LONDON: The next step in the Tunisian crisis will be crucial for the north African country, a panel of experts has predicted.
President Kais Saied suspended parliament, sacked the prime minister and cabinet, and assumed emergency powers, but analysts say it is important to know what will happen when measures are lifted. Will parliament resume its activities, will there be early elections, and what will the president’s roadmap entail?
The questions were raised during a webinar hosted by British-based think tank Chatham House on Wednesday to explore the factors that paved the way for recent events and to assess the options for Tunisia’s democratic transition.
Mass violent nationwide protests erupted in the country on July 25 and Saied introduced a state of emergency.
Aymen Bessalah, advocacy and policy analyst at independent democracy watchdog Al-Bawsala, said it was important to look at the backdrop to the crisis, which included increasing violence under parliament, the continuing police response to social protests culminating in thousands of arrests, and the handling of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic.
He noted that less than 10 percent of the population had been fully vaccinated and the COVID-19 death toll had passed the 20,000 mark in a nation of less than 12 million people, adding that increased poverty levels had fueled the protests.
Bessalah pointed out that Article 80 of the Tunisian constitution provided the president with discretionary powers that were not limited, but commentators and scholars agreed that suspending parliament was not included in the rules.
“The issue here is that the state of exception that is activated when invoking Article 80 has two safeguards. Firstly, is parliament being enacted in a set of permanent sessions, the second is that the Constitutional Court is yet to be put in place,” he added.
The court was meant to be established in November 2015 but has been delayed for several reasons.
Fadil Aliriza, editor in chief of Meshkal, said the COVID-19 pandemic had seriously impacted the Tunisian economy and tourism sector, due to lockdowns and curfews. Austerity measures suggested by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had also led to increases in the price of subsidized consumer goods.
“In 2013, the debt to GDP (gross domestic product) ratio in Tunisia was only about 40 percent and today it’s 90 percent, so, that’s seven years that this IMF program has been in place, and we have not seen Tunisia improved in terms of its debt. In fact, it’s got a lot worse,” he added.
So too has unemployment and the country’s trade deficit, both having a negative effect on the health sector.
Dr. Laryssa Chomiak, associate fellow at Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa program, said: “It is hard to resolve if these were planned moves, or whether Tunisia found itself in the perfect storm type of situation.” As a result, she noted, the constitutionality of the current events was entirely open to interpretation.
“The pandemic has exacerbated long-standing socioeconomic pressures, such as currency devaluation, the Tunisian dinar devaluated by 64 percent since 2011, high unemployment, stagnating salaries, and rising cost of living, which has dramatically affected the price of basic foodstuffs, gasoline, and utilities.”
She added that democracy was not limited to elections, and that the current conditions have had critical effects on trust and belief in democratic institutions.
Chomiak pointed out that an Arab Barometer report in April had revealed that 55 percent of Tunisians believed that democracy was always the preferable form of governance. But when asked what the characteristics of democracy were, 74 percent of Tunisians identified basic necessities such as food, clothes, and the provision of shelter for all. “In this view, democracy is more about equality and support for fair distribution.”
Public opinion poll findings have registered a steadily diminishing trust in parliament and political parties, but also due to insufficient public funding and virulent attacks by competing political forces that are increasingly turning violent, she said.
Daniel Brumberg, director of democracy and governance studies at Georgetown University, said Tunisia was the only country in the Arab world, in the wake of the so-called Arab Spring in 2011, to have political science and negotiated pact and agreement between leaders.
But the economic policies that were pursued incorporated actors from the previous regime and prevented any major effort to reform the economy, and the international community decided not to press for a reform of the security sector, he added.
He said the role of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt was important during the transition process, while the Europeans were calling for Tunisia to get its democracy back on track. Then there was the US.
Brumberg noted that Washington would like to play a bigger role in Tunisia and President Joe Biden’s administration had made democracy a major foreign policy as part of its agenda, different from the previous administration.
“There’s a genuine concern, not simply about democracy, but human rights,” he added. He pointed out that the Tunisian political apparatus had been dysfunctional in the power-sharing formula. “It’s ultimately up to Tunisians themselves to work this out,” Brumberg said.
