MOSCOW: The longer the prices for natural gas remain at record high levels in Europe this year, the stronger the markets feel that Russian gas should not be seen as a quick fix to the problem, at least not before this winter ends.
“Overall gas production in Russia over the three quarters of 2021 was 12 percent and 2.6 percent higher than a year ago and in 2019. But it was not adequate to raise the supply to the EU immediately,” analysts at Bloomberg NEF said in a note dated Oct. 12.
The fundamentals have changed now. Ronald Smith, executive director and senior oil and gas analyst at Moscow-based BCS Global Markets, explained to Arab News in an emailed message: “In 2021, domestic demand in Russia has gone up substantially on a year-on-year basis. This is at least partially due to the weather, as 2020 was perhaps the warmest year on record, and 2021 has been pretty close to the 10-year norm.”
“There was a strong request to refill domestic storage in Russia before the heating season starts on Nov.1,” Smith added.
Given the pandemic circumstances, Putin’s administration didn’t want to take any chances. As a result, Russia turned up among “bottom 5" gas exporters whose shipments abroad in the third quarter of 2021 fell the most in absolute terms from the same quarter of 2019, according to a presentation by US-based Cheniere Energy, Inc. at an EIA event on Nov. 16.
Gazprom is also facing capacity constraints. “The company is currently producing 1.5 billion cubic meters per day. That is effectively 100 percent of the capacity. They might be able to manage 1.55 bcm/d, but not for very long, and that needs to be reserved for when the weather actually gets cold, say, -20C in Moscow and -5C in Frankfurt,” Smith told Arab News.
Responding to Arab News question how big the size of the increase in Gazprom shipments to Europe could have been over the next 3 months, had Nord Stream 2 regulatory issues been resolved, the analyst said: “Not much at this point unless Gazprom is willing to take gas out of Russian storage, which is full at this time.”
There seems to be a consensus view among industry experts that high gas prices in Europe this year is a result of a confluence of multiple things such as abnormal weather, a drop in European production, competition with Asia over the limited supply of LNG and the “green push.”
Spot prices for natural gas in Europe rose 41 percent during November. On Nov. 30, the front-month Dutch TTF Gas Futures, a European price benchmark, with delivery during January 2022, closed down 1 percent from the previous day at €92.5 after it jumped by more than 5 percent in early morning trading, according to data on Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. website.
Russia gas no quick fix for European spot market: Analysts
https://arab.news/jvqd3
Russia gas no quick fix for European spot market: Analysts
Oil Updates — prices ease on concerns over rising supply, US-China trade deal caution
LONDON: Oil prices eased on Tuesday from a two-week high, weighed down by concerns about rising supplies and some caution over whether the pause in the US-China trade war indicated a longer-term deal was likely.
Brent crude futures dropped 11 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $64.85 per barrel by 8:10 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 8 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $61.87.
Both benchmarks closed about 1.5 percent higher on Monday at their steepest settlements since April 28. The gains come during a turbulent time for global oil markets.
The US and China agreed to slash steep tariffs for at least 90 days, sending Wall Street stocks, the US dollar and crude prices sharply higher on Monday.
“While a thawing in trade tensions between China and the US is helpful, there’s still plenty of uncertainty over what happens in 90 days. This uncertainty could continue to generate headwinds for oil demand,” ING analysts said in an email to clients.
Underlying schisms that led to the dispute remain, including the US trade deficit with China and US President Donald Trump’s demand for more action from Beijing to combat the US fentanyl crisis.
“There is still high uncertainty around the future US-China trade negotiations in the coming 90-day pause period and beyond, given the substantial differences between China and the US on some fundamental issues,” UBS Chief China Economist Wang Tao wrote in a client note.
Markets were eyeing rising supplies as a key driver for oil price weakness.
