Pakistan’s foreign policy outlook: 2022
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The negative trends that have characterized the regional situation are likely to persist and amplify in the year ahead, multiplying Pakistan’s concerns in the domains of security and economy.
For more than forty years, Afghanistan has been a source of immense problems for Pakistan, impacting directly Pakistan’s security, economy and socio-cultural fabric. The end of military engagement of US/NATO in Afghanistan has shifted the burdens of a broken state on to the region.
The Taliban ascendancy does not mean an end to the woes of Afghanistan that is now gripped in a humanitarian crisis and a failed economy. Reeling from crippling sanctions by the West, the interim government is facing immense difficulties in restoring normal governance.
The prospects of further refugee flows and re-sprouting of terrorist groups such as Daesh and TTP are real and could spell trouble for the region. There is a danger of intra-state implosion, which would be catastrophic for the region. Pakistan has therefore been urging the international community to engage with Afghanistan and offer assistance to alleviate the humanitarian situation and restore the state's financial solvency.
Aspects of the situation in Afghanistan will continue to demand Pakistan’s attention in 2022. Pakistan must build friendly and cooperative relations with Afghanistan based on principles of non-interference and non-intervention. The questions of legality and recognition of the Taliban government can wait. Pakistan needs to be careful and by continued engagement ensure that there are no misunderstandings with the Taliban government.
Afghanistan being landlocked will continue to depend on transit access for trade through Pakistani ports. Avenues of economic and trade cooperation could be jointly explored and CPEC connectivity extended to Afghanistan.
To the east, India’s threat to Pakistan’s security will persist and may aggravate in the coming years. The Indian government is bent on executing its Hindutva agenda by all means. It is practicing policies of exclusion and majoritarianism. The Hindutva enterprise is getting louder and bolder. The minorities in India, especially the Muslims are being targeted.
By seeking geo-economic centered, win-win partnerships both within the regions and with all major powers, Pakistan is expected to take initiatives that are geared to promote regional connectivity and economic and trade cooperation that will be beneficial to the region as a whole.
Salman Bashir
Kashmir is sizzling with anger against Indian atrocities and usurpation of the rights of the Kashmiri people. The BJP and its ideological patrons-- the RSS-- are inclined to redouble their high-handed policies of brutal oppression against the Kashmiris and minorities in India.
BJP politicians use Pakistan bashing to win votes and boastfully expound a Hindu expansionist agenda. Pakistan cannot be indifferent to these developments.
India has been receiving state-of-the-art weaponry, and is working on canisterization of nuclear warheads with missiles, anti-ballistic missile systems, MIRV, hyper sonics, weaponized drones, and augmented sea-based capabilities. This will compel Pakistan to take countermeasures.
Pakistan’s decision to prioritize economic development as a strategic imperative is expected to make new headway in the coming year in terms of foreign policy. By seeking geoeconomic centered, mutually beneficial and win-win partnerships both within the regions and with all major powers, Pakistan is expected to take initiatives that are geared to promote regional connectivity and economic and trade cooperation that will be beneficial to the region as a whole.
The CPEC Plus provides the vision and instruments to make a tangible difference. This however, entails requisite policies and effective implementation mechanisms at home. CPEC is an inclusive concept that means that it is open for anyone interested in participating. US and European as well as Japanese, Korean or any other country or business can take part in these projects.
The Central Asia-South Asia link up also needs close attention. This idea was originally proposed by the US and has the support of China. Pakistan needs to work through this bilaterally and through regional cooperation platforms such as ECO, SCO and SAARC.
Pakistan also needs to redouble efforts to revive SAARC cooperation. If India continues to block SAARC, alternate platforms/arrangements for economic cooperation in the wider region with the participation of interested states needs to be contemplated in consultation with China.
Pakistan’s relations with China are time tested. Relations with Russia are likely to grow in the coming years. Managing relations with the US is also of immense importance. Given the very real convergence of interests between Pakistan and the US, the Biden administration should be amenable to accord due priority to US-Pakistan relations.
A multi-aligned Pakistan focused primarily on economic development and not heavily invested in geopolitics is the course that is required to be pursued.
– Salman Bashir is a Pakistani diplomat who served as Foreign Secretary of Pakistan and as High Commissioner of Pakistan to India.
Twitter: @Salman_B_PK