What comes next in Tunisia more important than current crisis: Experts
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What comes next in Tunisia more important than current crisis: Experts
- Public opinion poll findings have registered a steadily diminishing trust in parliament and political parties
- The COVID-19 pandemic had seriously impacted the Tunisian economy and health sector
Sudan army chief visits HQ after recapture from paramilitaries
“Our forces are in their best condition,” Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan told army commanders at the reclaimed headquarters close to the city center and airport.
The army’s recapture of the General Command of the Armed Forces is its biggest victory in the capital since reclaiming Omdurman, Khartoum’s twin city on the Nile’s west bank, nearly a year ago.
In a statement on Friday, the army said it had merged troops stationed in Khartoum North (Bahri) and Omdurman with forces at the headquarters, breaking the siege of both the Signal Corps in Khartoum North and the General Command, just south across the Nile River.
Since the early days of the war, when the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) quickly spread through the streets of Khartoum, the military had to supply its troops inside the headquarters via airdrops.
Burhan was himself trapped inside for four months before emerging in August 2023 and fleeing to the coastal city of Port Sudan.
The recapture of the headquarters follows other gains for the army.
Earlier this month, troops regained control of Wad Madani, just south of Khartoum, securing a key crossroads between the capital and surrounding states.
The war in Sudan has unleashed a humanitarian disaster of epic proportions.
Tens of thousands of people have been killed and, according to the United Nations, more than 12 million uprooted.
Famine has been declared in parts of Sudan but the risk is spreading for millions more people, a UN-backed assessment said last month.
Particularly in the country’s western Darfur region and in Kordofan in the south, families have been forced to eat grass, animal fodder and peanut shells to survive.
During Sunday prayers in Rome, Pope Francis lamented how the country has become the site of “the most serious humanitarian crisis in the world.”
He called on both sides to end the fighting and urged the international community to “help the belligerents find paths to peace soon.”
Both sides have been accused of targeting civilians and indiscriminately shelling residential areas, with the RSF specifically accused of ethnic cleansing, systematic sexual violence and laying siege to entire towns.
The United States announced sanctions this month against RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, accusing his group of committing genocide.
A week later, it also imposed sanctions against Burhan, accusing the army of attacking schools, markets and hospitals, as well as using food deprivation as a weapon of war.
Across the country, up to 80 percent of health care facilities have been forced out of service, according to official figures.
A deadly attack late Friday on the Saudi Hospital in the besieged North Darfur state capital El-Fasher killed 70 people and injured 19 others, the World Health Organization said on Sunday.
“At the time of the attack, the hospital was packed with patients receiving care,” WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on X.
In a rare statement addressing the targeting of health care in Sudan, Saudi Arabia also condemned the attack as a “violation of international law and international humanitarian law.”
AFP could not independently verify which of Sudan’s warring sides had launched the attack.
However, local activists reported that the hospital was hit by a drone after the RSF issued an ultimatum demanding army forces and their allies leave the city in advance of an expected offensive.
The WHO chief said that another facility in North Darfur’s Al-Malha, just north of El-Fasher, had also been attacked in recent days.
“We continue to call for a cessation of all attacks on health care in Sudan, and to allow full access for the swift restoration of the facilities that have been damaged,” Ghebreyesus said.
“Above all, Sudan’s people need peace. The best medicine is peace,” he added.
Pope Francis says Sudan's war 'most serious humanitarian crisis'
- A drone attack on a hospital in El-Fasher killed at least 70 people
- Pope Francis appeals to warring parties in Sudan to cease hostilities
VATICAN CITY: Pope Francis said during Sunday prayers that the horror of the Holocaust can not be “forgotten or denied” as he also highlighted current suffering caused by Sudan’s civil war.
Speaking on the eve of the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz-Birkenau, he called on the entire world to “work together to eliminate the scourge of anti-Semitism as well as all forms of religious discrimination and persecution.”
Turning to Sudan, Francis said it was the “most serious humanitarian crisis in the world.”
“I renew my appeal to the warring parties in Sudan to cease hostilities and agree to sit at a negotiating table,” he said at the Sunday Angelus service.
The conflict in Sudan between the army and the Rapid Support Forces militia has triggered a huge humanitarian disaster, killing tens of thousands of people, uprooting more than 12 million and causing widespread starvation in parts of the country.
A drone attack on a Saudi-run hospital in El-Fasher in Sudan's Darfur region killed at least 70 people and wounded 19 others, according to the World Health Organization on Sunday.
