Nuclear war is a genuine threat, so why have non-proliferation efforts stalled?

Experts believe the risk of nuclear war is closer than ever, with the infamous Doomsday Clock — a prediction on when mushroom clouds will rise over the world’s cities — being set to 100 seconds to midnight. (AFP)
Short Url
Updated 11 January 2022
Follow

Nuclear war is a genuine threat, so why have non-proliferation efforts stalled?

  • The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons committed states to reduce their arsenals with the goal of eliminating them
  • The P5 group of nations released a joint statement on Jan. 3 affirming  “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought”

NEW YORK CITY: Although the world is understandably preoccupied with the coronavirus pandemic, climate change, and regional conflicts, it would be wrong to assume that the threat of nuclear war had vanished. In fact, the probability of nuclear annihilation remains perilously high.

At the beginning of the year, the pandemic claimed yet another casualty — the 10th Review Conference of the parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which had been scheduled to take place on Jan. 4.

The postponement of the meeting until August went largely unreported at the time because, it would appear, the perceived threat posed by nuclear weapons had lost its urgency in recent decades.

However, the development came as tensions escalated between Western countries and Russia over Ukraine as well as between the US and China over Taiwan.

The non-proliferation treaty, or NPT, which forms the foundation of the non-proliferation regime, was signed in 1968 and came into force in 1970. It is the single most important instrument that the 191 states-parties have to prevent further proliferation and lead the world toward total disarmament.

The bargain that underpins the NPT is very simple: The nuclear states under the treaty commit to reduce their nuclear arsenals with the ultimate goal of eliminating them, and the non-nuclear states adhere to their commitments enshrined in the treaty to not acquire nuclear weapons.

Not everyone has adhered to this. India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea are not signatories, while Iran, although an NPT signatory, is nevertheless enriching uranium and is locked in a battle with the West over its nuclear program.

It is the second time the 10th RevCon has been rescheduled due to the pandemic. The 2020 conference, which would have coincided with the NPT’s 50th anniversary, was also delayed, scuttling hopes of getting the non-proliferation regime back on track and breathing new life into the arms control and disarmament process.




Iran, although an NPT signatory, is nevertheless enriching uranium and is locked in a battle with the West over its nuclear program. (AFP/File Photo)

The three pillars of the NPT — non-proliferation, disarmament, and the peaceful use of nuclear technologies — have seen varying degrees of success.

While the non-nuclear states kept their end of the bargain and adhered to the treaty, bar a couple of exceptions, the nuclear states have been less faithful. They have not fulfilled their obligations, as stipulated by article six of the NPT, to rid the world of nuclear weapons. This has led to tensions and placed a strain on the whole non-proliferation regime.

Looking for an alternative, the non-nuclear states pushed for a process in the UN General Assembly, which culminated in the adoption of a Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons on July 7, 2017, coming into force on Jan. 22, 2021.

However, the conference’s postponement could not have come at a worse time, as anxiety over the fraying of the architecture of arms control is mounting.

Experts believe the risk of nuclear war is greater than ever. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has set its Doomsday Clock at 100 seconds to midnight — the closest the timepiece has been to symbolic doom in its more than 70 years of its existence.

FASTFACTS

* With 191 signatories, the NPT is the world’s most widely ratified nuclear arms control agreement.

* The NPT Review Conference was supposed to start on Jan. 4 at the UN HQ.

* Review conferences, to take stock of compliance and commit to further steps, are supposed to happen every 5 years.

* The postponed 10th Review Conference was initially scheduled to start in April 2020.

A speech by former US Senator Sam Nunn, an authority on nuclear weapons, on the 50th anniversary of the NPT in 2020 described the danger in stark terms.

“We are moving into an era of enhanced nuclear risk,” he said, as a result of the “stalled progress on North Korea, the uncertain future of the Iran agreement and their nuclear program, the continued failure to bring the Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty into force, and the understandable frustration by the non-nuclear states about the slow pace of nuclear disarmament.”

