As the omicron coronavirus variant spreads in southern Africa and pops up in countries all around the world, scientists are anxiously watching a battle play out that could determine the future of the pandemic. Can the latest competitor to the world-dominating delta overthrow it?
Some scientists, poring over data from South Africa and the United Kingdom, suggest omicron could emerge the victor.
“It’s still early days, but increasingly, data is starting to trickle in, suggesting that omicron is likely to outcompete delta in many, if not all, places,” said Dr. Jacob Lemieux, who monitors variants for a research collaboration led by Harvard Medical School.
But others said Monday it’s too soon to know how likely it is that omicron will spread more efficiently than delta, or, if it does, how fast it might take over.
“Especially here in the US, where we’re seeing significant surges in delta, whether omicron’s going to replace it I think we’ll know in about two weeks,” said Matthew Binnicker, director of clinical virology at Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota.
Many critical questions about omicron remain unanswered, including whether the virus causes milder or more severe illness and how much it might evade immunity from past COVID-19 illness or vaccines.
On the issue of spread, scientists point to what’s happening in South Africa, where omicron was first detected. omicron’s speed in infecting people and achieving near dominance in South Africa has health experts worried that the country is at the start of a new wave that may come to overwhelm hospitals.
The new variant rapidly moved South Africa from a period of low transmission, averaging less than 200 new cases per day in mid-November, to more than 16,000 per day over the weekend. omicron accounts for more than 90 percent of the new cases in Gauteng province, the epicenter of the new wave, according to experts. The new variant is rapidly spreading and achieving dominance in South Africa’s eight other provinces.
“The virus is spreading extraordinarily fast, very rapidly,” said Willem Hanekom, director of the Africa Health Research Institute. “If you look at the slopes of this wave that we’re in at the moment, it’s a much steeper slope than the first three waves that South Africa experienced. This indicates that it’s spreading fast and it may therefore be a very transmissible virus.”
But Hanekom, who is also co-chair the South African COVID-19 Variants Research Consortium, said South Africa had such low numbers of delta cases when omicron emerged, “I don’t think we can say” it out-competed delta.
Scientists say it’s unclear whether omicron will behave the same way in other countries as it has in South Africa. Lemieux said there are already some hints about how it may behave; in places like the United Kingdom, which does a lot of genomic sequencing, he said, “we’re seeing what appears to be a signal of exponential increase of omicron over delta.”
In the United States, as in the rest of the world, “there’s still a lot of uncertainty,” he said. “But when you put the early data together, you start to see a consistent picture emerge: that omicron is already here, and based on what we’ve observed in South Africa, it’s likely to become the dominant strain in the coming weeks and months and will likely cause a surge in case numbers.”
What that could mean for public health remains to be seen. Hanekom said early data from South Africa shows that reinfection rates are much higher with omicron than previous variants, suggesting the virus is escaping immunity somewhat. It also shows the virus seems to be infecting younger people, mostly those who are unvaccinated, and most cases in hospitals have been relatively mild.
But Binnicker said things could play out differently in other parts of the world or in different groups of patients. “It’ll be really interesting to see what happens when more infections potentially occur in older adults or those with underlying health conditions,” he said. “What’s the outcome in those patients?”
As the world waits for answers, scientists suggest people do all they can to protect themselves.
“We want to make sure that people have as much immunity from vaccination as possible. So if people are not vaccinated they should get vaccinated,” Lemieux said. “If people are eligible for boosters, they should get boosters, and then do all the other things that we know are effective for reducing transmission — masking and social distancing and avoiding large indoor gatherings, particularly without masks.”
Omicron v. delta: Battle of coronavirus mutants is critical
https://arab.news/vh89z
Omicron v. delta: Battle of coronavirus mutants is critical
Trump sides with Musk in right-wing row over worker visas
- Musk, who himself migrated from South Africa on an H1-B, posted Thursday on his X platform that luring elite engineering talent from abroad was “essential for America to keep winning”
WASHINGTON: Donald Trump weighed in Saturday in a bitter debate dividing his traditional supporters and tech barrons like Elon Musk, saying that he backs a special visa program that helps highly skilled workers enter the country.
