LONDON: The Brent benchmark oil price held above $70 a barrel on Friday, broadly shrugging off a warning from the International Energy Agency that the spread of coronavirus variants is slowing oil demand growth.
Brent crude was down 18 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $71.13 a barrel by 1:32 p.m. GMT. US crude lost 14 cents, or 0.2 percent, to trade at $68.95. Over the week the benchmarks are up less than 1 percent.
The IEA this week highlighted that growth in demand for crude oil ground to a halt in July and is set to rise at a slower pace over the rest of 2021 because of surging infections from the Delta variant of the coronavirus.
Banks have also lowered their near-term demand forecasts. “We now see the global demand recovery stalling this month with oil demand only reaching 98.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in August and averaging 97.9 million bpd in September, on par with the nearly 98 million bpd average in July,” JPM Commodities Research said.
Similarly, Goldman Sachs has reduced its estimate for the global oil deficit to 1 million bpd from 2.3 million bpd in the short term, citing an expected decline in demand in August and September.
Looking beyond the near-term risks from the Delta variant, Goldman expects the demand recovery to continue alongside rising vaccination rates.
In sharp contrast, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Thursday stuck to its forecasts for a rebound in global oil demand this year and further growth in 2022, notwithstanding the rising concern over surges in COVID-19 infections.
But OPEC also raised its expectations for supplies next year from other producers, including US shale drillers, which could hamper efforts by the producer group and allies to achieve a balanced market.
“The IEA/OPEC duo are far from being unanimous when it comes to the oil demand front. However, one area in which they find common ground is the reducing demand for OPEC crude,” PVM analysts said in a note.
Oil holds above $70 despite forecasts for weaker demand growth
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Oil holds above $70 despite forecasts for weaker demand growth
- International Energy Agency warned that demand growth for crude and its products had slowed sharply
Saudi Arabia pledges $932m boost to tourism projects in Al-Ahsa
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia has committed over SR3.5 billion ($932 million) to develop 17 tourism projects in Al-Ahsa, positioning the region as a key destination in the Kingdom’s growing travel sector, according to a senior official.
During a meeting with investors and entrepreneurs as part of his broader tour across Saudi regions, Tourism Minister Ahmed Al-Khateeb outlined plans to enhance the governorate’s tourism infrastructure.
The projects will add more than 1,800 hotel rooms, leveraging Al-Ahsa’s natural and cultural assets to attract domestic and international visitors, the Saudi Press Agency reported.
The initiative aligns with the Kingdom’s National Tourism Strategy, which aims to attract 150 million visitors annually by 2030 and increase the tourism sector’s contribution to Saudi Arabia’s gross domestic product from 6 percent to 10 percent.
Al-Khateeb highlighted investment opportunities in the sector, reaffirming the ministry’s commitment to providing comprehensive services and facilities to encourage further private sector involvement.
As part of the tour, the minister visited the SR200 million Radisson Blu Hotel in Al-Ahsa. Spanning over 10,000 sq. meters and featuring more than 180 rooms, the hotel — supported by the Tourism Development Fund — combines international luxury with local authenticity, serving as a model for future developments in the region.
Jordan forecasts $14.3bn in public revenues in 2025 budget
RIYADH: Jordan’s public revenues for 2025 are projected at 10.2 billion dinars ($14.3 billion), slightly down from the 10.3 billion dinars forecast for 2024, according to the nation’s General Budget Department.
The 2025 draft budget estimated 9.5 billion dinars in local revenues and 734.3 million dinars from foreign grants, closely aligning with the figures for 2024.
The draft budget provided a detailed financial framework for the country, highlighting major national development projects, governorate-specific allocations, and a roadmap for spending during 2025–2027.
The document underscored the government’s commitment to balancing fiscal discipline with strategic investments aligned with Jordan’s Economic Modernization Vision.
The vision is centered on the slogan “A Better Future” and focuses on two main pillars: driving accelerated economic growth and enhancing the quality of life for all citizens.
Sustainability is also a key foundation of this vision.
Economic and fiscal overview
Total public expenditures for 2025 are estimated at 12.5 billion dinars, consisting of:
- 11.04 billion dinars in current expenditures allocated for operational and administrative functions, including salaries, pensions, and subsidies.
- 1.47 billion dinars in capital expenditures, reflecting a 16.5 percent increase compared to 2024. This allocation prioritizes infrastructure development, health care enhancements, and educational improvements.
The budget targets a reduction in the primary deficit to 2 percent of gross domestic product, compared to 2.9 percent in 2024.
Key national investments
The draft budget emphasized transformative projects to address critical national needs, including the National Water Carrier Initiative, which addresses Jordan’s chronic water scarcity and ensures long-term water security.
There is also a focus on a railway project that connects Aqaba Port to Al-Shidiya and Ghor Al-Safi. This initiative aims to boost logistical efficiency and economic integration.
Other key projects include investments in renewable energy and infrastructure upgrades and enhancements in public transportation networks to ease connectivity and reduce environmental impact.