Today, even as the pandemic rages, nuclear states have continued to modernize and upgrade their arsenals. According to the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, the world’s nine nuclear states spent $72.6 billion on modernizing their arsenals in 2020 — up $1.4 billion on 2019 spending. In doing so, many of these states have violated the NPT.

The Stockholm International Peace Institute has estimated that the world’s nuclear states collectively possessed approximately 13,080 nuclear weapons as of January 2021. That figure represented a small decrease on the 13,400 estimate of 2020.

However, this has been offset by the increase in the number of nuclear weapons deployed with operational forces, from 3,720 in 2020 to 3,825 in 2021. Of these, around 2,000 were “kept in a state of high operational alert,” the institute said in its 2021 report.

All of this has occurred in the absence of a credible arms control process because of growing tensions between the US and Russia over Ukraine, and America and China over Taiwan, Hong Kong, and the Indo-Pacific.

Although they were disappointed by the conference postponement, the non-nuclear states were heartened on Jan. 3 when the US, Russia, China, France, and the UK, a group of powers known as the P5, put out a joint statement claiming they “consider the avoidance of war between nuclear-weapon states and the reduction of strategic risks as our foremost responsibilities.

“We affirm that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought. As nuclear use would have far-reaching consequences, we also affirm that nuclear weapons — for as long as they continue to exist — should serve defensive purposes, deter aggression, and prevent war. We believe strongly that the further spread of such weapons must be prevented.”




More than one million people gathered on Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang 11 January 2003, to hear political leaders hail North Korea's dramatic decision to withdraw from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT). (AFP/File Photo)

They also committed to “maintain and further strengthen our national measures to prevent unauthorized or unintended use of nuclear weapons.”

Perhaps most importantly, they reaffirmed their commitment “to our Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty obligations, including our Article VI obligations to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control.”

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, said he was “encouraged” by the commitments voiced by the nuclear states “to pursue measures to prevent nuclear war,” with the added caveat that “the only way to eliminate all nuclear risks is to eliminate all nuclear weapons.”

Non-proliferation groups and experts also applauded the joint statement, but want to see the nuclear powers take genuine, concrete action.




US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton speaks at the UN 2010 High-level Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons at its New York headquarters in 2010. (AFP/File Photo)

From the standpoint of Arab countries, there was also an important element missing from the joint statement, which failed to mention the 1995 NPT resolution introduced by the US, the UK, and Russia agreeing in support of the principle of a Middle East region free from all weapons of mass destruction.

It had been hoped that the 10th RevCon would provide an opportunity to acknowledge the progress made in this regard. The first Conference on the Establishment of a Middle East Zone Free of Nuclear Weapons and Other Weapons of Mass Destruction took place at the UN headquarters in New York in 2019, chaired by Jordan, and again in 2021, chaired by Kuwait.

Israel, the only state in the Middle East thought to possess nuclear weapons, did not attend any of the sessions, nor did the US, despite being one of the main sponsors of the 1995 resolution.

Supporters of arms control therefore have little choice but to wait until August to see whether the P5 will back up their words with action and deliver a “meaningful outcome” that will preserve the integrity of the NPT.


37 months in prison for ex-CIA analyst Asif Rahman who leaked docs on Israeli strike

Updated 5 sec ago
Follow

37 months in prison for ex-CIA analyst Asif Rahman who leaked docs on Israeli strike

  • Rahman worked for CIA since 2016, held top secret security clearance
  • Rahman was arrested by the FBI in Cambodia in November last year

WASHINGTON: A former CIA analyst who leaked top secret US intelligence documents about Israeli military plans for a retaliatory strike on Iran was sentenced to 37 months in prison this week, the Justice Department said.

Asif Rahman, 34, who worked for the Central Intelligence Agency since 2016 and held a top secret security clearance, was arrested by the FBI in Cambodia in November last year.

In January, Rahman pleaded guilty at a federal courthouse in Virginia to two counts of willful retention and transmission of national defense information.

He faced a potential sentence of up to 20 years in prison.

