Iran ups the ante in search of Vienna nuclear negotiations advantage

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Anti-US sentiment is used to justify a ramping up of military activity against the West and its allies by Iran and its proxies. (AFP)
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Talks continue in Vienna over a new nuclear deal. (AFP)e
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Talks continue in Vienna over a new nuclear deal. (AFP)
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Updated 09 January 2022
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Iran ups the ante in search of Vienna nuclear negotiations advantage

  • Tehran’s proxies appear to have stepped up pressure on the US and its allies in the Gulf
  • Developments point to strategy to extract maximum concessions, say experts

DUBAI: Tehran’s proxies have been ramping up their activities on the battlefields of the Middle East in recent weeks. In Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, forces loyal to the Iranian regime have been busy, escalating attacks against US and Saudi targets.

One spark for this intensification may be the second anniversary of the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian general who set in motion much of the chaos still ravaging the region. But some analysts believe the prime reason is the Iran-US nuclear talks that have resumed in Vienna.

As the talks progress, albeit painstakingly, Iran’s officials have been increasingly upbeat, believing it is on the verge of salvaging a deal that would ease crippling US sanctions on its financial institutions and political bodies.

An informed source has told Arab News that the nuts and bolts of a new arrangement between Washington and Tehran are now primarily in place.

One remaining obstacle is a demand by Iran that the next US president should not walk out of any new deal. Whether the US could honor such a pledge remains unclear. In 2018, US President Donald Trump scorned and abandoned the “one-sided deal.” Iran responded by ceasing its cooperation with international inspectors that kept tabs on its nuclear infrastructure and ramping up its enrichment efforts.

The current president, Joe Biden, has staked much of his first term foreign policy legacy on reinstating the deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran. This has earned the opprobrium of regional allies as his officials persist with talks with Iranian hardliners.

Entifadh Qanbar, a former Iraqi spokesperson, said: “Iranians like to twist arms in negotiations. Robert Malley seems to be trying hard to appease the Iranians and, unfortunately, has the upper hand in the Biden administration when it comes to the negotiations. The Biden administration is coming off weak, especially in light of the chaos in Afghanistan after the US withdrawal.”

Dr. Ras Zimmt, an expert on Iran at the Institute for National Security Studies in Israel, said: “Looking at the recent attacks on Syria and Iraq, one of the main reasons it happened, I believe, is the second anniversary of the killing of Qassem Soleimani.” He said this hung a pall over the negotiations from the Iranian side.

Washington’s response to the attacks on US forces has been a far cry from Trump’s reaction as Iran-backed rioters approached the US embassy in Baghdad two years ago, when he sanctioned the assassination of Soleimani.




Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi (R), accompanied by chief of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Mohammad Eslami, speaks to the media during a visit to the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, southeast of Tehran. (Photo by Iranian Presidency / AFP)

Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi spoke on the anniversary of Soleimani’s death at a ceremony in a large prayer hall in Tehran. The president vowed revenge on Donald Trump, calling him the primary “aggressor and assassin.”

The Iranian general and his ally, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, who was also killed in the drone strike in January 2020, had been masters of the art of wielding powerful proxy forces in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen and also of bombing the US into concessions with low intensity – but high political impact – rocket fire.




Gen. Hossein Salami (C), head of Iran's Quds Force, attending military exercises dubbed Payambar-e-Azadm held in three provinces last December. (SEPAH NEWS handout photo via AFP) 

On Wednesday, an armed pro-Iranian militia called Gassem Al-Jabarayn claimed responsibility for Iraq’s drone and rocket attacks, which caused no casualties. The group posted online that they vow to maintain their attacks until there was a complete US withdrawal from Iraq. This group is believed to be a cover for one of the main Iranian proxies, whose influence in Iraq remains extensive as the central government continues to struggle to assert control.

