Iran ups the ante in search of Vienna nuclear negotiations advantage

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Anti-US sentiment is used to justify a ramping up of military activity against the West and its allies by Iran and its proxies. (AFP)
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Updated 09 January 2022
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Iran ups the ante in search of Vienna nuclear negotiations advantage

  • Tehran’s proxies appear to have stepped up pressure on the US and its allies in the Gulf
  • Developments point to strategy to extract maximum concessions, say experts

DUBAI: Tehran’s proxies have been ramping up their activities on the battlefields of the Middle East in recent weeks. In Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, forces loyal to the Iranian regime have been busy, escalating attacks against US and Saudi targets.

One spark for this intensification may be the second anniversary of the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian general who set in motion much of the chaos still ravaging the region. But some analysts believe the prime reason is the Iran-US nuclear talks that have resumed in Vienna.

As the talks progress, albeit painstakingly, Iran’s officials have been increasingly upbeat, believing it is on the verge of salvaging a deal that would ease crippling US sanctions on its financial institutions and political bodies.

An informed source has told Arab News that the nuts and bolts of a new arrangement between Washington and Tehran are now primarily in place.

One remaining obstacle is a demand by Iran that the next US president should not walk out of any new deal. Whether the US could honor such a pledge remains unclear. In 2018, US President Donald Trump scorned and abandoned the “one-sided deal.” Iran responded by ceasing its cooperation with international inspectors that kept tabs on its nuclear infrastructure and ramping up its enrichment efforts.

The current president, Joe Biden, has staked much of his first term foreign policy legacy on reinstating the deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran. This has earned the opprobrium of regional allies as his officials persist with talks with Iranian hardliners.

Entifadh Qanbar, a former Iraqi spokesperson, said: “Iranians like to twist arms in negotiations. Robert Malley seems to be trying hard to appease the Iranians and, unfortunately, has the upper hand in the Biden administration when it comes to the negotiations. The Biden administration is coming off weak, especially in light of the chaos in Afghanistan after the US withdrawal.”

Dr. Ras Zimmt, an expert on Iran at the Institute for National Security Studies in Israel, said: “Looking at the recent attacks on Syria and Iraq, one of the main reasons it happened, I believe, is the second anniversary of the killing of Qassem Soleimani.” He said this hung a pall over the negotiations from the Iranian side.

Washington’s response to the attacks on US forces has been a far cry from Trump’s reaction as Iran-backed rioters approached the US embassy in Baghdad two years ago, when he sanctioned the assassination of Soleimani.




Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi (R), accompanied by chief of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Mohammad Eslami, speaks to the media during a visit to the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, southeast of Tehran. (Photo by Iranian Presidency / AFP)

Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi spoke on the anniversary of Soleimani’s death at a ceremony in a large prayer hall in Tehran. The president vowed revenge on Donald Trump, calling him the primary “aggressor and assassin.”

The Iranian general and his ally, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, who was also killed in the drone strike in January 2020, had been masters of the art of wielding powerful proxy forces in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen and also of bombing the US into concessions with low intensity – but high political impact – rocket fire.




Gen. Hossein Salami (C), head of Iran's Quds Force, attending military exercises dubbed Payambar-e-Azadm held in three provinces last December. (SEPAH NEWS handout photo via AFP) 

On Wednesday, an armed pro-Iranian militia called Gassem Al-Jabarayn claimed responsibility for Iraq’s drone and rocket attacks, which caused no casualties. The group posted online that they vow to maintain their attacks until there was a complete US withdrawal from Iraq. This group is believed to be a cover for one of the main Iranian proxies, whose influence in Iraq remains extensive as the central government continues to struggle to assert control.

Analysts in the region say the frequency of attacks in Iraq and Syria tends to increase whenever a weighty political decision draws near. Few such decisions have carried more consequences than whether to re-engage with Iran – an actor widely distrusted by the GCC and the rest of the Middle East.

To do so could be the biggest gamble of Biden’s presidency, potentially destabilizing bedrock security arrangements with core US allies, who remain averse to such a move without stringent restrictions to prevent even clandestine efforts to build nuclear weapons.

However, other commentators have played down the impact of the attacks on the Vienna talks.

