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  • ‘Worst is over’: Pakistani stocks projected to hit historic high in 2022, analysts say


‘Worst is over’: Pakistani stocks projected to hit historic high in 2022, analysts say

A stockbroker watches an index board showing the latest share prices during a trading session at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) in Karachi on October 14, 2021. (AFP/File)
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Updated 28 December 2021
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‘Worst is over’: Pakistani stocks projected to hit historic high in 2022, analysts say

  • Benchmark KSE-100 index expected to hit 55,000-point level on the back of macroeconomic stability
  • Pakistan expects over 5 percent GDP growth during current fiscal year against last year's 3.94 percent
Updated 28 December 2021
KHURSHID AHMED   

KARACHI: With one of the "worst" years over, the benchmark KSE-100 index of the Pakistani stock market is projected to hit a historic level of 55,000 points in 2022 on the back of macroeconomic stability, Pakistani equity traders and analysts say.

The KSE-100 index made history when it crossed the 52,000-point barrier in May 2017. But political turmoil and economic conditions kept dragging the index down, until it hit the year's lowest 27,228 points in April 2020.

Most recently, the KSE-100 index peaked to the 48,726-point level in June 2021, but since then has been down by 9% due to concerns about macroeconomic indicators and talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).  

On January 12, 2022, the IMF Executive Board is expected to approve the 6th review of a $6 billion loan program, stalled since March this year, which is exepcted to unleash funding from other commercial institutions and donors as well.

“With the revival of the IMF program, Pakistan is expected to get external financing worth $26 billion that will keep the economy buoyant,” Adil Jilani, an analyst at Trust Securities & Brokerage, told Arab News. “We think the worst is over and resumption of the IMF program will bolster equity markets and stabilize national currency against the United States dollar and give the much-needed cushion to macroeconomic stability.”

The South Asian country expects over five percent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth during the current fiscal year against last year's 3.94 percent.  

Pakistani stock analysts predict the KSE-100 index will generate an overall return of 25% in 2022 on the back of sustainable economic growth. The benchmark index, which began the year with 43,755 points, was trading at 43,958 by Monday afternoon.

“We expect the local bourse to reach 55,000 points by December 2022,” Shahid Ali Habib, chief executive officer (CEO) of Karachi-based brokerage firm Arif Habib Limited, said at the launch of a research report, Pakistan Investment Strategy 2022, on Friday.

“Our index target is based on target price mapping, justified P/E (Price-to-Earnings) multiples and earnings growth. Our forward P/E for CY22 comes out to 4.9x which is lower than last ten-year P/E of 8.3x, while earnings growth is expected to clock in at 12.4%.”  

Analysts expect the Pakistani stock market to regain its previous status of best performing market, which it had achieved in 2016-17, and give higher returns in 2022.

“In 2021, the Pakistan stock market was one of the weak performers as compared to other regional peers and earnings were 9.5 percent negative in terms of dollar,” Samiullah Tariq, research director at Pakistan-Kuwait Investment Company, told Arab News. “With 20-25 percent earnings forecast for the next year, we expect the KSE-100 index would hit 53,000 level.”

Jilani agreed with Habib and Tariq, saying that considering attractive P/E multiples, potential corporate earnings growth and fundamentals of the economy, the benchmark index could cross the May 2017 historic high of 52,876 points next year.  

The Pakistani stock market remained under pressure during the outgoing year, mainly after June 2021, according to analysts.

“The KSE-100 index peaked to 48,726 points on June 14, 2021 and since then, it is down by 9% due to concerns on Pakistan macros,” said Muhammad Sohail, the CEO of Topline Securities. "Due to the pressures on external account situation of the country, Pakistani rupee also depreciated by 11% against US dollar. Thus, dollar holders made decent returns, while holders of Naya Pakistan Dollar Certificate (Roshan Digital Account) also made 18% returns in terms of rupee."

Equity traders and analysts pinned their hopes for a better performance of the stock market on the sustainability of the current economic growth momentum, backed by the measures taken by the government and the State Bank of Pakistan, but also warned against developing political pressure.

“Economic concerns being faced by a common man in the shape of concerning inflationary readings are undoubtedly culminating into political pressure on the government,” the Pakistan Investment Strategy 2022 report said. “The opposition, led by the PMLN, is striking the iron while its hot and gaining political mileage. We view that the inflationary pressure on the economy is a more prominent threat to the popularity of the government as it provides opportune ground for the opposition’s political mileage.”

With just four more trading sessions left, analysts expect the KSE-100 index to close flat at the year-end after a weak external account situation and rising policy rates led to lower interest in equities.

