No end in sight: Lebanon’s government crisis rages on as country on its knees
Despite the Beirut Port explosion, soaring hyperinflation, food insecurity and crippling fuel shortages, the country’s leaders continue to prevaricate
Najib Mikati is the latest to take on the mantle, promising the swift formation of a government when he was appointed PM-designate on Jul. 26
Updated 26 August 2021
Georgi Azar
DUBAI: More than 12 months since Lebanon’s cabinet resigned and with the country teetering on the brink of collapse, politicians look unlikely to form a much-needed government any time soon, sources warn.
Despite one of the world’s largest-ever non-nuclear explosions killing more than 200 people, soaring hyperinflation, food insecurity and crippling fuel shortages, leaders have continued to dig their heels in while two designated prime ministers have come and gone.
Najib Mikati, a billionaire businessman and former PM, is the latest to take on the mantle, promising a swift formation of a government within a month when he was appointed on Jul. 26.
“I gave my proposals, President Michel Aoun approved most of them and he made some remarks which are acceptable. God willing, we will be able to form a government soon,” Mikati said two days later.
A month has passed, and Mikati is facing the same fate as his two predecessors — Mustapha Adib and Saad Hariri — who both failed to come to terms with Aoun.
Mikati is set to meet with the president on Thursday afternoon, with sources noting that both men are far from coming to terms on a government.
“I believe Mikati will be forced to step down at some point like the others,” Mustapha Allouche, the Future Movement’s vice president, the party formed by Hariri’s late father, told Arab News.
According to Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing model, the president, a Maronite Christian, and the prime minister-designate, a Sunni Muslim, must both agree on a cabinet lineup in unison that is split equally between Christians and Muslims.
“What is happening now is merely a continuation of what has transpired over the past 12 months, with each political bloc maneuvering based on its own calculations,” Rosana Bou Monsef, a political analyst and veteran columnist for Lebanese daily An-Nahar, told Arab News.
At the core of the issue, she said, is the president’s Free Patriotic Movement trying to secure favorable terms in the upcoming government, which could stay in power until after Aoun leaves office next year.
Lebanon is set to hold parliamentary elections in May, which given the turbulent political landscape and security situation, could be delayed. This would pave the way for the upcoming government to stay in place, take key decisions moving forward and exert pressure on political opponents.
“It is becoming increasingly clear that the problem doesn’t lie with who will head the government but with the president’s group’s unwillingness to form a government except on its terms,” Bou Monsef said.
After nine months of grueling negotiations and a number of public spats with the president, Hariri stepped down in mid-July, saying “God help Lebanon” as he left the presidential palace.
Hariri had accused the president of blocking the formation of a cabinet in which the FPM, the party he founded and currently headed by his son-in-law MP Gebran Bassil, lacks veto power.
Eddy Maalouf, an FPM parliamentarian, denied the accusations, telling Arab News that the deadlock stems from Hariri and Mikati’s attempts to encroach on the constitution and name several Christian ministers.
“They must afford the president’s bloc the same rights afforded to the other parties,” he said.
Further complicating matters is Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah’s announcement on Aug. 19 that the party had secured fuel shipments from Iran.
Amid typical governmental absenteeism, the Iranian-backed Hezbollah has seemingly taken matters into its own hands, vowing that fuel tankers would set sail to Lebanon from the sanction-ridden country.
If Hezbollah follows through with its promise and the tankers actually do dock in Lebanon, it would open up the Lebanese state to the possibility of sanctions from the US, which has vowed to punish anyone that deals with Tehran.
“The Iranian fuel has put Mikati in an extremely tough position as his government program was based on cooperating with the international community and Gulf countries to secure financial assistance for Lebanon,” Bou Monsef told Arab News.
This was echoed by Maalouf, who maintained that Mikati is “hesitating in moving forward with the formation of the government in light of this development.”
The possibility of Mikati stepping down is now gaining traction, Bou Monsef noted, “despite the international community urging him to move forward with negotiations.”
Mikati’s resignation would have a ripple effect across Lebanon’s political landscape, Allouche said.
“If Mikati steps down, we’ll have to reconsider our calculations,” Allouche said when responding to a question on whether Hariri’s Future Movement bloc would resign from parliament.