Analysts in the region say the frequency of attacks in Iraq and Syria tends to increase whenever a weighty political decision draws near. Few such decisions have carried more consequences than whether to re-engage with Iran – an actor widely distrusted by the GCC and the rest of the Middle East.

To do so could be the biggest gamble of Biden’s presidency, potentially destabilizing bedrock security arrangements with core US allies, who remain averse to such a move without stringent restrictions to prevent even clandestine efforts to build nuclear weapons.

However, other commentators have played down the impact of the attacks on the Vienna talks.

Mohanad Hage Ali, director of communications and fellow of Carnegie Middle East Center, said: “These attacks are directed to serve an internal (Iranian) purpose and have little military significance given the absence of serious casualties. They are more useful in justifying the lack of reprisals for major attacks against Iranian forces and their militias.

“I see them as ineffective in pushing for a change in Vienna as compared to the actual progress in Iran’s nuclear program.”

Rasha Al-Aqeedi, an Iraqi researcher on militancy and ideology, said: “The recent attacks are unlikely to achieve concessions given their marginal impact on US personnel and facilities.”




Iraqi troops inspect an unfired Katyusha rocket during a rocket attack on a military base hosting US forces near Baghdad's international airport on Jan. 5, 2022. (Iraqi Media Security Cell/Handout via REUTERS)

Pentagon press secretary John Kirby blamed the attacks on a combination of hostility toward Washington’s continued presence in Iraq and the anniversary of Soleimani’s death.

Whether the rocket fire improves Iran’s hand is open to contention. However, even the perception Iran aims to create of being able to bomb itself into a better bargaining position acts as a fillip to the country’s negotiators, who have long touted the virtues of “strategic patience” over the capriciousness of US policy.

As the latest round of talks resumed, the US special envoy for Iran was in Saudi Arabia this week to talk with senior officials. Gulf countries retain a skeptical line on Iran, despite having embarked on a series of regional discussions at an intelligence level last year.

Central to Saudi concerns is that Iran has refused to use the Vienna talks to discuss its ballistic missile program or its interventions across a region still reeling from decades of war and insurrection — much of it Iranian-led.

“If the US does not maintain a tough hand, the region will sink further,” said a senior Iraqi official, “This is not a time for weak hearts.”

The forgotten Arabs of Iran
A century ago, the autonomous sheikhdom of Arabistan was absorbed by force into the Persian state. Today the Arabs of Ahwaz are Iran's most persecuted minority

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Israeli military tightens media rules over war crimes prosecution concern

Updated 6 sec ago
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Israeli military tightens media rules over war crimes prosecution concern

  • Under the new rules, media interviewing soldiers of the rank of colonel and under will not be able to display their full names or faces, similar to the rules that already exist for pilots, an Israeli military spokesperson says

JERUSALEM: The Israeli military placed new restrictions on media coverage of soldiers on active combat duty amid growing concern at the risk of legal action against reservists traveling abroad over allegations of involvement in war crimes in Gaza.
The move came after an Israeli reservist vacationing in Brazil left the country abruptly when a Brazilian judge ordered federal police to open an investigation following allegations from a pro-Palestinian group that he had committed war crimes while serving in Gaza.
Under the new rules, media interviewing soldiers of the rank of colonel and under will not be able to display their full names or faces, similar to the rules that already exist for pilots and members of special forces units, Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, an Israeli military spokesperson told reporters.
The interviewees must not be linked to a specific combat event they participated in.
“This is our new guideline to protect our soldiers and to make sure they are safe from these types of incident hosted by anti-Israel activists around the world,” Shoshani said.
He said that under existing military rules, soldiers were already not supposed to post videos and other images from war zones on social media “even though that’s never perfect and we have a large army.” There were also long-standing rules and guidelines for soldiers traveling abroad, he said.
Shoshani said activist groups, such as the Belgium-based Hind Rajab Foundation, which pushed for the action in Brazil, were “connecting the dots” between soldiers who posted material from Gaza and then posted other photos and videos of themselves while on holiday abroad.
Last year, the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, as well as a Hamas leader, Ibrahim Al-Masri, over alleged war crimes in Gaza, drawing outrage in Israel.
Shoshani said there had been “a handful” of cases where reservists traveling abroad had been targeted, in addition to the case in Brazil, all of which had been started by activist groups pushing authorities for an investigation.
“They didn’t open an investigation, they didn’t press charges or anything like that,” he said.


