Attempt on PM Mustafa Al-Kadhimi’s life shows destructive effect of pro-Iran factions on Iraqi state

The influence of Iran on its neighbor was felt in 2019, when pro-Shiite militia demonstrators attacked the US Green Zone compound. (AFP)
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Updated 17 November 2021
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Attempt on PM Mustafa Al-Kadhimi’s life shows destructive effect of pro-Iran factions on Iraqi state

  • Iraq’s pro-Iran groups accused Al-Kadhimi of fraud after faring badly in the October parliamentary election
  • The November 7 drone attack on the PM’s residence is seen by many analysts as a warning from the groups

IRBIL, Iraqi Kurdistan: In the early hours of Nov. 7, three quadcopter drones armed with explosives detonated inside the grounds of the official residence of Iraq’s prime minister, Mustafa Al-Kadhimi, injuring seven members of his security detail.

Al-Kadhimi, who escaped with only light injuries, promptly released a statement appealing for calm. The question as to who was behind the attack, however, remained unanswered and open to speculation.

Topping the list of likely conspirators are fighters affiliated with Iraq’s vast network of Iran-backed Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi militias, also known as the Popular Mobilization Forces.

Established in 2014 during the war against Daesh, these groups have since morphed into something of a fifth column within the Iraqi state, officially absorbed into the state security apparatus, but largely operating under their own chain of command.

They have carried out similar drone attacks in recent months, targeting US troops stationed in Iraq and the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region with the aim of forcing their withdrawal.

If Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi was indeed responsible for the attempt on Al-Kadhimi’s life, it raises the question: Did Iran sanction the attack?

Kyle Orton, an independent Middle East analyst, believes the identity of the culprit or culprits behind the attack on Al-Kadhimi’s residence is murky by design, giving the Iran-backed militias the luxury of plausible deniability.

“Iran’s militia network, especially in Iraq over the last few years, has worked to create various splinter groups to claim responsibility for some of their more politically sensitive attacks,” Orton told Arab News.

“It isn’t clear whether these groups actually exist beyond social media — at most, they are cells answerable to preexisting Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-run militias.”

The IRGC and its extraterritorial Quds Force exert tight control over their Iraqi militia proxies, their personnel, training, finances and access to weaponry, including explosive-laden drones, and demand total ideological loyalty to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Such a brazen attack “does not proceed if Tehran does not want it to,” said Orton. “Again, exactly how this came about — whether it was an order from IRGC Quds Force leader Esmail Qaani or a Qaani non-veto of a militia initiative — we will probably never know.”




Security forces inspect the aftermath of a drone strike on the prime minister's residence. (AFP)

Then there is the question of whether the militias actually intended to assassinate Al-Kadhimi or simply wanted to intimidate him and send a message.

In May 2020, militiamen encircled Al-Kadhimi’s residence in Baghdad’s fortified Green Zone in an apparent attempt to apply pressure on him. That was most likely because Al-Kadhimi has consistently sought to strengthen Iraqi state institutions, curtail the power of these militias, and restore genuine Iraqi sovereignty since he assumed office.

Orton, however, has little doubt the attackers were out to kill Al-Kadhimi on Nov. 7. “There has been a lot of analysis suggesting that this was a warning to Al-Kadhimi, rather than an attempt to assassinate him, but this strikes me as too clever by half,” he told Arab News.




If Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi was indeed responsible for the attempt on Al-Kadhimi’s life, it raises the question: Did Iran sanction the attack?

“Al-Kadhimi was injured in the attack and it strains credulity to believe that the IRGC agents who did this had calculated it to injure seven of his bodyguards and wound the prime minister, but kill nobody.”

The timing of the attack was also hardly coincidental. In October, Iraq held parliamentary elections, which had been a core demand of the popular grassroots protest movement that began in October 2019 against rampant corruption, unemployment and Iranian influence.

Several of Tehran’s consulates and missions across the country were torched by Iraq’s young protesters, who have increasingly come to view Iran as a foreign occupying power. Iran-backed militias responded by killing hundreds of demonstrators.

The protest movement nevertheless succeeded in forcing then-prime minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi to step down, clearing the way for new elections. However, the Oct. 10 ballot saw the country’s lowest ever turnout at just 41 percent.




