Russia is playing S-400 card in Turkey for strategic purposes, say experts

Russian S-400 Triumph medium-range and long-range surface-to-air missile systems during the Victory Day parade at Red Square in Moscow, Russia, May 9, 2015. (Reuters)
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Updated 25 August 2021
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Russia is playing S-400 card in Turkey for strategic purposes, say experts

  • The Interfax news agency said that Kremlin and Ankara are about to sign a contract to supply Turkey with a second batch of S-400 air defense units
  • The statement, which is seen as a move to damage Turkey’s improved ties with the west and with Ukraine, coincided with the Crimea summit in Kiev

ANKARA: Amid increased contact between Turkey and the western world over developments in Afghanistan and the potential refugee influx, Russia has placed the S-400 missile defense system on the table – a move that experts see as a strategy to drive Turkey away from the US and Europe.

Based on the comments by the head of Russia’s arms exporter Rosoboronexport, the Interfax news agency said that Kremlin and Ankara are about to sign a contract to supply Turkey with a second batch of S-400 air defense units.

Turkish officials have not yet reacted to the claim.

The statement, which is seen as a move to damage Turkey’s improved ties with the west and with Ukraine, coincided with the Crimea summit in Kiev, which Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu attended earlier in the week.

Turkey’s initial purchase of S-400 from Russia was a sticking point with the US and the NATO allies, rendering Ankara subject to a series of US sanctions.

The US is concerned that the Russian defense system could compromise security if Russia becomes able to secretly acquire classified information on US and NATO weaponry.

The US has forbidden Turkey’s participation in the F-35 fighter jet program, and last month President Joe Biden said he would maintain sanctions on Turkey under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) for buying the Russian system.

New sanctions from Washington could be disastrous for Turkey when its economy is still weak amid pandemic conditions.

Turkey’s military test-fired the S-400 in the Black Sea province of Sinop in October 2020. However, it has not fully activated the defense system, in a move considered an olive branch to the new US administration.

“Considering that Turkey has not yet fully activated even the first batch of the S-400 system, it is not reasonable for Ankara to make a new agreement with Moscow on this issue,” Prof. Emre Ersen, a Russia expert at Marmara University in Istanbul, told Arab News.

Ersen thinks the repeated statements from Russian officials regarding the S-400 seem to reflect Russia’s unease about the prospects of closer Turkish-US ties under the Biden administration as Ankara has been trying to mend ties with its Western allies in the past few months.

“The latest developments in Afghanistan and Turkey’s possible role in this issue have provided a new momentum for Turkey’s strategic relations with the West,” he said.

Mevlut Cavusoglu and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov discussed the latest developments in Afghanistan on Aug. 18 and insisted on the necessity of ensuring security there.

But, a couple of days later Cavusoglu made a controversial statement during the Crimean Platform meeting in Kiev on Aug. 23, saying Turkey has not and will not recognize the illegal occupation of Crimea by Russia and will support Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

“Since the S-400 missiles remain the soft underbelly of Turkish-US relations, Moscow is most likely trying to keep this issue high on the agenda as a political instrument to make sure that Ankara remains distant from Washington,” Ersen said.

Under the $2.5 billion deal that was signed in 2017, Russia was to supply Turkey with four batteries of S-400 surface-to-air missiles.

“So far, Turkey has bought two batteries, and the second batch was optional. However, Ankara and Kremlin have been negotiating loan agreements for a couple of years. No official has spoken about the purchase of the second unit since January 2020,” Aydin Sezer, an Ankara-based Russia expert, said.

According to Sezer, Russia’s messages aim to keep Turkey away from the West at times when Ankara attaches importance to its transatlantic ties.

“It is not realistic to expect Ankara to proceed with the purchase of a second batch of S-400 when it is making lobbying efforts to return to the US F-35 fighter jet program at the same time. Therefore, it keeps its silence and will only react positively to such politically motivated calls when a new crisis emerges in its ties with the West,” he said.

Ankara and Washington held intense negotiations about the responsibility for security at Afghanistan’s Kabul international airport following NATO’s withdrawal and Turkey has used the airport mission offer as a potential area of cooperation to mend frayed ties with the US and other NATO allies, which have been tense over many issues.


