The perfect storm of crises behind Afghanistan’s humanitarian disaster

Afghan refugee Gul Pari (2nd R) sits with her family in a tent on the outskirts of Jalalabad. (AFP/File Photo)
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Updated 05 September 2021
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The perfect storm of crises behind Afghanistan’s humanitarian disaster

  • People struggling to cope with the collective impact of drought, conflict, COVID-19 and economic collapse
  • Having failed to develop its mineral extraction sectors, Afghanistan has few sources of government revenue

DUBAI: The news that the Biden administration is restarting US funding to aid programs in Afghanistan will be greeted with relief by international groups that have been warning of an economic collapse and a humanitarian catastrophe in the wake of the Taliban’s takeover of the country.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday that the US decision will benefit organizations such as the UN’s World Food Program (WFP), World Health Organization (WHO) and International Organization for Migration (IOM) among other independent groups that work through representatives and local staff based in the war-torn country.

According to an IOM estimate, up to 1.5 million could flee Afghanistan westward in search of safety and jobs in 2021. It is not just the fear of the cruelty and anachronistic morality of the Taliban that is causing Afghans to flee their homes; they are struggling with the economic fallout of the militants’ rapid capture of the country, including the capital Kabul on Aug. 15.

“We must not turn away. A far greater humanitarian crisis is just beginning,” Filippo Grandi, the UN’s High Commissioner for Refugees, said in a statement last week as the combined impact of runaway inflation, a plummeting currency, rising food prices and cash shortages forced hundreds of Afghans in Kabul to try to sell their meager possessions.

At the beginning of 2021, the UN said that a third of Afghanistan’s population was already facing food insecurity due to a second drought in three years. With very little functioning irrigation, Afghanistan relies on snow melting in its mountains to keep its rivers flowing and fields watered during the summer months. However, snowfall last winter was extremely low.

Climate scientists believe that a La Nina phenomenon and a weakening jet stream moving weather systems more slowly across the planet could be factors behind Afghanistan’s dry weather.

“It is hard to talk of a single crisis in Afghanistan at the moment,” Richard Trenchard, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) representative in Afghanistan, told Arab News. “Multiple crises are affecting the people of Afghanistan. Separate, distinct ones that often intersect and reinforce one another.

“Nowhere is this more evident than in Afghanistan’s rural areas. Millions of rural men, women and children are seeing their livelihoods collapse, and if the situation cannot be turned around in the near future, it could get so much worse, triggering spikes in hunger, economic collapse and large-scale displacement.”




A child stands at a camp for internally displaced people (IDP) where new apartment buildings are located in Kabul on June 21, 2021. (AFP/File Photo)

Food security in Afghanistan has been seriously compromised by an increase in prices over the past five years — by 10-20 percent according to some estimates — primarily because of drought, COVID-19’s impacts, steadily accelerating year-on-year inflation and seasonal changes.

To compound the situation, average incomes have fallen for 75 percent of people while personal debt has increased. According to assessments for the UN’s OCHA, about 73 percent of households reported having debt and 74 percent cited food as the main reason for borrowing.

In February, the now-deposed Afghan government predicted the country’s wheat crop would drop by nearly two million tons in 2021 and that more than three million livestock were in danger of dying due to a lack of fodder and water.

Added to this are “the continuing effects of COVID-19, in particular in terms of reduced remittances from abroad, growing market constraints, reduced purchasing power, and displacement and access issues resulting from recent conflicts, and now, we are seeing a growing cash crisis across the country,” Trenchard said.

“All of these are putting enormous pressures on millions of rural livelihoods. If these livelihoods cannot be protected and strengthened, then I fear further disaster looms in the coming months.

“We all know this, and we need to act soon. Now. The winter wheat planting season begins very soon, at the end of September. Seeds cannot wait. Farmers cannot wait. FAO aims to assist 250 000 vulnerable farming families — some 1.5 million people — for the upcoming winter wheat season.”

