Lebanon’s soaring inflation led by 250 percent jump in fuel costs amid currency slump

Lebanon's economy was in crisis even before COVID-19 hit in 2020. (Reuters)
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Updated 18 September 2021
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Lebanon’s soaring inflation led by 250 percent jump in fuel costs amid currency slump

  • Lebanese CPI jumped 123 percent in the year to July 2021
  • Food and non-alcoholic beverages prices rose 248 percent

DUBAI: Lebanese residents were forced to pay more than double for consumer goods in July compared with a year earlier as prices soared amid a partial lifting of fuel subsidies and a record plunge in the local currency.

The latest data from Lebanon’s Central Administration of Statistics shows the consumer price index leaped 123 percent year-on-year last month as officials struggled to contain an economic meltdown the likes of which have not been seen since the end of the country’s 1975-1990 civil war.

The biggest contributor to surging prices has been the cost of transportation, which soared by 253 percent from July 2020, reflecting the rise in fuel costs after the previous government priced gasoline at the exchange rate of 3,900 pounds to the dollar in June. Two months later, the central bank began providing fuel importers with dollars at an exchange rate of 8,000 pounds to the dollar.

The Lebanese pound has been officially pegged at 1,507.5 pounds to the dollar since 1997, but is worth a lot less on the black market. Following the resignation of former Prime Minister-Designate Saad Hariri in July, it plummeted to a record 24,000 per dollar.

This pushed prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages up by 248 percent in the year to July 2021, while health care services rose by 178 percent. Prices at restaurants and hotels grew 246 percent and clothing and footwear prices almost doubled.

The formation of Najib Mikati’s government last week, following a 13-month political vacuum, provided Lebanese with slight reprieve.

The pound stabilized at around 14,000 to the dollar on Thursday amid the new government’s pledges for reforms and a resumption of talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which had hit a dead-end following bickering over the size of the banking sector’s losses.

Reforms demanded by the international community include a forensic audit of the central bank’s accounts and a restructuring of the banking sector.

On Thursday, a meeting took place at the Economy Ministry with the president of the syndicate of supermarket owners and the president of the syndicate of food importers to discuss lowering the prices of goods.

The meeting touched on a new pricing mechanism for goods in the wake of the Lebanese pound’s surge, with new economy minister Amine Salam saying that ” both unions have committed to start reducing the prices of commodities.”

“The ministry will not tolerate this issue and will be strict in monitoring price,” he said.


Kingdom approves 2025 annual borrowing plan with SR139bn funding target

Updated 05 January 2025
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Kingdom approves 2025 annual borrowing plan with SR139bn funding target

  • Strategic road map to manage country’s funding needs

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Finance Mohammed Al-Jadaan on Sunday approved the annual borrowing plan for 2025, outlining a strategic road map for managing the Kingdom’s funding needs.

The plan, which has been endorsed by the National Debt Management Center’s board of directors, detailed developments in public debt in 2024, initiatives to strengthen local debt markets, and the 2025 funding framework, including a calendar for Saudi riyal-denominated sukuk issuances.

The projected funding requirement for 2025 is estimated at SR139 billion ($37 billion), according to a statement issued on Sunday.

The total encompasses two primary components: covering a fiscal deficit of SR101 billion, as highlighted in the Ministry of Finance’s official budget statement, and meeting the SR38 billion in principal repayments for debts maturing during the year.

To achieve its funding objectives, Saudi Arabia plans to enhance its access to both local and international financing channels and pursue innovative financing opportunities to stimulate economic growth, the statement added.

Moves will include private transactions such as export credit agency-backed initiatives, financing for infrastructure development, and capital expenditure projects.

The Kingdom will also explore opportunities to access new markets and issue debt in diverse currencies, depending on market conditions.


Closing Bell: Saudi main index slips to close at 12,069

Updated 05 January 2025
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Closing Bell: Saudi main index slips to close at 12,069

 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index fell on Sunday, shedding 32.73 points, or 0.27 percent, to close at 12,069.82.

The total trading turnover for the benchmark index amounted to SR4.21 billion ($1.12 billion), with 119 stocks advancing and 106 retreating.

The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu registered a gain of 48.69 points, or 0.16 percent, closing at 31,054.38. Out of the stocks listed on Nomu, 38 advanced while 41 declined. The MSCI Tadawul Index also declined, dropping 7.32 points, or 0.48 percent, to close at 1,509.84.

Among the top performers of the day was Saudi Reinsurance Co., whose stock surged 9.94 percent to SR59.70. 

Salama Cooperative Insurance Co. also posted a strong performance, with its share price rising 8.44 percent to SR21.06, while Riyadh Cables Group Co. saw its stock climb 6.34 percent to SR151.00. 