Israeli fire kills 15 on deadline for Lebanon withdrawal
- Israeli forces opened fire on ‘citizens who were trying to return to their villages’
- The Lebanese army says ‘ready to continue its deployment” as soon as Israel left’
BURJ AL-MULUK, Lebanon: Israeli troops opened fire in south Lebanon on Sunday, killing at least 15 residents and a Lebanese soldier, health officials said as hundreds of people tried to return to their homes on the deadline for Israel to withdraw.
Israel was all but certain to miss Sunday’s deadline, which is part of a ceasefire agreement that ended its war with the Iran-backed Hezbollah group two months ago.
The deal that took effect on November 27 said the Lebanese army was to deploy alongside United Nations peacekeepers in the south as the Israeli army withdrew over a 60-day period.
That period ends on Sunday.
Lebanon’s health ministry said Israeli forces opened fire on “citizens who were trying to return to their villages,” killing at least 15 and wounding 83.
The ministry’s toll includes a soldier from the Lebanese army, which also announced his death and said Israeli fire had wounded another soldier.
AFP journalists said convoys of vehicles carrying hundreds of people, some flying yellow Hezbollah flags, were trying to get to several villages despite the Israeli military’s continued presence.
“We will return to our villages and the Israeli enemy will leave,” even if it costs lives, said Ali Harb, a 27-year-old trying to go to Kfar Kila.
Residents could also be seen heading on foot and by motorbike toward the devastated border town of Mays Al-Jabal, where Israeli troops are still stationed.
Some held up portraits of slain Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, while women dressed in black carried photos of family members killed in the war.
Israeli military spokesman Avichay Adraee had issued a message earlier on Sunday to residents of more than 60 villages in southern Lebanon, telling them not to return.
Speaking from the border town of Aita Al-Shaab, Hezbollah lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah hailed in a television appearance “the return of residents in spite of the threats and warnings.”
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, the former army chief who took office earlier this month after a two-year vacancy in the post, called on residents to keep a cool head and “trust the Lebanese army,” which he said wanted “to ensure your safe return to your homes and villages.”
On Saturday, the army had said the delay in implementing the agreement was the “result of the procrastination in the withdrawal from the Israeli enemy’s side.”
A joint statement from the UN special coordinator for Lebanon and the head of the UN peacekeeping mission on Sunday acknowledged “that the timelines envisaged in the November Understanding have not been met.”
“As seen tragically this morning, conditions are not yet in place for the safe return of citizens to their villages along the Blue Line,” the statement said, referring to the border. It urged residents “to exercise caution.”
Israeli forces have left coastal areas of southern Lebanon, but are still present in areas further east.
The ceasefire deal stipulates that Hezbollah pull back its forces north of the Litani River — about 30 kilometers (20 miles) from the border — and dismantle any remaining military infrastructure in the south.
But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said on Friday that the “agreement has not yet been fully enforced by the Lebanese state,” so the military’s withdrawal would continue beyond the Sunday deadline.
The Lebanese army said it was “ready to continue its deployment” as soon as Israel left.
Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati called Sunday for the backers of the ceasefire agreement — a group that includes the United States and France — “to force the Israeli enemy to withdraw.”
Lebanese state media have reported that Israeli forces have carried out demolitions in villages they control.
Aoun spoke on Saturday with his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron about the “need to oblige Israel to respect the terms of the deal,” adding it must “end its successive violations, including the destruction of border villages.”
Macron’s office said the French president had called on all parties to the ceasefire to honor their commitments as soon as possible.
The fragile truce has generally held, even as the warring sides have repeatedly traded accusations of violations.
The deal ended two months of full-scale war that had followed nearly a year of low-intensity exchanges.
Hezbollah began trading cross-border fire with the Israeli army the day after the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel by its Palestinian ally Hamas, which triggered the war in Gaza.
Israel’s campaign delivered a series of devastating blows against Hezbollah’s leadership including its longtime chief Nasrallah.
Israeli fire kills 1 as Palestinians are kept out of north Gaza over a ceasefire dispute
- Under the ceasefire, Israel on Saturday was to begin allowing Palestinians to return to their homes in northern Gaza on foot
- Israel put the move on hold until Hamas freed a hostage who Israel said was supposed to have been released
DEIR AL-BALAH: A Palestinian man was killed and seven people were wounded by Israeli fire overnight, local health officials said Sunday, as crowds gathered in hopes of returning to the northern Gaza Strip under a fragile week-old ceasefire aimed at winding down the war.