The IRGC and its extraterritorial Quds Force exert tight control over their Iraqi militia proxies. (AFP)

Iran-backed political factions fared poorly. The Fatah Alliance won a paltry 17 seats, a substantial loss compared to the 48 they secured in 2018. Al-Sadr’s alliance, Sayirun, meanwhile, increased its share, taking 73 of the parliament’s 329 seats.

Given the desire of Al-Sadr and his supporters to reduce foreign influence in Iraq, the result came as a blow to Iran’s regional strategy. Insisting that the election had been rigged, militia supporters came out in strength to demand a manual recount.

Qais Al-Khazali, leader of the Iran-backed Asaib Ahl Al-Haq militia, joined the protests against the result the night before the drone attack on the prime minister’s residence, during which he accused Al-Kadhimi of orchestrating the “fraudulent” election results.

“The timing is surely related to the aftermath of the election,” said Orton. “The attacks on people close to Al-Kadhimi, particularly senior officers, a number of whom were murdered, began months ago, when the militias could see Al-Kadhimi forging a coalition against them ahead of the elections.”
 

Orton believes that Al-Kadhimi will stay the course in his efforts to cement the authority of the Iraqi state. “The prime minister is likely to continue his policy of trying to rein in the militias through legal instruments, whether it’s indictments for attacks on demonstrators or corruption,” he said.

But, as the Nov. 7 attack shows, Al-Kadhimi’s success is not necessarily guaranteed. “If Iran feels seriously threatened in Iraq, it has tools beyond a no-confidence motion in parliament to change the Iraqi prime minister,” Orton said.

Not everyone is convinced that the perpetrators intended to kill Al-Kadhimi, or that the message was intended solely for him.

“Certain Iran-backed militias with connections to both Kataib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl Al-Haq were trying to send Al-Kadhimi a message to back off,” Nicholas Heras, senior analyst and program head for State Resilience and Fragility in the Human Security Unit at the Newlines Institute, told Arab News.

“But they’re also trying to signal more widely, to Al-Sadr, that they can choose violence if they are frozen out of the political spoils in Iraq.”

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Al-Sadr has burnished his credentials as an Iraqi nationalist by repeatedly calling for militias in the country to be disarmed and for their weapons to be handed over to state security forces.

“This attack likely occurred with the knowledge of Iran, but Iran likely tried to discourage it, and the attack happened anyway,” Heras said.




Al-Kadhimi has consistently sought to strengthen Iraqi state institutions, curtail the power of these militias

The question now is how Al-Kadhimi ought to respond to the attack. “Al-Kadhimi’s next move is fraught with peril,” said Heras. “He can escalate and take on these militias head-on and risk a civil conflict within the Iraqi Shiite community.

“But if he backs down and does not respond, he creates a bad precedent of tacit acceptance of this behavior that could establish a norm in Iraq for years to come.

“Therefore, Al-Kadhimi is most likely to go the route of police action, with arrests and trials.”

Twitter: @pauliddon


Sudan’s former premier Hamdok says recent military gains won’t end the war

Updated 1 min 36 sec ago
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Sudan’s former premier Hamdok says recent military gains won’t end the war

MARRAKECH: Sudan’s former prime minister on Wednesday dismissed the military’s moves to form a new government as “fake,” saying its recent victories in recapturing the capital Khartoum and other territory will not end the country’s two-year civil war.

Abdalla Hamdok said no military victory, in Khartoum or elsewhere, could end the war that has killed tens of thousands and driven millions from their homes.

“Whether Khartoum is captured or not captured, it’s irrelevant,” Hamdok said on the sidelines of the Mo Ibrahim Foundation’s governance conference in Morocco. 

“There is no military solution to this. No side will be able to have outright victory.”

Hamdok became Sudan’s first civilian prime minister after decades of military rule in 2019, trying to lead a democratic transition. He resigned in January 2022 after a turbulent stretch in which he was ousted in a coup and briefly reinstated amid international pressure.

The following year, warring generals plunged the country into civil war. Sudan today bears the grim distinction of being home to some of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.

Fighting between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has left at least 24,000 dead, though many believe the true toll is far worse.

Both sides stand accused of war crimes. 

