Nuclear war is a genuine threat, so why have non-proliferation efforts stalled?

Experts believe the risk of nuclear war is closer than ever, with the infamous Doomsday Clock — a prediction on when mushroom clouds will rise over the world’s cities — being set to 100 seconds to midnight. (AFP)
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Updated 11 January 2022
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Nuclear war is a genuine threat, so why have non-proliferation efforts stalled?

  • The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons committed states to reduce their arsenals with the goal of eliminating them
  • The P5 group of nations released a joint statement on Jan. 3 affirming  “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought”

NEW YORK CITY: Although the world is understandably preoccupied with the coronavirus pandemic, climate change, and regional conflicts, it would be wrong to assume that the threat of nuclear war had vanished. In fact, the probability of nuclear annihilation remains perilously high.

At the beginning of the year, the pandemic claimed yet another casualty — the 10th Review Conference of the parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which had been scheduled to take place on Jan. 4.

The postponement of the meeting until August went largely unreported at the time because, it would appear, the perceived threat posed by nuclear weapons had lost its urgency in recent decades.

However, the development came as tensions escalated between Western countries and Russia over Ukraine as well as between the US and China over Taiwan.

The non-proliferation treaty, or NPT, which forms the foundation of the non-proliferation regime, was signed in 1968 and came into force in 1970. It is the single most important instrument that the 191 states-parties have to prevent further proliferation and lead the world toward total disarmament.

The bargain that underpins the NPT is very simple: The nuclear states under the treaty commit to reduce their nuclear arsenals with the ultimate goal of eliminating them, and the non-nuclear states adhere to their commitments enshrined in the treaty to not acquire nuclear weapons.

Not everyone has adhered to this. India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea are not signatories, while Iran, although an NPT signatory, is nevertheless enriching uranium and is locked in a battle with the West over its nuclear program.

It is the second time the 10th RevCon has been rescheduled due to the pandemic. The 2020 conference, which would have coincided with the NPT’s 50th anniversary, was also delayed, scuttling hopes of getting the non-proliferation regime back on track and breathing new life into the arms control and disarmament process.




Iran, although an NPT signatory, is nevertheless enriching uranium and is locked in a battle with the West over its nuclear program. (AFP/File Photo)

The three pillars of the NPT — non-proliferation, disarmament, and the peaceful use of nuclear technologies — have seen varying degrees of success.

While the non-nuclear states kept their end of the bargain and adhered to the treaty, bar a couple of exceptions, the nuclear states have been less faithful. They have not fulfilled their obligations, as stipulated by article six of the NPT, to rid the world of nuclear weapons. This has led to tensions and placed a strain on the whole non-proliferation regime.

Looking for an alternative, the non-nuclear states pushed for a process in the UN General Assembly, which culminated in the adoption of a Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons on July 7, 2017, coming into force on Jan. 22, 2021.

However, the conference’s postponement could not have come at a worse time, as anxiety over the fraying of the architecture of arms control is mounting.

Experts believe the risk of nuclear war is greater than ever. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has set its Doomsday Clock at 100 seconds to midnight — the closest the timepiece has been to symbolic doom in its more than 70 years of its existence.

FASTFACTS

* With 191 signatories, the NPT is the world’s most widely ratified nuclear arms control agreement.

* The NPT Review Conference was supposed to start on Jan. 4 at the UN HQ.

* Review conferences, to take stock of compliance and commit to further steps, are supposed to happen every 5 years.

* The postponed 10th Review Conference was initially scheduled to start in April 2020.

A speech by former US Senator Sam Nunn, an authority on nuclear weapons, on the 50th anniversary of the NPT in 2020 described the danger in stark terms.

“We are moving into an era of enhanced nuclear risk,” he said, as a result of the “stalled progress on North Korea, the uncertain future of the Iran agreement and their nuclear program, the continued failure to bring the Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty into force, and the understandable frustration by the non-nuclear states about the slow pace of nuclear disarmament.”

Today, even as the pandemic rages, nuclear states have continued to modernize and upgrade their arsenals. According to the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, the world’s nine nuclear states spent $72.6 billion on modernizing their arsenals in 2020 — up $1.4 billion on 2019 spending. In doing so, many of these states have violated the NPT.

The Stockholm International Peace Institute has estimated that the world’s nuclear states collectively possessed approximately 13,080 nuclear weapons as of January 2021. That figure represented a small decrease on the 13,400 estimate of 2020.

However, this has been offset by the increase in the number of nuclear weapons deployed with operational forces, from 3,720 in 2020 to 3,825 in 2021. Of these, around 2,000 were “kept in a state of high operational alert,” the institute said in its 2021 report.

All of this has occurred in the absence of a credible arms control process because of growing tensions between the US and Russia over Ukraine, and America and China over Taiwan, Hong Kong, and the Indo-Pacific.

Although they were disappointed by the conference postponement, the non-nuclear states were heartened on Jan. 3 when the US, Russia, China, France, and the UK, a group of powers known as the P5, put out a joint statement claiming they “consider the avoidance of war between nuclear-weapon states and the reduction of strategic risks as our foremost responsibilities.

