BEIJING: China’s economic rebound from the coronavirus pandemic is stalling as President Xi Jinping’s government cracks down on surging corporate debt.
For a decade, the ruling Communist Party has talked about shifting to economy based on spending by 1.4 billion consumers instead of on building factories and apartments. But with each slowdown, Beijing fell back on pepping up growth with more construction and borrowing.
Finally, Xi’s government is confronting the problem by clamping down on borrowing by a real estate industry that supports millions of jobs.
That is sending shockwaves through the economy. Businesses and households are jittery as housing sales and construction slump. That is chilling auto and retail sales. It has possible global repercussions as China buys less steel and other building materials.
“Many customers would like to wait and see,” said Liang Qiming, a salesman for online real estate broker 5i5j.com in Nanchang, a southern provincial capital that was turned into a boomtown by a flurry of construction over the past two decades.
China became the world’s factory, but the bigger power driving its economic boom was a construction frenzy that took off in the late 1990s. Developers and local governments poured borrowed money into blanketing the country with new apartments, office towers, shopping malls, bridges and railways.
Xi’s government appears to be willing to accept a politically painful slowdown to get that debt under control and achieve the longer-term goal of self-sustaining, safer growth.
Beijing “doesn’t want growth at all costs, followed by the likely or inevitable financial market crash, which is very much the sort of European-U.S. model,” said Robert Carnell, head of Asia research for ING.
Financial markets are on edge about whether one of the biggest developers, Evergrande Group, might be allowed to collapse under 2 trillion yuan ($310 billion) in debt as a warning to others.
Beijing wants to make sure families receive apartments sold to them by Evergrande before they were built, as is common in China, economists say. But they say it is trying to avoid sending the wrong message by bailing out the company.
Evergrande is a “pre-emptive cleanup,” Carnell said.
China revived from the coronavirus pandemic earlier than the United States, Europe or Japan, but but that rebound quickly flattened out.
Depressed by the building slump, the economy expanded just 4.9% over a year earlier in the three months ending in September much weaker than the previous quarter’s 7.9% growth. Compared with the previous quarter — the way other major economies are measured — growth in the three months ending in September fell to 0.2%, among the weakest of the past decade.
Housing sales fell 32% in September from a year earlier. Buyers were put off by curbs on mortgage lending and anxiety about whether developers might fail to deliver apartments paid for in advance. That means less spending on furniture and appliances.
With no sign Beijing will ease up, forecasters expect the economy to weaken further, since consumers who are reluctant to spend won't fill the gap left by lower investment.
This quarter's growth might fall as low as 3% over a year ago, according to Nomura. Bank of America cut its full-year forecast from 8% to 7.7%, which still would be among the world’s strongest. It slashed next year’s outlook from 5.3% to just 4%.
The total owed by companies, households and the government rose to almost the equivalent of three times annual economic output last year from 270% in 2018 — high for a middle-income country.
Xi affirmed his priorities at an August planning meeting, calling for “high-quality development” and “forestalling major financial risks,” according to the official Xinhua News Agency.
“China is in the middle of a transformation from growth driven by blind investments to high-quality growth,” said Zuo Xiaolei, an economist in Beijing.
Regulators tightened control over use of debt by real estate developers last year. Hundreds already had gone bankrupt following other restrictions imposed since 2017.
Tightening control, Beijing on Oct. 15 declared 19 of China's biggest banks that account for three-quarters of their industry's assets to be “domestic systemically important banks" that will face closer government scrutiny and lending controls.
A midsize developer, Modern Land (China) Co., announced it failed to pay off on a $250 million bond due Oct. 25. Earlier, another developer, Fantasia Holdings Group, missed a $205.7 million payment to bondholders due Oct 5.
Evergrande has caused more anxiety due to its vast debt, which includes $18 billion owed to foreign bondholders.
It failed to make a bond payment due Sept. 23. An official newspaper said the company avoided being declared in default by wiring $83.5 million for the payment on Oct. 22, one day before the end of a 30-day grace period.
“The risk of a sharper slowdown in real estate activity can’t be ruled out,” Tommy Wu of Oxford Economics said in a report.
Meanwhile, the economy also faces headwinds from power rationing imposed in major manufacturing areas to meet official efficiency goals. Automakers and other factories have been disrupted by shortages of processor chips.