“I’ve always liked the (H1-B) visas, I have always been in favor of the visas, that’s why we have them” at Trump-owned facilities, the president-elect told the New York Post in his first public comments on the matter since it flared up this week.
An angry back-and-forth, largely between Silicon Valley’s Musk and traditional anti-immigration Trump backers, has erupted in fiery fashion, with Musk even vowing to “go to war” over the issue.
Trump’s insistent calls for sharp curbs on immigration were central to his election victory in November over President Joe Biden. He has vowed to deport all undocumented immigrants and limit legal immigration.
But tech entrepreneurs like Tesla’s Musk — as well as Vivek Ramaswamy, who with Musk is to co-chair a government cost-cutting panel under Trump — say the United States produces too few highly skilled graduates, and they fervently champion the H1-B program.
Musk, who himself migrated from South Africa on an H1-B, posted Thursday on his X platform that luring elite engineering talent from abroad was “essential for America to keep winning.”
Adding acrimony to the debate was a post from Ramaswamy, the son of immigrants from India, who deplored an “American culture” that he said venerates mediocrity, adding that the United States risks having “our asses handed to us by China.”
That angered several prominent conservatives who were backing Trump long before Musk noisily joined their cause this year, going on to pump more than $250 million into the Republican’s campaign.
“Looking forward to the inevitable divorce between President Trump and Big Tech,” said Laura Loomer, a far-right MAGA figure known for her conspiracy theories, who often flew with Trump on his campaign plane.
“We have to protect President Trump from the technocrats.”
She and others said Trump should be promoting American workers and further limiting immigration.
Musk, who had already infuriated some Republicans after leading an online campaign that helped tank a bipartisan budget deal last week, fired back at his critics.
Posting on X, the social media site he owns, he warned of a “MAGA civil war.”
Musk bluntly swore at one critic, adding that “I will go to war on this issue.”
That, in turn, drew a volley from Trump strategist Steve Bannon, who wrote on the Gettr platform that the H1-B program brings in migrants who are essentially “indentured servants” working for less than American citizens would.
In a striking jab at Trump’s close friend Musk, Bannon called the Tesla CEO a “toddler.”
Some of Trump’s original backers say they fear he is falling under the sway of big donors from the tech world like Musk and drifting away from his campaign promises.
It was not immediately clear whether Trump’s remarks might soothe the intraparty strife, which has exposed just how contentious changing the immigration system might be once he takes office in January.
Social media adverts offer illegal migrants ‘package deals’ to UK
- Home Office vows to crackdown on ‘despicable’ gangs promoting services on TikTok
- Over 450 migrants cross English Channel in small boats on Christmas Day
LONDON: People smugglers are using TikTok adverts to lure migrants to the UK with “package deals.”
More than 150,000 people have crossed the English Channel in small boats from mainland Europe to try and enter Britain illegally since 2018, the UK said on Friday.
Traffickers have started to deploy new techniques advertised on social media to encourage more people to make the perilous journey in winter, The Times newspaper reported.
These include deals offered on TikTok for as little as £2,500 ($3,140) with payment only required on reaching the UK coast. The adverts said specialized handlers would collect the migrants, take them to rented accommodation and find them work.
The Times said the adverts were being run by Albanian smuggling gangs. One TikTok account named “Journey to London” offered deals to get people from Albania to England.
Another used a photo of the boat that would carry the migrants and the promise of a “secure crossing.”
The smugglers also offered to fly customers into the UK on stolen passports for £12,000. They urged one prospective client to make use of the Christmas period when airports are busier, The Times reported.
The recent calm weather has sparked a surge in small boat crossings, with more than 850 people making the journey across the Channel on Christmas Day and Boxing Day.
While the adverts predominantly targeted Albanians, the highest numbers of migrants using small boats in the year up to September were from Afghanistan, Iran and Syria.
A Home Office spokesperson described the smuggling gangs as “despicable” and said they were “exploiting vulnerable people by peddling lies on social media and placing them in horrendous conditions, working for next to nothing.”
“Anyone found to be doing this will face severe penalties and we are working with the National Crime Agency and major social media companies to rapidly remove online adverts promoting dangerous small boat crossings,” the person said.
