As the omicron coronavirus variant spreads in southern Africa and pops up in countries all around the world, scientists are anxiously watching a battle play out that could determine the future of the pandemic. Can the latest competitor to the world-dominating delta overthrow it?
Some scientists, poring over data from South Africa and the United Kingdom, suggest omicron could emerge the victor.
“It’s still early days, but increasingly, data is starting to trickle in, suggesting that omicron is likely to outcompete delta in many, if not all, places,” said Dr. Jacob Lemieux, who monitors variants for a research collaboration led by Harvard Medical School.
But others said Monday it’s too soon to know how likely it is that omicron will spread more efficiently than delta, or, if it does, how fast it might take over.
“Especially here in the US, where we’re seeing significant surges in delta, whether omicron’s going to replace it I think we’ll know in about two weeks,” said Matthew Binnicker, director of clinical virology at Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota.
Many critical questions about omicron remain unanswered, including whether the virus causes milder or more severe illness and how much it might evade immunity from past COVID-19 illness or vaccines.
On the issue of spread, scientists point to what’s happening in South Africa, where omicron was first detected. omicron’s speed in infecting people and achieving near dominance in South Africa has health experts worried that the country is at the start of a new wave that may come to overwhelm hospitals.
The new variant rapidly moved South Africa from a period of low transmission, averaging less than 200 new cases per day in mid-November, to more than 16,000 per day over the weekend. omicron accounts for more than 90 percent of the new cases in Gauteng province, the epicenter of the new wave, according to experts. The new variant is rapidly spreading and achieving dominance in South Africa’s eight other provinces.
“The virus is spreading extraordinarily fast, very rapidly,” said Willem Hanekom, director of the Africa Health Research Institute. “If you look at the slopes of this wave that we’re in at the moment, it’s a much steeper slope than the first three waves that South Africa experienced. This indicates that it’s spreading fast and it may therefore be a very transmissible virus.”
But Hanekom, who is also co-chair the South African COVID-19 Variants Research Consortium, said South Africa had such low numbers of delta cases when omicron emerged, “I don’t think we can say” it out-competed delta.
Scientists say it’s unclear whether omicron will behave the same way in other countries as it has in South Africa. Lemieux said there are already some hints about how it may behave; in places like the United Kingdom, which does a lot of genomic sequencing, he said, “we’re seeing what appears to be a signal of exponential increase of omicron over delta.”
In the United States, as in the rest of the world, “there’s still a lot of uncertainty,” he said. “But when you put the early data together, you start to see a consistent picture emerge: that omicron is already here, and based on what we’ve observed in South Africa, it’s likely to become the dominant strain in the coming weeks and months and will likely cause a surge in case numbers.”
What that could mean for public health remains to be seen. Hanekom said early data from South Africa shows that reinfection rates are much higher with omicron than previous variants, suggesting the virus is escaping immunity somewhat. It also shows the virus seems to be infecting younger people, mostly those who are unvaccinated, and most cases in hospitals have been relatively mild.
But Binnicker said things could play out differently in other parts of the world or in different groups of patients. “It’ll be really interesting to see what happens when more infections potentially occur in older adults or those with underlying health conditions,” he said. “What’s the outcome in those patients?”
As the world waits for answers, scientists suggest people do all they can to protect themselves.
“We want to make sure that people have as much immunity from vaccination as possible. So if people are not vaccinated they should get vaccinated,” Lemieux said. “If people are eligible for boosters, they should get boosters, and then do all the other things that we know are effective for reducing transmission — masking and social distancing and avoiding large indoor gatherings, particularly without masks.”
Omicron v. delta: Battle of coronavirus mutants is critical
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Omicron v. delta: Battle of coronavirus mutants is critical
Uruguay votes for next president in closely fought runoff race
- Final opinion polls suggest the Nov. 24 runoff promises to be razor tight
- Fewer than 25,000 votes potentially separating the frontrunners
MONTEVIDEO: Voters in South America’s laid-back Uruguay, known for its beaches, legalized marijuana and stability, will head to the polls on Sunday in a second-round presidential race between moderates that closes out a bumper year of elections.
The vote in the small nation of 3.4 million people sees opposition center-left candidate Yamandu Orsi take on continuity conservative runner, Alvaro Delgado, who has the backing of a third-placed ally.
Final opinion polls suggest the Nov. 24 runoff promises to be razor tight, with fewer than 25,000 votes potentially separating the frontrunners.
Unlike sharp right-left divides in recent elections in Argentina, Brazil or Mexico, Uruguay’s political arena is relatively tension-free, with significant overlap between the conservative and liberal coalitions vying for office, taking some of the sting out of Sunday’s final result.
Ballot stations open at 8 a.m. (1100 GMT) and close at 7:30 p.m. local time, with first results expected two hours later.
Orsi, who has pledged a “modern left” policy approach, won 43.9 percent of the October vote for the Broad Front and will face Delgado, who secured 26.8 percent but also has the backing of the conservative Colorado Party that together with his National Party made up almost 42 percent of votes. The two parties did the same in 2019, winning the election.
Orsi has sought to reassure Uruguayans that he does not plan a sharp policy shift in the traditionally moderate and relatively wealthy nation.
Delgado meanwhile has asked voters to “re-elect a good government,” seeking to capitalize on the popularity of President Lacalle Pou, who constitutionally cannot run for immediate re-election.
Neither coalition has an absolute majority in the lower house following October’s elections. But Orsi’s Broad Front won 16 of 30 Senate seats. He argues his senate majority places him in a better position to lead the next government.