Auto sales plunged 16.5% in September from a year earlier, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
Buyers are uneasy about the pandemic and economic outlook, said Chu Xianwu, who sells Jeeps at Shandong Xinju Auto trading Co. in the eastern city of Jinan. He said sales there were down 20% from six months ago.
“I really hope the situation will improve in the near future,” Chu said.
China's economy slows as Beijing wrestles with debt
https://arab.news/w4she
China's economy slows as Beijing wrestles with debt
- Finally, Xi’s government is confronting the problem by clamping down on borrowing by a real estate industry that supports millions of jobs
Pakistani stocks decline by 715 points over profit-taking after two days of gains
- KSE-100 Index closes at 122,046.46 points, witnessing a decline of 0.58 percent, as per stock market data
- Profit-taking driven by fiscal year-end considerations, short-term portfolio rebalancing, says financial analyst
ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed a bearish trend on Thursday after two days of gains, losing 715.18 points to close at 122,046.46 points, which a financial analyst attributed to profit-taking driven by fiscal year-end considerations.
The PSX closed at 122,046.46 points when trading ended on Thursday, witnessing a negative change of 0.58 percent. The KSE-100 had closed at 122,761.64 points on Wednesday and before that on Tuesday, it surged by 6,079 points or 5.23 percent to close at 122,246 points. Analysts attributed the surge on Tuesday to the ceasefire announcement between Iran and Israel.
As many as 473 companies transacted their shares in the stock market on Thursday, with 200 of them recording gains and 237 sustaining losses, state-run Associated Press of Pakistan (APP) said, adding that the share price of 36 companies remained unchanged.
“After two consecutive sessions of strong gains, the local bourse witnessed a round of profit-taking today, driven by fiscal year-end considerations and short-term portfolio rebalancing,” Maaz Mulla, the vice president of equity sales at Topline Securities Limited, said in a statement.
Mulla said the benchmark KSE-100 index saw a “volatile ride“— climbing 656 points intraday before losing 715 points at close of business. He said the closing figure of 122,046 points reflected “a cautious investor mood” as the quarter draws to a close.
He said despite the decline at the end of the day, the overall market activity remained “vibrant.”
“Total traded volume clocked in at 750 million shares, with a traded value of PKR 29.8 billion,” Mulla said.
APP reported that the three top trading companies on Thursday were Pak Int. Bulk with 37,503,501 shares traded at Rs 8.52 per share, WorldCall Telecom with 33,285,442 shares at Rs 1.45 per share and Pervez Ahmed Co. with 32,962,174 shares at Rs 3.29 per share.
IMF raises Saudi growth forecast to 3.5% for 2025, outstripping global average
- IMF highlighted pivotal role of Vision 2030 mega projects in sustaining Kingdom’s economic momentum
- It projects Saudi economic growth will outpace global average of 2.8% in 2025
RIYADH: The International Monetary Fund has revised up its forecast for Saudi Arabia’s economic growth in 2025, raising it to 3.5 percent from the 3 percent projected in April.
In its concluding statement following an Article IV consultation, the IMF highlighted the pivotal role of Vision 2030 mega projects in sustaining the Kingdom’s economic momentum, noting its continued resilience amid lower oil prices and shifting international challenges.
The IMF projects Saudi economic growth will outpace the global average of 2.8 percent in 2025, as well as outstripping most of its Gulf peers.
“Robust domestic demand — including from government-led projects — will continue to drive growth despite heightened global uncertainty and a weakened commodity price outlook,” the IMF stated in its new report.
The fund expected this momentum, supported by the scheduled phase-out of OPEC+ production cuts, to push growth even higher to 3.9 percent in 2026 before stabilizing around 3.3 percent in the medium term.
The Saudi Ministry of Finance welcomed the IMF’s concluding statement, highlighting its confirmation of “the strong resilience of the Saudi economy in the face of global economic shocks, supported by the expansion of non-oil sector activities, containment of inflation, and a historically low unemployment rate — all aligning with the objectives of Saudi Vision 2030.”
The ministry noted the IMF’s praise for the government’s efforts to enhance public finance sustainability and resilience to shocks, as well as its recognition that strong domestic demand continues to support economic growth despite global uncertainty, reflecting the Kingdom’s continued implementation of Vision 2030 projects.
Non-oil gross domestic product growth, a key indicator of diversification success, is projected to grow at 3.4 percent in 2025.