INNUMBERS

* 500,000 - Afghans expected to flee to neighboring countries.

* 7m - Afghans whose livelihoods are threatened by drought.

* 12m - Afghans facing food insecurity before Taliban takeover.

* $500m+ - US State Department annual spending until recently.

* $260m USAID money to be redirected to humanitarian programs.

Trenchard said that the FAO would continue to implement its Drought Response Plan, but funding was a major constraint.

“Planting begins in late September and runs into October in many areas. However, current funding will only enable FAO to support 110,000 families. That is almost 800,000 rural people. We are trying to urgently mobilize further resources, as this next winter wheat season is a tipping point. If we miss it, disaster looms.




Taliban fighters atop vehicles with Taliban flags parade along a road to celebrate after the US pulled all its troops out of Afghanistan, in Kandahar on September 1, 2021. (AFP)

“Needs are far greater than funding available,” he said, especially while the nation’s banks remain closed, making it extremely difficult to get money into Afghanistan. The FAO response is short by $18 million.

Part of the problem is the continuing lack of certainty in Afghanistan as the Taliban, a UN-designated terror group, struggles to form a government and $10 billion of the country’s central bank assets remains frozen in overseas accounts.

“There are no banking and money transfers,” Shakib Noori, the US-based director of sustainable solutions at AMS, told Arab News. “That’s the biggest challenge now.”

Another major challenge is the closure of Kabul airport, which has prevented aid flights from arriving in the country.

On Aug. 30, the WHO said that it had established an air bridge allowing it to bring essential medical supplies into Afghanistan for the first time since the Taliban took power.

However, Ahmed Al-Mandhari, WHO regional director for the eastern Mediterranean, said in a statement that these supplies could only “partially replenish stocks of health facilities in Afghanistan and ensure that — for now — WHO-supported health services can continue.”

Afghanistan had enjoyed a period of rapid economic growth in the years after the arrival of Western forces in 2001 thanks to an influx of foreign aid money.

According to the World Bank, Afghanistan’s “annual growth averaged 9.4 percent between 2003 and 2012, driven by a booming aid-driven services sector, and strong agricultural growth.”




Defiant Afghan women held a rare protest on September 2 saying they were willing to accept the all-encompassing burqa if their daughters could still go to school under Taliban rule. (AFP)

However, a number of factors, including a resumption of the Taliban insurgency, reduced development aid, drought, and endemic corruption at every level of government, soon caused economic growth to slow by 2.5 percent per year.

Having failed to develop its potentially lucrative mining and mineral extraction sectors, the country has few sources of revenue to make up for the loss of international assistance.

As part of the Biden administration’s latest plan to restart humanitarian aid flows, the US Treasury Department has issued a special waiver for government aid programs, enabling USAID to redirect funding to UN food, health and migration programs.

However, Afghanistan still faces the possibility of additional international sanctions if the Taliban rulers fail to provide tolerant, inclusive governance or honor their counterterrorism and human-rights promises. The World Bank halted financial aid to the country amid concerns about “the country’s development prospects, especially for women,” a spokesperson said on Aug. 25.




A man paints over murals on a concrete wall along a street in Kabul on September 4, 2021. (AFP)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), for its part, has said that Afghanistan will no longer be able to access lenders’ resources due to “a lack of clarity within the international community” over the new government in Kabul.

Afghans and the international community can do little but wait and see what kind of Taliban regime emerges in Kabul — one that is moderate in its treatment of women and minorities, or one that repeats the brutality and repression of its 1996-2001 predecessor.

“If, or when, sanctions are put in place, Afghanistan’s developing economy simply can’t sustain a nation where more than 50 percent of the population faces poverty before the recent turn of events. And it is likely that this number will increase significantly,” said Noori of AMS.

“The COVID-19 crisis, political crisis, economic crisis — all of this put together, Afghanistan is being cursed.”

