Iran ups the ante in search of Vienna nuclear negotiations advantage

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Anti-US sentiment is used to justify a ramping up of military activity against the West and its allies by Iran and its proxies. (AFP)
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Updated 09 January 2022
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Iran ups the ante in search of Vienna nuclear negotiations advantage

  • Tehran’s proxies appear to have stepped up pressure on the US and its allies in the Gulf
  • Developments point to strategy to extract maximum concessions, say experts

DUBAI: Tehran’s proxies have been ramping up their activities on the battlefields of the Middle East in recent weeks. In Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, forces loyal to the Iranian regime have been busy, escalating attacks against US and Saudi targets.

One spark for this intensification may be the second anniversary of the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian general who set in motion much of the chaos still ravaging the region. But some analysts believe the prime reason is the Iran-US nuclear talks that have resumed in Vienna.

As the talks progress, albeit painstakingly, Iran’s officials have been increasingly upbeat, believing it is on the verge of salvaging a deal that would ease crippling US sanctions on its financial institutions and political bodies.

An informed source has told Arab News that the nuts and bolts of a new arrangement between Washington and Tehran are now primarily in place.

One remaining obstacle is a demand by Iran that the next US president should not walk out of any new deal. Whether the US could honor such a pledge remains unclear. In 2018, US President Donald Trump scorned and abandoned the “one-sided deal.” Iran responded by ceasing its cooperation with international inspectors that kept tabs on its nuclear infrastructure and ramping up its enrichment efforts.

The current president, Joe Biden, has staked much of his first term foreign policy legacy on reinstating the deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran. This has earned the opprobrium of regional allies as his officials persist with talks with Iranian hardliners.

Entifadh Qanbar, a former Iraqi spokesperson, said: “Iranians like to twist arms in negotiations. Robert Malley seems to be trying hard to appease the Iranians and, unfortunately, has the upper hand in the Biden administration when it comes to the negotiations. The Biden administration is coming off weak, especially in light of the chaos in Afghanistan after the US withdrawal.”

Dr. Ras Zimmt, an expert on Iran at the Institute for National Security Studies in Israel, said: “Looking at the recent attacks on Syria and Iraq, one of the main reasons it happened, I believe, is the second anniversary of the killing of Qassem Soleimani.” He said this hung a pall over the negotiations from the Iranian side.

Washington’s response to the attacks on US forces has been a far cry from Trump’s reaction as Iran-backed rioters approached the US embassy in Baghdad two years ago, when he sanctioned the assassination of Soleimani.




Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi (R), accompanied by chief of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Mohammad Eslami, speaks to the media during a visit to the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, southeast of Tehran. (Photo by Iranian Presidency / AFP)

Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi spoke on the anniversary of Soleimani’s death at a ceremony in a large prayer hall in Tehran. The president vowed revenge on Donald Trump, calling him the primary “aggressor and assassin.”

The Iranian general and his ally, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, who was also killed in the drone strike in January 2020, had been masters of the art of wielding powerful proxy forces in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen and also of bombing the US into concessions with low intensity – but high political impact – rocket fire.




Gen. Hossein Salami (C), head of Iran's Quds Force, attending military exercises dubbed Payambar-e-Azadm held in three provinces last December. (SEPAH NEWS handout photo via AFP) 

On Wednesday, an armed pro-Iranian militia called Gassem Al-Jabarayn claimed responsibility for Iraq’s drone and rocket attacks, which caused no casualties. The group posted online that they vow to maintain their attacks until there was a complete US withdrawal from Iraq. This group is believed to be a cover for one of the main Iranian proxies, whose influence in Iraq remains extensive as the central government continues to struggle to assert control.

Analysts in the region say the frequency of attacks in Iraq and Syria tends to increase whenever a weighty political decision draws near. Few such decisions have carried more consequences than whether to re-engage with Iran – an actor widely distrusted by the GCC and the rest of the Middle East.

To do so could be the biggest gamble of Biden’s presidency, potentially destabilizing bedrock security arrangements with core US allies, who remain averse to such a move without stringent restrictions to prevent even clandestine efforts to build nuclear weapons.

However, other commentators have played down the impact of the attacks on the Vienna talks.

Mohanad Hage Ali, director of communications and fellow of Carnegie Middle East Center, said: “These attacks are directed to serve an internal (Iranian) purpose and have little military significance given the absence of serious casualties. They are more useful in justifying the lack of reprisals for major attacks against Iranian forces and their militias.

“I see them as ineffective in pushing for a change in Vienna as compared to the actual progress in Iran’s nuclear program.”

Rasha Al-Aqeedi, an Iraqi researcher on militancy and ideology, said: “The recent attacks are unlikely to achieve concessions given their marginal impact on US personnel and facilities.”




Iraqi troops inspect an unfired Katyusha rocket during a rocket attack on a military base hosting US forces near Baghdad's international airport on Jan. 5, 2022. (Iraqi Media Security Cell/Handout via REUTERS)

Pentagon press secretary John Kirby blamed the attacks on a combination of hostility toward Washington’s continued presence in Iraq and the anniversary of Soleimani’s death.