“Though demand has been a key concern for the oil market, supply increases from OPEC+ mean that the oil market will be well supplied through the remainder of the year,” ING analysts said, adding that how well supplied the market is will depend on whether OPEC+ sticks with plans for aggressive supply hikes in May and June.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has boosted oil output by more than previously expected since April, with May output likely up by 411,000 barrels per day.
However, oil price declines were capped by some signs that demand for refined fuel remains strong.
“Despite the deteriorating outlook for crude demand, positive signals from the fuel markets cannot be overlooked. Although international crude prices have declined by 22 percent since their peak on January 15, both refined product prices and refining margins have remained stable,” JP Morgan analysts said in a note.
Reduced refining capacity — mostly in the US and Europe — is tightening gasoline and diesel balances, increasing reliance on imports and raising susceptibility to price spikes during maintenance and unplanned outages, they added.
Complex refining margins in Singapore have nearly doubled in May, averaging at $6.60 a barrel this month, up from $3.65 in April, LSEG pricing data showed.
Pakistan to get $1 billion IMF tranche today, no large fiscal impact of India standoff — finmin
- IMF last week approved fresh $1.4 billion climate loan, $1 billion under bailout program
- Successful review approval brings disbursements to $2 billion within $7 billion loan program
KARACHI: Pakistan is expected to receive a $1 billion loan disbursement from the IMF today, Tuesday, as part of a larger $7 billion bailout agreement, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has said.
The IMF last Friday approved a fresh $1.4 billion loan to Pakistan under its climate resilience fund and approved the first review of its $7 billion program, freeing about $1 billion in cash. The review approval brings disbursements to $2 billion within the $7 billion program.
In a statement released after a virtual meeting on Monday between Aurangzeb and Johana Chua, head of emerging markets economies for Citigroup Global Markets, the finance ministry confirmed that Pakistan would receive the latest IMF tranche on Tuesday.
“The Minister also apprised the participants of the successful conclusion of a Staff Level Agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), with the next tranche expected to be received tomorrow [Tuesday],” the statement said.
“He further mentioned the approval of the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), calling it a milestone achievement for Pakistan.”
The loan disbursement comes amid a military standoff with arch-rival India, though Aurangzeb told Reuters in an interview on Monday the conflict would not have a large fiscal impact on Pakistan.
The finance minister described the conflict as a “short duration escalation” with minimal fiscal impact, stating it can be “accommodated within the fiscal space which is available to the government of Pakistan.”
When questioned about potential increased military spending in the upcoming budget, Aurangzeb deferred comment, saying it was premature to discuss specific plans. However, he said: “Whatever we need to do in terms of ensuring that our defense requirements are met will be met.”
Aurangzeb said he expects the Indus Water Treaty, which India unilaterally suspended, to be reinstated and rolled back to where it was.
He said there is not going to be any immediate impact from India’s suspension and Pakistan does not “even want to consider any scenario which does not take into account the reinstatement of this treaty.”
Tensions between India and Pakistan began mounting after the April 22 attack in Indian-administered Kashmir on Hindu tourists that killed 26 people, sparking the worst clashes between the nuclear-armed neighbors in more than two decades.
On Saturday, a ceasefire in the Himalayan region was announced by US President Donald Trump, following four days of fighting and diplomacy and pressure from Washington.
Pakistan’s federal budget for the next fiscal year, starting July, will be finalized within the next four weeks, with scheduled budget talks with the IMF to take place from May 14-23, according to the finance ministry.
With inputs from Reuters
Trump’s Saudi Arabia visit heralds a new era of economic diplomacy
- Both nations eye investments potentially exceeding $1 trillion as US president returns to expand a landmark economic alliance
- Visit underscores focus on trade, trust and transformation as cooperation in defense, energy and emerging tech gains momentum
RIYADH: As President Donald Trump embarks on the first and, arguably, the most significant overseas tour of his second term, both the US and Saudi Arabia are eyeing investments worth billions of dollars.