While slightly lower than the 4.2 percent achieved in 2024, the IMF attributed this sustained performance to “continued implementation of Vision 2030 projects through public and private investment, as well as strong credit growth, which would help sustain domestic demand and mitigate the impact of lower oil prices.”
Medium-term non-oil growth is expected to approach 4 percent by 2027 before stabilizing at 3.5 percent by 2030.
The IMF also noted positive developments in the labor market and inflation. The unemployment rate for Saudi nationals fell to a record low of 7 percent in 2024, surpassing the original Vision 2030 target.
Headline inflation, despite a small rise to 2.3 percent in April, remains contained.
“Inflation would remain anchored around 2 percent, supported by a credible peg to the US dollar, domestic subsidies, and an elastic supply of expatriate labor,” the fund projected.
On fiscal policy, the IMF deemed the anticipated higher spending in 2025, leading to a deficit above budget targets, as “appropriate.”
“Given the upfront adjustment and ample fiscal buffers available, staff believes that additional spending restraint in 2025— triggered by lower-than-budgeted oil prices— is not necessary as it would make fiscal policy procyclical and exacerbate the impact on growth,” the statement added.
However, it emphasized the need for gradual fiscal consolidation over the medium term, recommending measures like non-oil revenue mobilization, removing energy subsidies, and rationalizing spending.
The IMF highlighted the banking sector’s resilience but cautioned about the risks associated with strong credit growth. “Addressing strong credit growth and associated funding pressures would help mitigate risks to systemic financial stability,” the report urged.
It welcomed the Saudi Central Bank’s recent introduction of a countercyclical capital buffer and ongoing efforts to enhance regulatory frameworks.
The fund strongly emphasized the need for continued structural reforms. “The current environment of heightened uncertainty underscores the importance of continued structural reform efforts to sustain non-oil growth and economic diversification,” the statement concluded.
It added: “The reform momentum should continue irrespective of oil price developments.”
This includes strengthening anti-corruption frameworks, enhancing human capital, improving access to finance, fostering digitalization, and deepening capital markets.
Closing Bell: Saudi main index rises to close at 11,068
- Parallel market Nomu gained 215.80 points to close at 27,053.10
- MSCI Tadawul Index rose 11.41 points to close at 1,418.88
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index rose on Thursday, gaining 94.29 points, or 0.86 percent, to close at 11,068.27.
The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR5.72 billion ($1.52 billion), as 206 of the stocks advanced and 40 retreated.
The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu gained 215.80 points, or 0.80 percent, to close at 27,053.10. This comes as 54 of the listed stocks advanced while 31 retreated.
The MSCI Tadawul Index increased 11.41 points, or 0.81 percent, to close at 1,418.88.
The best-performing stock of the day was Ades Holding Co., whose share price rose 6.97 percent to SR13.82.
Other top performers included National Gypsum Co., whose share price increased 5.66 percent to SR22.40, as well as Zamil Industrial Investment Co., which rose 5.42 percent to SR42.80.
Specialized Medical Co. recorded the most significant drop, falling 3.31 percent to SR23.36.
Saudi Advanced Industries Co. also saw its stock price fall 2.55 percent to SR26.75.
Al-Taiseer Group Talco Industrial Co.’s stock price declined 2.27 percent to SR43.10.
Dar Al-Arkan Real Estate Development Co. has closed its 14th sukuk issuance, marking the tenth tranche under its USD-denominated Islamic Sukuk Program, with a total size of SR2.81 billion, the company said in a statement to Tadawul.
The five-year sukuk, carrying an annual profit rate of 7.25 percent, was issued on June 25 and attracted strong demand from both regional and international investors. The order book reached SR10.8 billion, nearly four times oversubscribed, according to the bourse filing.
The issuance comprised 3,750 sukuk units, each with a par value of $200,000.
Dar Al-Arkan appointed Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC, Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank PJSC, Alkhair Capital, Al Rayan Investment LLC, Arqaam Capital, Bank ABC, and Dubai Islamic Bank as joint lead managers for the transaction.
Also on the mandate were Emirates NBD Capital, First Abu Dhabi Bank, J.P. Morgan, as well as Mashreq, Sharjah Islamic Bank, Standard Chartered Bank, and Warba Bank.
Shares in Dar Al Arkan ended the session marginally lower, closing at SR19.22, down 0.10 percent.