Mohanad Hage Ali, director of communications and fellow of Carnegie Middle East Center, said: “These attacks are directed to serve an internal (Iranian) purpose and have little military significance given the absence of serious casualties. They are more useful in justifying the lack of reprisals for major attacks against Iranian forces and their militias.

“I see them as ineffective in pushing for a change in Vienna as compared to the actual progress in Iran’s nuclear program.”

Rasha Al-Aqeedi, an Iraqi researcher on militancy and ideology, said: “The recent attacks are unlikely to achieve concessions given their marginal impact on US personnel and facilities.”




Iraqi troops inspect an unfired Katyusha rocket during a rocket attack on a military base hosting US forces near Baghdad's international airport on Jan. 5, 2022. (Iraqi Media Security Cell/Handout via REUTERS)

Pentagon press secretary John Kirby blamed the attacks on a combination of hostility toward Washington’s continued presence in Iraq and the anniversary of Soleimani’s death.

Whether the rocket fire improves Iran’s hand is open to contention. However, even the perception Iran aims to create of being able to bomb itself into a better bargaining position acts as a fillip to the country’s negotiators, who have long touted the virtues of “strategic patience” over the capriciousness of US policy.

As the latest round of talks resumed, the US special envoy for Iran was in Saudi Arabia this week to talk with senior officials. Gulf countries retain a skeptical line on Iran, despite having embarked on a series of regional discussions at an intelligence level last year.

Central to Saudi concerns is that Iran has refused to use the Vienna talks to discuss its ballistic missile program or its interventions across a region still reeling from decades of war and insurrection — much of it Iranian-led.

“If the US does not maintain a tough hand, the region will sink further,” said a senior Iraqi official, “This is not a time for weak hearts.”

The forgotten Arabs of Iran
A century ago, the autonomous sheikhdom of Arabistan was absorbed by force into the Persian state. Today the Arabs of Ahwaz are Iran's most persecuted minority

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Missile launched from Yemen into Israel intercepted, Israeli army says

Updated 26 April 2025
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Missile launched from Yemen into Israel intercepted, Israeli army says

CAIRO: The Israeli army said in the early hours of Saturday that a missile that was launched from Yemen was intercepted before crossing into Israeli territory.
Sirens sounded in a number of areas in Israel following the launch, the Israeli army added in a statement.
There was no immediate comment from Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis, who have been launching attacks against Israel as well as ships they perceive as affiliated to Israel, in what they say is to support the Palestinians in Gaza against the Israeli offensive on the enclave.


Former Lebanese PM Diab questioned over Beirut port blast

Updated 25 April 2025
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Former Lebanese PM Diab questioned over Beirut port blast

  • Investigation gains momentum as French official files transferred to Judge Tarek Bitar
  • Lebanese President Aoun reiterates importance of judiciary in securing broader reform

BEIRUT: Former Lebanese Prime Minister Hassan Diab appeared before Judge Tarek Bitar on Friday for questioning related to the devastating Beirut port explosion of Aug. 4, 2020. 

Diab was interrogated for two and a half hours before being remanded for further questions. The session came a week after Bitar questioned former Interior Minister Nohad Machnouk.

In recent weeks, former General Security Chief Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim and former Head of State Security Maj. Gen. Tony Saliba also appeared before the judge.

The explosion devastated the capital’s waterfront, resulted in thousands of casualties, and has been compared in scale to a nuclear bomb.

It prompted widespread outrage both at home and abroad due to the long-term neglect in safely storing large quantities of ammonium nitrate at the port.

Diab, who was prime minister at the time of the explosion, had previously failed to attend hearings into the disaster for various reasons, notably claiming that “the investigative judge lacked jurisdiction to question” him, or stating that he was abroad.

For more than 18 months, several individuals contested their summons, arguing that Bitar was not the appropriate authority to investigate them.

They also initiated lawsuits against Bitar, whose work was suspended for a significant period due to political pressures and legal challenges.

During their unexpected appearances before the investigative judge, these individuals all expressed their intention to cooperate.

In Lebanon, political and judicial powers are intertwined, contrary to the constitution’s separation of powers principle.

The judiciary is mostly subject to political pressure, starting with judicial appointments, as with other institutions and administrations, which hinders reform efforts and the full independence of the judiciary.

A ministerial source told Arab News that President Joseph Aoun had always stressed two key pillars essential for the state’s recovery are security and the judiciary.