Whether the rocket fire improves Iran’s hand is open to contention. However, even the perception Iran aims to create of being able to bomb itself into a better bargaining position acts as a fillip to the country’s negotiators, who have long touted the virtues of “strategic patience” over the capriciousness of US policy.

As the latest round of talks resumed, the US special envoy for Iran was in Saudi Arabia this week to talk with senior officials. Gulf countries retain a skeptical line on Iran, despite having embarked on a series of regional discussions at an intelligence level last year.

Central to Saudi concerns is that Iran has refused to use the Vienna talks to discuss its ballistic missile program or its interventions across a region still reeling from decades of war and insurrection — much of it Iranian-led.

“If the US does not maintain a tough hand, the region will sink further,” said a senior Iraqi official, “This is not a time for weak hearts.”

The forgotten Arabs of Iran
A century ago, the autonomous sheikhdom of Arabistan was absorbed by force into the Persian state. Today the Arabs of Ahwaz are Iran's most persecuted minority

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Israel FM says Golan to ‘remain part of’ Israel in any Syria peace deal

Updated 7 sec ago
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Israel FM says Golan to ‘remain part of’ Israel in any Syria peace deal

  • Golan Heights “will remain part of” Israel under any potential peace agreement with Syria, Israel's FM says

JERUSALEM: Israel’s Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said Monday that the occupied Golan Heights “will remain part of” Israel under any potential peace agreement with Syria.
“In any peace agreement, the Golan will remain part of the State of Israel,” Saar told a news conference in Jerusalem, referring to the territory Israel seized from Syria in 1967 and later annexed in a move not recognized by the United Nations.
 


Iranian Ambassador: Saudi Arabia Played Key Role in Preventing Escalation

Updated 38 min 7 sec ago
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Iranian Ambassador: Saudi Arabia Played Key Role in Preventing Escalation

Nearly two years after Iran and Saudi Arabia restored diplomatic relations, Iran’s Ambassador to the Kingdom, Dr. Alireza Enayati, praised Riyadh’s role in reducing tensions and fostering dialogue.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Enayati described the progress as “equivalent to achievements that typically take years,” underscoring what he called the “deep roots and substance” of the relationship.

Enayati, who first served in Saudi Arabia as Iran’s consul in Jeddah in 1990 and later as chargé d’affaires in Riyadh, returned in 2023 as ambassador following the March agreement brokered by China to resume ties after seven years of rupture.

Commenting on recent Israeli strikes against Iran, Enayati called the attacks “blatant aggression,” noting that they took place while Tehran was engaged in indirect negotiations with Washington.

“Iran was attacked in the middle of the night, while people slept in their homes. It was our legitimate right under the UN Charter to respond decisively and demonstrate that while Iran does not seek war, it will defend itself with strength and resolve,” he said.

He emphasized that regional reactions to the escalation highlighted a spirit of solidarity.

“The first call our Foreign Minister received was from Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, condemning the attacks, followed by a statement from the Saudi Foreign Ministry,” he noted. “These positions were crowned by a phone call from His Royal Highness Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to President Pezeshkian, expressing condemnation and solidarity, followed by President Pezeshkian’s call back to the Crown Prince and statements of support from several Gulf states.”

Enayati commended Riyadh’s efforts to de-escalate the crisis, describing Saudi Arabia’s role as “honorable” and “blessed.” He added, “In all our bilateral discussions, Iran has acknowledged the Kingdom’s constructive stance and its efforts to prevent further aggression. We welcome any role by our Saudi brothers, especially His Royal Highness Prince Mohammed, who has always stood by us.”

The ambassador pointed to the revival of travel and religious exchange as a sign of rapprochement. “This year alone, over 200,000 Iranians have performed Umrah, and when including Hajj pilgrims, the number exceeds 400,000 visitors to the Kingdom - an extremely positive indicator,” he said.

Enayati also highlighted the recent visit of Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman to Tehran, describing it as a “historic turning point” that shifted relations from routine to strategic. “The visit and the meetings with President Pezeshkian and the Supreme Leader left a strong impression that we are partners in building regional stability,” he said.

While acknowledging significant progress, Enayati stressed that economic and trade relations still require more effort. “We have agreements on trade, investment, culture, and youth reaffirmed in the Beijing accord,” he said, adding that talks are under way on agreements to avoid double taxation, promote mutual investment, and develop overland transport corridors linking Saudi Arabia and its neighbors to Central Asia.

Responding to criticism that Iran plays a destabilizing role, Enayati said: “We are not outsiders imposing our presence. We are part of the region, its people, and its culture. Differences in political perspectives do not erase our shared bonds. Dialogue is the only path forward, and there is no substitute.”

He concluded by emphasizing that genuine regional security must be anchored in development and economic cooperation rather than military competition. “When security moves beyond weapons and geopolitics to focus on prosperity and shared progress, everyone benefits,” he said.


