich former Spanish colony, is largely controlled by Morocco but has been claimed in its entirety for decades by the pro-independence Polisario Front, which is backed by Algeria.
Morocco has been campaigning for broad support for its autonomy plan after obtaining US recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over the disputed territory in 2020, in exchange for the normalization of diplomatic relations with Israel.
“The United Kingdom considers Morocco’s autonomy proposal submitted in 2007 as the most credible, viable and pragmatic basis for a lasting resolution of the dispute,” Lammy told reporters in Rabat.
Britain previously backed self-determination for the disputed territory, which Morocco claims as an integral part of its kingdom.

The United Kingdom considers Morocco’s autonomy proposal submitted in 2007 as the most credible, viable and pragmatic basis for a lasting resolution of the dispute

UK Foreign Minister David Lammy

Moroccan foreign minister Nasser Bourita welcomed the shift, saying the new British position contributed “greatly to advancing this momentum and promoting the UN path toward a definitive and mutually acceptable solution based on the autonomy initiative.”
Rabat’s push for support for its autonomy plan has seen success.
Spain and Germany now officially back the Moroccan autonomy plan, while France last summer recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over the territory.
“This year is a vital window of opportunity to secure a resolution before we reach 50 years of the dispute in November,” said Lammy.
The foreign minister also said it encouraged “relevant parties to engage urgently and positively with the United Nations-led political process.”
The United Nations considers Western Sahara a “non-self-governing territory” and has had a peacekeeping mission there since 1991, whose stated aim is to organize a referendum on the territory’s future.
But Rabat has repeatedly ruled out any vote where independence is an option, instead proposing an autonomy plan.
The ceasefire collapsed in mid-November 2020 after Moroccan troops were deployed to the far south of the territory to remove separatists blocking the only route to Mauritania — a route they claimed was illegal, as it did not exist in 1991.
The UN Security Council is calling for negotiations without preconditions, while Morocco insists they focus solely on its autonomy plan.
“The only viable and durable solution will be one that is mutually acceptable to the relevant parties and is arrived at through compromise,” added Lammy.
In a joint statement, the United Kingdom noted that its export credit agency, UK Export Finance, may consider supporting projects in the Sahara as part of its commitment to mobilize 5 billion British pounds (approximately 5.9 billion euros) for new economic initiatives in Morocco.