Syria is ‘the cornerstone for regional stability,’ GCC tells UN Security Council

Updated 09 January 2025
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Syria is ‘the cornerstone for regional stability,’ GCC tells UN Security Council

  • US representative says transition process and government that emerges from it must prioritize destruction of Assad regime’s chemical weapons stockpiles
  • Syrian envoy says new Syria ‘willing to play a positive role in international arena … promote international and regional peace and security, will not engage in any conflict or war’

NEW YORK CITY: The Gulf Cooperation Council on Wednesday stressed the need to respect the independence and territorial integrity of Syria, reject foreign interference, combat terrorism and respect the country’s religious and cultural diversity as it embarks on a new chapter of its history after the fall of long-time dictator Bashar Assad.

Speaking on behalf of the GCC, Kuwait’s permanent representative to the UN, Tareq Albanai, expressed its support for a comprehensive and inclusive political process, moves toward national reconciliation, and efforts to rebuild the state.

He called for national unity and comprehensive dialogue, adding that the “stability of Syria is the cornerstone for stability in region.”

Albanai was speaking at the Security Council’s first meeting of the year on Syria. He told members that the GCC decided to participate in the meeting only “to confirm our determination to help the country politically, economically, developmentally and humanitarianly.”

GCC member states categorically reject the repeated attacks on Syria by Israeli occupation forces and call for their immediate withdrawal from Syrian territories, he added.

“We renew our firm position that the Golan is Syrian territory and condemn the expansion of Israeli settlements in the occupied Golan,” Albanai said.

He also called for the lifting of the economic sanctions imposed on Syria during the civil war.

Egypt’s permanent representative to the UN, Osama Abdel Khalek, speaking on behalf of the UN Arab Group, also condemned the ongoing Israeli occupation of the Golan Heights, and what he described as “Israel’s opportunistic exploitation of the current situation to occupy further Syrian territories, bomb cities and infrastructure.”

He urged the Security Council to intervene and put an end to the Israeli “aggression, occupation” and “the illegal presence of all foreign forces in Syria.”

Syria’s permanent representative to the UN, Kusay Aldahak, told the council that caretaker authorities in the country are willing to build “friendly relations with all UN member states based on cooperation and shared interests and away from the policies of polarization.”

He added that the “new Syria is willing to play a positive role in the international arena. It will promote international and regional peace and security, and will not engage in any conflict or war.”

Aldahak called on the UN to “immediately and fully lift the unilateral coercive measures; provide necessary financing to meet needs and recover basic services, mainly electricity; support livelihood projects and sustainable development; reconstruct damaged service facilities; ensure de-mining; rid Syria of the remnants of war; and allow dignified refugees to return to their cities and homes.”

The UN’s humanitarian chief, Tom Fletcher, told council members that close to 13 million Syrians face acute food insecurity at a time when the World Food Programme has been forced to reduce the amount of food assistance it provides by 80 per cent in the past two years as a result of funding shortfalls.

More than 620,000 Syrians remain displaced as a result of the operation to remove Assad in November and December, on top of the 7 million who had already been displaced by more than a

decade of civil war. In the northwest of the country alone, 2 million people are living in camps, Fletcher said.

US ambassador Dorothy Shea said the transition process and the Syrian government that emerges from it must ensure any chemical weapons that remain in the former Assad regime’s stockpiles are secured and destroyed.

