Attempt on PM Mustafa Al-Kadhimi’s life shows destructive effect of pro-Iran factions on Iraqi state

The influence of Iran on its neighbor was felt in 2019, when pro-Shiite militia demonstrators attacked the US Green Zone compound. (AFP)
Short Url
Updated 17 November 2021
Follow

Attempt on PM Mustafa Al-Kadhimi’s life shows destructive effect of pro-Iran factions on Iraqi state

  • Iraq’s pro-Iran groups accused Al-Kadhimi of fraud after faring badly in the October parliamentary election
  • The November 7 drone attack on the PM’s residence is seen by many analysts as a warning from the groups

IRBIL, Iraqi Kurdistan: In the early hours of Nov. 7, three quadcopter drones armed with explosives detonated inside the grounds of the official residence of Iraq’s prime minister, Mustafa Al-Kadhimi, injuring seven members of his security detail.

Al-Kadhimi, who escaped with only light injuries, promptly released a statement appealing for calm. The question as to who was behind the attack, however, remained unanswered and open to speculation.

Topping the list of likely conspirators are fighters affiliated with Iraq’s vast network of Iran-backed Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi militias, also known as the Popular Mobilization Forces.

Established in 2014 during the war against Daesh, these groups have since morphed into something of a fifth column within the Iraqi state, officially absorbed into the state security apparatus, but largely operating under their own chain of command.

They have carried out similar drone attacks in recent months, targeting US troops stationed in Iraq and the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region with the aim of forcing their withdrawal.

If Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi was indeed responsible for the attempt on Al-Kadhimi’s life, it raises the question: Did Iran sanction the attack?

Kyle Orton, an independent Middle East analyst, believes the identity of the culprit or culprits behind the attack on Al-Kadhimi’s residence is murky by design, giving the Iran-backed militias the luxury of plausible deniability.

“Iran’s militia network, especially in Iraq over the last few years, has worked to create various splinter groups to claim responsibility for some of their more politically sensitive attacks,” Orton told Arab News.

“It isn’t clear whether these groups actually exist beyond social media — at most, they are cells answerable to preexisting Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-run militias.”

The IRGC and its extraterritorial Quds Force exert tight control over their Iraqi militia proxies, their personnel, training, finances and access to weaponry, including explosive-laden drones, and demand total ideological loyalty to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Such a brazen attack “does not proceed if Tehran does not want it to,” said Orton. “Again, exactly how this came about — whether it was an order from IRGC Quds Force leader Esmail Qaani or a Qaani non-veto of a militia initiative — we will probably never know.”




Security forces inspect the aftermath of a drone strike on the prime minister's residence. (AFP)

Then there is the question of whether the militias actually intended to assassinate Al-Kadhimi or simply wanted to intimidate him and send a message.

In May 2020, militiamen encircled Al-Kadhimi’s residence in Baghdad’s fortified Green Zone in an apparent attempt to apply pressure on him. That was most likely because Al-Kadhimi has consistently sought to strengthen Iraqi state institutions, curtail the power of these militias, and restore genuine Iraqi sovereignty since he assumed office.

Orton, however, has little doubt the attackers were out to kill Al-Kadhimi on Nov. 7. “There has been a lot of analysis suggesting that this was a warning to Al-Kadhimi, rather than an attempt to assassinate him, but this strikes me as too clever by half,” he told Arab News.




If Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi was indeed responsible for the attempt on Al-Kadhimi’s life, it raises the question: Did Iran sanction the attack?

“Al-Kadhimi was injured in the attack and it strains credulity to believe that the IRGC agents who did this had calculated it to injure seven of his bodyguards and wound the prime minister, but kill nobody.”

The timing of the attack was also hardly coincidental. In October, Iraq held parliamentary elections, which had been a core demand of the popular grassroots protest movement that began in October 2019 against rampant corruption, unemployment and Iranian influence.

Several of Tehran’s consulates and missions across the country were torched by Iraq’s young protesters, who have increasingly come to view Iran as a foreign occupying power. Iran-backed militias responded by killing hundreds of demonstrators.

The protest movement nevertheless succeeded in forcing then-prime minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi to step down, clearing the way for new elections. However, the Oct. 10 ballot saw the country’s lowest ever turnout at just 41 percent.