The board of directors of Sahara International Petrochemical Co., also known as Sipchem, has approved SR362 million in cash dividends for the first half of 2025, according to a statement published on Tadawul.
The payout applies to 752 million eligible shares, translating to a dividend of SR0.50 per share, or 5 percent of the share’s par value.
Shares in Sipchem closed the session higher at SR19.06, gaining 4.24 percent.
Najran region’s business registrations jump 56% amid Saudi investment push
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Najran region has recorded a 56 percent increase in commercial registrations over the past five years, signaling expanding economic activity and growth potential in the southern province.
According to government data presented at the Najran Investment Forum 2025, business licenses in the region reached 39,000, accounting for around 2.3 percent of the Kingdom’s 1.7 million total records.
The forum, held from June 25 to 26 under the patronage of Prince Jalawi bin Abdulaziz bin Musaed, brought together government officials and private sector leaders to highlight economic prospects in the region. According to organizers, the event featured 53 project opportunities valued at over SR639 million ($170 million).
The southern province is emerging as a regional development hub under Vision 2030. With its mineral wealth, fertile land, cultural heritage, and growing logistics capabilities, it is positioned as a gateway for trade and business in line with the Kingdom’s economic diversification goals.
Speaking during the forum’s opening session, Assistant Minister of Commerce Abdulaziz bin Saud Al-Duhaim said: “Najran is an important region that abounds with diverse investment opportunities, based on its geographical location, natural resources, and competitive sectors such as agriculture, mining, manufacturing industries, tourism, and others.”
He added: “We have reviewed and developed more than 110 pieces of legislation over the past few years, most notably regulations on companies, franchises, e-commerce, bankruptcy, commercial registration, trade names, and others.”
The region’s light transport sector saw the largest increase in new registrations, up 124 percent year on year in the first quarter to 536. The logistics sector followed with 111 percent growth, totaling 345 records. Registrations in civil protection equipment installation and maintenance rose by 26 percent, while storage facilities climbed 31 percent, reaching 717 records.
During his participation in the forum, Al-Duhaim also emphasized that the Ministry of Commerce has strengthened market regulations to protect consumers, monitor prices, and combat fraud and commercial cover-ups.
“We are working on a comprehensive consumer protection system, established a reporting center and a summons center, and launched the ‘Emtithal’ electronic inspection and monitoring system,” he said.
The assistant minister also noted that the National Competitiveness Center has worked with more than 65 government agencies, in partnership with the private sector, to implement over 900 economic reforms and recommendations aimed at enhancing business competitiveness.
He added that 21 branches of the Saudi Business Center have been established to facilitate business start-ups and operations.
“The Ministry is working to develop and implement comprehensive strategies for the wholesale, retail, and professional services sectors, and to develop the services sector by leveraging new technologies,” Al-Duhaim said.
During the event, 14 cooperation agreements were signed between the Najran Chamber and various public and private entities to support local initiatives and business development.
Abdullah bin Ali bin Mohammed Al-Ahmari, assistant minister of industry and mineral resources for planning and development, who also participated in the event, noted that Najran is one of the richest regions in mineral resources, with the estimated value of untapped reserves rising from SR145 billion to more than SR227 billion.
He also emphasized the importance of developing mining-related manufacturing industries to maximize added value and boost exports.
In the same context, Abdullah Al-Dubaikhi, assistant minister of investment, discussed the province’s competitive advantages, noting that the area offers promising opportunities in mining, specialized agriculture, tourism, and education — sectors that require coordinated efforts among relevant authorities to unlock their full potential.
He noted that total projects registered on the Invest in Saudi Arabia platform for the region amounted to approximately SR8 billion.
The forum aimed to showcase the area’s economic potential, attract quality investments, and provide an effective platform for engagement between local and international investors and government agencies.
“The ministry has been committed to addressing all challenges facing the business sector by developing legislation, facilitating procedures, and expanding financing programs and solutions that empower entrepreneurship and commercial establishments,” Al-Duhaim added.
Saudi Arabia to see 700% surge in millionaire inflows in 2025: Henley & Partners
- UAE continues to lead globally, forecast to attract 9,800 millionaires this year,
- Report predicts unprecedented 142,000 millionaires across the world expected to relocate in 2025
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia is projected to attract 2,400 high-net-worth individuals in 2025, marking a sharp increase from the 300 millionaires estimated to have relocated to the Kingdom in 2024.