“We affirm that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought. As nuclear use would have far-reaching consequences, we also affirm that nuclear weapons — for as long as they continue to exist — should serve defensive purposes, deter aggression, and prevent war. We believe strongly that the further spread of such weapons must be prevented.”




More than one million people gathered on Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang 11 January 2003, to hear political leaders hail North Korea's dramatic decision to withdraw from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT). (AFP/File Photo)

They also committed to “maintain and further strengthen our national measures to prevent unauthorized or unintended use of nuclear weapons.”

Perhaps most importantly, they reaffirmed their commitment “to our Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty obligations, including our Article VI obligations to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control.”

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, said he was “encouraged” by the commitments voiced by the nuclear states “to pursue measures to prevent nuclear war,” with the added caveat that “the only way to eliminate all nuclear risks is to eliminate all nuclear weapons.”

Non-proliferation groups and experts also applauded the joint statement, but want to see the nuclear powers take genuine, concrete action.




US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton speaks at the UN 2010 High-level Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons at its New York headquarters in 2010. (AFP/File Photo)

From the standpoint of Arab countries, there was also an important element missing from the joint statement, which failed to mention the 1995 NPT resolution introduced by the US, the UK, and Russia agreeing in support of the principle of a Middle East region free from all weapons of mass destruction.

It had been hoped that the 10th RevCon would provide an opportunity to acknowledge the progress made in this regard. The first Conference on the Establishment of a Middle East Zone Free of Nuclear Weapons and Other Weapons of Mass Destruction took place at the UN headquarters in New York in 2019, chaired by Jordan, and again in 2021, chaired by Kuwait.

Israel, the only state in the Middle East thought to possess nuclear weapons, did not attend any of the sessions, nor did the US, despite being one of the main sponsors of the 1995 resolution.

Supporters of arms control therefore have little choice but to wait until August to see whether the P5 will back up their words with action and deliver a “meaningful outcome” that will preserve the integrity of the NPT.


UK police studying Glastonbury performances after anti-Israel chants

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UK police studying Glastonbury performances after anti-Israel chants

GLASTONBURY: British police said they were considering whether to launch an investigation after performers at Glastonbury Festival made anti-Israel comments during their shows.
“We are aware of the comments made by acts on the West Holts Stage at Glastonbury Festival this afternoon,” Avon and Somerset Police, in western England, said on X late on Saturday.
Irish hip-hop group Kneecap and punk duo Bob Vylan made anti-Israeli chants in separate shows on the West Holts stage on Saturday. One of the members of Bob Vylan chanted “Death, death, to the IDF” in a reference to the Israel Defense Forces.
“Video evidence will be assessed by officers to determine whether any offenses may have been committed that would require a criminal investigation,” the police statement said.
The Israeli Embassy in Britain said it was “deeply disturbed by the inflammatory and hateful rhetoric expressed on stage at the Glastonbury Festival.”
Prime Minister Keir Starmer said earlier this month it was “not appropriate” for Kneecap to appear at Glastonbury.
The band’s frontman Liam Óg Ó hAnnaidh was charged with a terrorism offense last month for allegedly displaying a flag in support of Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah at a concert in November. He has denied the charge.
A British government minister said it was appalling that the anti-Israel chants had been made at Glastonbury, and that the festival’s organizers and the BBC broadcaster — which is showing the event — had questions to answer.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting said he was also appalled by violence committed by Israeli settlers in the occupied West Bank.
“I’d also say to the Israeli Embassy, get your own house in order in terms of the conduct of your own citizens and the settlers in the West Bank,” Streeting told Sky News.
“I wish they’d take the violence of their own citizens toward Palestinians more seriously,” he said.

Taiwan VP says not intimidated after alleged China plot

Updated 24 min 5 sec ago
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Taiwan VP says not intimidated after alleged China plot

  • Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim’s motorcade was followed, surveilled and nearly hit by a car during a visit to the Czech Republic in 2024

TAIPEI: Taiwan’s vice president said she would not be intimidated by Beijing after the government accused Chinese embassy staff of planning to ram her car during an official visit to Europe.
Taiwan’s top China policy body, the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC), on Friday said Hsiao Bi-khim’s motorcade was followed, surveilled and nearly hit by a car during a visit to the Czech Republic in March 2024.
Citing a Czech intelligence agency report, the council said staff from the Chinese Embassy in Prague were behind the incident.
“I had a great visit to Prague & thank the Czech authorities for their hospitality & ensuring my safety,” Hsiao, who was vice president-elect at the time of the trip, posted on social media on Saturday.
“The CCP’s unlawful activities will NOT intimidate me from voicing Taiwan’s interests in the international community.”
“Taiwan will not be isolated by intimidation,” she added.
Like most countries, Prague does not have official diplomatic relations with Taipei.
China claims Taiwan as its territory and in recent years, has ramped up the deployment of fighter jets and warships around the self-ruled island. It has also sought to erase Taiwan from the international stage by poaching its diplomatic allies and blocking it from global forums.
Taipei said on Friday that “the Chinese Embassy in the Czech Republic followed, conducted surveillance on, and even attempted to ram the motorcade, seriously threatening the personal safety of Vice President Hsiao and her entourage.”
It added the incident exposed CCP’s “violent nature” and lack of “sincerity” in communication.
A Taiwan security official, speaking to AFP on condition of anonymity, said it was a “typical case” of China’s “transnational repression” against dissidents or those who criticize China.
“China uses legal grey areas to harass, threaten or oppress their targets,” the official said.
The Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC), an international group that has challenged Beijing’s human rights record, said in a statement signed by 51 lawmakers from nearly 30 countries that it supported Hsiao and “Taiwanese citizens who may be subject to coercion by the Chinese state while traveling abroad.”
China’s foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said Friday that Prague had violated the “One-China principle” and its political commitments to China by allowing Hsaio, who it called a diehard “Taiwan independence” activist, to visit.
“Chinese diplomats always abide by the laws and regulations of host countries,” he said. He urged other countries not to be exploited by “Taiwan independence” separatists to “stir up troubles” and undermine the relations with China.