Topics: Pakistan stock

Pakistan using dual approach of diplomacy, military action against Afghan-based militants — analysts

Updated 6 sec ago
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Pakistan using dual approach of diplomacy, military action against Afghan-based militants — analysts

  • PM Sharif says cross-border attacks from against civilians, security forces ‘unacceptable’ for Pakistan
  • An Afghan analyst believes Pakistani airstrikes in his country can create sympathy for groups like TTP
Updated 6 sec ago
NAIMAT KHAN

KARACHI: Pakistan is using both political engagement and military action to counter militant groups operating from Afghanistan, analysts said on Friday, after Afghan authorities reported airstrikes conducted by Pakistani forces this week that killed 46 people.
The strikes, which targeted alleged hideouts of the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), came amid allegations by Pakistani officials of cross-border militant attacks, as extremist violence targeting civilians and security forces has surged more recently.
Afghan authorities claimed the victims included residents from Pakistan’s border regions, who were uprooted during military operations against TTP fighters in recent years, as the United Nations expressed concern over civilian casualties and urged an investigation.

Residents gather near a damaged house two days after air strikes by Pakistan in the Barmal district of eastern Paktika province on December 26, 2024. (AFP)

While Pakistan has not officially confirmed the airstrikes, with both the foreign office and the military’s media wing declining to comment, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the TTP cross-border attacks constituted a “red line” for his government, asking Afghan authorities to take action against militants using their soil.


The reported airstrikes coincided with a visit to Kabul by Mohammad Sadiq, Pakistan’s special representative for Afghanistan, to discuss trade and regional ties.
“It seems that Pakistan wants to continue to talk to the Taliban while also flexing its military muscle, just as the Taliban did once they engaged in talks with the US,” Husain Haqqani, a former Pakistani ambassador, told Arab News.
He maintained that Pakistan’s military leadership believed its past support for the Afghan Taliban, when the US-led international forces were still operating in Kabul, would shield it from violent attacks, adding these armed groups did not consider any Muslim country “exempt from imposition of their extreme ideology.”
However, Sami Yousufzai, an Afghan political analyst, highlighted the delicate nature of Pakistan-Afghanistan ties, saying such strikes were viewed as a direct affront by Kabul.

A Taliban security personnel stands guard at the site two days after airstrikes by Pakistan in the Barmal district of eastern Paktika province on December 26, 2024. (AFP)

“Afghanistan is particularly sensitive to invasions or attacks within its borders,” he told Arab News, acknowledging that the airstrikes resulted from growing pressure on Pakistan due to the surge in TTP attacks.
However, he maintained Pakistan had made errors of judgment relating to the timings of the attack, as one of its senior diplomats, Ambassador Sadiq, was in Afghanistan, and the number of civilian casualties.
Yousufzai informed that Afghan authorities had recently taken confidence-building measures at Pakistan’s request by relocating 200 TTP families from border areas to central Afghanistan, adding that the move had been undermined by the airstrikes.
“Afghanistan has little to lose, but as a more stable nation, Pakistan should avoid irresponsible actions,” he continued. “Such attacks will not eliminate the TTP. Instead, it will likely increase their support.”
He maintained the real issue was the TTP presence in Pakistan, adding that its fighters were even residing in districts like Bannu and Dera Ismail Khan, which do not share border with Afghanistan, though they have experienced several deadly attacks.

A Taliban security personnel keeps watch from a helicopter two days after air strikes by Pakistan in the Barmal district of eastern Paktika province on December 26, 2024. (AFP)

Mehmood Jan Babar, a Peshawar-based journalist specializing in Afghan and tribal affairs, argued the strikes did not derail diplomacy, as evidenced by continued meetings between Sadiq and Afghan officials, including Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi.
Asked about Afghan warning of consequences to Pakistan, he said: “Such speeches and statements are often for public consumption.”
Syed Khalid Muhammad, a security expert in Islamabad, dismissed the claims of civilian casualties, arguing that militants deliberately use civilian populations as shields.
“The key thing to understand about the Pakistani airstrikes on the TTP is that the militants have hidden themselves among the civilian population, much like every terror group globally, which serves a greater purpose for them,” he added. “It allows them to manufacture an alternative narrative to gain sympathy.”

Residents gather near a damaged house two days after air strikes by Pakistan in the Barmal district of eastern Paktika province on December 26, 2024. (AFP)

Meanwhile, Pakistani military’s spokesperson Lt. Gen. Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry said his country had repeatedly pointed out to the Afghan government on state level that the TTP and other militants had been launching cross-border attacks in Pakistan in a news conference earlier today.
“Pakistan will leave no stone unturned in dismantling terrorist networks and safeguarding its citizens against terrorism,” he told the media without confirming the airstrikes.