The IRGC and its extraterritorial Quds Force exert tight control over their Iraqi militia proxies. (AFP)

Iran-backed political factions fared poorly. The Fatah Alliance won a paltry 17 seats, a substantial loss compared to the 48 they secured in 2018. Al-Sadr’s alliance, Sayirun, meanwhile, increased its share, taking 73 of the parliament’s 329 seats.

Given the desire of Al-Sadr and his supporters to reduce foreign influence in Iraq, the result came as a blow to Iran’s regional strategy. Insisting that the election had been rigged, militia supporters came out in strength to demand a manual recount.

Qais Al-Khazali, leader of the Iran-backed Asaib Ahl Al-Haq militia, joined the protests against the result the night before the drone attack on the prime minister’s residence, during which he accused Al-Kadhimi of orchestrating the “fraudulent” election results.

“The timing is surely related to the aftermath of the election,” said Orton. “The attacks on people close to Al-Kadhimi, particularly senior officers, a number of whom were murdered, began months ago, when the militias could see Al-Kadhimi forging a coalition against them ahead of the elections.”
 

Orton believes that Al-Kadhimi will stay the course in his efforts to cement the authority of the Iraqi state. “The prime minister is likely to continue his policy of trying to rein in the militias through legal instruments, whether it’s indictments for attacks on demonstrators or corruption,” he said.

But, as the Nov. 7 attack shows, Al-Kadhimi’s success is not necessarily guaranteed. “If Iran feels seriously threatened in Iraq, it has tools beyond a no-confidence motion in parliament to change the Iraqi prime minister,” Orton said.

Not everyone is convinced that the perpetrators intended to kill Al-Kadhimi, or that the message was intended solely for him.

“Certain Iran-backed militias with connections to both Kataib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl Al-Haq were trying to send Al-Kadhimi a message to back off,” Nicholas Heras, senior analyst and program head for State Resilience and Fragility in the Human Security Unit at the Newlines Institute, told Arab News.

“But they’re also trying to signal more widely, to Al-Sadr, that they can choose violence if they are frozen out of the political spoils in Iraq.”

0 seconds of 1 minute, 8 secondsVolume 90%
Press shift question mark to access a list of keyboard shortcuts
00:00
01:08
01:08
 

Al-Sadr has burnished his credentials as an Iraqi nationalist by repeatedly calling for militias in the country to be disarmed and for their weapons to be handed over to state security forces.

“This attack likely occurred with the knowledge of Iran, but Iran likely tried to discourage it, and the attack happened anyway,” Heras said.




Al-Kadhimi has consistently sought to strengthen Iraqi state institutions, curtail the power of these militias

The question now is how Al-Kadhimi ought to respond to the attack. “Al-Kadhimi’s next move is fraught with peril,” said Heras. “He can escalate and take on these militias head-on and risk a civil conflict within the Iraqi Shiite community.

“But if he backs down and does not respond, he creates a bad precedent of tacit acceptance of this behavior that could establish a norm in Iraq for years to come.

“Therefore, Al-Kadhimi is most likely to go the route of police action, with arrests and trials.”

Twitter: @pauliddon


Israeli strikes on Iran have killed at least 950 people and wounded 3,450 others, a human rights group says

An injured man is treated in a hospital, amid the Iran-Israel conflict, in Tehran, Iran, June 21, 2025. (REUTERS)
Updated 23 June 2025
Follow

Israeli strikes on Iran have killed at least 950 people and wounded 3,450 others, a human rights group says

  • US to strike Iran ”will be a legitimate target for our armed forces,” the state-run IRNA news agency reported

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates: Israeli strikes on Iran have killed at least 950 people and wounded 3,450 others, a human rights group said Monday.
The Washington-based group Human Rights Activists offered the figures, which covers the entirety of Iran. It said of those dead, it identified 380 civilians and 253 security force personnel being killed.
Human Rights Activists, which also provided detailed casualty figures during the 2022 protests over the death of Mahsa Amini, crosschecks local reports in the Islamic Republic against a network of sources it has developed in the country.
Iran has not been offering regular death tolls during the conflict and has minimized casualties in the past. On Saturday, Iran’s Health Ministry said some 400 Iranians had been killed and another 3,056 wounded in the Israeli strikes.