“We are encouraged by the cooperation to date and call for the continued commitment of relevant actors in Syria to work with the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, the United Nations, and other state and non-state partners to chart a course for the complete and verifiable elimination of any remaining elements of a chemical weapons program, and assist released detainees and the families of those whose whereabouts remain unknown,” she said.

Shea also urged the interim government to deter individual acts of vengeance, and to partner with international institutions to identify ways to ensure that those guilty of war crimes and crimes against humanity are held accountable.

Shea said the US welcomes “positive messages from Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham but will ultimately look for progress in actions, not words. We are looking for actions and words that will explore policies that prioritize the well-being of the Syrian people.”

The UN’s special envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, said he stands ready to work with the caretaker authorities “on how the nascent and important ideas and steps so far articulated and initiated could be developed towards a credible and inclusive political transition.”

The UK’s permanent representative to the UN, Barbara Woodward, said she was encouraged by the timelines set by the interim authorities for drafting a new constitution and holding elections and a national dialogue, and by their early engagement with the international community.

She called for their continued cooperation with UN as she welcomed the caretaker government’s efforts “to secure the chemical weapons stock and work with OPCW to fully declare and verify the destruction of such weapons. Now is the moment to close the Syria chemical weapons file once and for all.”

Russian ambassador Vassily Nebenzia said: “Syria has more than enough problems and their severity should in no case be underestimated.”

He warned of the “fairly high risk of intensification of hostilities” in many parts of the country, in particular Aleppo and Quneitra. He also highlighted “the direct threat to the territorial integrity of Syria” arising from “the unlawful actions of Israel, which is carrying out a policy of fait accompli in the occupied Golan Heights, and 500 square kilometers of Syrian land have already been seized.”

Nebenzia blamed sanctions imposed by the US “and its satellites” for exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in the country. As result of these sanctions, the Syrian economy is “under extreme pressure and is not able to cope with the challenges facing the country,” he added.


Egypt unveils ancient rock-cut tombs and burial shafts in Luxor

Updated 08 January 2025
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Egypt unveils ancient rock-cut tombs and burial shafts in Luxor

CAIRO: Egypt unveiled several discoveries near the famed city of Luxor on Wednesday, including ancient rock-cut tombs and burial shafts dating back 3,600 years.

They were unearthed at the causeway of Queen Hatshepsut’s funerary temple at Deir Al-Bahri on the Nile’s West Bank, according to a statement released by Zahi Hawass Foundation for Antiquities & Heritage. It said it worked in tandem with the Supreme Council of Antiquities on the site since September 2022.

Artifacts found at the tombs included bronze coins with the image of Alexander the Great dating to the Time of Ptolemy I (367-283), children’s toys made of clay, cartonnage and funerary masks that covered mummies, winged scarabs, beads and funerary amulets.

Hawass told reporters that the discoveries could “reconstruct history” and offer an understanding of the type of programs ancient Egyptians designed inside a temple.

The Archeologists also found the remains of Queen Hatshepsut’s Valley Temple, rock-cut tombs dating back to the Middle Kingdom (1938 B.C. — 1630 B.C.), burial shafts from the 17th dynasty, the tomb of Djehuti-Mes and part of the Assassif Ptolemaic Necropolis.

The rock-cut tombs had been previously robbed during the Ptolemaic period and later. Still, the Egyptian teams uncovered some artifacts such as pottery tables that were used to offer bread, wine and meat.

Inside the burial shafts dating back to 1580 B.C. — 1550 B.C., anthropoid wooden coffins were found, including one that belonged to a young child. It remained intact since its burial some 3,600 years ago.


Will Lebanon fill the presidential power vacuum or slide into further uncertainty?

Updated 08 January 2025
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Will Lebanon fill the presidential power vacuum or slide into further uncertainty?

  • Contenders for the presidency carry the baggage of past conflicts, failures in office, and problematic allegiances
  • Weakening of Hezbollah and the ouster of Syria’s Assad are likely to influence power dynamics in the Lebanese parliament 

DUBAI: Wracked by economic crisis and the recent conflict between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia, Lebanon faces a historic opportunity this week to break its political paralysis and elect a new president.