In a call in January immediately after Trump was sworn in, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told the president that the Kingdom planned to increase the value of its trade and investments with the US by $600 billion over the coming four years. This suggested that the value of mutually beneficial deals between the two countries might potentially reach $1 trillion, indicating that the bilateral relationship was entering a bold new phase.
Driving this next chapter in the relationship are personal diplomacy, strategic commercial interests, and a shared vision for geopolitical alignment.
Trump’s first foreign visit as US president during his first term was to Riyadh in May 2017. This marked the beginning of a transformative economic partnership between the US and Saudi Arabia and a new era of cooperation centered on defense, energy and infrastructure agreements worth hundreds of billions of dollars.
Now, as the American president returns to the Kingdom, his first stop on a tour this week that will also take him to Qatar and the UAE, the foundations laid in 2017 are set to be built upon.
Trump’s first term (2017–2021) was characterized by a national-interest-driven foreign policy. Saudi Arabia quickly emerged as a cornerstone ally in both economic and strategic terms, a dynamic cemented at the historic Riyadh Summit in May 2017, at which King Salman extended an exceptionally warm welcome to the president.
The summit produced a wave of landmark agreements, most notably a $110 billion arms deal — part of a broader $350 billion economic package encompassing defense, energy and infrastructure initiatives.
In addition to state-level commitments, major commercial accords were struck. Saudi Aramco signed agreements valued at approximately $50 billion with prominent US firms including General Electric, Schlumberger and Halliburton.
Then Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih highlighted the private sector’s growing role, remarking: “Many of us sitting at the table are overseeing substantial investments in the United States.”
Further solidifying the economic partnership, the Kingdom’s Public Investment Fund pledged $20 billion to a US infrastructure initiative spearheaded by Blackstone.
This commitment helped to anchor a $40 billion fund dedicated to revitalizing American roads, bridges and airports. Simultaneously, Saudi Arabia announced a $45 billion investment in the SoftBank Vision Fund, directing capital toward cutting-edge US technology ventures.
President Trump, addressing the summit’s assembled dignitaries, emphasized the significance of the occasion.
“This historic and unprecedented gathering of leaders — unique in the history of nations — is a symbol to the world of our shared resolve and our mutual respect,” he said. “The United States is eager to form closer bonds of friendship, security, culture and commerce.”
Then Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said the investments were expected to create hundreds of thousands of jobs in both countries over the coming decade.
“They will lead to a transfer of technology from the US to Saudi Arabia, enhance our economy, and also enhance American investments in Saudi Arabia, which already are the largest investments of anyone,” he said.
Throughout his presidency, Trump consistently highlighted Saudi investments as a win for American industry. In 2018, he hosted Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the White House, where he publicly displayed detailed charts of Saudi arms purchases and emphasized the job-creation benefits across multiple US states.
“We’ve become very good friends over a fairly short period of time,” Trump remarked.
Reflecting on that period, Albara’a Al-Wazir, director of economic research at the US-Saudi Business Council, described the 2017 visit as an “inflection point” in bilateral economic relations.
“It wasn’t just the volume of deals — it was the alignment of strategic priorities between both governments and the private sector that defined the success of that moment,” he told Arab News in an interview.
“It marked a shift from transactional diplomacy toward long-term commercial integration.”
Trump’s 2024 re-election has reignited bilateral economic momentum and, according to Al-Wazir, this next wave of engagement reflects the Kingdom’s evolving priorities.
“Recent deals have spanned traditional sectors like defense and energy, but we are also seeing growth in advanced manufacturing, artificial intelligence, biotech and financial services,” he said, highlighting a broader, more diversified agenda than in Trump’s first term.
At the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, Trump hinted at even greater ambitions. He suggested he would ask the Saudi crown prince to raise the investment target to $1 trillion, describing it as a natural extension of a robust and trusted partnership.
Saudi Economy Minister Faisal Alibrahim confirmed at the forum that the $600 billion pledge encompassed both government-led procurement and private-sector investment in key areas such as defense, energy, infrastructure and technology.