 

 

 


What do we know about US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities?

Updated 23 June 2025
Follow

What do we know about US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities?

  • Tehran says damage limited, no radiation leaks after Trump declares Iran’s uranium-enrichment capabilities destroyed
  • Assault involved 14 bunker-buster bombs, more than two dozen Tomahawk missiles and over 125 military aircraft

DUBAI: Amid mounting speculation, the US launched air strikes on three of Iran’s nuclear facilities on Saturday.

The operation aimed to support Israel in its war against Iran — ongoing since June 13 — by crippling Tehran’s uranium enrichment capacity, according to Asharq News.

US President Donald Trump later announced that Iran’s uranium-enrichment abilities had been eliminated, warning Tehran against any “retaliatory response.” Tehran, however, described the damage as “limited” and dismissed any indications of radiation leaks.

US President Donald Trump addresses the nation from the White House in Washington on June 21, 2025, following the announcement that the US bombed nuclear sites in Iran. (POOL / AFP)

The US strikes included 14 bunker-buster bombs, more than two dozen Tomahawk missiles and over 125 military aircraft, in an operation the top US general, General Dan Caine, said was named “Operation Midnight.”

Asharq News reported that the strikes targeted three critical nuclear facilities instrumental in Iran’s nuclear fuel cycle: Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear complex.

These sites span the entire fuel-enrichment chain — from raw uranium conversion, through enrichment, to the production of fuel and technical components for research reactors.

FASTFACTS:

• The first B-2 bomber was publicly displayed on Nov. 22, 1988, but its first flight was on July 17, 1989.

• The combat effectiveness of the B-2 was proved in the Balkans, where it was responsible for destroying 33 percent of all Serbian targets in the first eight weeks.

• In support of Operation Enduring Freedom, the B-2 flew one of its longest missions to date from Whiteman to Afghanistan and back.

• The B-2 completed its first-ever combat deployment in Iraq, flying 22 sorties and releasing more than 1.5 million pounds of munitions.

This handout satellite image provided by Maxar Technologies and taken on December 11, 2020 shows an overview of Iran's Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP), northeast of the Iranian city of Qom. (AFP)

Fordo facility

Location and structure: Fordo is 30 kilometers northeast of Qom, embedded within a mountain at an altitude of approximately 1,750 m, with over 80 meters of rock and volcanic shielding — making it one of Iran’s most fortified sites.

Technical role: It houses two underground halls that can hold about 3,000 IR-1 centrifuges, enriching uranium up to 60 percent — a level nearing weapons -grade.

Strategic importance: It is a primary target in any military effort to prevent Iran from achieving nuclear military capability, due to its high capacity and protection.

This handout satellite image courtesy of Maxar Technologies shows Iran's shows Natanz nuclear research center in the central Iranian province of Isfahan. (AFP) 

Natanz reactor

Location and structure: Situated near Kashan in central Iran, partially buried under about 8 meters of earth with a 220meter-thick concrete roof, naturally shielded by surrounding mountainous terrain.

Technical role: Contains primary and experimental plants with over 14,000 centrifuges (IR-1, IR-2m, IR-4, IR-6), making it Iran’s main industrial enrichment hub.

Strategic importance: Responsible for producing most of Iran’s low-enriched uranium and plays a key role in centrifuge development.

This handout satellite picture provided by Maxar Technologies and taken on June 22, 2025, shows damage after US strikes on the Isfahan nuclear enrichment facility in central Iran. (AFP)

Isfahan nuclear complex

Location and structure: Located south of Isfahan on an arid plateau away from populated areas, it is neither buried nor heavily fortified.

Technical role: Includes a Uranium Conversion Facility (UCF); a research reactor fuel production plant; and a metallic fuel pelletizing plant, and three research reactors.

Strategic importance: Serves as the backbone of Iran’s nuclear research and production infrastructure, supplying both Natanz and Fordo.

The Pentagon used some of the world’s most advanced aircraft for Saturday’s strikes. The B-2 Spirit is a multi-role bomber capable of delivering both conventional and nuclear munitions.

The bomber represents a major milestone in the US bomber modernization program. The B-2 brings massive firepower to bear anywhere on the globe through seemingly impenetrable defenses.