However, National Medical Care Co. recorded the day’s steepest decline, falling 3.49 percent to SR160.40. Emaar The Economic City and the Power and Water Utility Co. for Jubail and Yanbu also experienced losses, with their share prices dropping 3.06 percent to SR18.38 and 2.93 percent to SR53.00, respectively.

In corporate news, Al-Yamamah Steel Industries Co. announced the signing of a SR97.5 million contract with the Saudi-based Trading & Development Partnership. The agreement involves the supply of steel towers for constructing a 380-kilovolt ultra-high voltage transmission line in the Eastern Region. 

The contract, which will commence in May 2025, is expected to reflect on the company’s financial results starting from the third quarter of 2025. 

Shares of Al-Yamamah Steel ended the session 6.25 percent higher at SR36.40.

The Saudi Industrial Development Co. disclosed that its subsidiary, Global Co. for Marketing Sleeping Systems, also known as Sleep High, has secured a Shariah-compliant SR9 million credit facility from Riyadh Bank. 

The financing, guaranteed under the Kafalah Program, will be utilized to support the subsidiary’s working capital needs. SIDC shares closed 0.67 percent higher at SR30.00.

Saudi Arabian Amiantit Co. signed a memorandum of understanding with the Libyan Development & Reconstruction Fund to collaborate on water technology transfer, sewage treatment, and pipe production. 

The one-year agreement aims to localize industries in Libya, create employment opportunities, and transfer manufacturing expertise. It also includes plans to establish joint factories specializing in fiberglass and polyethylene pipes, as well as valves, to support Libyan national projects. 

Shares of Amiantit rose 1.90 percent to close at SR29.40.

United International Holding Co. announced the extension of its memorandum of understanding with Nowpay Corp. for an additional two months. The partnership aims to establish a payroll administration and processing firm in Saudi Arabia. 

The venture, which will require an initial investment of SR75 million, will be 75 percent owned by United International Holding and 25 percent by Nowpay Corp. 

The company’s stock closed 0.75 percent higher at SR187.40.

National Gypsum Co. revealed that it has signed an Islamic financing agreement with Riyadh Bank valued at SR35 million. The funds will be directed toward expanding operations and upgrading production lines. The financing will last for one and a half years and is backed by promissory notes and a property mortgage. 

The company’s share price remained unchanged at SR22.16.


Saudi listed firms see growth in 2024 with ACWA Power and Al Rajhi as top performers

Updated 05 January 2025
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Saudi listed firms see growth in 2024 with ACWA Power and Al Rajhi as top performers

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s listed companies witnessed significant growth in 2024, with ACWA Power and Al Rajhi Bank emerging as the top performers on the Tadawul All Share Index.

ACWA Power Co. led the index, contributing 295 points, followed by Al Rajhi Bank with a 207-point increase, according to data from SNB Capital cited by Al-Ekhbariya.

ACWA Power’s stock surged from SR255.89 at the start of 2024 to SR401.4 by year-end, reflecting big growth. Similarly, Al Rajhi Bank’s stock rose from SR86.8 to SR94.6 during the same period. Other notable contributors included Saudi Research and Media Group, adding 44 points to the index, Elm Co. with 43 points, and Ma’aden with 40 points.

However, not all listed companies experienced gains in 2024. Saudi Aramco recorded a significant decline, losing 177 points on the index as its stock price dropped from SR140 to SR111.8. SNB Capital fell by 70 points, followed by SABIC with a 62-point decrease, Banque Saudi Fransi with 32 points, and Sahara International Petrochemical Co., or Sipchem, with 30 points.

The Kingdom’s initial public offering market also saw robust activity in 2024, with 14 IPOs raising SR14.21 billion ($3.7 billion), marking a 19 percent year-on-year increase.

Almoosa Health and Fakeeh Care Group led the IPO market in terms of size, with Fakeeh attracting the highest individual participation, drawing 1.34 million unique investors.

Despite overall success, individual subscriptions accounted for only 13 percent of the total IPO volume, amounting to SR1.94 billion.

Modern Mills Co. led in subscription coverage, achieving a rate of 21.9 times, while the average individual coverage for the year’s IPOs stood at 11.87 times.

The food production sector dominated IPO activity, contributing 26.9 percent of total listings in 2024, with successful debuts by companies such as Modern Mills, Al-Rabie, and Al Arabiya.

IPO valuations varied significantly, with an average price-to-earnings ratio of 34 times. United International Holding recorded the lowest P/E, while Nice One topped the charts with a P/E of 118 times, making it the year’s most expensive IPO.

Looking ahead, SNB Capital forecasts an 8 percent annual profit growth for companies listed on the Tadawul in 2025, with the petrochemical sector expected to lead the way with a 74 percent rise in profits.


Saudi Arabia records robust GFCF growth in Q3 2024, fueled by non-government sector investments

Updated 05 January 2025
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Saudi Arabia records robust GFCF growth in Q3 2024, fueled by non-government sector investments

  • Non-oil sectors grew by 4.3 percent year-on-year
  • Unemployment rate dropped to 3.7 percent

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia solidified its status as a regional investment leader with a 7.4 percent year-on-year growth in gross fixed capital formation in the third quarter of 2024, led by the non-government sector.