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Twitter: @rebeccaaproctor


SpaceX's latest Starship test flight ends with another explosion

Updated 6 sec ago
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SpaceX's latest Starship test flight ends with another explosion

Nearly two months after an explosion sent flaming debris raining down on the Turks and Caicos, SpaceX launched another mammoth Starship rocket on Thursday, but lost contact minutes into the test flight as the spacecraft came tumbling down and broke apart.
This time, wreckage from the latest explosion was seen streaming from the skies over Florida. It was not immediately known whether the spacecraft's self-destruct system had kicked in to blow it up.
The 403-foot (123-meter) rocket blasted off from Texas. SpaceX caught the first-stage booster back at the pad with giant mechanical arms, but engines on the spacecraft on top started shutting down as it streaked eastward for what was supposed to be a controlled entry over the Indian Ocean, half a world away. Contact was lost as the spacecraft went into an out-of-control spin.
Starship reached nearly 90 miles (150 kilometers) in altitude before trouble struck and before four mock satellites could be deployed. It was not immediately clear where it came down, but images of flaming debris were captured from Florida, including near Cape Canaveral, and posted online.
The space-skimming flight was supposed to last an hour.
“Unfortunately this happened last time too, so we have some practice at this now,” SpaceX flight commentator Dan Huot said from the launch site.
SpaceX later confirmed that the spacecraft experienced “a rapid unscheduled disassembly" during the ascent engine firing. "Our team immediately began coordination with safety officials to implement pre-planned contingency responses,” the company said in a statement posted online.
Starship didn't make it quite as high or as far as last time.
NASA has booked Starship to land its astronauts on the moon later this decade. SpaceX’s Elon Musk is aiming for Mars with Starship, the world’s biggest and most powerful rocket.
Like last time, Starship had mock satellites to release once the craft reached space on this eighth test flight as a practice for future missions. They resembled SpaceX’s Starlink internet satellites, thousands of which currently orbit Earth, and were meant to fall back down following their brief taste of space.
Starship’s flaps, computers and fuel system were redesigned in preparation for the next big step: returning the spacecraft to the launch site just like the booster.
During the last demo, SpaceX captured the booster at the launch pad, but the spacecraft blew up several minutes later over the Atlantic. No injuries or major damage were reported.
According to an investigation that remains ongoing, leaking fuel triggered a series of fires that shut down the spacecraft’s engines. The on-board self-destruct system kicked in as planned.
SpaceX said it made several improvements to the spacecraft following the accident, and the Federal Aviation Administration recently cleared Starship once more for launch.
Starships soar out of the southernmost tip of Texas near the Mexican border. SpaceX is building another Starship complex at Cape Canaveral, home to the company’s smaller Falcon rockets that ferry astronauts and satellites to orbit.

Trump casts doubt on NATO solidarity, despite it aiding the US after Sept. 11

Updated 11 min 44 sec ago
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Trump casts doubt on NATO solidarity, despite it aiding the US after Sept. 11

  • Trump also suggested that the US might abandon its commitments to the alliance if member countries don’t meet defense spending targets
  • Last year, NATO’s Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said a record 23 of NATO’s 32 member nations had hit the military alliance’s defense spending target

WASHINGTON: President Donald Trump on Thursday expressed uncertainty that NATO would come to the US’s defense if the country were attacked, though the alliance did just that after Sept. 11 — the only time in its history that the defense guarantee has been invoked.
Trump also suggested that the US might abandon its commitments to the alliance if member countries don’t meet defense spending targets, a day after his pick for NATO ambassador assured senators that the administration’s commitment to the military alliance was “ironclad.”
Trump’s comments denigrating NATO, which was formed to counter Soviet aggression during the Cold War, are largely in line with his yearslong criticism of the alliance, which he has accused of not paying its fair share toward the cost of defense. But they come at a time of heightened concern in the Western world over Trump’s cozy relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has long seen NATO as a threat, and as the US president seeks to pressure Ukraine into agreeing to a peace deal with the country that invaded it three years ago.