Iran unleashed a wave of close to 200 ballistic missiles on Israel on October 1 in retaliation for the killings of senior figures in the Tehran-backed Hamas and Hezbollah militant groups.

Israel responded with a wave of strikes on military targets in Iran in late October.

According to a court filing, on October 17 Rahman printed out two top secret documents “regarding a United States foreign ally and its planned kinetic actions against a foreign adversary.”

He photographed the documents and used a computer program to edit the images in “an attempt to conceal their source and delete his activity,” it said.

Rahman then transmitted the documents to “multiple individuals he knew were not entitled to receive them” before shredding them at work.

The documents, circulated on the Telegram app by an account called Middle East Spectator, described Israeli preparations for a possible strike on Iran but did not identify any actual targets.

According to The Washington Post, the documents, generated by the US National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, described aviation exercises and movements of munitions at an Israeli airfield.

The leak led Israeli officials to delay their retaliatory strike.


One passenger reportedly survived India plane crash

Updated 13 min 58 sec ago
Follow

One passenger reportedly survived India plane crash

  • Indian media widely reported the survivor Vishwash Kumar Ramesh had been sitting in seat 11A
  • BBC spoke to his cousin in the city of Leicester, Ajay Valgi, who reported that Ramesh had called his family to say he was “fine”

AHMEDABAD: The miracle report of a lone survivor from a London-bound passenger plane that crashed Thursday in the Indian city of Ahmedabad with 242 on board offered a glimmer of hope.

Indian rescue teams with sniffer dogs clawed through smoldering wreckage through the night searching for clues for what had caused the Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner bound for London’s Gatwick Airport to explode in a blazing fireball soon after takeoff from the western city of Ahmedabad.

Bodies from Air India’s flight 171 were lifted out of the torn fuselage, as well as being pulled out of the charred buildings of the medical staff hostel that the airplane smashed into, killing several there too.

The death toll currently stands at 260, police said.

But hours after police said that there “appears to be no survivor in the crash,” officials reported the initially seemingly impossible account that one man had walked out alive.

“One survivor is confirmed,” Dhananjay Dwivedi, principal secretary of Gujarat state’s health department, told AFP.

The person was being treated in hospital, he added without further details.

India’s Home Minister Amit Shah, who visited the crash site and then the hospital, said he was “pained beyond words by the tragic plane crash” in Ahmedabad, the main city in Gujarat state, where Shah is a lawmaker.

But he also told reporters he had heard the “good news of the survivor” and was speaking to them “after meeting him.”

Indian media widely reported the survivor had been sitting in seat 11A, after videos shared on social media showed a man — in a bloodied t-shirt and limping, but walking toward an ambulance.

He shared a boarding card that named him as Vishwash Kumar Ramesh, a 40-year-old British national, one of 53 UK citizens on board.

AFP was not able to confirm the reports, but the BBC spoke to his cousin in the city of Leicester, Ajay Valgi, who reported that Ramesh had called his family to say he was “fine.”

Britain’s Press Association news agency also spoke to his brother, Nayan Kumar Ramesh, 27, also in Leicester.

“He said, I have no idea how I exited the plane,” his brother told PA.

But while Ramesh’s reported survival offered a chance of hope, stories also flooded in of heartbreaking loss: elderly parents going to visit children in Britain, or family returning home.

Air India is organizing relief flights — one from the capital New Delhi and another from financial hub Mumbai — to Ahmedabad for “the next of kin of passengers and Air India staff,” the information ministry said in a statement.

They will have to take part in the grim task of identifying the bodies, many of which were reported to have been badly burned.

The plane, which was full of fuel as it took off for a long-haul flight to London, exploded into a burst of orange flame, videos of the crash showed.

Dwivedi, the health official, said DNA collection facilities had been set up at BJ Medical College in Ahmedabad.

“DNA testing arrangements have been made,” he told reporters.

“Families and close relatives of the flight passengers, especially their parents and children, are requested to submit their samples at the location so that the victims can be identified at the earliest.”