There are many contenders for the coveted role, but whoever is chosen by members of the Lebanese Parliament to form the next government will have important implications for the nation’s recovery and trajectory.

If Thursday’s election is successful, it could end the debilitating power vacuum that has prevailed since Michel Aoun’s presidential term ended in October 2022, leaving governance in Lebanon in limbo.

Settling on a candidate is now more urgent than ever, as Lebanon faces mounting pressure to stabilize its political and economic landscape ahead of the impending expiration of the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah.

None of Lebanon’s major parliamentary blocs have officially announced a presidential candidate, but several potential contenders have emerged.

Balancing the demilitarization of Hezbollah and the withdrawal of Israeli forces will require delicate maneuvering. (AFP)

One possible candidate is General Joseph Aoun, commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, who local media have tipped as the most likely winner.

Widely regarded as politically neutral, Aoun’s military experience and perceived impartiality could bring stability and credibility, both domestically and internationally.

His success would hinge on building a capable Cabinet with a comprehensive plan to stabilize the country’s governance, economic recovery and security, as well as lead postwar reconstruction efforts and the return of those displaced.

Balancing the demilitarization of Hezbollah and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern territories in accordance with the UN Resolution 1701 would also require delicate maneuvering.

However, his candidacy faces legal hurdles due to a constitutional requirement that two years must pass between his military role and the presidency.

Another potential contender is Samir Geagea, head of the Lebanese Forces. As a vocal Hezbollah critic with significant support among some Christian communities, Geagea could appeal to anti-Hezbollah factions.

His extensive political experience and advocacy for reform could help him to prioritize state-building, which many Lebanese see as crucial for the country’s future. His anti-Hezbollah stance could also restructure Lebanon’s stance in regional conflicts and international relations.

However, his polarizing history from Lebanon’s civil war could prove to be a barrier to national unity, raising fears that his candidacy could deepen divisions in Lebanon’s already fragmented political system.

Suleiman Frangieh, head of the pro-Hezbollah Marada movement, is another possibility, but risks alienating Christian communities and international allies.

Hailing from a prominent political dynasty, Frangieh is the grandson of a former president and has himself held various governmental and parliamentary roles. However, being a close ally of Hezbollah and the former Assad regime in Syria makes him a polarizing figure.

Finally, Jihad Azour, a former finance minister and International Monetary Fund official, represents a technocratic option with broad political appeal.

Lebanon faces a historic opportunity this week to break its political paralysis. (AFP)

He enjoys support from key factions, including the Lebanese Forces, the Progressive Socialist Party led by Walid Jumblatt, several Sunni MPs, influential Maronite religious figures and opposition groups.

Azour’s economic expertise could help to address Lebanon’s financial crisis, but some among the opposition view him as a continuation of past administrations.

Securing the presidency in Lebanon requires broad-based political consensus — a challenge in its deeply divided Parliament. Any major faction can block a nomination that does not align with its agenda.

Under Lebanon’s constitution, presidential elections require a two-thirds majority in the first round of parliamentary voting (86 out of 128 members) and a simple majority of 65 votes in subsequent rounds.

The Lebanese president’s powers, as defined by the constitution, reflect a blend of ceremonial and executive functions within a confessional system of governance that allocates political roles based on religious representation.

The president’s powers are limited by those of the prime minister, the council of ministers and Parliament, reflecting Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system established by the 1943 National Pact and reaffirmed by the 1989 Taif Agreement.

Lebanese presidents are traditionally drawn from the Maronite Christian community, as stipulated by the confessional system. This role is critical in maintaining the delicate political balance in the country.

Thursday’s election comes at a turbulent moment for Lebanon and its neighbors, which could impact the vote’s outcome.

