LONDON: The next step in the Tunisian crisis will be crucial for the north African country, a panel of experts has predicted.
President Kais Saied suspended parliament, sacked the prime minister and cabinet, and assumed emergency powers, but analysts say it is important to know what will happen when measures are lifted. Will parliament resume its activities, will there be early elections, and what will the president’s roadmap entail?
The questions were raised during a webinar hosted by British-based think tank Chatham House on Wednesday to explore the factors that paved the way for recent events and to assess the options for Tunisia’s democratic transition.
Mass violent nationwide protests erupted in the country on July 25 and Saied introduced a state of emergency.
Aymen Bessalah, advocacy and policy analyst at independent democracy watchdog Al-Bawsala, said it was important to look at the backdrop to the crisis, which included increasing violence under parliament, the continuing police response to social protests culminating in thousands of arrests, and the handling of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic.
He noted that less than 10 percent of the population had been fully vaccinated and the COVID-19 death toll had passed the 20,000 mark in a nation of less than 12 million people, adding that increased poverty levels had fueled the protests.
Bessalah pointed out that Article 80 of the Tunisian constitution provided the president with discretionary powers that were not limited, but commentators and scholars agreed that suspending parliament was not included in the rules.
“The issue here is that the state of exception that is activated when invoking Article 80 has two safeguards. Firstly, is parliament being enacted in a set of permanent sessions, the second is that the Constitutional Court is yet to be put in place,” he added.
The court was meant to be established in November 2015 but has been delayed for several reasons.
Fadil Aliriza, editor in chief of Meshkal, said the COVID-19 pandemic had seriously impacted the Tunisian economy and tourism sector, due to lockdowns and curfews. Austerity measures suggested by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had also led to increases in the price of subsidized consumer goods.
“In 2013, the debt to GDP (gross domestic product) ratio in Tunisia was only about 40 percent and today it’s 90 percent, so, that’s seven years that this IMF program has been in place, and we have not seen Tunisia improved in terms of its debt. In fact, it’s got a lot worse,” he added.
So too has unemployment and the country’s trade deficit, both having a negative effect on the health sector.
Dr. Laryssa Chomiak, associate fellow at Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa program, said: “It is hard to resolve if these were planned moves, or whether Tunisia found itself in the perfect storm type of situation.” As a result, she noted, the constitutionality of the current events was entirely open to interpretation.
“The pandemic has exacerbated long-standing socioeconomic pressures, such as currency devaluation, the Tunisian dinar devaluated by 64 percent since 2011, high unemployment, stagnating salaries, and rising cost of living, which has dramatically affected the price of basic foodstuffs, gasoline, and utilities.”
She added that democracy was not limited to elections, and that the current conditions have had critical effects on trust and belief in democratic institutions.
Chomiak pointed out that an Arab Barometer report in April had revealed that 55 percent of Tunisians believed that democracy was always the preferable form of governance. But when asked what the characteristics of democracy were, 74 percent of Tunisians identified basic necessities such as food, clothes, and the provision of shelter for all. “In this view, democracy is more about equality and support for fair distribution.”
Public opinion poll findings have registered a steadily diminishing trust in parliament and political parties, but also due to insufficient public funding and virulent attacks by competing political forces that are increasingly turning violent, she said.
Daniel Brumberg, director of democracy and governance studies at Georgetown University, said Tunisia was the only country in the Arab world, in the wake of the so-called Arab Spring in 2011, to have political science and negotiated pact and agreement between leaders.
But the economic policies that were pursued incorporated actors from the previous regime and prevented any major effort to reform the economy, and the international community decided not to press for a reform of the security sector, he added.
He said the role of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt was important during the transition process, while the Europeans were calling for Tunisia to get its democracy back on track. Then there was the US.
Brumberg noted that Washington would like to play a bigger role in Tunisia and President Joe Biden’s administration had made democracy a major foreign policy as part of its agenda, different from the previous administration.
“There’s a genuine concern, not simply about democracy, but human rights,” he added. He pointed out that the Tunisian political apparatus had been dysfunctional in the power-sharing formula. “It’s ultimately up to Tunisians themselves to work this out,” Brumberg said.
What comes next in Tunisia more important than current crisis: Experts
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What comes next in Tunisia more important than current crisis: Experts
- Public opinion poll findings have registered a steadily diminishing trust in parliament and political parties
- The COVID-19 pandemic had seriously impacted the Tunisian economy and health sector
Syria extends deadline for probe into killings of Alawites
- President Ahmed Al-Sharaa grants fact-finding committee three month extension to identify perpetrators
- Human rights groups say more than 1,000 civilians — mostly Alawites were killed in violence last month
BEIRUT: Syria’s presidency announced on Friday that it would extend a probe into the killings of Alawite civilians in coastal areas that left hundreds dead after clashes between government forces and armed groups loyal to former President Bashar Assad spiraled into sectarian revenge attacks.