The Ministry of Investment reported an 8.3 percent increase in the non-government division, reflecting the Kingdom’s ongoing efforts to boost private sector participation in its diversifying economy.

Government-related entities contributed to the overall GFCF growth, with a 2.3 percent increase in the third quarter of 2024.

The non-government sector’s performance aligns with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 objectives, which aim to shift the economy from oil dependency by fostering a vibrant private division. 

In line with these goals, the Ministry of Investment issued 3,810 investment licenses in Q3 2024, marking a significant 73.7 percent year-on-year increase.

Non-oil sectors grew by 4.3 percent year-on-year during the same period, further supporting the Kingdom’s economic diversification efforts.

Key sectors saw notable growth, including wholesale and retail trade, restaurants, and hotels rose 5.8 percent, and construction increased 4.6 percent. Transport and communication grew by 4.5 percent, and finance and real estate advanced by 4.2 percent, driven by consumer spending and a dynamic financial sector.

These expansions contributed to the Kingdom’s overall real gross domestic product growth of 2.8 percent year-on-year for the quarter, despite a marginal 0.05 percent increase in oil activities.

The real estate sector also played a pivotal role in the third quarter of 2024, with the Real Estate Price Index rising by 2.6 percent y-o-y. While residential property costs increased by 1.6 percent, commercial properties saw a more pronounced growth of 6.4 percent. However, agricultural real estate prices declined by 8.7 percent, reflecting sectoral disparities. 

Complementing these trends, real estate loans by banks witnessed a 13.3 percent year-on-year increase, showcasing heightened investor interest in property development and acquisitions. 

Saudi Arabia’s economic resilience is further evident in labor market improvements. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.7 percent in this period, a 0.5 percentage point decrease from the same quarter in 2023. The Saudi unemployment rate fell to 7.8 percent, a one percentage point decline year-on-year.


Global growth expected to reach 3.2% amid monetary easing: report

Updated 05 January 2025
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Global growth expected to reach 3.2% amid monetary easing: report

  • QNB forecasts US Federal Reserve to cut rates by 75 bps and the European Central Bank by 150 bps
  • It predicts growth of 2.2% in 2025, down from 2.6% in 2024

RIYADH: Global economic growth is set to accelerate in 2025 as monetary easing, US resilience, and recoveries in Europe and China drive momentum, with Southeast Asian economies benefiting from positive spillovers.

The Qatar National Bank projects a 3.2 percent global growth rate, outpacing Bloomberg’s consensus of 3.1 percent, the state’s news agency QNA reported.

In its latest commentary, QNB anticipates growth in major economies, driven by controlled inflation, eased financial constraints, and policy adjustments by central banks. Emerging markets, specifically the Association of Southeast Asian Nations economies, are set to benefit from these advancements.

The report said that analysts have consistently underestimated global economic performance, as initial projections for 2023 and 2024 fell short of realized growth by 80 and 40 basis points, respectively.

“Analysts and economists have been proving to be over pessimistic when it comes to forecasting major economies and global growth in recent years,” reported QNA.

The national bank added: “In fact, over the last two years, initial expectations for growth were 80 basis points and 40 bps below realized growth in 2023 and 2024, respectively.”

It forecasts the US Federal Reserve to cut rates by 75 bps and the European Central Bank by 150 bps.

“This should support further investment and consumption growth, as credit becomes cheaper, new investment opportunities become more attractive, and the opportunity costs of spending decrease,” it added.

In the US, QNB predicts growth of 2.2 percent in 2025, down from 2.6 percent in 2024 but still above the long-term average of 2.3 percent.

“The US economy is expected to remain on a strong footing as labor markets are resilient, productivity is growing rapidly with fast technology adoption, and households have robust balance sheets with the strongest financial position in decades,” QNB said.

Europe and China are expected to recover from extended periods of stagnation. Growth in the European area is forecast to rise from 0.7 percent in 2024 to 1.0 percent in 2025, supported by lower energy prices and a rebound in global manufacturing demand.

China’s growth is projected to increase from 4.8 percent to 5.0 percent, driven by policy easing and renewed economic momentum.

Emerging Asian nations, particularly ASEAN economies, are set to benefit significantly. “Stronger growth in China is likely to be a significant tailwind to emerging Asia in general and ASEAN economies in particular,” QNB said.

The region’s five largest markets, including Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, are forecasted to grow by 5.2 percent in 2025, up from 4.4 percent in 2024.

“All in all, we expect to see a moderate acceleration of global growth in 2025, with significant monetary easing, a resilient US economy, a cyclical recovery in Europe and China, and positive spillovers to ASEAN economies,” QNB said.