Economic growth targets
The budget framework projects there will be 2.5 percent real GDP growth, driven by ongoing structural reforms.
It also forecases 4.9 percent nominal growth, supported by moderate inflation rates that contribute to financial and monetary stability.
Governorate budgets and modernization efforts
The budget allocates significant funds to governorates to ensure equitable development and address local priorities. Notable regional allocations include money for the construction and maintenance of hospitals, schools, and transportation infrastructure.
There is also funding for agricultural development, water management, and job creation initiatives tailored to local needs.
Specific projects detailed in the governorate budgets include road maintenance and expansions in Irbid, Al-Mafraq, and other regions, investments in health care facilities, including expansions of hospitals and primary care centers, and the development of educational institutions, such as building new schools and upgrading existing facilities.
In line with the “Public Sector Modernization The Roadmap,” the draft budget included funding for implementing updated job guidelines, creating new vacancies, and modernizing public administration to enhance service delivery.
This framework is a comprehensive roadmap to improve public administration and enhance the institutional approach to responding efficiently to domestic and global developments.
Oil Updates – crude steadies amid possible Middle East ceasefire
- Israel, Lebanon eye ceasefire in Israel-Hezbollah conflict
- MidEast ceasefire cuts likelihood of US sanctions on Iran oil
- Kyiv faces sustained Russian drone attacks
SINGAPORE: Oil prices edged higher in early trade on Tuesday after falling in the previous session as investors took stock of a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, weighing on oil’s risk premium.
Brent crude futures rose 15 cents, or 0.21 percent, to $73.16 a barrel as at 10:05 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $69.09 a barrel, up 15 cents, or 0.22 percent.
Both benchmarks settled down $2 a barrel on Monday following reports that Lebanon and Israel had agreed to the terms of a deal to end the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, which triggered a crude oil selloff.
Market reaction to the ceasefire news was “over the top,” said senior market analyst Priyanka Sachdeva at Phillip Nova.
While the news calmed fear of disruption to Middle Eastern supply, the Israel-Hamas conflict “never actually disrupted supplies significantly to induce war premiums” this year, Sachdeva said.
“The vulnerability of oil prices to geopolitical headlines lacks foundational backup and, coupled with the inability to maintain recent gains, reflects weakening global demand for oil and suggests a volatile market ahead.”
Iran, which supports Hezbollah, is an OPEC member with production of around 3.2 million barrels per day, or 3 percent of global output.
A ceasefire in Lebanon would reduce the likelihood that the incoming US administration will impose stringent sanctions on Iranian crude oil, said ANZ analysts.
If President-elect Donald Trump’s administration returned to a maximum-pressure campaign on Tehran, Iranian exports could shrink by 1 million bpd, analysts have said, tightening global crude flows.
In Europe, Ukraine’s capital Kyiv was under a sustained Russian drone attack on Tuesday, Mayor Vitali Klitschko said.
Hostilities between major oil producer Russia and Ukraine intensified this month after US President Joe Biden allowed Ukraine to use US-made weapons to strike deep into Russia in a significant reversal of Washington’s policy in the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
Elsewhere, OPEC+ may consider leaving its current oil output cuts in place from Jan. 1 at its next meeting on Sunday, Azerbaijan’s Energy Minister Parviz Shahbazov told Reuters, as the producer group had already postponed hikes amid demand worries.
On Monday, Trump said he would sign an executive order imposing a 25 percent tariff on all products coming into the US from Mexico and Canada. It was unclear whether this would include crude oil.
The vast majority of Canada’s 4 million bpd of crude exports go to the US Analysts have said it is unlikely Trump would impose tariffs on Canadian oil, which cannot be easily replaced since it differs from grades that the US produces.
“Contrary to today’s sell-off in risk assets, I think the tariff announcements are actually risk-positive because they are lower than consensus expectations,” said market analyst Tony Sycamore at IG.
Trump’s proposed additional 10 percent tariffs on Chinese imports are “well below” the 60 percent level he threatened pre-election, Sycamore said.
For the time being, markets are eyeing Trump’s plan to increase US oil production, which has been near record levels throughout 2022 to 2024 and absorbed supply disruption from geopolitical crises and sanctions, Phillip Nova’s Sachdeva said.
Saudi Arabia’s NEOM giga-project a ‘generational investment,’ minister says
- Foreign investors starting to come to NEOM, minister says
- On recent departure of NEOM’s CEO, minister says there is a time to pass baton
- Risk-return ‘very fair’ for outside investors, Al-Falih says
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s NEOM gigaproject, a futuristic region being built in the desert, is a “generational investment” with a long timeline, the country’s investment minister told Reuters on Monday, adding that foreign investment will pick up pace.
“NEOM was not meant to be a two-year investable opportunity. If anybody expected NEOM to be foreign investment in two, three or five years, then they have gotten (it) wrong — it’s a generational investment,” Minister Khalid Al-Falih said on the sidelines of the World Investment Conference in Riyadh.