The violence erupted on March 6 after Assad loyalists ambushed patrols of the new government, prompting Islamist-led groups to launch coordinated assaults on Latakia, Baniyas, and other coastal areas.
According to human rights groups, more than 1,000 civilians — mostly Alawites, an Islamic minority to which Assad belongs — were killed in retaliatory attacks, including home raids, executions, and arson, displacing thousands.
The sectarian violence was possibly among the bloodiest 72 hours in Syria’s modern history, including the 14 years of civil war from which the country is now emerging. The violence brought fear of a renewed civil war and threatened to open an endless cycle of vengeance, driving thousands of Alawites to flee their homes, with an estimated 30,000 seeking refuge in northern Lebanon.
On March 9, President Ahmed Al-Sharaa, the former leader of an Islamist insurgent group, formed a fact-finding committee and gave it 30 days to report its findings and identify perpetrators. In a decree published late Thursday, Sharaa said the committee had requested more time and was granted a three-month non-renewable extension.
The committee’s spokesperson, Yasser Farhan, said in a statement on Friday that the committee has recorded 41 sites where killings took place, each forming the basis for a separate case and requiring more time to gather evidence. He said some areas remained inaccessible due to time constraints, but that residents had cooperated, despite threats from pro-Assad remnants.
In a report published on April 3, Amnesty International said its probe into the killings concluded that at least 32 of more than 100 people killed in the town of Baniyas were deliberately targeted on sectarian grounds — a potential war crime.
The rights organization welcomed the committee’s formation but stressed it must be independent, properly resourced, and granted full access to burial sites and witnesses to conduct a credible investigation. It also said the committee should be granted “adequate time to complete the investigation.”
Witnesses to the killings identified the attackers as hard-line Sunni Islamists, including Syria-based jihadi foreign fighters and members of former rebel factions that took part in the offensive that overthrew Assad. However, many were also local Sunnis, seeking revenge for past atrocities blamed on Alawites loyal to Assad.
While some Sunnis hold the Alawite community responsible for Assad’s brutal crackdowns, Alawites themselves say they also suffered under his rule.
Erdogan accuses Israel of seeking to ‘dynamite’ Syria ‘revolution’
- Turkish president says Israel is turning minorities in Syria against the government
ANTALYA: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Friday accused Israel of sowing divisions in Syria in a bid to “dynamite” the “revolution” that toppled strongman Bashar Assad.
Turkiye is a key backer of Syria’s new leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa whose Islamist group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) led the rebel coalition which ousted Assad in December.
“Israel is trying to dynamite the December 8 revolution by stirring up ethnic and religious affiliations and turning minorities in Syria against the government,” Erdogan told a diplomacy forum in the southern Mediterranean resort of Antalya.
Erdogan’s comments come as officials from Turkiye and Israel began talks this week aimed at easing tensions over Syria.
Israel has launched air strikes and ground incursions to keep Syrian forces away from its border.
“Israel is turning into a problematic country that directly threatens the stability of the region, especially with its attacks on Lebanon and Syria,” Erdogan said.
He also said Israeli strikes were denting efforts to combat the Daesh jihadist group.
Paramilitary attack on Sudan famine-hit camp kills 25: activists
- Shelling and intense gunfire targeted the Zamzam displacement camp near El-Fasher on Friday
PORT SUDAN: Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces on Friday killed 25 civilians including women and children, in an attack on a famine-stricken camp in Sudan’s North Darfur state, activists said.
The attack, which involved shelling and intense gunfire, “targeted Zamzam displacement camp from both the southern and eastern directions,” said the local resistance committee, a volunteer aid group in North Darfur’s besieged capital of El-Fasher.
Zamzam and other densely populated camps for the displaced around El-Fasher have suffered heavily during nearly two years of fighting between Sudan’s army and the RSF.
The paramilitaries have stepped up its efforts to complete their conquest of Darfur, Sudan’s vast western region, since losing control of the capital Khartoum last month.
Eyewitnesses described seeing RSF combat vehicles infiltrating the camp under cover of heavy gunfire.
The local resistance committee said the attack was met with counter-fire but the full extent of damage was unclear due to disrupted communications and Internet shutdowns.
Zamzam was the first part of Sudan where a UN-backed assessment declared famine last year.
The conflict in Sudan has killed tens of thousands of people and uprooted more than 12 million since a struggle for power between rival generals erupted into full-blown war on April 15, 2023.
More Sudanese refugees fleeing as far as Europe, UN refugee agency says
- Olga Sarrado, UN refugee agency spokesperson, told a press briefing in Geneva that some 484 Sudanese had arrived in Europe in January and February, up 38 percent from the same period last year
GENEVA: Over a thousand Sudanese refugees have reached or attempted to reach Europe in early 2025, the United Nations’ refugee agency said on Friday, citing growing desperation in part due to reduced aid in the region.