Sami Fatfat, a Future Movement MP, held out hope that a government would be formed but assured his party is “looking into different options, including mass resignations” if Mikati steps down.
“The next couple of days will be decisive,” he noted, as Lebanon braces for the potential arrival of the first shipment of Iranian fuel coupled with the end of Mikati’s one-month deadline.
Trump claims ceasefire between Iran and Israel after Iran’s missile attack on US base in Qatar
Trump posted on Truth Social that the 24-hour phased-in ceasefire will begin about midnight Tuesday Eastern time. He said it would bring an “Official END” to the war
A senior White House official said Trump communicated directly with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to secure the ceasefire
Updated 24 June 2025
AP
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates: US President Donald Trump said that Israel and Iran had agreed to a “complete and total ceasefire” soon after Iran launched a limited missile attack Monday on a US military base in Qatar, retaliating for the American bombing of its nuclear sites. Iran said that as long as Israel stopped its attacks early Tuesday morning, it would halt theirs.
Israel did not immediately acknowledge any ceasefire, but there were no reports of Israeli strikes in Iran after 4 a.m. local. Heavy Israeli strikes continued in Tehran and other cities until shortly before that time.
“As of now, there is NO ‘agreement’ on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote in a post on X. “However, provided that the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people no later than 4 am Tehran time, we have no intention to continue our response afterwards.”
His message was posted at 4:16 a.m. Tehran time. Araghchi added: “The final decision on the cessation of our military operations will be made later.”
Trump posted on Truth Social that the 24-hour phased-in ceasefire will begin about midnight Tuesday Eastern time. He said it would bring an “Official END” to the war.
Iran targetted a US base in Qatar. (AFP)
The Israeli military declined to comment on Trump’s statement and the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not immediately respond to a message seeking comment.
Speaking on Iranian state television, an overnight anchor repeatedly referred to a “Trump-claimed” ceasefire, without saying whether Tehran accepted it. The anchor noted: “Simultaneously with Trump’s claim of a ceasefire, the Zionist enemy targeted several points in the cities of Tehran, Urmia and Rasht, including a residential area in the capital.”
Israel’s military put out a warning earlier that District 6 in Tehran could be struck.
Early Tuesday, Iran, mirroring the language and maps of the Israeli military, put out a warning telling people in Ramat Gan it would target “military infrastructure” there.
HIGHLIGHT
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Tuesday that there was no ceasefire agreement with Israel as of now, but if it stopped its attacks then Tehran would also stop firing
Iran’s attack Monday indicated it was prepared to step back from escalating tensions in the volatile region. The US was warned by Iran in advance, and there were no casualties, said Trump, who dismissed the attack as a “very weak response.”
Qatar condemned the attack on Al Udeid Air Base as “a flagrant violation” of its sovereignty, airspace and international law. Qatar said it intercepted all but one missile, though it was not clear if that missile caused any damage.
Iran said the volley matched the number of bombs dropped by the United States on Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend. Iran also said it targeted the base because it was outside of populated areas.
Those comments, made immediately after the attack, suggested Iran wanted to de-escalate with the United States, something Trump himself said after the strikes early Sunday on Iran.
Qatar Maj. Gen. Shayeq Al Hajjri said 19 missiles were fired at the base that is home to the Combined Air Operations Center, which provides command and control of air power across the region, as well as the 379th Air Expeditionary Wing, the largest such wing in the world. Trump said 14 missiles were fired, 13 were knocked down and one was “set free” because it posed no threat.
Iran announced the attack on state television, with a caption calling it “a mighty and successful response” to “America’s aggression.”
Just before the explosions, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on the social platform X: “We neither initiated the war nor seeking it. But we will not leave invasion to the great Iran without answer.”
Earlier reports that a missile was launched at a base housing American forces in Iraq were a false alarm, a senior US military official said. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to comment publicly, said debris from a malfunctioning Iranian missile targeting Israel had triggered an alert of an impending attack on the Ain Assad base.
Israel expands war to include symbolic targets
On the 11th day of the conflict, Israel and Iran traded airstrikes that have become a reality for civilians in both countries since Israel started the war to target Tehran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program.