“The flywheel is starting and it will gain speed as we go forward, as some of the foundational assets come to the market,” he said.
The world’s top oil exporter has poured hundreds of billions of dollars into development projects through the Kingdom’s $925 billion sovereign fund, the Public Investment Fund, as it undergoes an economic agenda dubbed Vision 2030 to cut dependence on fossil fuels.
NEOM, a Red Sea urban and industrial development nearly the size of Belgium that is meant to eventually house 9 million people, is central to Vision 2030.
NEOM announced this month its long-time chief executive, Nadhmi Al-Nasr, had stepped down, without giving further details.
Asked what effect the departure would have on investors, the minister said the executive had done “a respectable job” but that “there is a time for everybody to pass on the baton.”
Asked if PIF will continue to do much of the spending on NEOM until more foreign funds come in, Al-Falih said it was not binary.
“I think foreign investors are starting to come to NEOM, they’re starting to channel capital. Some of the projects that the PIF will be doing will be financed through global capital pools, through some alternative and private capital. That’s taking place as we speak,” he said.
“So I urge you not to look at NEOM as being 100 percent PIF and then suddenly there will be a cliff and it will go private.”
Saudi Arabia, which is racing to attract $100 billion in annual foreign direct investment by the turn of the decade — reaching about a quarter of that in 2023 — has recently seen more co-investment deals between state entities and foreign investors.
“It’s always been the intent,” Al-Falih said of foreign inflows alongside state funds.
He noted that foreign investors were at times “still looking, still examining, still sometimes questioning,” but that now there was confidence in the profitability of investment opportunities and that “the risk-return trade-offs are very, very fair and positive to them.”
Saudi Arabia’s fintech demand offers growth prospects for UK firms: London Lord Mayor
RIYADH: UK-based fintech firms have an opportunity to address rising demand for fintech services in Saudi Arabia, according to the Lord Mayor of London.
Speaking on the sidelines of the 28th World Investment Conference in Riyadh, Alderman Alastair King highlighted the UK capital’s extensive expertise in fintech, particularly as the city works on digitizing national debt instruments.
He noted that such initiatives could provide opportunities for collaboration between the UK and Saudi Arabia’s growing fintech sector.
“We have incredible expertise in London in relation to fintech and financial technologies in general. I know there’s a great demand for that sector here in Saudi, so those are some of the areas we are concentrating on,” said the Lord Mayor.
“In the United Kingdom, we’ve just started to digitize our national gilts, what they call the debt instruments. Now, there’s a road ahead to digitize them, which is a wonderful opportunity to work on those types of things,” he said.
A gilt is a UK government bond issued in sterling, and London’s efforts to digitize these instruments could pave the way for similar initiatives in Saudi Arabia, added.
King went to say that the payments sector could also be explored, noting that the entire sector is being transformed by fintech and that there are enormous opportunities for collaboration.
Other sectors that could be devoloped include infrastructure, insurance, and legal services, as well as asset management, and banking.
“London is the number one global center for professional services in the world. Saudi Arabia is the fastest growing economy in the G20. There’s going to be a fantastic symbiosis between us, and we can do all sorts of things together,” the Lord Mayor said during the interview.
King also discussed the broader opportunities arising from Saudi Arabia’s energy transition and economic diversification, particularly in industries such as asset management, banking, and insurance. He emphasized the role of both large companies and small and medium-sized enterprises in fostering innovation.
“In London, as an extraordinary financial and professional services ecosystem, there is a symbiosis between small and medium-sized companies and the large ones. Part of my job is to go around to the British companies, whether small, medium, or large, and encourage them to take advantage of the international markets that are going to be available to us,” the Lord Mayor said.
“So, although the early adopters are the large companies, I think you often see real innovation coming out of the small and medium-sized companies,” he added.
The Lord Mayor added that he would consider it a success if more British firms expanded into Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council markets, particularly in professional services.
“I’d also view success as greater investment flows into financial and professional services in the UK,” he concluded.
Investment trends
During a panel discussion at the World Investment Conference, Nan Li Collins, senior director of investment and enterprise at the UN Conference on Trade and Development, discussed global investment trends, emphasizing the importance of effective regional policies and multilateral efforts to counteract fragmentation and protectionism.
“I think these are the efforts we need to promote globally for more multilateral reasons, for more regional integration, to lower trade and investment barriers, and then work with countries’ investment promotion agencies to look at how to strengthen investment facilitation,” she added.
During the discussion, Collins highlighted three key trends shaping the market.
“The first is the long-term trend of trade and investment,” she said, adding that while GDP and trade have grown steadily since the 2008 financial crisis, FDI has stagnated.
She identified global fracturing as the second trend, noting that investment is increasing in geopolitically aligned countries but declining in more distant ones.
The third trend is digitization, Collins said, adding that over the last decade, investment in digital services has risen from 60 percent to 80 percent, now accounting for the majority of new global FDI.