Both contenders on Sunday are hoping to attract the roughly 8 percent of first-round voters who went for smaller, unaligned parties, as well as those who failed to turn out in October.
But neither has made new pledges in the final weeks to appeal to them, and pollsters say a televised debate on Nov. 17 appears to have had little effect.
“I don’t know who I’m voting for,” said Rosario Gusque, 42, from the region of Canelones where Orsi was previously mayor. “Even less so after seeing the debate.”
One question as the biggest year for elections in history comes to an end is whether Uruguay will buck a global trend of incumbent parties losing vote share compared with the previous election. Voters hurt by inflation and high living costs have punished parties in power, including in Britain, Japan and the United States.
A robust Uruguayan economy though could help Delgado on Sunday: “There are few indications that voters are clamoring for significant political change,” said Uruguayan analyst Nicolas Saldias of the Economist Intelligence Unit.
82 killed in three days of Pakistan sectarian violence: official
Peshawar: Three days of bitter sectarian gunfights in northwestern Pakistan have killed at least 82 people and wounded 156 more, a local official said Sunday.
“Among the deceased, 16 were Sunni, while 66 belonged to the Shia community,” said a local administration official in Kurram district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Pakistan is a Sunni-majority country but Kurram district — near the border with Afghanistan — has a large Shiite population and the communities have clashed for decades.
The latest bout of violence began on Thursday when two separate convoys of Shiite Muslims traveling under police escort were ambushed, killing at least 43 and sparking two days of gunbattles.
“Our priority today is to broker a ceasefire between both sides. Once that is achieved, we can begin addressing the underlying issues,” provincial Law Minister Aftab Alam Afridi said Sunday.
Pakistan partially stops mobile and Internet services ahead of pro-Imran Khan protest
- Sunday’s protest is to demand Khan’s release
- The government is imposing social media platform bans and targeting VPN services, according to monitoring service Netblocks
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan Sunday suspended mobile and Internet services “in areas with security concerns” as supporters of imprisoned former premier Imran Khan geared up for a protest in the capital.
The government and Interior Ministry posted the announcement on social media platform X, which is banned in Pakistan. They did not specify the areas, nor did they say how long the suspension would be in place.
“Internet and mobile services will continue to operate as usual in the rest of the country,” the posts said. A spokesperson for the Interior Ministry was not immediately available for comment.
Khan has been in prison for more than a year and has over 150 criminal cases against him. But he remains popular and his political party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf or PTI, says the cases are politically motivated.
His supporters rely heavily on social media to demand his release and use messaging platforms like WhatsApp to share information, including details of events.
Pakistan has already sealed off the capital Islamabad with shipping containers and shut down major roads and highways connecting the city with PTI strongholds in the provinces of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
The government is imposing social media platform bans and targeting VPN services, according to monitoring service Netblocks. On Sunday, Internet-access advocacy group, Netblocks said live metrics showed WhatsApp backends are restricted in Pakistan, affecting media sharing on the app.
Last month, authorities suspended the cellphone service in Islamabad and Rawalpindi to thwart a pro-Khan rally. The shutdown disrupted communications and affected everyday services such as banking, ride-hailing and food delivery.
Fire rips through slum area in Philippine capital
- Manila Fire District said around 1,000 houses were destroyed in the blaze
- The structures housed around 2,000 families, according to the fire department
MANILA: Raging orange flames and thick black smoke billowed into the sky Sunday as fire ripped through hundreds of houses in a closely built slum area of the Philippine capital Manila.
Manila Fire District said around 1,000 houses were burned in the blaze that is thought to have started on the second floor of one of the homes.
There were no immediate reports of casualties.
Drone footage shared online by the city’s disaster agency showed houses in Isla Puting Bato village of Manila razed to the ground.
The structures housed around 2,000 families, according to the fire department.
Village resident Leonila Abiertas, 65, lost almost all her possessions, but managed to save her late husband’s ashes.
“I only got the urn with the ashes of my husband,” a crying Abiertas said.
“I really don’t know how I can start my life again after this fire.”
Fire and disaster services deployed 36 trucks and four fire boats while the country’s airforce sent in two helicopters to help extinguish the fire.
“That area is fire-prone since most of the houses there are made of light materials,” firefighter Geanelli Nunez said.
Turkiye’s Erdogan to discuss Ukraine war with NATO chief
ANKARA: Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan will discuss the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine war with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Monday during his visit to Ankara, a Turkish official said on Sunday.
Russia struck Ukraine with a new hypersonic medium-range ballistic missile on Thursday in response to Kyiv’s use of US and British missiles against Russia, marking an escalation in the war that began when Moscow launched a full-scale invasion of its neighbor in February 2022.
NATO member Turkiye, which has condemned the Russian invasion, says it supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity and it has provided Kyiv with military support.
But Turkiye, a Black Sea neighbor of both Russia and Ukraine, also opposes Western sanctions against Moscow, with which it shares important defense, energy and tourism ties.
On Wednesday, Erdogan opposed a US decision to allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles to attack inside Russia, saying it would further inflame the conflict, according to a readout shared by his office.
Moscow says that by giving the green light for Ukraine to fire Western missiles deep inside Russia, the US and its allies are entering into direct conflict with Russia. On Tuesday, Putin approved policy changes that lowered the threshold for Russia to use nuclear weapons in response to an attack with conventional weapons.
During their talks on Monday, Erdogan and Rutte will also discuss the removal of defense procurement obstacles between NATO allies and the military alliance’s joint fight against terrorism, the Turkish official said.