With Hezbollah weakened, Lebanon to hold presidential vote

Candidates in focus include army commander General Joseph Aoun — said by Lebanese politicians to enjoy US approval. (File/AFP)
Updated 08 January 2025
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With Hezbollah weakened, Lebanon to hold presidential vote

  • Lebanon has not had a president for more than 2 years
  • Parliamentary vote takes place amidst historic regional shift

BEIRUT: Lebanon’s parliament will try to elect a president on Thursday, with officials seeing better chances of success in a political landscape shaken by Israel’s war with Hezbollah and the toppling of the group’s ally Bashar Assad in neighboring Syria.
The post, reserved for a Maronite Christian in the country’s sectarian power-sharing system, has been vacant since Michel Aoun’s term ended in October, 2023. None of the political groups in the 128-seat parliament have enough seats to impose their choice, and they have so far been unable to agree on a consensus candidate.
The vote marks the first test of Lebanon’s power balance since the Iran-backed Shiite group Hezbollah — which propelled its then Christian ally Aoun to the presidency in 2016 — emerged badly pummelled from the war with Israel.
It takes place against a backdrop of historic change in the wider Middle East, where the Assad-led Syrian state exercised sway over Lebanon for decades, both directly and through allies such as Hezbollah.
Reflecting the shifts, Hezbollah and its ally the Shiite Amal Movement led by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri have dropped their insistence on Suleiman Frangieh, their declared candidate for the last two years, and are ready to go with a less divisive figure, three senior sources familiar with their thinking said.
Candidates in focus include army commander General Joseph Aoun — said by Lebanese politicians to enjoy US approval — Jihad Azour, a senior International Monetary Fund official who formerly served as finance minister, and Maj. Gen. Elias Al-Baysari — head of General Security, a state security agency.
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati said he felt happy because “God willing, tomorrow we will have a new president,” according to a statement from his office.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot also expressed hope in comments to France Inter radio, saying the election was “a prerequisite for the continuation of this dynamic of peace” and also for Lebanon’s economic and social recovery.
However, two of the sources and an analyst cautioned that it was not yet certain any candidate would be elected. To win, a candidate must secure 86 votes in a first round, or 65 in a second round.
Hezbollah still seen with sway
Aoun, head of Lebanon’s US-backed army, would still need 86 votes because his election requires a constitutional amendment, as he is a still-serving state employee, Berri has said.
A State Department spokesperson said it was “up to Lebanon to choose its next president, not the United States or any external actor.”
“We have been consistent in our efforts to press Lebanon to elect a new president, which we see as important to strengthening Lebanon’s political institutions,” the spokesperson said.
Hezbollah official Wafiq Safa said last week there was “no veto” on Aoun. But the sources said Hezbollah, designated a terrorist group by the United States, will not support Aoun.
Aoun has a key role in shoring up the ceasefire brokered by Washington and Paris in November. The terms require the Lebanese military to deploy into south Lebanon as Israeli troops and Hezbollah withdraw forces.
Still reeling from a financial collapse in 2019, Lebanon desperately needs foreign aid to rebuild.
Much of the damage is in Shiite majority areas.
Hezbollah, its supply line to Iran severed by Assad’s ousting, has urged Arab and international support for Lebanon.
Nabil Boumonsef, deputy editor-in-chief of Annahar newspaper, was not certain anyone would be elected, even after the major shift in the balance of power in Lebanon, where Hezbollah’s weapons have long been a source of division.
Underlining the influence Hezbollah and Amal still wield, he said the only way a president could be elected would be if they agreed on Aoun or Azour. But if they tried to install their preferred candidate, this would “sever the oxygen from Lebanon.”
Saudi Minister Faisal bin Farhan said last October that Riyadh had never fully disengaged from Lebanon and that outside countries should not tell Lebanese what to do.


Red Cross urges unhindered aid access to flood-hit and freezing Gaza

Updated 08 January 2025
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Red Cross urges unhindered aid access to flood-hit and freezing Gaza

  • IFRC highlighted the deaths of eight newborn babies who had been living in tents without warmth or protection from rain

Geneva: The Red Cross called Wednesday for safe and unhindered access to Gaza to bring desperately needed aid into the war-torn Palestinian territory wracked by hunger and where babies are freezing to death.
Heavy rain and flooding have ravaged the makeshift shelters in Gaza, leaving thousands with up to 30 centimeters of water inside their damaged tents, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies said.
The dire weather conditions were “exacerbating the unbearable conditions” in Gaza, it said, pointing out that many families were left “clinging on to survival in makeshift camps, without even the most basic necessities, such as blankets.”
Citing the United Nations, the IFRC highlighted the deaths of eight newborn babies who had been living in tents without warmth or protection from the rain and falling temperatures.
Those deaths “underscore the critical severity of the humanitarian crisis there,” IFRC Secretary-General Jagan Chapagain said in a statement.
“I urgently reiterate my call to grant safe and unhindered access to humanitarians to let them provide life-saving assistance,” he said.
“Without safe access — children will freeze to death. Without safe access — families will starve. Without safe access — humanitarian workers can’t save lives.”
Chapagain issued an “urgent plea to all the parties... to put an end to this human suffering. Now.”
The IFRC said the Palestine Red Crescent Society (PRCS) was striving to provide emergency health services and supplies to people in Gaza, with an extra sense of urgency during the cold winter months.
But it warned that “the lack of aid deliveries and access is making providing adequate support all but impossible.”
It also lamented the “continuing attacks on health facilities across the Gaza Strip,” which it said meant people were unable to access the treatment they need.
“In the north of Gaza, there are now no functioning hospitals,” it said.
The IFRC stressed that the closure of the main Rafah border crossing last May had had a dramatic impact on the humanitarian situation, warning that “only a trickle of aid is currently entering Gaza.”