A B-2 bomber has a range over 11,000 km without refueling, capable of global reach from distant American bases. (Getty Images via AFP)

According to US officials, the bombers that carried out the Iran strikes flew for nearly 37 hours non-stop from its Missouri base, refueling in mid-air multiple times before striking in the early hours of Sunday.

A B-2 bomber offers several key advantages, primarily due to its stealth capabilities and global reach.

• A range over 11,000 km without refueling, capable of global reach from distant American bases.

• Stealth abilities such as flying-wing design and radar-absorbing materials that allow it to evade air defenses.

• It can carry both nuclear and conventional weapons, including the GBU‑57 bunker-buster bomb.

Initial reports quoted by Asharq News indicated that Fordo was hit with the GBU‑57, the most powerful US conventional bunker buster, designed for deeply buried targets like Fordo, which lies 90 meters underground. Fox News reported six bunker-busting bombs were dropped on Fordo, alongside approximately 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles fired at Natanz and Isfahan.

The GBU‑57 ‘Massive Ordnance Penetrator’ was designed by American military engineers to devastate deeply buried bunkers without radioactive fallout. It was the only nonnuclear weapon that could reach Iran’s hardest target.

• Weight: ~13,600 kg

• Length: 6.2 meters.

• Diameter: 0.8 meters.

• Explosive payload: 2,400 kg of high explosives.

• Guidance: GPS + inertial navigation.

* Penetration: Up to 60 meters of reinforced concrete or dense rock.

A Tomahawk cruise missile is a precision weapon that launches from ships, submarines and ground launchers and can strike targets precisely from a great distance, even in heavily defended airspace.

• Range: 1,250–2,500 km depending on variant.

• Speed: Subsonic (~880 km/h).

• Guidance: Inertial navigation, GPS, with some variants using terminal guidance (TERCOM, DSMAC).

• Warhead: ~450 kg conventional explosives.

• Launch platforms: Ships and submarines.

There has been a torrent of responses to the US move against Iran, Asharq News reported. President Trump declared the mission’s success, stating that the Fordo facility was “gone,” and Iran’s primary nuclear enrichment sites “completely and utterly destroyed.” Later on Sunday, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the strikes were an incredible and overwhelming success that have “obliterated Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.”

For its part, Iran’s Tasnim News Agency quoted an official saying the nuclear sites had been evacuated in advance, and the damage was “not irreparable.” The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran stated there was “no risk of any radiation leak.” Iran emphasized its nuclear industry would not be halted.
 

 


Israel rejects critical EU report ahead of ministers’ meeting

Updated 22 June 2025
Follow

Israel rejects critical EU report ahead of ministers’ meeting

  • European nations have been increasingly critical of the massive civilian toll of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s military campaign against Palestinian militant group Hamas since its October 7, 2023 attack on Israeli communities

BRUSSELS: Israel has rejected a European Union report saying it may be breaching human rights obligations in Gaza and the West Bank as a “moral and methodological failure,” according to a document seen by Reuters on Sunday.
The note, sent to EU officials ahead of a foreign ministers’ meeting on Monday, said the report by the bloc’s diplomatic service failed to consider Israel’s challenges and was based on inaccurate information.
“The Foreign Ministry of the State of Israel rejects the document ... and finds it to be a complete moral and methodological failure,” the note said, adding that it should be dismissed entirely.
European nations have been increasingly critical of the massive civilian toll of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s military campaign against Palestinian militant group Hamas since its October 7, 2023 attack on Israeli communities.

 

 


Palestinians waiting for humanitarian aid killed in airstrike

Updated 22 June 2025
Follow

Palestinians waiting for humanitarian aid killed in airstrike

  • The airstrike targeted the built-up Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza, according to Al-Awda Hospital, where the bodies were brought
  • It said another 22 people were wounded while waiting for aid trucks

TEL AVIV: At least four Palestinians were killed on Sunday in an Israeli airstrike and 22 were wounded while waiting for humanitarian aid, according to a local hospital.

The airstrike targeted the built-up Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza, according to Al-Awda Hospital, where the bodies were brought. 

It said another 22 people were wounded while waiting for aid trucks.