Air India crash adds to Boeing’s recent troubles

Updated 12 June 2025
Follow

Air India crash adds to Boeing’s recent troubles

  • Air India tragedy is first fatal crash since the Dreamliner went into service in 2009
  • Cause of accident still unknown but comes after series of setbacks for the manufacturer

The crash of a Boeing 787 passenger jet in India minutes after takeoff on Thursday is putting the spotlight back on a beleaguered manufacturer though it was not immediately clear why the plane crashed.
The Air India 787 went down in the northwestern city of Ahmedabad with more than 240 people aboard shortly after takeoff, authorities said. It was the first fatal crash since the plane, also known as the Dreamliner, went into service in 2009, according to the Aviation Safety Network database. Boeing shares fell more than 5 percent in pre-market trading.
The 787 was the first airliner to make extensive use of lithium ion batteries, which are lighter, recharge faster and can hold more energy than other types of batteries. In 2013 the 787 fleet was temporarily grounded because of overheating of its lithium-ion batteries, which in some cases sparked fires.
737 Max
The Max version of Boeing’s best-selling 737 airplane has been the source of persistent troubles for Boeing after two of the jets crashed. The crashes, one in Indonesia in 2018 and another in Ethiopia in 2019, killed 346.
The problem stemmed from a sensor providing faulty readings that pushed the nose down, leaving pilots unable to regain control. After the second crash, Max jets were grounded worldwide until the company redesigned the system.
Last month, the Justice Department reached a deal to allow Boeing to avoid criminal prosecution for allegedly misleading US regulators about the Max before the two crashes.
Worries about the plane flared up again after a door plug blew off a Max operated by Alaska Airlines, leading regulators to cap Boeing’s production at 38 jets per month.
Financial woes
Boeing posted a loss of $11.8 billion in 2024, bringing its total losses since 2019 to more than $35 billion.
The company’s financial problems were compounded by a strike by machinists who assemble the airplanes plane at its factories in Renton and Everett, Washington, which halted production at those facilities and hampered Boeing’s delivery capability.
For the first three months of 2025, Boeing reported a narrower loss of $31 million compared with the previous year. CEO Kelly Ortberg said Boeing made progress on stabilizing operations during the quarter.
Orders and deliveries
The stepped-up government scrutiny and the workers’ strike resulted in Boeing’s aircraft deliveries sliding last year.
Boeing said it supplied 348 jetliners in 2024, which was a third fewer than the 528 that it reported for the previous year.
The company delivered less than half the number of commercial aircraft to customers than its main rival Airbus, which reported delivering 766 commercial jets in 2023.
Still, Boeing’s troubles haven’t turned off airline customers from buying its jets. Last month the company secured big orders from two Middle Eastern customers. The deals included a $96 billion order for 787 and 777X jets from Qatar, which it said was the biggest order for 787s and wide body jets in the company’s.


Air India crash leaves UK’s Indian community ‘deeply shocked’

Updated 12 June 2025
Follow

Air India crash leaves UK’s Indian community ‘deeply shocked’

  • MP who campaigned to open direct flights between Ahmedabad, London praises Gujarati community
  • Former PM Rishi Sunak, who recently watched IPL final in the city, sends prayers to families of victims

LONDON: The Indian community in the UK has been left in deep shock after an Air India airplane bound for London Gatwick crashed in Ahmedabad on Thursday.

The Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner carrying 242 people burst into flames when it hit buildings in Gujarat state’s largest city shortly after takeoff.

Among those on board were 53 British passengers and 169 Indian nationals, many of whom would have been on their way to visit relatives in the UK.

The former British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said he and his wife Akshata Murty were “deeply shocked and distressed” by the tragedy.

Sunak and Murty were in Ahmedabad earlier this month to watch the Indian Premier League cricket final at the Narendra Modi Stadium.

Sunak said on X: “There is a unique bond between our two nations and our thoughts and prayers go out to the British and Indian families who have lost loved ones today.” 

