ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s central bank kept its key policy rate unchanged at 11 percent on Monday, maintaining a cautious stance as heightened geopolitical tensions and volatile global oil prices add new risks to inflation and the fragile external sector.

A Reuters poll released earlier on Monday had shown analysts revising their expectations for a rate cut in light of Israel’s military strikes on Iran that began on Friday and have since intensified, pushing up global commodity prices.

“The [Monetary Policy] Committee noted some potential risks to the external sector amidst the sustained widening in the trade deficit and weak financial inflows. Moreover, some of the proposed FY26 budgetary measures may further widen the trade deficit by increasing imports,” the central bank said, announcing its decision to leave the rate unchanged.

“In this regard, the Committee deemed today’s decision appropriate to sustain the macroeconomic and price stability.” 

Inflation in Pakistan has slowed markedly since peaking at around 40 percent in May 2023. However, last month it rose to 3.5 percent year-on-year, above the finance ministry’s projection of up to 2 percent, partly due to the fading of favorable base effects. The central bank projects average inflation between 5.5 percent and 7.5 percent for the fiscal year ending this month.

The bank paused its easing cycle in March, following cumulative cuts totaling 1,000 basis points from a record high of 22 percent, and resumed it with a 100-basis-point reduction in May.

Monday’s meeting came days after the government presented a tight annual budget, which increased defense spending by 20 percent but reduced overall expenditure by 7 percent. It projects GDP growth at 4.2 percent for the next fiscal year, up from a provisional estimate of 2.7 percent for the current year.

The MPC noted that despite the widening trade deficit, the current account remained broadly balanced in April, and foreign exchange reserves rose to $11.7 billion as of June 6 after the completion of the first review under the International Monetary Fund’s Extended Fund Facility.

Revised budget estimates show the primary surplus at 2.2 percent of GDP for FY25, up from 0.9 percent last year, with a higher target of 2.4 percent for the upcoming fiscal year.

Global oil prices have rebounded sharply, driven by the evolving Middle East crisis and some easing of US-China trade tensions, the MPC noted.

“Taking stock of these developments and potential risks, the Committee assessed that the real interest rate remains adequately positive to stabilize inflation within the target range of 5–7 percent,” the statement said.

It added that timely foreign inflows, planned fiscal consolidation, and structural reforms remained essential to maintain macroeconomic stability and achieve sustainable growth.

ISLAMABAD: Light rain is forecast in several divisions of Pakistan’s Punjab province over the next 24 hours, provincial disaster management officials said on Monday, as a prolonged heat wave begins to ease in some areas.

The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) said on June 10 an ongoing heatwave in several parts of the country was expected to continue well into the middle of the month, with temperatures soaring above normal, disrupting daily life and raising health concerns.

However, the heat wave has begun to subside, a spokesperson for the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) said in a situation report, and in the past 24 hours, Bahawalnagar recorded 8 millimeters of rain, Sahiwal 3 mm, and Toba Tek Singh up to 2 mm.

Rainfall was also reported in Multan, Sialkot, Jhang, Kasur, Faisalabad and Rawalpindi districts.

“Rain is predicted in Lahore, Rawalpindi, Faisalabad, Multan, Bahawalpur, Sargodha, Gujranwala, D.G. Khan, and Sahiwal divisions in the next 24 hours,” the PDMA spokesperson said.

Five people were injured in a roof collapse caused by rain in Kasur district in the last 24 hours, the PDMA confirmed. 

PDMA Director General Irfan Ali Kathia “instructed to provide the best medical assistance to the injured” and urged residents to exercise caution during unstable weather.

“Citizens are requested to take precautionary measures in bad weather conditions,” Kathia said in the statement. “Stay in safe places in bad weather conditions. Never go out under the open sky during thunderstorms.”

Pakistan ranks among the top ten countries most vulnerable to climate change and has faced increasingly frequent extreme weather events in recent years, including deadly heat waves and floods.

Temperatures in the upper parts of the country including parts of Punjab, Islamabad, northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the northern regions of Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan remained 5°C to 7°C above normal this past week. Temperatures in the southern Sindh, eastern Punjab and southwestern Balochistan provinces stayed 4°C to 6°C above normal.