The RSF, with roots in Darfur’s notorious Janjaweed militia, has been accused of carrying out genocide. The army is accused of unleashing chemical weapons and targeting civilians where they live.

The war has driven about 13 million people from their homes, including 4 million who have crossed into neighboring countries. Famine is setting in and cholera is sweeping through.

The military recaptured the Khartoum area from the RSF in March, as well as some surrounding territory. Army chief Gen. Abdel-Fattah Al-Burhan has framed the advances as a major turning point in the conflict.

Last month, he appointed a new prime minister, Kamil Al-Taib Idris, for the first time since the war began, tasked with forming a new government. But the fighting has continued. 

The RSF has regrouped in its stronghold in Darfur and made advances elsewhere, including in Kordofan.

Hamdok, a 69-year-old former economist who now leads a civilian coalition from exile, called the idea that the conflict was drawing down “total nonsense.” The idea that reconstruction can begin in Khartoum while fighting rages elsewhere is “absolutely ridiculous,” he said.

“Any attempt at creating a government in Sudan today is fake. It is irrelevant,” he said, arguing that lasting peace can’t be secured without addressing the root causes of the war.

Hamdok said a ceasefire and a credible process to restore democratic, civilian rule would need to confront Sudan’s deep inequalities, including uneven development, issues among different identity groups and questions about the role of religion in government.

“Trusting the soldiers to bring democracy is a false pretense,” he added.

Though rooted in longstanding divisions, the war has been supercharged by foreign powers accused of arming both sides.

Pro-democracy groups, including Hamdok’s Somoud coalition, have condemned atrocities committed by both the army and the RSF.

“What we would like to see is anybody who is supplying arms to any side to stop,” he said.


Egypt says the sovereignty of a famous monastery is assured

Updated 5 sec ago
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Egypt says the sovereignty of a famous monastery is assured

  • Egypt’s foreign minister assured his Greek counterpart that the spiritual and religious value of Saint Catherine Monastery will be preserved

CAIRO: Egypt says the sovereignty of a famous monastery is assured.
Egypt’s foreign minister on Wednesday told his Greek counterpart that the spiritual and religious value of the Saint Catherine Monastery and surrounding archaeological sites will be preserved. That’s according to a statement.
The Greek Orthodox Church had been concerned after an administrative court said the state owns the land but affirmed the monks’ right to use the site.
The Patriarchate of Jerusalem last week expressed concern and said “it is our sacred obligation to ensure that Christian worship continues on this holy ground, as it has done for 17 centuries.” It acknowledged Egypt’s assurances there would be no infringement.
Egypt’s presidency last week said the ruling consolidates the state’s commitment to preserve the monastery’s religious status.


UN calls for probe into Libya mass graves

Updated 5 min 49 sec ago
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UN calls for probe into Libya mass graves

  • UN rights chief ‘shocked’ as dozens of bodies discovered in a section of Libyan capital run by armed militia

GENEVA: The UN human rights office called on Wednesday for an independent investigation into the discovery of mass graves at detention centers in Libya’s capital Tripoli.

It expressed concerns about the discovery of dozens of bodies, some charred and buried and others in hospital refrigerators, in an area of Libya’s capital controlled by an armed militia whose leader was killed last month.

UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said he was shocked by revelations that gross rights violations were uncovered at detention facilities in Tripoli run by the Stabilization Support Authority, or SSA, an armed group whose commander, Abdel-Ghani Al-Kikli, was killed in militia fighting in mid-May.

It was established to uphold the rule of law and falls under the Presidential Council that came to power in 2021 with the Government of National Unity of Abdul Hamid Dbeibah through a UN-backed process.

The rights office said it later received information on the excavation of 10 charred bodies at the SSA headquarters in the Abu Salim neighborhood and another 67 bodies discovered in refrigerators in the Abu Salim and Al-Khadra Hospitals. 

It also cited reports of a burial site at the Tripoli Zoo that was run by the SSA.

The office said the identities of the bodies were not immediately clear. “Our worst-held fears are being confirmed: Dozens of bodies have been discovered at these sites, along with the discovery of suspected instruments of torture and abuse, and potential evidence of extrajudicial killings,” Türk said in a statement.