US President Donald Trump reacts at the Oval Office at the White House in Washington on March 6, 2025. (REUTERS)

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth sent the alliance into upheaval last month when he said in a speech that the US would not participate in any peacekeeping force in Ukraine, which is not a NATO member, and would not defend any country that participated in it if attacked by Russia.
Trump said Thursday in the Oval Office that other countries would not come to the defense of the US — though they have done exactly that, in the only instance that the Article 5 defense guarantee was invoked.
“You know the biggest problem I have with NATO? I really, I mean, I know the guys very well. They’re friends of mine. But if the United States was in trouble, and we called them, we said, ‘We got a problem, France. We got a problem, couple of others I won’t mention. Do you think they’re going to come and protect us?’ They’re supposed to. I’m not so sure.”
Article 5 was invoked after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, leading to NATO’s largest operation in Afghanistan. France’s military participated in the operation.
“We are loyal and faithful allies,” French President Emmanuel Macron responded Thursday, expressing “respect and friendship” toward US leaders.
“I think we’re entitled to expect the same,” he said.
Macron invoked “centuries-old history,” namechecking the Marquis de Lafayette, a 19-year-old French nobleman, who was a major-general in the American Continental Army during the Revolutionary War, and Gen. John Pershing, commander of the American army in France during World War I. Macron added that a few days ago, he met American World War II veterans who landed on Omaha Beach as part of the D-Day invasion of Nazi-occupied France.
France and the US “have always been there for each other,” Macron said.

France's President Emmanuel Macron gestures as he addresses the media during a press conference in Brussels on March 6, 2025, to discuss continued support for Ukraine and European defense. (AFP)

When asked Thursday if it he was making it US policy that the US would not defend NATO countries that don’t meet military spending targets, Trump said, “well, I think it’s common sense, right? If they don’t pay, I’m not going to defend them. No, I’m not going to defend them.”
Trump has suggested since his 2016 presidential campaign that the US under his leadership might not comply with the alliance’s mutual defense guarantees and would only defend countries that met targets to commit 2 percent of their gross domestic products on military spending.
The US is the most powerful nation of the seven-decade alliance, has the largest economy among members and spends more on defense than any other member.
The US was one of 12 nations that formed NATO following World War II to counter the threat posed by the Soviet Union to Western European during the Cold War. Its membership has since grown to 32 countries, and its bedrock mutual defense guarantee, known as Article 5, states that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all.
Trump on Thursday also seemed to suggest the US commitment to NATO might be leveraged in his trade war as he seeks to target what he says are unfair trade policies with other nations, including the European Union.
“I view NATO as potentially good, but you’ve got to get, you’ve got to get some good thinking in NATO. It’s very unfair, what’s been happening,” Trump said. “Until I came along, we were paying close to 100 percent of NATO. So think of it, we’re paying 100 percent of their military, and they’re screwing us on trade.”
On Wednesday, Trump’s choice for NATO ambassador, Matt Whitaker, said at his confirmation hearing that in regards to the US commitment to the NATO alliance and specifically Article 5, “It will be ironclad.”
Last year, NATO’s Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said a record 23 of NATO’s 32 member nations had hit the military alliance’s defense spending target.
Trump has taken credit for countries meeting those targets because of his threats, and Stoltenberg himself has said Trump was responsible for getting other nations to increase their spending.
 


