Taliban vs. Daesh: Is the big war coming?

The Taliban victory in Kabul was celebrated by fighters in various ways: some sloganeered on the streets, some swarmed the presidential palace, some took photos on abandoned helicopters. Others broke through barricades of Kabul prison and freed hundreds of captured militants. But in the jubilation, such amnesty was not extended to those who they knew were going to be their new main enemy in the battlefield of Afghanistan. 

Taliban fighters dragged Abu Omar Khorasani from his cell and executed him. He was the one time head of Taliban’s rival, Daesh Khorasan. The eight others who were killed alongside him were his group members. In the ruthless Afghan war, Taliban consider Daesh Khorasan as their main threat in the future.

This perception shapes the Taliban’s handling of the foreign militants they considered ‘Mujahids’ till now, including Al Qaeda, Pakistani Taliban, Central Asian and Chinese Uyghur fighters. 

Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan, and the US want the Taliban to rein in these foreign fighters to secure their interests and geographical borders. 

But the immense pressure on Taliban’s political leadership comes from its own commanders, who fear if the Taliban treat the foreign fighters too harshly, they will switch sides to the Taliban’s bitter rival — Daesh.

Known as Daesh Khorasan, the group is an offshoot of Daesh, originating from the Middle East. When its formation was announced, the Taliban leadership approached the Daesh chief Abu Bakr Baghdadi but he turned down the request thus setting off a bitter rivalry. Both groups have been engaged in fierce battles for the last five years for dominance of the militant ecosystem in Afghanistan. 

Daesh waged war on the Taliban when they signed an agreement last year, and claimed they ‘sold out to their American masters,” with staunch rhetoric designed to lure in hard core militants unhappy over the Taliban-US deal. 

In August 2020, Daesh-K launched a 20-hour long assault in Jalalabad to enable a jailbreak in which hundreds of prisoners were freed. It followed up with a string of terror attacks against US, NATO forces, hospitals and Hazara Shia community members.

The attacks have continued after the Taliban takeover. Daesh-K carried out a deadly suicide attack on Kabul airport killing 170 Afghans and 13 US troops during evacuation. 

Then a string of explosions rocked Jalalabad killing several in the capital of Nangarhar province, triggering a hunt down operation by Taliban special forces against Daesh fighters. 

“The Taliban Daesh war has already begun. The deadly attacks on the airport during evacuation were the opening salvo in this conflict that will continue for years to come,” says Washington-based security analyst, Kamran Bokhari.

The Taliban have formed a special force of hundreds to fight Daesh fighters. On every check post, the Taliban guards vigilantly screen those traveling from districts under the Daesh shadow. 

“We have intelligence that Daesh militants have met with Chinese Uyghurs in Badakhshan province and established contact with some TTP leaders in Nuristan province,” says a Taliban source.

The Daesh core group is concentrated in eastern Kunar and Nangarhar and consist mainly of Pakistani Taliban and Afghan nationals. Smaller groups made up of local ethnic Tajik and Uzbeks are located in Badakhshan, Kunduz, Sar-e-Pul, Jowzjan and Balkh province. They are believed to have sleeper cells in the urban centers including Kabul and Jalalabad with pockets of support in Ghazi, Helmand indicating its widespread presence in Afghanistan. 

“Daesh is pretty well entrenched currently, but they are not in great numbers,” says veteran journalist and author, Jason Burke, who has covered Afghan wars. “They however have more money than before because of infusion of cash from Syria and Iraq. There are continuing links but it’s unclear how strong these are.”

The current leader of Daesh, Abu Shahab-al-MuHajjir, is said to be an Iraqi national of Arab origin. He doesn’t make public appearances but is known to be a ruthless proponent of urban warfare. According to the US Treasury, Daesh-K receives funds through local donations, extortion and financial support from Daesh in Syria. It has a significant network of hawala in cities like Jalalabad and Kabul. Some locals say it also deals in crypto currency. 

In 2016, it’s strength of fighters had crossed over 6,000 but subsequently faced huge military and financial losses at the hands of the Taliban, the US and Afghan forces. 

A recently released UN report estimates 1500-2200 core Daesh fighters in Afghanistan but other sources say the figure might be around 4000, while the hunt for new recruits continues. Its early recruits were militants from the Islamic Movement for Uzbekistan (IMU) and breakaway militant factions from Pakistan and Afghanistan. It is now attempting to lure in dissatisfied Taliban with cash incentives. Daesh strategists are hedging their bets on the failure of the Taliban in governing Afghanistan, engaging in guerrilla tactics while carrying on a propaganda war.

In Pakistan, sectarian fault lines are already present and a considerable number of militants of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), a banned outfit, have joined the ranks of Daesh.

Owais Tohid 

Daesh aims for borderless global war to establish a single political entity. The concept of Khorasan is of great significance for most such militant groups. It refers to a region encompassing northeast of Iran, much of Afghanistan and parts of Pakistan and Central Asia. According to their belief, black banners will arise from Khorasan, ultimately conquer the holy land of Jerusalem and revive the ancient Islamic caliphate.

“They are reimagining the Muslims’ past to mobilize disfranchised and alienated Muslim youth, claiming to establish a lost glory of the past,” says Haroun Rahimi, assistant professor at American University of Afghanistan.

The Taliban, on the other hand, confine their ambitions to Afghanistan and Pakistan and have no global or expansionist aspirations. They are under pressure from the international community to contain Daesh and prevent the staging of terror attacks from Afghanistan. The Taliban are compelled to make efforts to earn international recognition, and to secure the release of frozen funds worth $9.4 billion to save the country from economic chaos. 

“The strength of Daesh will grow as Taliban seeks to undertake the nearly impossible balance between its two conflicting imperatives of pragmatism and ideological commitment,” analyst Bokhari says.

The divide between them is simultaneously logistical, a battle for resources including manpower, a territorial conflict, as well as an ideological standoff. 

“For Taliban, Daesh are their worst enemies, and Daesh consider Taliban as US agents and apostates. Both want to eliminate each other so battles are bitter and deadly,” Burke says.

Many countries including the US, Russia, China, and Central Asian States are banking on the Taliban to counter Daesh. The recent terror attacks are worrying for them because spill-over effects can galvanize religious extremist groups and impact their own national security.

In Pakistan, sectarian fault lines are already present and a considerable number of militants of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), a banned outfit, have joined the ranks of Daesh, which has claimed responsibility for terrorist attacks such as the slaughter of 11 Hazara miners in January 2021. Many of them went to fight in Syria and Iraq during last several years.

“We were trailing the Daesh presence. We finally located an educated young man in a middle class neighborhood of Karachi,” recounts Omer Bin Khitab, a senior police official in the counter terrorism department in Karachi. “We found a USB hidden inside a photo frame of Daesh militants training on mountains. We were told that Zakir (not his real name) migrated to Iraq, later he served as a Qazi in Mosul, and now has returned to Afghanistan.”

Meanwhile, a journalist friend Fakhar Kakakhel, who has covered militancy extensively during Afghan war, recently visited the Daesh stronghold of Kunar. 

He met many fighters who were confident about eventual victory. 

“For Taliban, we are invisible, as they were for Americans,” Fakhar Kakakhel quoted a Daesh fighter as saying. “But we can see Taliban, they are on our target. We are ready for a decisive battle. We have time. And the world doesn’t have patience for the Taliban.”

*Owais Tohid has reported extensively on war and conflict in Asia for 30 years and witnessed the rise and fall of the Taliban in Afghanistan. He has also covered the Palestinian conflict in the Occupied Territories and worked for the BBC World Service, AFP and CS Monitor. Twitter: @OwaisTohid