Topics: Pakistan Afghanistan border Pakistan Afghanistan clashes Pakistan Taliban Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

Pakistani investigation agency says has arrested human smuggler with India links

Updated 27 December 2024
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Pakistani investigation agency says has arrested human smuggler with India links

  • Five Pakistani illegal migrants were killed this month when their boat capsized near a Greek island
  • FIA says suspected human smuggler worked with an Indian in Azerbaijan to send people to Poland
Updated 27 December 2024
NAIMAT KHAN

KARACHI: Pakistani authorities on Friday announced the arrest of a human smuggler from Karachi, accusing him of working with an Indian agent to illegally send people to Europe, as Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stressed the need to eradicate the practice while presiding over a meeting in the federal capital.
The arrest follows a renewed government drive against human smuggling after five Pakistani nationals died in a boat tragedy near the Greek island of Gavdos earlier this month.
Last year, the issue of illegal migration to Europe drew national attention when hundreds of people, including 262 Pakistanis, drowned after their overcrowded vessel capsized off the southwestern Greek coastal town of Pylos during a voyage from Libya.
The Federal Investigation Agency’s (FIA) announcement of the arrest of Abdul Shakoor, the suspected human smuggler, has brought yet another illegal migration route to Europe under the spotlight, as it said the accused collaborated with an Indian national based in Central Asia.
“An Indian agent named Gautam Sharma, residing in Azerbaijan, was coordinating the illegal transportation of the suspects from Azerbaijan to Poland,” the FIA informed, adding three other suspects, Hasib Ahmed, Qaiser Ahmed and Usman Ali, hailing from different areas of Punjab province, were also arrested.
“Human smuggler Abdul Shakoor had made agreements to send the other suspects to Poland, charging $5,028.89 per person,” the statement added. “The suspects paid the agent an advance of $898.02 per person.”
The FIA also named the organizations that helped the suspects obtain visas.
Separately, the prime minister chaired a review meeting on measures to curb human smuggling, wherein he reviewed the report of a committee formed to investigate the latest migrant boat tragedy near Greece and present its findings.
Sharif instructed the formation of a committee, led by Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, to develop sustainable solutions for tackling human smuggling.
“The Prime Minister directed that all individuals involved in the heinous human smuggling trade be arrested within a week and legal action be taken against them,” said an official statement circulated by his office after the meeting.
The prime minister questioned why no disciplinary action had been taken so far against complicit government officials facilitating smugglers and directed authorities to ensure stricter visa checks and compliance with travel regulations for all outbound migrants.
The meeting was also provided an update on the identification of Pakistani nationals involved in the boat capsize near Greece this month and the progress of repatriating their bodies.

Topics: Federal Investigation Agency human smugglers

Pakistan rescues nine crew members from Indian cargo vessel after distress alert

Updated 27 December 2024
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Pakistan rescues nine crew members from Indian cargo vessel after distress alert

  • The rescue followed another operation this month in which 12 Indian crew members were saved
  • Incident reflects sporadic cooperation between the two nuclear rivals amid continuing tensions
Updated 27 December 2024
Arab News Pakistan

KARACHI: The Pakistan Maritime Security Agency (PMSA) successfully rescued nine crew members from an Indian cargo vessel, according to an official statement, after receiving a distress alert from Mumbai.
The incident marks the second such rescue operation by the PMSA within a month, highlighting sporadic cooperation between the two nuclear-armed rivals amid continued tensions.
Diplomatic ties between India and Pakistan remain strained. Both sides also detain each other’s fishermen who inadvertently cross maritime boundaries, often leaving them to languish in prison for extended periods.
The distressed Indian vessel, Tajdare Haram, reportedly experienced water ingress approximately 120 nautical miles south of Karachi, forcing the crew to abandon ship and take refuge in a life raft.
“Upon receiving the distress alert from the Maritime Rescue Coordination Center (MRCC) Mumbai, PMSA immediately launched a coordinated rescue effort,” the Pakistani agency announced in a statement Thursday.
“PMSA deployed an aircraft and directed nearby merchant vessels and PMSA ships to the scene of the incident,” it added. “The PMSA aircraft successfully located the survivors and facilitated the Indian Coast Guard vessel operating in nearby Indian waters for subsequent recovery.”
The rescue followed another operation earlier this month when the PMSA saved 12 Indian crew members from MSV Peeran-e-Peer in a similar situation.
The PMSA said it remained steadfast in its commitment to ensuring maritime safety and upholding international obligations under the Safety of Life at Sea Convention.