Hegseth dismisses as “garbage” critique of US stance on Russia

Updated 07 March 2025
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Hegseth dismisses as “garbage” critique of US stance on Russia

WASHINGTON: US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Thursday dismissed as “garbage” accusations that Washington had taken a pro-Russia stance, saying President Donald Trump was pursuing a peaceful end to Russia’s three-year-old invasion of Ukraine.
Trump has piled pressure on Ukraine, pausing all US military and intelligence assistance to Kyiv, as his administration pushes for a negotiated solution to the biggest conflict in Europe since World War Two.
Trump and his advisers, including Hegseth, have also declined to brand Russia as the aggressor.
“The press is interested in narratives. Our president is interested in peace. So we will get characterized one way or another: ‘Oh, your stance is pro-Russia or pro-’ ... it’s all garbage,” Hegseth told reporters.
“The President got elected to bring peace in this conflict, and he is working with both sides in a way that only President Trump can ... to bring them to the table to end the killing.”
Hegseth spoke alongside British Defense Secretary John Healey, who aimed to discuss a peace plan for Ukraine during a meeting at the Pentagon on Thursday.
“It’s the detail of those discussions which are rightly behind the scenes that the defense secretary and I will now pursue this afternoon,” Healey said.
Over the weekend, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov praised Trump’s “common sense” aim to end the war, while accusing European powers which have rallied around Kyiv of seeking to prolong the conflict.
Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had acrimonious talks at the White House on February 28 but since then the two sides have resumed work on a revenue-sharing minerals deal.
At his speech to a joint session of Congress on Tuesday, Trump said he had received a letter from Zelensky in which the Ukrainian leader said he was “ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible.”
Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, said on Thursday he is in discussions with Ukraine for a peace agreement framework to end hostilities with Russia and that a meeting is planned next week with the Ukrainians in Saudi Arabia.
“We’re now in discussions to coordinate a meeting with the Ukrainians,” Witkoff told reporters at the White House. He said it would likely be in Riyadh or Jeddah.


EU leaders commit to working together after Trump signals that Europe must defend itself

Updated 07 March 2025
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EU leaders commit to working together after Trump signals that Europe must defend itself

  • “Europe faces a clear and present danger, and therefore Europe has to be able to protect itself, to defend itself,” said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen
  • Pledge underscores sea change in geopolitics spurred on by Trump, who has undermined 80 years of cooperation

BRUSSELS: European Union leaders on Thursday committed to working together to bolster the continent’s defenses and to free up hundreds of billions of euros for security after US President Donald Trump’s repeated warnings that he would cut them adrift to face the threat of Russia alone.
With the growing conviction that they will now have to fend for themselves, countries that have faltered on defense spending for decades held emergency talks in Brussels to explore new ways to beef up their security and ensure future protection for Ukraine.
“Today history is being written,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told reporters after the summit ended.
She said the 27 EU leaders are “determined to ensure Europe’s security and to act with the scale, the speed and the resolve that this situation demands. We are determined to invest more, to invest better and to invest faster together.”
The pledge underscored a sea change in geopolitics spurred on by Trump, who has undermined 80 years of cooperation based on the understanding that the US would help protect European nations following World War II.
The leaders signed off on a move to loosen budget restrictions so that willing EU countries can increase their military spending. They also urged the European Commission to seek new ways “to facilitate significant defense spending” in all member states, a statement said.
The EU’s executive branch estimates that around 650 billion euros ($702 billion) could be freed up that way.
The leaders also took note of a commission offer of loans worth 150 billion euros ($162 billion) to buy new military equipment and invited EU headquarters staff “to examine this proposal as a matter of urgency.”
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a staunch supporter of Trump and considered to be Russian President Vladimir Putin’s closest ally in Europe, refused to endorse part of the summit statement in favor of Ukraine.
But the 26 other EU leaders approved the bloc’s stance that there can be no negotiations on Ukraine without Ukraine and that the Europeans must be involved in any talks involving their security. The Europeans have so far been sidelined in the US-led negotiations with Russia.