Israelis attack soldiers in occupied West Bank

Updated 30 June 2025
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Israelis attack soldiers in occupied West Bank

  • Violence has escalated in the West Bank since the start of the Gaza war

JERUSALEM: Israeli civilians assaulted security forces and vandalized military vehicles and a security installation outside an army base overnight in the occupied West Bank, the military said on Monday.

According to Israeli media, settlers targeted the commander of the Binyamin Regional Brigade base in the central West Bank, calling him a “traitor.”

The officer was among troops attacked on Friday night as they tried to stop settlers entering a closed military zone near the Palestinian village of Kafr Malik. Six civilians were arrested following the clashes.

“Dozens of Israeli civilians gathered at the entrance” of the brigade’s base on Sunday evening, the military said in a statement Monday.

“The gathering became violent and some of the civilians at the scene attacked the security forces, sprayed pepper spray at them, and vandalized military vehicles,” it added.

“The IDF (military), police, and border guards intervened to disperse the gathering,” the statement added, noting one Israeli citizen was injured in the confrontation.

In another statement a few hours later, the army said that “Israeli civilians set fire to and vandalized a security site containing systems that contribute to thwarting terrorist attacks” near the base.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar strongly condemned “any violence against the IDF and security forces.”

“Such events are unacceptable, and offenders must be severely punished,” he wrote on X.

“The IDF and security forces work day and night to protect the citizens of Israel and ensure its security. We must support them, not hinder their activities, and under no circumstances attack them,” he added.

Bezalel Smotrich, Israel’s far-right finance minister, a staunch supporter of the settlements who calls for the annexation of the West Bank, also condemned the violence against security forces and the destruction of property, saying a “red line” had been crossed.

In a post on X, he urged the police to investigate the incident and bring those responsible to justice.

Several human rights NGOs have denounced the rise in violence committed by settlers in the West Bank and their perceived impunity.

Violence has escalated in the West Bank since the start of the Gaza war, triggered by the attack by the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas on Israel on October 7, 2023.


Sudan refugees face deepening hunger as funds dry up: UN

Updated 30 June 2025
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Sudan refugees face deepening hunger as funds dry up: UN

  • The WFP warned support to Sudanese refugees in Egypt, Ethiopia, Libya and the Central African Republic “may grind to a halt in the coming months as resources run dry"

KHARTOUM: Millions of people displaced by the war in Sudan are at risk of falling deeper into crisis as funding for food aid dwindles, the UN’s World Food Programme warned Monday.
Since April 2023, war between the Sudanese army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has created the world’s largest displacement crisis, with more than 10 million people displaced inside the country.
Another four million have fled across borders, mainly to Chad, Egypt and South Sudan.
“This is a full-blown regional crisis that’s playing out in countries that already have extreme levels of food insecurity and high levels of conflict,” said Shaun Hughes, WFP’s emergency coordinator for the Sudan regional crisis.
The United Nations says its humanitarian response plan for Sudan — also the world’s largest hunger crisis — is only 14.4 percent funded.
A UN conference in Spain this week aims to rally international donors, following deep funding shortfalls that have affected relief operations globally.
The WFP warned support to Sudanese refugees in Egypt, Ethiopia, Libya and the Central African Republic “may grind to a halt in the coming months as resources run dry.”
In Egypt, which hosts around 1.5 million people who fled Sudan, food aid for 85,000 refugees — 36 percent of those previously supported — had already been cut.
Without new funding, the WFP warned, all assistance to the most vulnerable refugees would be suspended by August.
In Chad, where more than 850,000 people have fled but find little help in overwhelmed camps, the WFP said food rations would be reduced even further.
Around 1,000 refugees continue to arrive in Chad each day from Sudan’s western Darfur region, where famine has already been declared and displacement camps regularly come under attack.
“Refugees from Sudan are fleeing for their lives and yet are being met with more hunger, despair, and limited resources on the other side of the border,” said Hughes.
“Food assistance is a lifeline for vulnerable refugee families with nowhere else to turn.”
Inside Sudan, more than eight million people are estimated to be on the brink of famine, with nearly 25 million suffering dire food insecurity.


Firefighters in Turkiye battle to contain wildfires for second day

Updated 30 June 2025
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Firefighters in Turkiye battle to contain wildfires for second day

  • Helicopters, fire extinguishing aircrafts and other vehicles, and more than a thousand people were trying to extinguish the fires

ISTANBUL: Firefighters in Turkiye are battling wildfires for a second day raging in the western province of Izmir fanned by strong winds, the forestry minister and local media said on Monday
Wildfires in Kuyucak and Doganbey areas of Izmir were fanned overnight by winds reaching 40-50 kph (25-30 mph) and four villages and two neighborhoods had been evacuated, Forestry Minister Ibrahim Yumakli said.
Helicopters, fire extinguishing aircrafts and other vehicles, and more than a thousand people were trying to extinguish the fires, Yumakli told reporters in Izmir.
Media footage showed teams using tractors with water trailers and helicopters carrying water, as smoke billowed over hills marked with charred trees.
Turkiye’s coastal regions have in recent years been ravaged by wildfires, as summers have become hotter and drier, which scientists relate to climate change.