TikTok told The Times it had proactively removed adverts posted by the users.
The number of small boat crossings hit a peak in 2022, when 45,774 people made the journey. More than 36,000 have done so this year.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer has promised to “smash” the people smuggling gangs, with the issue of immigration featuring heavily in campaigning for the July election.
UN warns nearly a fifth of world’s children affected by war
- Numbers at their highest since Second World War, almost doubled since 1990
- Gaza, Sudan among worst affected, more children expected to be casualties in Ukraine as toll continues to rise
LONDON: The UN has warned that nearly one in five children around the world live in areas affected by war. The global body’s children’s agency UNICEF has said 473 million children face the worst violence seen since the Second World War, with the number having almost doubled since 1990.
The UN said it had identified a record 32,990 grave violations against 22,557 children, the highest number on record. It added that around 44 percent of the nearly 45,000 victims of Israel’s war in Gaza were children, whilst there had been more child casualties in the war in Ukraine in the first nine months of 2024 than in the entirety of the previous year.
“By almost every measure, 2024 has been one of the worst years on record for children in conflict in UNICEF’s history, both in terms of the number of children affected and the level of impact on their lives,” said UNICEF’s Executive Director Catherine Russell.
“A child growing up in a conflict zone is far more likely to be out of school, malnourished, or forced from their home — too often repeatedly — compared with a child living in places of peace.
“This must not be the new normal. We cannot allow a generation of children to become collateral damage to the world’s unchecked wars.”
UNICEF added that there had been a significant increase in sexual violence toward young women and girls, and highlighted an explosion of reports in Haiti where rape and sexual assault cases increased 1,000 percent in 2024.
Malnutrition, too, is a major cause of trauma for children in conflict zones, with UNICEF focusing in particular on its effects in Sudan and Gaza. Around half a million people in five conflict-affected countries, it added, are affected by famine.
Gaza is also the center of a crisis regarding access to healthcare, with a polio outbreak detected in July this year. The UN responded with a mass vaccine campaign, which has so far reached 90 percent of the enclave’s children despite the hazardous conditions. But beyond Gaza, the UN said, 40 percent of the world’s unvaccinated children live in or near conflict zones.
UNICEF added that over 52 million children lack access to education, with Gaza and Sudan again at the forefront of this crisis.
Ukraine, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Syria have also seen swathes of their education infrastructure destroyed. The charity War Child, meanwhile, reported earlier in December that 96 percent of children in Gaza believe death is imminent, with almost half describing trauma that made them feel dying would be desirable.
“Children in war zones face a daily struggle for survival that deprives them of a childhood,” Russell said. “Their schools are bombed, homes destroyed, and families torn apart. They lose not only their safety and access to basic life-sustaining necessities, but also their chance to play, to learn, and to simply be children. The world is failing these children. As we look towards 2025, we must do more to turn the tide and save and improve the lives of children.”
Afghan Taliban hit several locations in Pakistan in ‘retaliation’ for attacks
- Pakistani air raids on southeastern Afghanistan killed at least 46 people on Tuesday
- Pakistan’s attacks took place as Islamabad’s special envoy visited Kabul for talks to strengthen ties
KABUL: Afghan Taliban forces targeted several locations in Pakistan on Saturday, Afghanistan’s defense ministry said, days after the Pakistani military launched deadly air raids on its territory in the latest flare-up of tensions.
The Pakistani Air Force bombed Afghanistan’s southeastern Paktika province on Tuesday, claiming it was targeting alleged hideouts of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan — the Pakistani Taliban — a militant group separate from the Afghan Taliban.
The raids killed at least 46 people, most of whom were children and women, the Afghan Ministry of National Defense said after the attack.
Announcing Saturday’s strikes, the ministry said in a statement that “several points beyond the assumptive lines ... were targeted in retaliation.”
While the statement did not mention Pakistan, the “assumptive lines” is a reference to the Afghan-Pakistani border, part of the Durand Line — a colonial-era boundary dividing the regions and communities between Afghanistan and what is now Pakistan. The boundary has never been officially recognized by any Afghan government.