South Syria fighters reluctant to give up weapons: spokesman

Updated 08 January 2025
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South Syria fighters reluctant to give up weapons: spokesman

  • Daraa became known as the birthplace of the Syrian uprising after protests erupted there in 2011 against Assad’s rule
  • Southern Operations Room, a coalition of armed groups from the southern province of Daraa formed on December 6 to help topple Assad

Bosra: Fighters in southern Syria who helped topple President Bashar Assad are reluctant to disarm and disband as ordered by the country’s new rulers, their spokesman told AFP.
An Islamist-led offensive ripped through Syria from the north and into Damascus on December 8, bringing to a sudden end five decades of rule by the Assad clan.
On December 25, the country’s new Islamist rulers said they had reached an agreement with rebel groups on their dissolution and integration under the defense ministry.
New leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa said the authorities would “absolutely not allow there to be weapons in the country outside state control.”
But a spokesman for the Southern Operations Room, a coalition of armed groups from the southern province of Daraa formed on December 6 to help topple Assad, said the alliance did not agree.
“We’re not convinced by the idea of dissolving armed groups,” said its spokesman Naseem Abu Orra.
“We’re an organized force in the south... headed by officers who defected” from Assad’s army, he told AFP in Daraa’s town of Bosra.
“We can integrate the defense ministry as a pre-organized entity... We have weapons, heavy equipment,” he said.
Abu Orra said the group, led by local leader Ahmed Al-Awdeh, included thousands of men, without any Islamist affiliation.
Awdeh has good relations with former Assad ally Russia, as well as neighboring Jordan and the United Arab Emirates, sources close to his group said.
Daraa became known as the birthplace of the Syrian uprising after protests erupted there in 2011 against Assad’s rule.
As they spread across the country, government forces cracked down on the demonstrators, triggering defections from the army and one of the deadliest wars of the century.
After losing swathes of territory to rebels and jihadists, Assad’s forces clawed back control of much of the country with the backing of Iran and Russia.
Daraa returned to government control in 2018, but under a deal mediated by Russia, rebels were allowed to keep their weapons and continue to ensure security in their region.
Then, after more than 13 years of civil war that had killed more than half a million people and ravaged the country, everything changed.
In the north of Syria, an Islamist-led rebel coalition called Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) moved rapidly out of its bastion on the Turkish border to seize second city Aleppo from Assad’s forces on December 1.
Its fighters then advanced southwards toward the cities of Hama and Homs on their way to the capital.
“We... decided to begin liberating the south of the country to reach Damascus” from the other direction, Abu Orra said.
He said they elaborated their own military plans in Daraa, but there was “some coordination” with HTS in the north.
Several witnesses have told AFP that they saw Awdeh’s men, recognizable by their headdress typical of southern Syria, posted near the Central Bank and in several neighborhoods in the early hours of December 8.
By then, Assad had already fled the country, former officials have told AFP.
“It was chaos but we were briefly able to take control of vital institutions to ensure their protection,” Abu Orra said.
He said the Southern Operations Room also stood guard outside several embassies, including those of Egypt and Jordan, and led some foreign diplomats to a prominent hotel to ensure their safety.
He said “several foreign countries” had called Awdeh to request his help.
When HTS forces arrived in town at the end of the afternoon, the Southern Operations Room withdrew to Daraa to avoid “chaos or armed clashes,” Abu Orra said.
Two days later, Awdeh met Syria’s new leader Sharaa. But he did not attend the December 25 meeting during which other rebel factions agreed to disband and join a future army.