Iran struck Israel with a barrage of missiles and drones while Israel said it attacked “regime targets and government repression bodies in the heart of Tehran.”
But Israeli officials insisted they did not seek the overthrow of Iran’s government, their archenemy since the country’s 1979 Islamic Revolution.
The latest strikes unfolded only hours after Trump himself mentioned the possibility of regime change a day after inserting America into the war with its stealth-bomber strike on three Iranian nuclear sites.
“If the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change???” he asked on his Truth Social website.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt later described Trump as “simply raising a question.”
A US Marine watches as Iranian-US demonstrators gather to call for regime change in Iran, as US President Donald Trump announced a cease-fire between Israel and Iran, in Los Angeles. (AFP)
The US strikes over the weekend prompted fears of a wider regional conflict. Iran said the US had crossed “a very big red line” with its risky gambit to strike with missiles and 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs.
Israel aims to wind down the war in the coming days, but that will depend on the Iranians, an Israeli official said on condition of anonymity to discuss high-level internal deliberations. The official spoke before Trump’s announcement about a ceasefire.
Israel’s preferred outcome is for Iran to agree to a ceasefire and reenter negotiations with the US over its nuclear program, the official said. But Israel is prepared for the possibility of an extended low-intensity war of attrition or period of “quiet for quiet,” in which it would closely monitor Iran’s activities and strike if it identifies new threats.
Tehran strikes open new chapter of war
Before the ceasefire announcement, the Israeli military warned Iranians it would continue to attack military sites around Tehran as its focus shifted to include symbolic targets. The military issued the warning on the social platform X, though Iranians are struggling to access the outside world due to an Internet shutdown.
In Tehran, Israel hit the headquarters of the military force that suppressed recent protests and blew open a gate at Evin prison. That facility is known for holding political activists. Iranian state television shared black-and-white surveillance footage of the strike at the facility known for holding dual nationals and Westerners often used by Iran as bargaining chips in negotiations with the West.
Evin also has specialized units for political prisoners run by the paramilitary, all-volunteer Revolutionary Guard, which answers only to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The facility is the target of both US and European Union sanctions.
There were no immediate reports of casualties in Iran or significant damage.
The price of oil tumbled. (AP)
Iranian state television aired footage it said was shot inside Evin, with prisoners under control. However, the Washington-based Abdorrahman Boroumand Center for Human Rights in Iran said many families of detainees “have expressed deep concern about the safety and condition of their loved ones” in the prison.
According to an Israeli official familiar with the government’s strategy, Israel is targeting these sites to put pressure on the Iranian administration but is not actively seeking to topple it. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal government deliberations.
The Israeli military also confirmed it struck roads around Iran’s Fordo enrichment facility to obstruct access to the site. The underground site was one of those hit in Sunday’s attack by the United States. The Israeli military did not elaborate.
In Vienna, the head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog said he expected there to be heavy damage at the Fordo facility following Sunday’s US airstrike there with sophisticated bunker-buster bombs.
Several Iranian officials, including Atomic Energy Organization of Iran spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi, have claimed Iran removed nuclear material from targeted sites ahead of time.
Iran presses on attacking Israel
Iran said its Monday attacks targeted the Israeli cities of Haifa and Tel Aviv, according to Iranian state television.
Global airlines had been suspended or reduced flights in the Middle East as the conflict between Israel and Iran raged. (AFP)
Explosions were also heard in Jerusalem, possibly from air defense systems in action, and Israel’s Magen David Adom emergency rescue service said there had been no reports of injuries.
In Israel, at least 24 people have been killed and more than 1,000 wounded in the war. Israeli strikes on Iran have killed at least 974 people and wounded 3,458 others, according to the Washington-based group Human Rights Activists.
The group, which has provided detailed casualty figures from Iranian unrest such as the protests surrounding the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022, said of those killed, it identified 387 civilians and 268 security force personnel.
The US has evacuated some 250 American citizens and their immediate family members from Israel by government, military and charter flights that began over the weekend, a State Department official said.