A UNIFIL military vehicle conducts a patrol in the southern Lebanese village of Borj El Mlouk. (AFP)

Hezbollah has long dominated Lebanon’s political landscape, parliamentary dynamics and government composition. However, its devastating war with Israel, which began in October 2023 and ended with a fragile ceasefire in November 2024, gutted its leadership and depleted much of its public support.

Hezbollah’s failure to deter Israel’s war in Gaza or mount a sufficient defense against Israeli air and ground attacks in southern and eastern Lebanon has raised doubts about its remaining political influence in steering the selection of a presidential candidate.

The election also follows the sudden downfall of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria, toppled by armed opposition groups after a 13-year civil war. This shift has profoundly impacted Syria’s relationship with Hezbollah and other factions in Lebanon.

Syria’s influence on Lebanon historically included backing Maronite militias, interfering in political decisions, maintaining a 29-year military occupation and facilitating the flow of weapons from Iran to Hezbollah.

A destroyed mosque in the southern Lebanese village of Khiam. (AFP)

The change of power in Damascus adds uncertainty to Lebanon’s already fragile situation.

Regardless of these regional shifts, Lebanon’s next president will face the daunting task of guiding the country out of its economic mire while leading postwar reconstruction efforts.

Lebanon’s economic situation remains dire, with its financial collapse in 2019 described by the World Bank as one of the worst in modern history.

The Lebanese pound has lost more than 98 percent of its value against the US dollar on the black market, leading to hyperinflation and eroding the purchasing power of citizens.

Public services, including electricity, health care and water supply, have nearly collapsed, and unemployment has soared. More than 80 percent of the population now lives below the poverty line, according to the UN.

Efforts to secure international aid, including talks with the IMF, have stalled due to political gridlock and resistance to reforms. The new president will need regional and international standing to rally support for Lebanon’s recovery.

Whoever secures the presidency will face a formidable task in addressing Lebanon’s economic, political and social challenges. The alternative is continued paralysis, with devastating consequences for the country’s future.

 


Libya’s eastern parliament approves transitional justice law

Updated 08 January 2025
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Libya’s eastern parliament approves transitional justice law

  • The UN mission to Libya has repeatedly called for an inclusive, rights-based transitional justice and reconciliation process in the country

TRIPOLI: Libya’s eastern-based parliament has approved a national reconciliation and transitional justice law, three lawmakers said, a measure aimed at reunifying the oil-producing country after over a decade of factional conflict.

The House of Representatives spokesperson, Abdullah Belaihaq, said on the X platform that the legislation was passed on Tuesday by a majority of the session’s attendees in Libya’s largest second city Benghazi.

However, implementing the law could be challenging as Libya has been divided since a 2014 civil war that spawned two rival administrations vying for power in east and west following the NATO-backed uprising that toppled Muammar Qaddafi in 2011.

“I hope that it (the law) will be in effect all over the country and will not face any difficulty,” House member Abdulmenam Alorafi told Reuters by phone on Wednesday.

The UN mission to Libya has repeatedly called for an inclusive, rights-based transitional justice and reconciliation process in the North African country.

A political process to end years of institutional division and outright warfare has been stalled since an election scheduled for December 2021 collapsed amid disputes over the eligibility of the main candidates.

In Tripoli, there is the Government of National Unity under Prime Minister Abdulhamid Al-Dbeibah that was installed through a UN-backed process in 2021, but the parliament no longer recognizes its legitimacy. Dbeibah has vowed not to cede power to a new government without national elections.

There are two competing legislative bodies — the HoR that was elected in 2014 as the national parliament with a four-year mandate to oversee a political transition, and the High Council of State in Tripoli formed as part of a 2015 political agreement and drawn from a parliament first elected in 2012.

The Tripoli-based Presidential Council, which came to power with GNU, has been working on a reconciliation project and holding “a comprehensive conference” with the support of the UN and African Union. But it has been unable to bring all rival groups together because of their continuing differences.