The Saudi Ministry of Investment now ranks the US among its top five sources of foreign direct investment, particularly in sectors aligned with Vision 2030, such as infrastructure, technology and renewables.
As of January 2025, Saudi Arabia held $126.9 billion in US Treasury securities, making it the only Gulf Cooperation Council country among the top 20 foreign holders of American debt. This substantial stake underlines Riyadh’s continued confidence in US fiscal stability and reflects a longstanding strategy to diversify reserves via reliable, dollar-denominated assets.
The current holdings include $105.3 billion in long-term bonds and $21.6 billion in short-term instruments, reflecting a balanced approach between liquidity and capital preservation.
As the Saudi-US Investment Forum convenes on Tuesday at the King Abdulaziz International Conference Center in Riyadh, economic cooperation between the two nations will once again be in the global spotlight.
Timed to coincide with Trump’s visit, the forum aims to highlight nearly a century of bilateral partnership. It will bring together prominent investors, business leaders and policymakers from both nations to strengthen commercial ties and explore new avenues for collaboration.
According to figures released ahead of the event, the US remains the largest foreign investor in Saudi Arabia, with FDI stock totaling $54 billion as of 2023 — accounting for approximately 23 percent of all FDI in the Kingdom.
Currently, 1,266 American firms hold active licenses to operate in Saudi Arabia, including 440 new licenses issued in the past year alone. These companies are engaged in such critical sectors as transportation, manufacturing, retail, information and communications technology and professional services. Collectively, they employ more than 80,000 workers in the Kingdom, including over 44,000 Saudi nationals.
Saudi investment in the US is also on the rise, with FDI stock now exceeding $75 billion. Leading the way are key institutions such as the PIF, Aramco and SABIC, while US financial firms continue to play a pivotal role in channeling global capital into major Saudi initiatives.
Bilateral trade between the two countries remained strong in 2024. Saudi exports to the US reached $12.8 billion, including nearly $3 billion in non-oil goods — a testament to the Kingdom’s ongoing economic diversification efforts.
Meanwhile, US exports to Saudi Arabia totaled $19.7 billion, led by machinery and appliances at $5.1 billion, vehicles at $2.6 billion, and medical and optical equipment at $1.5 billion.
On the Saudi side, key exports to the US included mineral products ($10 billion), fertilizers ($830 million) and organic chemicals ($526 million).
This year’s forum is expected to highlight the expanding investment and trade relationship as a cornerstone of modern economic diplomacy between the two strategic allies.
Trump’s visit to Riyadh is widely expected to focus also on new defense contracts and deepening economic cooperation.
Energy policy has also returned to the fore, with Trump urging Saudi Arabia to ramp up oil production in a bid to stabilize global markets and reduce pressure on fuel prices — linking economic alignment to broader geopolitical aims, including efforts to curtail Russian revenue.
Al-Wazir believes the visit may also accelerate progress in emerging technologies and industrial development: “US companies are particularly well positioned to support Saudi Arabia’s diversification goals under Vision 2030, especially in energy transition technologies, automation and data analytics,” he said.
There are signs that Gulf investors are already responding positively to the renewed partnership. Following the 2024 US election, Yasir Al-Rumayyan, governor of PIF, was photographed alongside President Trump and Elon Musk, who is now serving as a senior adviser to the White House. Bloomberg interpreted the image as a signal of renewed Gulf confidence in the Trump administration.
As Trump returns to Saudi Arabia, the US-Saudi economic alliance appears not only intact, but also on the cusp of expansion — driven by mutual interests, deepening personal ties and a shared belief that commerce remains a pillar of diplomacy in a rapidly shifting global order.
US company joins major infrastructure project in Makkah
JEDDAH: US-based investment firm Burlington Capital has joined the Al-Bushra Infrastructure Development Fund as a strategic partner, marking a new chapter in economic cooperation between the US and Saudi Arabia.