There are roughly 700,000 American citizens, most of them dual US-Israeli citizens, believed to be in Israel.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, who leads one of Iran’s closest allies, said Monday after meeting in Moscow with the Iranian foreign minister that they had explored “how we can get out of today’s situation.”
Putin called the Israeli and American attacks on Iran an “absolutely unprovoked aggression.”
NGOs urge closing of Gaza aid group, warn of possible ‘war crimes’ liability
The signatories include the International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH), the Palestinian Center for Human Rights, the American Center for Constitutional Rights, and the International Commission of Jurists
Updated 24 June 2025
AFP
UNITED NATIONS, United States: More than a dozen human rights organizations called Monday on the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), whose aid distribution has seen chaotic and deadly scenes, to cease its operations, warning of possible complicity in war crimes.
“This new model of privatized, militarized aid distribution constitutes a radical and dangerous shift away from established international humanitarian relief operations,” the 15 organizations said in an open letter.
It called the US-backed group’s operations “dehumanizing, repeatedly deadly and (contributing) to the forced displacement of the very population it purports to help.”
The groups urged GHF and all the organizations and individuals who have been supporting its work, to “to cease their operations.”
“Failure to do so may expose these organizations... to further risk of criminal and civil liability for aiding and abetting or otherwise being complicit in crimes under international law, including war crimes, crimes against humanity, or genocide in violation of international law,” the letter warned.
The signatories include the International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH), the Palestinian Center for Human Rights, the American Center for Constitutional Rights, and the International Commission of Jurists.
An officially private effort with opaque funding, GHF began operations on May 26 after Israel completely cut off supplies into Gaza for more than two months, sparking warnings of mass famine.
The United Nations and major aid groups have refused to cooperate with the foundation over concerns it was designed to cater to Israeli military objectives.
According to figures issued by the health ministry in the Hamas-run Gaza Strip, at least 450 people have been killed and nearly 3,500 injured since GHF began distributing meal boxes in late May.
GHF has denied responsibility for deaths near its aid points, contradicting statements from witnesses and Gaza rescue services.
‘We must ... go back to Iran’s nuclear sites and account for the stockpiles of uranium, including, most importantly, the 400 kg enriched to 60 percent,’ IAEA chief says
Updated 24 June 2025
Reuters
VIENNA: The UN nuclear watchdog on Monday demanded access to highly enriched uranium that Iran is thought to have moved before US attacks last weekend on its nuclear development sites.
“Iran, Israel and the Middle East need peace,” said Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency. “We must ... go back to Iran’s nuclear sites and account for the stockpiles of uranium, including, most importantly, the 400 kg enriched to 60 percent.”
US strikes on the underground Fordow nuclear site had probably caused “significant damage,” Grossi said, but it was impossible to assess without a visit.
Meanwhile Israel launched new strikes on Monday on the notorious Evin prison and Revolutionary Guard command centers in Tehran. Video footage showed rescue workers combing the flattened wreckage of a building at the prison, and carrying an injured man on a stretcher.
Israel said its strikes on Tehran were intended to hit the Iranian ruling apparatus broadly, and its ability to sustain power. Evin has long been Iran’s primary jail for political and security detainees. Several high-profile foreign prisoners are also held there.
Iraq removes, South Korea eases restrictions on import of Brazil chicken meat
South Korea ow restricts only chicken meat from the region affected by the bird flu, the ministry said, without providing more details
Updated 24 June 2025
Reuters
SAO PAULO: Iraq removed a trade ban it had imposed on Brazilian chicken meat after a bird flu case on a commercial farm last month, while South Korea eased its restrictions, the Brazilian Agriculture Ministry said on Monday.
South Korea ow restricts only chicken meat from the region affected by the bird flu, the ministry said, without providing more details. Both Iraq and South Korea had imposed nationwide trade bans to Brazilian chicken meat.
Brazil hopes to reverse trade bans after declaring last week itself free of the bird flu virus in commercial flocks following a 28-day period without any new commercial farm outbreaks.