“The security appointments have been finalized, and measures are in place to restore security.

“The minister of justice and the High Judicial Council are actively working on judicial appointments to restore processes free from political interference and corruption.

“These procedures have started to affect the justice system, and everyone has begun to understand that the authority of the judiciary is not negotiable; the previously accepted method is no longer valid.”

The source emphasized that gaining political support for the judiciary is essential to shield it from interference.

This should be prioritized, particularly in light of the president’s commitment to maintaining judicial independence.

Additionally, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam is dedicated to implementing the ministerial statement that received unanimous support through the vote of confidence in his government, said the source.

Political authorities are still debating the law on judicial independence, but it remains unapproved and is currently stalled in joint parliamentary committees.

Aoun has previously stressed his belief in the judiciary as a cornerstone of reform.

In a recent meeting with the Bar Association, he noted that the challenge is not the coubtry’s laws themselves, but their implementation and accountability for violations.

“Too often, laws are interpreted for personal gain and interests. By working together, individuals committed to justice and accountability can address imbalances, fight corruption, and promote responsibility,” he said.

“Only the judiciary has the authority to deter offenders and corruption,” the president added.

Currently, the High Judicial Council is investigating bribery cases involving several judges and has issued a preliminary arrest warrant for one of them, who was arrested and transferred to the prison run by the General Directorate of Internal Security Forces.

The council recently set up three bodies to investigate cases against judges.

Lawyer Ghida Frangieh — who represents victims of the Beirut port explosion — told Arab News that the “renewed cooperation between the Public Prosecution and investigative Judge Bitar is a crucial development.

“It will help revive the port explosion case and allow the investigation to continue until an indictment is issued and, ultimately, a trial takes place,” Frangieh said.

“The election of the republic’s president, setting up a functional government instead of a caretaker government, and the political will for reform would collectively help reactivate Lebanon’s judicial system.

“This should have been the scenario in the port investigations three years ago, and all pending judicial cases should now be addressed and resolved in due order,” Frangieh added.

A French delegation is set to arrive in Beirut next Monday, following the transfer of judicial summons from the Public Prosecution at the Court of Cassation in Lebanon to France.

Bitar has requested access to French investigations regarding the port explosion, and the French judiciary has expressed willingness to support the judge by providing all necessary files and documents for his investigation.

Several French nationals were among those killed and injured in the Beirut port explosion.


US says blast near UNESCO world heritage site caused by Houthi missile

A picture shows a view of UNESCO-listed buildings in the old city of the Yemeni capital Sanaa on July 12, 2023. (AFP file photo)
Updated 26 April 2025
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US says blast near UNESCO world heritage site caused by Houthi missile

  • A Houthi official was quoted by the New York Times as saying the American denial was an attempt to smear the Houthis

WASHINGTON: The US military said a blast on Sunday near a UNESCO world heritage site in Yemen’s capital city of Sanaa was caused by a Houthi missile and not an American airstrike.
The Houthi-run Health Ministry said a dozen people were killed in the US strike in a neighborhood of Sanaa. The Old City of Sanaa is a recognized UNESCO World Heritage Site.
The US ordered the intensification of strikes on Yemen last month, with officials saying they will continue assaulting Houthis until they stop attacking Red Sea shipping.
A US Central Command spokesperson said the damage and casualties described by Houthi officials “likely did occur,” but a US attack did not cause them.
The spokesperson said the closest US strike was more than 5 km away that night.
The US military assessed that the damage was caused by a “Houthi air defense missile” based on a review of “local reporting, including videos documenting Arabic writing on the missile’s fragments at the market,” the spokesperson said, adding the Houthis subsequently arrested Yemenis.
A Houthi official was quoted by the New York Times as saying the American denial was an attempt to smear the Houthis.
Recent US strikes have killed dozens, including 74 at an oil terminal on Thursday in what was the deadliest strike in Yemen under Trump so far, according to the local Health Ministry.
The US military says the strikes aim to cut off the Houthi militant group’s military and economic capabilities.
Rights advocates have raised concerns about civilian killings, and three Democratic senators, including Sen. Chris Van Hollen, wrote to Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth on Thursday, demanding an accounting for the loss of civilian lives.
The Houthis have taken control of swaths of Yemen over the past decade.
Since November 2023, they have launched drone and missile attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, saying they were targeting ships linked to Israel.