The fund, which is privately managed and closed-ended, aims to develop more than 734,000 sq. meters of land in the Al-Aziziyah district of Makkah.
The involvement of Burlington Capital, headquartered in Nebraska and led by CEO Lisa Yanney Roskens, is part of a broader trend of foreign investment into the Kingdom’s infrastructure and real estate sectors.
The globally recognized firm has previously managed more than $7 billion in assets across 36 countries.
The Al-Bushra fund is aligned with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 strategy, which seeks to diversify the national economy and reduce reliance on oil revenues. The fund’s objective is to convert raw land into serviced plots to support urban growth and encourage private sector activity.
Dr. Abdulaziz Sager, a board member of the fund and a prominent figure in regional development policy, is leading the project. His role includes guiding the fund’s strategic direction and overseeing its implementation.
The announcement reflects a growing interest from international firms in participating in long-term infrastructure projects within the Kingdom.
Burlington Capital was established in 1984 and has previously focused on a range of investments across both public and private sectors. Its entry into the Saudi market represents an extension of its international operations.
Wyndham to launch Super 8 hotels in Saudi Arabia, plans 100 properties
RIYADH: Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, a US-based hospitality group, has announced plans to introduce its Super 8 brand in Saudi Arabia, with an ambitious target of launching approximately 100 properties across the Kingdom over the next 10 years.
The announcement came during the Future Hospitality Summit in Riyadh, where Dimitris Manikis, president of Wyndham for Europe, the Middle East, Eurasia, and Africa, confirmed the initiative and signed the initial partnership agreement to bring Super 8 to the Saudi market.
“It’s a premium economy brand... one of the leading brands in the United States, Central Europe, and China. We finally brought it to Saudi Arabia,” Manikis told Arab News.
The expansion will be executed in partnership with Le Park Concord Co., a Saudi-based hotel operator that currently manages 13 properties with more than 900 rooms and has 13 additional hotels in its development pipeline, according to a press release.
The initiative is being supported by the Saudi Ministry of Tourism, reflecting the Kingdom’s broader strategy to diversify its tourism offerings and expand hospitality infrastructure in line with Vision 2030 goals.
Super 8 hotels will be strategically developed in major Saudi cities as well as secondary and tertiary urban centers. Target locations include areas near airports, highways, and newly emerging development zones. While the timeline remains flexible due to early-stage project planning, the first property is expected to open within the year.
“They are prefabricated, so they are easy to build. In six months, you can have a hotel in your location, which is amazing,” Manikis said, highlighting the brand’s scalability and efficient construction model.
Celebrating its 50th anniversary this year, Super 8 has a strong international footprint, particularly in the US and China, where it operates hundreds of properties.
Wyndham currently operates 14 hotels in Saudi Arabia, primarily under the Ramada brand. The company aims to diversify its portfolio in the Kingdom by introducing additional midscale, upper-midscale, and lifestyle brands to better serve a range of traveler preferences.
The rollout of Super 8 aligns with Saudi Arabia’s efforts to expand hotel capacity and provide affordable lodging options as it gears up to host a series of major international events.
Manikis also emphasized the importance of cultural and environmental sensitivity in the expansion, noting the company’s commitment to aligning with the Kingdom’s heritage and sustainability values.
Education and workforce development are key pillars of Wyndham’s strategy in the region. The executive described education as a critical component both for hotel owners and the people who work there.
He also underscored the company’s commitment to sustainability through the Wyndham Green Program, a five-tier certification framework that focuses on conservation and resource management. All Wyndham properties in the Kingdom currently operate under these sustainability guidelines.
With Saudi Arabia positioning itself as a global destination for expos, sports tournaments, and other international gatherings, Manikis reaffirmed Wyndham’s long-term vision for the market.
He said the company is committed to supporting the Kingdom’s tourism transformation while ensuring environmental responsibility and sustainable growth.