What the intensifying Israel-Iran conflict says about the future of diplomacy
Efforts in Geneva to restart diplomacy now hang in the balance, with Iran and the US hardening positions after recent strikes
Analysts warn that without regional diplomacy led by powers like Saudi Arabia, the Israel-Iran conflict risks spiralling into a wider war
Updated 24 June 2025
ANAN TELLO AND SHEROUK ZAKARIA
LONON/DUBAI: The Iranian missile attack which was intercepted by Qatar on Monday night when it launched missiles against US troops stationed at Al-Udeid Air Base comes as a major setback for peace in the region.
As Iranian missiles lit up the sky over Doha in a retaliatory strike targeting the US military, a diplomatic solution to the Israel-Iran conflict, which has now drawn in the US, seemed further away than ever, with Tehran appearing to wash its hands of further nuclear talks.
Although no casualties were reported at Al-Udeid Air Base — the largest US base in the region — Iran’s counterattack is likely to invite additional American strikes and further regional escalation.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have both condemned the attack on Qatari sovereignty. The Saudi foreign ministry lambasted Iran for its “unjustifiable” attack, offering to deploy “all its capabilities” to support Doha.
Since the Israeli-Iran conflict dramatically escalated over the weekend, the mixed global response to Israeli and US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities is testing the limits of modern diplomacy and exposing deep divisions among major powers.
This handout satellite picture provided by Maxar Technologies and taken on June 22, 2025, shows damage after US strikes on the Isfahan nuclear enrichment facility in central Iran. (AFP)
What most seem to agree on is that while diplomacy is on the decline, it could have been the solution.
Experts say the fractured international reaction to the escalation reflects a shifting global order and the erosion of the post-Cold War consensus.
“There is no ‘global response’ to speak of at this moment,” Brian Katulis, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, told Arab News. “This Israel-Iran war is taking place in a fractured geopolitical context.”
He argues that divisions among the US, China and Russia “make it next to impossible to marshal a collective diplomatic effort in the way that the world did in previous eras, like the immediate post-Cold War period of the 1990s.
“That’s why we will continue to see a lot of empty words disconnected from the actions that are actually reshaping the Middle East as we know it.”
On June 13, Israel launched airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites including Natanz, Isfahan and Tehran, reportedly killing senior officials, nuclear scientists and civilians. In response, Iran launched “Operation True Promise III,” firing missiles and drones into Israel. Several struck Tel Aviv, Haifa and other cities, causing civilian casualties.
Despite initially assuring G7 allies that the US would stay out of the conflict, President Donald Trump reversed course on June 22, ordering B-2 bombers to strike Iran’s underground nuclear facilities with MOP “bunker-buster” bombs — weapons only the US possesses.
Although Trump declared that the strikes had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program, it remains unclear whether Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was destroyed or relocated in time. If material and technical capacity remain, diplomacy may be the only path to prevent Iran from eventually building a nuclear weapon — a goal the regime could now prioritize more urgently.
Even with severe military losses and the effective loss of airspace control, Iran appears undeterred. Hostilities with Israel continue, and the possibility of Iranian retaliation against US targets is growing. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has indicated that the war will not end until Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is removed from power.
Israeli rescuers search through the rubble at the site of an overnight Iranian missile strike in Bat Yam on June 15, 2025. (AFP)
The US entry into the conflict has triggered a range of diplomatic responses — from enthusiastic support to fierce condemnation. Netanyahu praised Trump’s decision as a “courageous choice” that would “alter history.” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, meanwhile, called it an “outrageous, grave and unprecedented violation” of international law, insisting Tehran reserves “all options” to defend its interests.
Iran’s ambassador to the UN demanded an emergency Security Council session and called the strikes “premeditated acts of aggression.”
Russia, a close ally of Iran, “strongly condemned” the US action. Its Foreign Ministry labeled the strikes a “gross violation of international law,” while Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, dismissed their impact and provocatively suggested some states might now help Iran obtain nuclear weapons.
China echoed the condemnation. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said the strikes “seriously violate the purposes and principles of the UN Charter,” and warned of regional destabilization.
FASTFACTS
China and Russia have condemned US strikes on Iran while the UN and Europe have appealed for deescalation.
Analysts say without regional diplomacy led by powers like Saudi Arabia, the Israel-Iran conflict risks spiraling into wider war.