Citing ministry sources, local media reported that 19 Pakistani soldiers were killed in the clashes. There was no official comment from Pakistan, but a security source confirmed that the confrontation with Afghan forces took place.
Since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan in 2021, Pakistan has repeatedly accused them of allowing TTP militants to use Afghan territory for cross-border attacks — a claim the Taliban have denied.
The latest escalation of hostilities comes as TTP fighters last week claimed responsibility for killing 16 Pakistani soldiers in the border region of South Waziristan. The area targeted by Pakistani strikes days later was the nearby Barmal district on the Afghan side of the border.
“Pakistan claims that by targeting alleged TTP hideouts and training venues in Barmal district in southeast of Afghanistan, it ensures security inside the country. This means that by challenging the security of its neighbors, Pakistan is trying to strengthen its own security,” Abdul Saboor Mubariz, board member of the Center for Strategic and Regional Studies in Kabul, told Arab News.
The Pakistani attack took place on the same day that Islamabad’s special representative for Afghanistan, Mohammad Sadiq, was in Kabul for talks to strengthen bilateral ties.
“A major problem that exists in Pakistan’s politics is that the civil government is not aligned with the military ... The civil government is backing negotiations, while the army is after a military solution,” Mubariz said.
“TTP has been a major barrier in relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan ... the Taliban, however, have continuously shown willingness for talks.”
Abdul Sayed, a Sweden-based analyst and expert on the politics and security of the Afghanistan-Pakistan region, interpreted Pakistan’s attack just hours after the Islamabad envoy’s visit as a “strategic message from Pakistan’s military establishment, signaling that failure to meet their demands through dialogue may result in the application of force.”
The subsequent responses from Taliban officials and Saturday’s retaliation by Taliban forces “appear to underscore their resolve not to yield to such pressure,” Sayed told Arab News.
“The Taliban’s stance suggests a commitment to defending Afghanistan’s territorial sovereignty and an unwillingness to capitulate under the threat of force. This approach of employing force is unlikely to yield a sustainable resolution; instead, it risks exacerbating security challenges for both states, particularly Pakistan, while further destabilizing the broader regional security landscape.”
Several airlines cancel flights to Russia after Azerbaijan Airlines crash
- Turkmenistan Airlines was the latest airline to announce cancelations Saturday
- Kazakhstan’s Qazaq Air has suspended its flights to Yekaterinburg until the end of January
MOSCOW: Several airlines have announced the suspension of flights to Russian cities, after Western experts and the US suggested the crash of the Azerbaijan Airlines this week may have been caused by a Russian anti-aircraft missile.
Moscow has declined to comment on reports the plane could have been accidentally shot down by its air defense.
Russia has said that Grozny, the Chechen capital where the plane was meant to land, was being attacked by Ukrainian drones that day.
It crashed near the Kazakh city of Aktau Wednesday, killing 38 of the 67 people on board.
Turkmenistan Airlines — the national carrier of the reclusive Central Asian state — was the latest airline to announce cancelations Saturday.
It said that “regular flights between Ashgabat-Moscow-Ashgabat were canceled from 30/12/2024 to 31/01/2025,” without giving an explanation.
The decision came after UAE airline flydubai suspended flights between Dubai and the southern Russian cities of Mineralnye Vody and Sochi that were scheduled between December 27 and January 3.
Kazakhstan’s Qazaq Air has suspended its flights to Russia’s Urals city of Yekaterinburg until the end of January.
Earlier this week, Israeli airline El Al said it was suspending its flights to Moscow for a week.
The Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 crashed near the western Kazakh city of Aktau, on the shores of the Caspian Sea.
It was carrying out a flight between Azerbaijan’s capital Baku and the city of Grozny in Russia.
For several days, some Western experts have been pointing to a crash caused by a Russian anti-aircraft missile.
Citing preliminary results of an investigation, Azerbaijan’s transport minister said Friday that the crash suffered physical “external interference.”
Statements from Azerbaijan citing the investigation into the incident suggest Baku believes the plane was hit mid-air.
On Friday, White House spokesman John Kirby said Washington has “indications” Russia may have been responsible, without giving details.