The High Commission of India in London said it was “deeply saddened by the tragic crash,” and that “thoughts and prayers are with all those affected by this devastating incident.”

It urged those affected to follow official updates from India’s civil aviation ministry and added that High Commission staff would assist the next of kin of the victims in the UK.

With the UK and India’s deep historic, political and trade ties, the Indian community in the UK is thought to number around 1.8 million. At least 600,000 are part of the diaspora from Gujarat, the state where the Air India plane crashed.

MP Bob Blackman, whose constituency of Harrow East is home to one of the largest Gujarati communities in the UK, said almost all the Indian nationals on board would have been on their way to visit relatives in Britain.

“The community is shocked by what’s happened,” he told BBC radio. “A third of my constituents come from Gujarat originally, and they will all have family and friends there. It’s a very close community and so they’ll all be affected by this.”

Blackman had campaigned to get direct flights set up between Ahmedabad and the UK.

The route was among the promises made by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi — who is from Gujarat — during a visit to the UK in 2015. Air India finally opened the route to Gatwick in 2023.

Blackman said: “It’s taken a long time to get these flights underway and that’s also what makes it even more of a tragedy: that one of these should crash and so many people have unfortunately lost their lives as a result.”

The MP praised the Gujarati community in the UK, saying that wherever they go throughout the world they bring improvements to education and the economy.

He added: “They’re hard-working people who look after their families and make sure everyone is protected, so when something like this happens it's a tragedy that’s felt by the whole community.”

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer described the scenes of the crash in Ahmedabad as “devastating.”

He added: “My thoughts are with the passengers and their families at this deeply distressing time.”

King Charles III said he was “desperately shocked” by the tragedy.

“Our special prayers and deepest possible sympathy are with the families and friends of all those affected by this appallingly tragic incident across so many nations, as they await news of their loved ones,” he said.

The crash comes a month after the UK and India signed a trade deal in the latest boost to their historic economic ties.

The accident stunned the business community operating between the two countries.

The UK India Business Council said it was deeply saddened by the crash.

“Our thoughts are with the victims, their families, and all those affected by this tragedy,” it said. 

The UK branch of the Friends of India Society International said: “Our heartfelt condolences go out to the families and loved ones of those on board.”


Student who stabbed Labour MP in east London in 2010 to be freed from prison, says Parole Board

Updated 12 June 2025
Follow

Student who stabbed Labour MP in east London in 2010 to be freed from prison, says Parole Board

  • Roshonara Choudhry was 21 when sentenced to a minimum of 15 years for stabbing Stephen Timms twice in the stomach
  • Choudhry, now 36, participated in programs to understand her extreme beliefs, behavior was ‘exemplary,’ says panel

LONDON: A student who attempted to murder Labour MP Stephen Timms in May 2010 can be released from prison following a Parole Board decision.

Roshonara Choudhry was 21 when she was sentenced to a minimum of 15 years for stabbing Timms twice in the stomach, and was also charged with two counts of possessing an offensive weapon.

Choudhry, a former King’s College London student, was radicalized after watching lectures by an Al-Qaeda cleric, and her attack was believed to have been the first Al-Qaeda-inspired attempt to assassinate a politician on British soil.

Choudhry attacked the East Ham MP, the minister of state for social security and disability in the current UK government, while he held a constituency surgery at the Beckton Globe community center in east London. Following her arrest, she told police the stabbing was “punishment” and “to get revenge for the people of Iraq.”

During a Parole Board hearing on May 20, a panel decided to release her from prison. It added that her imprisonment “was no longer necessary for the protection of the public.”

Choudhry, now 36, participated in programs while in prison to understand her extreme beliefs, and her behavior was described by the panel as “exemplary.”

It added: “Ms Choudhry was assessed as having shown a very high level of insight and understanding of herself.

“She would no longer be likely to be influenced by other people with strong negative views, having developed the ability to critically evaluate information and to seek help from professionals if she needs it.”

The panel recommended Choudhry’s release on license, with conditions to live at a designated address, follow a curfew, and avoid contact with Timms.