Türk called on authorities to seal the area to preserve evidence and said there needed to be accountability for the killings. He said the UN should be granted access to the sites to document rights violations.

Libya, a major oil producer in the Mediterranean, has known little law and order since a 2011 NATO-backed uprising that toppled dictator Muammar Qaddafi and eventually divided the country between warring eastern and western factions.

The rights body said the discovery of dozens of bodies and suspected instruments of torture and abuse confirmed longstanding findings by the UN that human rights violations were committed at such sites.

“We call on the Libyan authorities to conduct independent, impartial and transparent investigations into these discoveries,” it said in a statement. It urged the authorities to preserve evidence and grant Libya’s forensic teams, as well as the United Nations, full access to the sites.

Outright war fighting in Libya abated with a ceasefire in 2020. However, efforts to end the political crisis have failed, with major factions occasionally joining forces in armed clashes and competing for control over Libya’s substantial energy resources.

Armed clashes erupted on Monday evening and gunfire echoed in the center and other parts of Tripoli following reports that the commander of one of its most powerful armed groups had been killed, three residents said by phone.


Red Cross chief declares Gaza ‘worse than hell on earth’

Updated 04 June 2025
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Red Cross chief declares Gaza ‘worse than hell on earth’

  • Palestinians are being stripped of their human dignity, Mirjana Spoljaric tells BBC
  • She calls on world leaders to take action to bring the conflict to an end

LONDON: The situation in Gaza has become “worse than hell on earth,” the president of the International Committee of the Red Cross has said.

“Humanity is failing in Gaza,” Mirjana Spoljaric told the BBC in an interview broadcast on Wednesday. “We cannot continue to watch what is happening.”

The ICRC, a global organization assisting people affected by conflict, has about 300 staff in Gaza.

It runs a field hospital in Rafah that was swamped with casualties in recent days after witnesses described Israeli troops opening fire on crowds trying to access food aid.

Spoljaric said that the situation in the territory was “surpassing any acceptable legal, moral and humane standard.”

“The fact that we are watching a people being entirely stripped of its human dignity should really shock our collective conscience.”

She called on world leaders to do more to bring the conflict to an end because the consequences would haunt them and “reach their doorsteps.”

Israel’s devastating military campaign in Gaza has killed more than 54,000 people since October 2023, mostly women and children.

The offensive was launched after a Hamas-led attack on Israel killed 1,200 people and seized dozens of hostages.

Spoljaric said that while every state had a right to defend itself, there could be “no excuse for depriving children from their access to food, health and security.”

She added: “There are rules in the conduct of hostilities that every party to every conflict has to respect.”

International condemnation of Israel has increased in recent weeks after its military pushed to take full control of Gaza after severing all food and aid supplies to the territory’s population.

Late last month, some aid deliveries resumed after Israel set up a new aid system that bypassed the UN and is now run by a newly formed US organization.

Operations at the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation’s three aid delivery sites were paused on Wednesday after dozens of Palestinians were killed by gunfire near one of the sites.


Israeli settlers establish illegal outpost near Palestinian Authority’s administrative city of Ramallah

Updated 04 June 2025
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Israeli settlers establish illegal outpost near Palestinian Authority’s administrative city of Ramallah

  • Settlers establish site on ruins of displaced Palestinian family’s home
  • Colonization and Wall Resistance Commission reported in May attempts by settlers to establish 15 new illegal outposts in West Bank

LONDON: Israeli settlers have established a new outpost on land belonging to Palestinians east of Ramallah, the administrative city of the Palestinian Authority.

The settlers have established the outpost on the ruins of a home belonging to a Palestinian family that was forcibly displaced nearly a year ago following a series of attacks in the village of Al-Taybeh, the Palestine News Agency reported.

Israeli settlements and outposts in the occupied West Bank are considered illegal under international law and have long been viewed as hindrances to the establishment of a viable Palestinian state and to achieving peace.

The PA’s affiliated Colonization and Wall Resistance Commission reported in May on attempts by Israeli settlers to establish 15 new illegal outposts in the West Bank, mainly on agricultural and pastoral land.

These outposts are distributed across several governorates, including six in Ramallah and Al-Bireh; two in Salfit, Tubas, and Bethlehem; and one each in Jericho and Nablus.