Germany backs Israel after Iran war in first high-level visit

Updated 38 min 54 sec ago
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Germany backs Israel after Iran war in first high-level visit

BAT YAM: German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt expressed support for Israel on Sunday during a visit to the site of an Iranian missile strike near Tel Aviv, part of the destruction left by this month’s 12-day war.
It was the first visit by a senior foreign official since the war between Iran and Israel, which ended on Tuesday after a ceasefire was announced.
“We must deepen our support for Israel,” Dobrindt said, speaking amid the rubble in Bat Yam, south of the coastal hub of Tel Aviv, where an Iranian strike killed nine people including three children.
Israel launched a bombing campaign against Iran on June 13, saying it was aimed at keeping the Islamic republic from developing a nuclear weapon — an ambition Tehran has consistently denied.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar called the German visit a gesture of “solidarity” and urged the international community to reimpose sanctions on Iran.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on June 17, on the sidelines of a G7 summit in Canada, said Israel was doing the “dirty work... for all of us” by targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
Israel has acknowledged being hit by more than 50 missiles during the 12-day war with Iran, resulting in 28 deaths, but the true extent of the damage may never be known due to stringent media restrictions.
In Iran, Israeli strikes killed at least 627 civilians and injured nearly 4,900, according to official figures.


Russia launches biggest aerial attack on Ukraine since the start of the war

Updated 29 June 2025
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Russia launches biggest aerial attack on Ukraine since the start of the war

KYIV: Russia launched its biggest aerial attack against Ukraine overnight, a Ukrainian official said Sunday, part of an escalating bombing campaign that has further dashed hopes for a breakthrough in efforts to end the 3-year-old war.
Russia fired a total of 537 aerial weapons at Ukraine, including 477 drones and decoys and 60 missiles, Ukraine’s air force said. Of these, 249 were shot down and 226 were lost, likely having been electronically jammed.
Yuriy Ihnat, head of communications for Ukraine’s air force, told the Associated Press that the overnight onslaught was “the most massive air strike,” on the country, taking into account both drones and various types of missiles. The attack targeted regions across Ukraine, including western Ukraine, far from the frontline.
Poland and allied countries scrambled aircraft to ensure the safety of Polish airspace, the Polish air force said Sunday.
Kherson regional Gov. Oleksandr Prokudin said one person died in a drone strike. Six people were wounded in Cherkasy, including a child, according to regional Gov. Ihor Taburets.
The war shows no signs of abating as US-led international peace efforts have so far produced no breakthrough. Two recent rounds of talks between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Istanbul were brief and yielded no progress on reaching a settlement.


Three killed, over a dozen hospitalized as crowd surges at eastern India Hindu festival

Updated 29 June 2025
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Three killed, over a dozen hospitalized as crowd surges at eastern India Hindu festival

  • Autopsies are planned for the deceased to determine the exact cause of death
  • Coastal temple town of Puri comes alive each year with the grand ‘Rath Yatra’

NEW DELHI: Three people were killed and more than a dozen hospitalized Sunday following a sudden crowd surge at a popular Hindu festival in eastern India, a senior government official said.

“There was a sudden crowd surge of devotees for having a glimpse of the Hindu deities during which few people either fainted, felt suffocated or complained of breathlessness,” said Siddharth Shankar Swain, the top government official in Puri.

Swain said that 15 people were rushed to a local government hospital, where three people were pronounced dead and the other 12 were discharged. Autopsies are planned for the deceased to determine the exact cause of death.

Tens of thousands of devotees gathered in the coastal town early Sunday at Shree Gundicha Temple near the famous Jagannatha Temple to catch a glimpse of the deities onboard three chariots, Swain said.

The coastal temple town of Puri comes alive each year with the grand “Rath Yatra,” or chariot festival, in one of the world’s oldest and largest religious processions. The centuries-old festival involves Hindu deities being taken out of the temple and driven in colorfully decorated chariots.

The festival is one of Hinduism’s most revered events and draws hundreds of thousands of devotees annually from across India and the world.