Israeli strikes kill dozens in Gaza amid stepped up ceasefire push

Updated 53 min 45 sec ago
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Israeli strikes kill dozens in Gaza amid stepped up ceasefire push

  • An airstrike killed at least 10 people in a multi-story house in the Sheikh Radwan neighborhood
  • In Deir Al-Balah city in central Gaza, a total of seven people were killed

CAIRO: Israeli military strikes across Gaza killed at least 27 people on Wednesday, Palestinian medics said, as international mediators stepped up efforts to seal a ceasefire and hostage exchange deal between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas.
An airstrike killed at least 10 people in a multi-story house in the Sheikh Radwan neighborhood of Gaza City, while another killed five in the nearby Zeitoun suburb, medics said.
In Deir Al-Balah city in central Gaza, where hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians are sheltering, and in Jabalia, the largest of Gaza’s eight historic refugee camps, a total of seven people were killed, they said.
Israel’s military said it struck Hamas militants operating in a school in Jabalia, and that it took steps to minimize risk to civilians.
Later on Wednesday, an Israeli airstrike killed five Palestinians inside the public garden in Gaza City, medics said. There was no Israeli military comment.
Such mass casualties are a daily occurrence in Gaza, where more than 46,000 Palestinians have now been killed in Israel’s 15-month-long assault against Hamas, according to health officials in the enclave.
As Israel continued its bombardments, the United States, Qatar and Egypt were making intensive efforts to reach a ceasefire deal, with one source close to the talks saying this was the most serious attempt to reach a deal so far.
The outgoing US administration has called for a final push for a deal before President Joe Biden leaves office, and many in the region view president-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20 as an unofficial deadline.
“Things are better than ever before, but there is no deal yet,” the source told Reuters.
Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff said overnight he hopes to have good things to report about Israeli hostages held by the time Trump is sworn in as president. A deal would also involve the release of Palestinians held in Israeli jails.
The Gaza Health Ministry meanwhile warned that Nasser Hospital and the Gaza European Hospital might stop operations in a few hours unless the Israelis stop restricting the flow of fuel to the hospitals.
It later said it received a limited amount of fuel that would delay a complete halt of operations until Thursday unless more fuel arrives.
Israel denies hindering humanitarian relief to Gaza.
The country launched its assault on Gaza after Hamas fighters stormed southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing 1,200 people and capturing more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.
Its Gaza campaign has laid waste to much of the enclave. Most of the territory’s 2.1 million people have been displaced multiple times and face acute shortages of food and medicine, humanitarian agencies say.
On Wednesday, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies said heavy rains and flooding had left families living in damaged tents with up to 30 cm of water in them, “clinging on to survival without even the most basic necessities, such as blankets.”
Israel and Hamas both accuse the other of blocking a ceasefire and hostage exchange deal by adhering to conditions that have torpedoed all previous peace efforts for more than a year.
On Tuesday, Hamas stood by its demand that it will only free its remaining hostages if Israel agrees to end the war and withdraw all its troops from Gaza. Israel says it will not end the war until Hamas is dismantled and all hostages are free.


EU could lift some Syria sanctions quickly, says French FM

Updated 08 January 2025
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EU could lift some Syria sanctions quickly, says French FM

  • Some Syria sanctions ‘could be lifted quickly’: French top diplomat

PARIS: European Union sanctions in Syria that obstruct the delivery of humanitarian aid and hinder the country’s recovery could be lifted swiftly, France’s foreign minister said Wednesday.
The United States on Monday issued a sanctions exemption for transactions with governing institutions in Syria for six months after the end of Bashar Assad’s rule to try to ease the flow of humanitarian assistance.
Speaking to France Inter radio, Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said the EU could take a similar decision soon without giving precise timing, while adding that lifting more political sanctions would depend on how Syria’s new leadership handled the transition and ensured exclusivity.
“There are other (sanctions), which today hinder access to humanitarian aid, which hinder the recovery of the country. These could be lifted quickly,” said Barrot, who met Syria’s de facto leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa on Friday with Germany’s foreign minister.
“Finally, there are other sanctions, which we are discussing with our European partners, which could be lifted, but obviously depending on the pace at which our expectations for Syria regarding women and security are taken into account.”
Three European diplomats speaking on condition of anonymity said the EU would seek to agree to lift some sanctions by the time the bloc’s 27 foreign ministers meet in Brussels on Jan. 27.
Two of the diplomats said one aim was to facilitate financial transactions to allow funds to return to the country, ease air transport and lessen sanctions targeting the energy sector to improve power supplies.
Syria suffers from severe power shortages, with state-supplied electricity available two or three hours per day in most areas. The caretaker government says it aims to provide electricity for up to eight hours per day within two months.
The US waivers allow some energy transactions and personal remittances to Syria until July 7, but do not remove any sanctions.