In other developments, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said talks between Ukraine and the US on ending the war will take place in Saudi Arabia next week. In his nightly address, Zelensky said he would travel to Saudi Arabia on Monday to meet the country’s crown prince, and his team would stay on to hold talks with US officials.
In recent weeks, Trump has overturned old certainties about the reliability of the US as a security partner as he embraces Russia, withdraws American support for Ukraine and upends the tradition of cooperation with Europe that has been the bedrock of Western security for generations.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, whose country holds the EU’s rotating presidency, said that three years of war in Ukraine and a shift in attitudes in Washington “pose entirely new challenges for us, and Europe must take up this challenge ... and it must win.”
“We will arm ourselves faster, smarter and more efficiently than Russia,” Tusk said.
Spending plans win early support
Zelensky welcomed the plan to loosen budget rules and expressed hopes that some of the new spending could be used to strengthen Ukraine’s own defense industry, which can produce weapons more cheaply than elsewhere in Europe and closer to the battlefields where they are needed.
“We are very thankful that we are not alone, and these are not just words. We feel it. It’s very important,” Zelensky said, looking far more relaxed among Europe’s leaders in Brussels than almost a week ago when he received a verbal lashing from Trump in Washington.
Friedrich Merz, the likely next chancellor of Germany, and summit chairman Antonio Costa discussed ways to fortify Europe’s defenses on a short deadline. Merz pushed plans this week to loosen his nation’s rules on running up debt to allow for higher defense spending.

 

Others too appeared ready to do more.
“Spend, spend, spend on defense and deterrence. That’s the most important message,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told reporters.
The call is a sharp departure from decades of decline in military spending in Europe, where defense often ranked low in many budgetary considerations after the Cold War.
In an address to his country Wednesday evening, French President Emmanuel Macron said the bloc would “take decisive steps.”
“Member states will be able to increase their military spending,” he said, noting that “massive joint funding will be provided to buy and produce some of the most innovative munitions, tanks, weapons and equipment in Europe.”
Macron conferred with his EU counterparts about the possibility of using France’s nuclear deterrent to protect the continent from Russian threats.
Helping EU countries find more money
The short-term benefits of the budget plan offered by von der Leyen were not obvious. Most of the increased defense spending would have to come from national budgets at a time when many countries are already overburdened with debt.
Part of the proposal includes measures to ensure struggling member states will not be punished for going too deep into the red if additional spending is earmarked for defense.
“Europe faces a clear and present danger, and therefore Europe has to be able to protect itself, to defend itself,” she said.

 

France is struggling to reduce an excessive annual budget deficit of 5 percent of GDP, after running up its total debt burden to 112 percent of GDP with spending on relief for businesses and consumers during the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Five other countries using the euro currency have debt levels over 100 percent of GDP: Belgium, Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal.
Europe’s largest economy, Germany, has more room to borrow, with a debt level of 62 percent of GDP.
Pressing security needs in Ukraine
Part of any security plan would be to help Ukraine defend itself from Russian attacks such as the one that hit Zelensky’s hometown overnight.
A Russian missile killed four people staying at a hotel in Kryvyi Rih, in central Ukraine, shortly after volunteers from a humanitarian organization moved in. The volunteers included Ukrainian, American and British nationals, but it wasn’t clear whether those people were among the 31 who were wounded.
Early this week, Trump ordered a pause in US military supplies being sent to Ukraine as he sought to press Zelensky to engage in negotiations to end the war with Russia. The move brought fresh urgency to Thursday’s summit.
But the meeting in Brussels did not address Ukraine’s most pressing needs. It was not aimed at drumming up more arms and ammunition to fill any supply vacuum created by the US freeze. Nor will all nations agree to unblock the estimated 183 billion euros ($196 billion) in frozen Russian assets held in a Belgian clearing house, a pot of ready cash that could be seized.


Macron tells Trump France is ‘loyal and steadfast ally’ in NATO

Updated 07 March 2025
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Macron tells Trump France is ‘loyal and steadfast ally’ in NATO

BRUSSELS: French President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday said France was a “loyal and steadfast ally” in NATO after US leader Donald Trump questioned whether alliance members would come to the United States’ defense.
“We have always been there for each other,” Macron told reporters in Brussels after a meeting of EU leaders to discuss European defense. He said France had shown “respect and friendship” to the United States, and “we are entitled to ask for the same thing.”