 


Flow of Sudan war refugees puts Chad camp under strain

Sudanese refugees fill jerry cans with water at the Touloum refugee camp in the Wadi Fira province, Chad, on April 8, 2025. (AFP
Updated 25 April 2025
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Flow of Sudan war refugees puts Chad camp under strain

  • Chad has taken in more than 770,000 of them, according to the UN refugee agency — with many more likely on their way

IRIBA, Chad: Nadjala Mourraou held her haggard two-year-old son in her henna-tattooed hands for the medics to examine. Then came the painful diagnosis: little Ahma, like many of his fellow Sudanese refugees, was severely malnourished.
The pair were toward the front of a long line snaking out of the doctors’ tent at an already overcrowded refugee camp in east Chad, creaking under the strain as more and more people fleeing the civil war across the nearby border with Sudan turn up.
“We’re suffering from a lack of food,” complained the mother, who fled the fighting in Nyala, in Sudan’s South Darfur region, with Ahma more than a year ago.
Since their arrival at the Touloum camp, Mourraou added that all she and Ahma had to eat each day was a bowl of assida, a porridge made from sorghum.
Yet, as with other conditions at the camp, this meagre ration could deteriorate further as the war between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces drags on.
Besides killing tens of thousands, the two-year conflict has uprooted 13 million people, more than three million of whom have fled the country as refugees.
Chad has taken in more than 770,000 of them, according to the UN refugee agency — with many more likely on their way.
Between 25,000 and 30,000 Sudanese refugees already live in the makeshift sheet metal and white canvas tents, packed together across the arid Touloum camp, according to sources.
Recently, more and more of them have become malnourished, said Dessamba Adam Ngarhoudal, a nurse with medical charity Doctors Without Borders, or MSF.
“Out of 100 to 150 daily consultations, nearly half of them deal with cases of malnutrition,” said the 25-year-old medic.
The worst cases are sent to the Iriba district hospital, around half an hour’s drive away.
But the hospital was powerless to stop the first Sudanese infant dying of malnutrition under its care.
“Since the beginning of the month, we have already exceeded the capacity of the malnutrition ward at the hospital,” said MSF nurse Hassan Patayamou recently.
“And we expect admissions to continue to rise as the hot season progresses and temperatures rise above 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit).”
With the fighting set to grind on, Chad’s government fears the number of Sudanese refugees in the country could soon reach nearly a million.
That burden would be too heavy for impoverished Chad to bear alone, argues the UN High Commissioner for Refugees.
The refugee agency was seeking $409 million in aid to help the Sahel country — only 14 percent of which it had received by the end of February.
“The Chadian people have a tradition of welcoming their Sudanese brothers in distress,” said Djimbaye Kam-Ndoh, governor of Wadi Fira province where the Touloum camp is located.
“But the province’s population has practically doubled, and we’re asking for major support.”
Humanitarian groups are worried about the impact of US President Donald Trump’s move to freeze America’s foreign aid budget, while other donors, notably in Europe, have also made cuts to their financing.
“Hundreds of thousands of lives are at stake,” Alexandre Le Cuziat, the UN’s World Food Programme deputy director in Chad, said in a phone call.
Nearly 25 million people are suffering from acute food insecurity in Sudan itself, according to the WFP.
And with the rainy season just under two months away, medics fear outbreaks of diseases.
“We’re preparing for an explosion of cases of malnutrition and malaria,” said Samuel Sileshi, emergencies services coordinator for MSF in Central Darfur state.
“This year, we are also facing measles epidemics in Darfur,” he said.
That unhealthy cocktail of diseases, he warned, “could have devastating consequences,” not least for children.

 


WFP says has depleted all its food stocks in Gaza

Updated 25 April 2025
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WFP says has depleted all its food stocks in Gaza

  • Entry of all humanitarian aid has been blocked by Israel since March 2

GAZA CITY, Palestinian Territories: The UN’s World Food Programme on Friday warned it has depleted all its food stocks in war-ravaged Gaza, where the entry of all humanitarian aid has been blocked by Israel since March 2.
“Today, WFP delivered its last remaining food stocks to hot meals kitchens in the Gaza Strip. These kitchens are expected to fully run out of food in the coming days,” WFP said in a statement.