KYIV: A high-tech factory in central Russia has created a new, deadly force to attack Ukraine: a small number of highly destructive thermobaric drones surrounded by huge swarms of cheap foam decoys.
The plan, which Russia dubbed Operation False Target, is intended to force Ukraine to expend scarce resources to save lives and preserve critical infrastructure, including by using expensive air defense munitions, according to a person familiar with Russia’s production and a Ukrainian electronics expert who hunts them from his specially outfitted van.
Neither radar, sharpshooters nor even electronics experts can tell which drones are deadly in the skies.
Here’s what to know from AP’s investigation:
A deadly mix
Unarmed decoys now make up more than half the drones targeting Ukraine and as much as 75 percent of the new drones coming out of the factory in Russia’s Alabuga Special Economic Zone, according to the person familiar with Russia’s production, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the industry is highly sensitive, and the Ukrainian electronics expert.
The same factory produces a particularly deadly variant of the Shahed unmanned aircraft armed with thermobaric warheads, the person said.
During the first weekend of November, the Kyiv region spent 20 hours under air alert, and the sound of buzzing drones mingled with the boom of air defenses and rifle shots. In October, Moscow attacked with at least 1,889 drones – 80 percent more than in August, according to an AP analysis tracking the drones for months.
On Saturday, Russia launched 145 drones across Ukraine, just days after the re-election of Donald Trump threw into doubt US support for the country.
Since summer, most drones crash, are shot down or are diverted by electronic jamming, according to an AP analysis of the Ukrainian military briefings. Less than 6 percent hit a discernible target, according to the data analyzed by AP since the end of July. But the sheer numbers mean a handful can slip through every day – and that is enough to be deadly.
The drone lab
Tatarstan’s Alabuga zone, an industrial complex about 1,000 kilometers (600 miles) east of Moscow, is a laboratory for Russian drone production. Originally set up in 2006 to attract businesses and investment to Tatarstan, it expanded after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine and some sectors switched to military production, adding new buildings and renovating existing sites, according to satellite images analyzed by The Associated Press.
In social media videos, the factory promoted itself as an innovation hub. But David Albright of the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security said Alabuga’s current purpose is purely to produce and sell drones to Russia‘s Ministry of Defense. The videos and other promotional media were taken down after an AP investigation found that many of the African women recruited to fill labor shortages there complained they were duped into taking jobs at the plant.
Russia and Iran  signed a $1.7 billion deal for the Shaheds in 2022, after President Vladimir Putin invaded neighboring Ukraine, and Moscow began using Iranian imports of the unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs, in battle later that year. Soon after the deal was signed, production started in Alabuga.
The most fearsome Shahed adaptation so far designed at the plant is armed with thermobarics, also known as vacuum bombs, the person with knowledge of Russian drone production said.
The plan to develop unarmed decoy drones at Alabuga was developed in late 2022, according to the person with knowledge of Russian drone production. Production of the decoys started earlier this year, said the person, who agreed to speak only on condition of anonymity. Now the plant turns out about 40 of the unarmed drones a day and around 10 armed ones, which are more expensive and take longer to produce.
The vacuum bomb
From a military point of view, thermobarics are ideal for going after targets that are either inside fortified buildings or deep underground. They create a vortex of high pressure and heat that penetrates the thickest walls and, at the same time, sucks out all the oxygen in their path.
Alabuga’s thermobaric drones are particularly destructive when they strike buildings, because they are also loaded with ball bearings to cause maximum damage even beyond the superheated blast.
Serhii Beskrestnov, a Ukrainian electronics expert and more widely known as Flash whose black military van is kitted out with electronic jammers to down drones, said the thermobarics were first used over the summer and estimated they now make up between 3 percent and 5 percent of all drones.
They have a fearsome reputation because of the physical effects even on people caught outside the initial blast site: Collapsed lungs, crushed eyeballs, brain damage, according to Arthur van Coller, an expert in international humanitarian law at South Africa’s University of Fort Hare.
For Russia, the benefits are huge.
An unarmed drone costs considerably less than the estimated $50,000 for an armed Shahed drone and a tiny fraction of the cost of even a relatively inexpensive air defense missile. One decoy with a live-feed camera allows the aircraft to geolocate Ukraine’s air defenses and relay the information to Russia in the final moments of its mechanical life. And the swarms have become a demoralizing fact of life for Ukrainians.

Lima: US President Joe Biden and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping will meet for the last time Saturday, a day after both leaders warned of turbulent times ahead for the world as Donald Trump returns to the White House.
Their final encounter, taking place on the sidelines of an Asia-Pacific summit in Peru, has been overshadowed by the prospect of fresh trade wars and diplomatic upheaval when Trump starts his second term.
Trump’s comeback has cast a cloud of uncertainty over efforts by Washington and Beijing to ease their tense relationship, launched in a historic meeting between Xi and Biden in California a year ago.
The White House said Saturday’s Xi-Biden meeting at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit would “mark the progress” in the relationship between the United States and an increasingly assertive Beijing.
But it was also aimed at getting through a “delicate period of transition” and ensuring that competition with China “doesn’t veer into conflict,” US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said.
Trump’s crushing election win over Kamala Harris has caused shock waves around the globe and dominated the two-day meeting of heads of state of the 21-member APEC group.
The billionaire Republican has in particular signaled a confrontational approach to Beijing, threatening to impose tariffs of up to 60 percent on imports of Chinese goods to even out what he says is a trade imbalance.
He has also named two major China hawks in his top team, including his pick for Secretary of State, Marco Rubio.
Xi and Biden, who are meeting for the third time overall, warned separately at the summit on Friday of choppy waters ahead.
The Chinese president raised concerns about “spreading unilateralism and protectionism” in a written speech to the forum, China’s state news agency Xinhua reported.
For his part, Biden said the world had “reached a moment of significant political change,” as he met the leaders of Japan and South Korea — key US allies in Asia.
Biden said US ties with the two countries were essential for “countering North Korea’s dangerous and destabilizing cooperation with Russia” as Pyongyang sends troops to fight in Ukraine.
And with Biden racing to salvage what he can of his foreign policy legacy from Trump, he said the three-way alliance he had pioneered was “built to last. That’s my hope and expectation.”
A senior administration official insisted that Trump’s name had not come up during the meeting with the South Korean and Japanese leaders.
The return of Trump’s “America First” policies, however, threatens alliances Biden has built on issues ranging from the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East to climate change and trade.
During his first term, Trump repeatedly threatened to cut US defense commitments to Asian and European allies if they did not pay a larger share of the financial burden for their protection.
Economists say Trump’s threat of punitive tariffs would harm not only China’s economy but also that of the United States and its trading partners.
It could also threaten geopolitical stability.
China is building up its military capacity while ramping up pressure on self-governed Taiwan, which it claims as part of its territory.
Sullivan said Xi and Biden were set to discuss Taiwan and tensions in the South China Sea, where Beijing claims large swathes of maritime territory, he said.
They would also focus on keeping communication channels open, particularly military-to-military hotlines restored last year.
The APEC summit will wrap up on Saturday but Trump’s shadow is still set to cloud the international diplomatic agenda at a G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro next week.
Biden will also be heading there as part of a swing through Latin America in what is likely to be his last major foreign tour.
He will stop in the Amazonian rainforest on Sunday to highlight the impact of climate change — another key policy area likely to be affected by Trump, who has promised to “drill, baby, drill” for fossil fuels.