Chinese Ambassador to the UN Fu Cong called on Israel to halt hostilities immediately and backed a UN resolution demanding an unconditional ceasefire. Chinese analysts have also warned that the conflict threatens global trade routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.
Other voices have called for diplomacy. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned of a “hazardous escalation,” stressing that “military solutions are not viable” and urging a return to negotiations.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer — positioning himself as a bridge between the US and Europe — highlighted the danger of the war spreading beyond the region. While stopping short of endorsing the US strikes, he reiterated that Iran must not develop nuclear weapons and called for negotiations to stabilize the region.
European powers had previously been pressing for a deal requiring Iran to halt uranium enrichment, curb its missile program and stop supporting proxy groups. But Iran has rejected a full halt, claiming its enrichment is for peaceful purposes.
With Western diplomacy faltering, regional actors are stepping in. Most Arab states — including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan and the Gulf states — have condemned Israel’s strikes on Iran and are working to deescalate tensions.
Still, these efforts have so far achieved little. Strikes continue, ceasefire mechanisms remain absent and attempts to coordinate sanctions or arms embargoes have stalled.
A narrow diplomatic window may remain. Recent Geneva meetings involving Iranian, US, and European officials showed conditional openness to talks. But the latest US strikes have likely hardened positions.
A plume of heavy smoke and fire rise over an oil refinery in southern Tehran, after it was hit in an overnight Israeli strike, on June 15, 2025. (AFP)
Analysts say the only viable path forward begins with renewed diplomacy, ideally starting with a ceasefire. Yet fundamental disagreements over Iran’s nuclear ambitions and widespread distrust leave a comprehensive solution elusive.
Some fear that Israel, emboldened by US support, may escalate its military campaign to seek regime change in Tehran — a move that would risk greater instability across the Middle East, as the world has seen in the recent attack over Qatar.
Others argue that Iran’s military retaliation is a necessary step before negotiations can resume. However, nobody seems to safely conclude just how far this retaliation will go.
Firas Maksad, managing director for the Middle East and North Africa at Eurasia Group, told CNN that without such a response, Iran would lack both international leverage and domestic legitimacy to reenter talks.
Still, he later added: “Diplomacy is dead for the foreseeable future.”
With Iran and Israel entrenched and global powers divided, prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough appear slim. Yet Katulis believes regional “swing states” — such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE — could help shift the dynamic.
“One of the biggest brakes on further escalation lies right in the heart of the Middle East itself,” he said. “The key ‘swing states’ like Saudi Arabia and the UAE could lead more regional collective efforts to avoid further escalation by working publicly and quietly with the main combatants to find pathways toward a diplomatic settlement.”
In geopolitical terms, these “swing states” balance relationships with Washington, Moscow and Beijing — and can influence outcomes through neutrality or engagement. Katulis believes Riyadh, in particular, could help change the calculus.
Right now, he said, Israel and Iran “have more incentives to engage in military action than they do to pursue diplomacy.” But “the key powers in the region like Saudi Arabia could do even more than they are already doing to change the calculus for Israel and Iran.”
Saudi Arabia has condemned Israel’s actions as violations of international law and warned that continued escalation threatens long-term regional stability. The Kingdom has urged the UN Security Council to take meaningful steps to prevent further deterioration and has refused to allow its airspace to be used in military operations — a clear signal of its neutrality and strategic caution.
Israeli first responders gather in front of a building destroyed by an Iranian strike in Tel Aviv on June 22, 2025. (AFP)
Looking ahead, the stakes remain dangerously high. Maksad has warned that unchecked escalation could have serious consequences.
“The last step in that escalatory ladder is to go after American bases, whether it is in the GCC, or perhaps even attempt to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, where some 20 percent of global energy passes through,” he told CNN.
As the war drags on, the fragmented international response highlights the fragility of global diplomacy and the difficulty of conflict resolution in an increasingly multipolar world.
For Tehran, halting enrichment altogether would not only undermine decades of strategic investment but also damage regime legitimacy. As Maksad put it, Tehran’s “entire prestige rests on enrichment.”
Still, he sees a potential way forward: Focusing not on enrichment itself, but on preventing a weapon. “That,” he said, “opens up the possibility of a negotiated outcome.”