Some 12 million people have been displaced by the two-year conflict between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces that has fueled what UN officials call the world’s most devastating aid crisis.
While some have recently returned home to Khartoum, millions of others in neighboring countries like Egypt and Chad face tough choices as services for refugees are being cut, including by the United States as part of an aid review.
Olga Sarrado, UN refugee agency spokesperson, told a press briefing in Geneva that some 484 Sudanese had arrived in Europe in January and February, up 38 percent from the same period last year.
Around 937 others were rescued or intercepted at sea and returned to Libya — more than double last year’s figures for the same period, she added.
“As humanitarian aid crumbles and if the war does not abate, many more will have little choice than to join them,” she said.
Migrant deaths hit a record last year, the UN migration agency said, with many perishing on the Mediterranean crossing which is one of the world’s most dangerous.
UN: 36 Israeli strikes in Gaza killed ‘only women and children’
- Family of 10 killed in Israeli airstrike on Friday
- UN rights office spokesperson warns the military strikes across Gaza were ‘leaving nowhere safe’
GAZA: Dozens of Israeli air strikes on Gaza have killed “only women and children” after a ceasefire collapsed, the UN said, as an Israeli attack in the territory’s south on Friday left a family of 10 dead.
A UN rights office report also warned that expanding Israeli evacuation orders were resulting in the “forcible transfer” of people into ever-shrinking areas, raising “real concern as to the future viability of Palestinians as a group in Gaza.”
Israel’s military said it was looking into the attack that killed members of the same family in Khan Yunis, southern Gaza, adding separately that it had struck approximately 40 “terror targets” across the territory over the past day.
Israel resumed its Gaza strikes on March 18, ending a two-month ceasefire with Hamas.
Since then, more than 1,500 people have been killed, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory to which Israel cut off aid more than a month ago.
“Ten people, including seven children, were brought to the hospital as martyrs following an Israeli air strike that targeted the Farra family home in central Khan Yunis,” civil defense spokesperson Mahmud Bassal told AFP.
AFP footage of the aftermath showed several bodies wrapped in white shrouds and blankets, and footage of the house showed mangled concrete slabs and twisted metal.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan lashed denounced Israel, saying: “If this is not barbarism, I ask you, what is it?“
Early Friday, Israel’s military issued an evacuation warning to residents of several areas east of Gaza City ahead of a new offensive there.
The UN decried the impact of the ongoing Israeli strikes, finding that “a large percentage of fatalities are children and women.”
“Between 18 March and 9 April 2025, there were some 224 incidents of Israeli strikes on residential buildings and tents for internally displaced people,” the UN human rights office said in Geneva.
“In some 36 strikes about which the UN Human Rights Office corroborated information, the fatalities recorded so far were only women and children.”
Israel’s military has repeatedly said Palestinian militants often hide among civilians, a charge Hamas denies.
UN rights office spokeswoman Ravina Shamdasani also raised concerns over “the denial of access to basic necessities within Gaza and the repeated suggestion that Gazans should leave the territory entirely.”
Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan, after meeting regional counterparts in Turkiye, urged “maximum pressure to ensure” aid is delivered into Gaza.
The war broke out after Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel resulted in the deaths of 1,218 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on Israeli official figures.
Militants also took 251 hostages, 58 of whom are still held in Gaza, including 34 the Israeli military says are dead.
Gaza’s health ministry said Friday at least 1,542 Palestinians have been killed since March 18, taking the overall death toll since the war began to 50,912.
A truce brokered by the United States, Egypt and Qatar that took effect on January 19 and lasted until March 17 saw the return of 33 Israeli hostages, eight of them in coffins, in exchange for around 1,800 Palestinian prisoners.
In a Passover holiday message, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated his pledge to bring the remaining captives home.
He spoke after US President Donald Trump suggested progress in hostage release talks, telling a cabinet meeting on Thursday that “we’re getting close to getting them back.”
Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff was also quoted in an Israeli media report as saying “a very serious deal is taking shape, it’s a matter of days.”
Israeli media reported Friday that Egypt and Israel had exchanged draft documents on a ceasefire-hostage release deal.
The Times of Israel said Egypt’s proposal would mean eight living hostages and eight bodies released in exchange for a truce of between 40 and 70 days and a large number of Palestinian prisoner releases.
A senior Hamas leader who declined to be identified told journalists the group had “not received any new ceasefire offer.”
“The movement is open to any new proposal that would achieve a ceasefire, withdraw the occupation’s forces, and end the suffering of the Palestinian people.”
In his message for Passover — a holiday celebrating the biblical liberation of the Israelites from slavery in Egypt — Netanyahu said that “together we will return our hostages.”
He has insisted that increased military pressure is the only way to get the captives home.