Palestinian witnesses and health officials say Israeli forces have repeatedly opened fire on crowds seeking desperately needed food, killing hundreds of people in recent weeks. 

The military says it has fired warning shots at people it said suspiciously approached its forces.

Separately, World Central Kitchen, the charity run by celebrity chef Jose Andres, said it had resumed the distribution of hot meals in Gaza for the first time in six weeks after shutting down because of Israel’s blockade, which was loosened last month amid fears of famine.

Also on Sunday, the Israeli military said that it had recovered the remains of three hostages held in the Gaza Strip. 

The military identified the remains as those of Yonatan Samerano, 21; Ofra Keidar, 70; and Shay Levinson, 19. 

All three were killed during Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack into Israel that ignited the ongoing war. 

Hamas is still holding 50 hostages, fewer than half of them believed to be alive.

The military did not provide any details about the recovery operation, and it was unclear if the airstrike was related to it.

“The campaign to return the hostages continues consistently and is happening alongside the campaign against Iran,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement.

Kobi Samerano said in a Facebook post that his son’s remains were returned on what would have been Yonatan’s 23rd birthday.

Militants killed some 1,200 people, and abducted 251 people in the Oct. 7 attack. 

More than half the hostages have been returned in ceasefire agreements or other deals, eight have been rescued alive, and Israeli forces have recovered dozens of bodies.

Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed over 55,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which has said that women and children make up more than half of the dead. It does not distinguish between civilians and combatants.

The Hostages Families Forum, the main organization representing families of the hostages, has repeatedly called for a deal to release the remaining captives.

“Particularly against the backdrop of current military developments, we want to emphasize that bringing back the remaining 50 hostages is the key to achieving any sort of victory,” it said in a statement on Sunday.

Hamas has said it will only release the remaining hostages in return for more Palestinian prisoners, a lasting ceasefire, and an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.

Netanyahu has rejected those terms, saying Israel will continue the war until all the hostages are returned and Hamas is defeated or disarmed and sent into exile. 

Even then, he has said Israel will maintain lasting control over Gaza and facilitate what he refers to as the voluntary emigration of much of its population, plans the Palestinians and others view as forcible expulsion.

The US, Qatar, and Egypt have been trying to broker a new ceasefire and hostage release after Israel ended a truce in March with a surprise wave of airstrikes. 

Those talks appear to have made little progress as Israel has expanded its air and ground offensive.


Twenty killed in suicide bombing at Damascus church

Updated 22 June 2025
Follow

Twenty killed in suicide bombing at Damascus church

  • It was the first suicide bombing in Damascus since Bashar Assad was toppled
  • Syria’s interior ministry said the suicide bomber was a member of Daesh group

At least 20 people were killed and dozens injured when a suicide bomber blew himself up at the Mar Elias Church in the Dweila neighborhood of Syria’s capital Damascus on Sunday, health authorities and security sources said.

It was the first suicide bombing in Damascus since Bashar Assad was toppled in December. Syria’s interior ministry said the suicide bomber was a member of Daesh (Islamic State). He entered the church, opened fire and then detonated his explosive vest, a ministry statement added.

A security source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said two men were involved in the attack, including the one who blew himself up.

Daesh has been behind several attempted attacks on churches in Syria since Assad’s fall, but this was the first to succeed, another security source told Reuters.

Syria’s state news agency cited the health ministry as saying that 52 people were also injured in the blast.

A livestream from the site by Syria’s civil defense, the White Helmets, showed scenes of destruction from inside the church, including a bloodied floor and shattered pews and masonry.

Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa, who led the offensive against Assad before taking over in January for a transitional phase, has repeatedly said he will protect minorities.

“We unequivocally condemn the abhorrent terrorist suicide bombing at the Mar Elias Greek Orthodox Church in Damascus, Syria,” the Greek foreign ministry said in a statement.

“We demand that the Syrian transitional authorities take immediate action to hold those involved accountable and implement measures to guarantee the safety of Christian communities and all religious groups, allowing them to live without fear.”

Daesh had previously targeted religious minorities, including a major attack on Shiite pilgrims in Sayeda Zainab in 2016 — one of the most notorious bombings during Assad’s rule.

The latest assault underscores the group’s continued ability to exploit security gaps despite the collapse of its territorial control and years of counterterrorism efforts.