In a separate development, President Donald Trump suggested Saturday that most of Gaza’s population should be at least temporarily resettled elsewhere, including in Egypt and Jordan, in order to “just clean out” the war-ravaged enclave. Egypt, Jordan and the Palestinians themselves have previously rejected such a scenario.
Under the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, Israel on Saturday was to begin allowing Palestinians to return to their homes in northern Gaza on foot through the so-called Netzarim corridor bisecting the territory. Israel put the move on hold until Hamas freed a hostage who Israel said was supposed to have been released that day.
The man was shot and two others were wounded late Saturday, according to the Awda Hospital, which received the casualties. Another five Palestinians, including a child, were wounded early Sunday in a separate shooting, the hospital said.
There was no immediate comment from the Israeli military.
Israel has pulled back from several areas of Gaza as part of the ceasefire, which came into force last Sunday, but the military has warned people to stay away from its forces, which are still operating in a buffer zone inside Gaza along the border and in the Netzarim corridor.
Hamas freed four young female Israeli soldiers on Saturday, and Israel released some 200 Palestinian prisoners, most of whom were serving life sentences after being convicted of deadly attacks.
But Israel said another hostage, the female civilian Arbel Yehoud, was supposed to have been released as well, and that it would not open the Netzarim corridor until she was freed. It also accused Hamas of failing to provide details on the conditions of the hostages set to be freed in the coming weeks.
The United States, Egypt and Qatar, which mediated the ceasefire, were working to address the dispute.
The ceasefire reached earlier this month after more than a year of negotiations is aimed at ending the 15-month war triggered by Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack and freeing scores of hostages still held in Gaza in return for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.
Around 90 hostages are still being held in Gaza, and Israeli authorities believe at least a third, and up to half of them, were killed in the initial attack or died in captivity.
The first phase of the ceasefire runs until early March and includes the release of a total of 33 hostages and nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. The second — and far more difficult — phase, has yet to be negotiated. Hamas has said it will not release the remaining hostages without an end to the war, while Israel has threatened to resume its offensive until Hamas is destroyed.
Hamas-led militants killed some 1,200 people in the Oct. 7 attack, mostly civilians, and abducted around 250 people. More than 100 were freed during a weeklong ceasefire in November 2023. Israeli forces have rescued eight living hostages and recovered the remains of dozens more, at least three of whom were mistakenly killed by Israeli forces. Seven have been freed since the latest ceasefire began.
Israel’s military campaign has killed over 47,000 Palestinians, more than half of them women and children, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry. It does not say how many of the dead were combatants. The Israeli military says it has killed over 17,000 fighters, without providing evidence.
Israeli bombardment and ground operations have flattened wide swaths of Gaza and displaced around 90 percent of its population of 2.3 million people. Many who have returned to their homes since the ceasefire began have found only mounds of rubble where their neighborhoods once stood.
WHO chief urges end to attacks on Sudan health care after 70 killed in drone strike
- WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus: ‘We continue to call for a cessation of all attacks on health care in Sudan’
The head of the World Health Organization called on Saturday for an end to attacks on health care workers and facilities in Sudan after a drone attack on a hospital in Sudan’s North Darfur region killed more than 70 people and wounded dozens.
“As the only functional hospital in El Fasher, the Saudi Teaching Maternal Hospital provides services which include gyn-obstetrics, internal medicine, surgery and pediatrics, along with a nutrition stabilization center,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus posted on X after the Friday strike.
“We continue to call for a cessation of all attacks on health care in Sudan, and to allow full access for the swift restoration of the facilities that have been damaged,” Tedros said.
The war between Sudan’s army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which broke out in April 2023 due to disputes over the integration of the two forces, has killed tens of thousands, driven millions from their homes and plunged half of the population into hunger.
The conflict has produced waves of ethnically driven violence blamed largely on the RSF, creating a humanitarian crisis.
Darfur Governor Mini Minnawi said on X that an RSF drone had struck the emergency department of the hospital in the capital of North Darfur, killing patients, including women and children.
Fierce clashes have erupted in El Fasher between the RSF and the Sudanese joint forces, including the army, armed resistance groups, police, and local defense units.