Topics: Pakistan India

Pakistan PM orders uninterrupted gas supply amid complaints from domestic consumers

Updated 27 December 2024
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Pakistan PM orders uninterrupted gas supply amid complaints from domestic consumers

  • Prime Minister Sharif orders reforms to the gas distribution system to resolve the issue permanently
  • Officials claim improvement in gas load management, say power sector also getting sufficient supply
Updated 27 December 2024
Arab News Pakistan

ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Friday called for reforms to the gas distribution system after complaints from domestic consumers about shortages, as he was briefed in a meeting that surplus regasified liquefied natural gas (RLNG) was available in the system.
Pakistan has long struggled with gas shortages, particularly during the winter months, as declining domestic production and increasing reliance on imports widen the supply-demand gap.
“Uninterrupted gas supply to domestic consumers during the winter must be ensured immediately,” the prime minister directed during the meeting. “Reforms should be introduced in the system’s structure to resolve this issue permanently.”
He maintained that ensuring gas supply to domestic consumers was the government’s top priority.
Officials briefed Sharif that, compared to the previous year, there has been an improvement in gas load management, resulting in reduced load shedding durations, adding that domestic consumers were currently receiving gas from 5 AM to 10 PM.
“The power sector is also being provided gas according to its demand,” the briefing noted. “Additionally, all gas fields in the country remain operational.
The officials also said the Sui Norther Gas Pipelines Limited had resolved 93 percent of consumer complaints, while Sui Souther Gas Company Limited’s resolution rate stood at 79 percent.
Pakistan’s restive southwestern Balochistan province accounts for much of the country’s domestic gas production, though separatist violence in the region often leads to attacks on pipelines, disrupting supply.
Earlier this week, unidentified assailants near Quetta blew up a pipeline, cutting off supply to several areas in Balochistan.
Repairs commenced after the area was secured, but the incident caused significant inconvenience to residents of the province.

Topics: gas supply fluctuations

Nearly 400 Pakistani soldiers killed in counter-terrorism operations in 2024, military says

Updated 27 December 2024
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Nearly 400 Pakistani soldiers killed in counter-terrorism operations in 2024, military says

  • Pakistani security forces conducted 59,775 intelligence-based operations this year, killing 925 militants, army says
  • Pakistan is battling a resurgence of militant violence particularly in its Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces
Updated 27 December 2024
KASHIF IMRAN

ISLAMABAD: Nearly 400 Pakistani soldiers and over 900 militants have been killed in counter-terrorism operations this year, the Pakistan army said on Friday, as the South Asian nation battles a resurgence of militant violence.
Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces have seen a surge in terror attacks in recent months, with groups like the Pakistani Taliban and other militant and separatist groups attacking security forces’ convoys and check posts and carrying out daily targeted killings and kidnappings of law enforcers and government officials.
Addressing a press conference on Friday, military spokesman Lt. Gen. Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry said security forces have conducted 59,775 intelligence-based operations this year, during which 925 militants had been killed and hundreds of others arrested. 
“Over the last five years, this is the highest number of terrorists killed in a single year,” Chaudhry said at a media briefing, saying 73 of the militants killed were “high value targets.”
“During these counter-terrorism operations in year 2024, 383 brave officers and jawans embraced martyrdom.”
The Pakistani Taliban group, also known as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), has increased attacks against Pakistani security forces mainly in the northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province bordering Afghanistan, particularly since November 2022 when a fragile truce between the Pakistani Taliban and the state broke down.
The southwestern Balochistan province, which borders Afghanistan and Iran and is home to key Chinese Belt and Road Initiative projects, has also seen a surge in strikes by separatist ethnic militants, who say they are fighting an unfair distribution of the remote, impoverished province’s mineral wealth. The Pakistani state denies the allegation and says it is working for the uplift of local communities.
The attacks in KP have soured Pakistan’s ties with Kabul, with Islamabad frequently accusing the Taliban administration of sheltering and supporting militant groups. Afghan officials deny state complicity, insisting Pakistan’s security issues are an internal matter.
On Wednesday, the Afghan Taliban said at least 46 people had been killed in Pakistani airstrikes in the eastern border province of Paktika. The Pakistan army and government have not officially confirmed the strikes. 
“Despite all of Pakistan’s efforts and repeatedly pointing out to the Afghan interim government on the state level, Fitna Al-Khwarij [TTP] and other terrorists have been carrying out terrorist activities in Pakistan using Afghanistan’s soil,” Chaudhry said.
“Pakistan will leave no stone unturned in dismantling terrorist networks and safeguarding its citizens against terrorism.”

Topics: Pakistan Army ISPR

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