This eightfold rise positions Saudi Arabia as the fastest climber in the Henley Private Wealth Migration Report 2025, published by Henley & Partners in collaboration with New World Wealth.
Across the Gulf, the UAE continues to lead globally, forecast to attract 9,800 millionaires this year, the highest net inflow worldwide, followed by the US with 7,500.
HNWIs are relocating to the Kingdom due to its ambitious Vision 2030 agenda, pro-business reforms, and growing investment opportunities. The surge in inbound wealth reflects the region’s growing appeal to both returning nationals and international investors, particularly in Riyadh and Jeddah.
Saudi Arabia has also introduced attractive residency programs, tax incentives, and a push to diversify the economy beyond oil.
Juerg Steffen, CEO of Henley & Partners said that 2025 marks a “pivotal moment” for global wealth migration, adding: “It reflects a deepening perception among the wealthy that greater opportunity, freedom, and stability lie elsewhere.”
Mega projects like NEOM, improved infrastructure, and a focus on tourism and fintech are drawing international interest.
Additionally, the Kingdom offers political stability, regional influence, and a strategic location, making it an increasingly attractive destination for global wealth.
Henley & Partner’s report aligns with a recent study by consulting firm Capgemini, which highlighted the Middle East’s growing appeal to next-generation high-net-worth individuals, citing geopolitical security and economic stability as key drivers of investment interest in the region.
The analysis, published earlier in June, pointed specifically to Saudi Arabia’s aggressive efforts to attract global wealth through its economic diversification strategies, positioning the Kingdom as a rising center for international capital.
Capgemini also noted that the UAE is capitalizing on the same trend, with both Gulf economies drawing increased interest from global investors seeking high-growth markets and stable financial environments.
UK biggest loser amid global shift
Henley & Partner’s recent report predicts that an unprecedented 142,000 millionaires across the world are expected to relocate in 2025.
While Gulf countries and select European destinations see rising inflows, several traditional wealth hubs are witnessing record outflows.
The UK is forecast to lose 16,500 high-net-worth individuals, the highest on record, more than doubling China’s projected outflow of 7,800.
This reversal comes after years of the UK being a net destination for wealth, with recent tax reforms — including increases to capital gains and inheritance taxes and tighter regulations on non-domiciled residents — prompting an accelerated departure.
“Since 2014, the number of resident millionaires in the UK dropped by 9 percent compared with the W10’s global average growth of 40 percent,” said Trevor Williams, chair and co-founder at FXGuard, a digital foreign exchange risk manager, according to the report.
The shift is part of a broader trend in Europe, where France, Spain, and Germany are also expected to experience net outflows of wealthy individuals.
In contrast, Southern Europe is emerging as a new hub for global wealth.
Switzerland is projected to gain 3,000 millionaires, while Italy is set to receive 3,600.
Portugal and Greece are expected to receive 1,400 and 1,200, respectively.
Smaller markets such as Malta, Montenegro, and Latvia are also benefiting from favorable tax regimes and investment migration programs.
Beyond Europe, Thailand and Japan are increasingly preferred by wealthy individuals in Asia.
Thailand is forecast to gain 450 millionaires, and Japan 600, driven by political stability and high-end real estate.
Hong Kong is also showing signs of recovery, with inflows from mainland Chinese executives linked to the region’s growing tech sector. However, South Korea is set to see a significant outflow of 2,400 millionaires, reflecting broader economic and political uncertainty.
Other countries in Asia and the Middle East, including Vietnam, Pakistan, Iran, and Lebanon, are expected to see continued outflows of wealthy individuals, many relocating to the UAE or the US.
Misha Glenny, rector at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna, said recent geopolitical developments, including tensions in the Middle East, are contributing to a reshuffling of wealth migration patterns, according to the report.
In the Americas, Central American and Caribbean jurisdictions such as Costa Rica, Panama, and the Cayman Islands are expected to attract record numbers of high-net-worth individuals.
Despite a lower-than-usual forecast for inflows, the US remains a top destination for relocating millionaires.
Parag Khanna, founder and CEO of AlphaGeo, an AI-powered predictive analytics platform for investing, noted the ongoing role of Asia in shaping global wealth trends.
“Asia’s wealth landscape is a dynamic blend of ambition and caution. Singapore and Japan are solidifying their reputations as global wealth havens, while China and India are balancing domestic opportunity with the desire for diversification,” Khanna was quoted as saying in the report.
