Nuclear war is a genuine threat, so why have non-proliferation efforts stalled?

Experts believe the risk of nuclear war is closer than ever, with the infamous Doomsday Clock — a prediction on when mushroom clouds will rise over the world’s cities — being set to 100 seconds to midnight. (AFP)
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Updated 11 January 2022
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Nuclear war is a genuine threat, so why have non-proliferation efforts stalled?

  • The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons committed states to reduce their arsenals with the goal of eliminating them
  • The P5 group of nations released a joint statement on Jan. 3 affirming  “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought”

NEW YORK CITY: Although the world is understandably preoccupied with the coronavirus pandemic, climate change, and regional conflicts, it would be wrong to assume that the threat of nuclear war had vanished. In fact, the probability of nuclear annihilation remains perilously high.

At the beginning of the year, the pandemic claimed yet another casualty — the 10th Review Conference of the parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which had been scheduled to take place on Jan. 4.

The postponement of the meeting until August went largely unreported at the time because, it would appear, the perceived threat posed by nuclear weapons had lost its urgency in recent decades.

However, the development came as tensions escalated between Western countries and Russia over Ukraine as well as between the US and China over Taiwan.

The non-proliferation treaty, or NPT, which forms the foundation of the non-proliferation regime, was signed in 1968 and came into force in 1970. It is the single most important instrument that the 191 states-parties have to prevent further proliferation and lead the world toward total disarmament.

The bargain that underpins the NPT is very simple: The nuclear states under the treaty commit to reduce their nuclear arsenals with the ultimate goal of eliminating them, and the non-nuclear states adhere to their commitments enshrined in the treaty to not acquire nuclear weapons.

Not everyone has adhered to this. India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea are not signatories, while Iran, although an NPT signatory, is nevertheless enriching uranium and is locked in a battle with the West over its nuclear program.

It is the second time the 10th RevCon has been rescheduled due to the pandemic. The 2020 conference, which would have coincided with the NPT’s 50th anniversary, was also delayed, scuttling hopes of getting the non-proliferation regime back on track and breathing new life into the arms control and disarmament process.




Iran, although an NPT signatory, is nevertheless enriching uranium and is locked in a battle with the West over its nuclear program. (AFP/File Photo)

The three pillars of the NPT — non-proliferation, disarmament, and the peaceful use of nuclear technologies — have seen varying degrees of success.

While the non-nuclear states kept their end of the bargain and adhered to the treaty, bar a couple of exceptions, the nuclear states have been less faithful. They have not fulfilled their obligations, as stipulated by article six of the NPT, to rid the world of nuclear weapons. This has led to tensions and placed a strain on the whole non-proliferation regime.

Looking for an alternative, the non-nuclear states pushed for a process in the UN General Assembly, which culminated in the adoption of a Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons on July 7, 2017, coming into force on Jan. 22, 2021.

However, the conference’s postponement could not have come at a worse time, as anxiety over the fraying of the architecture of arms control is mounting.

Experts believe the risk of nuclear war is greater than ever. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has set its Doomsday Clock at 100 seconds to midnight — the closest the timepiece has been to symbolic doom in its more than 70 years of its existence.

FASTFACTS

* With 191 signatories, the NPT is the world’s most widely ratified nuclear arms control agreement.

* The NPT Review Conference was supposed to start on Jan. 4 at the UN HQ.

* Review conferences, to take stock of compliance and commit to further steps, are supposed to happen every 5 years.

* The postponed 10th Review Conference was initially scheduled to start in April 2020.

A speech by former US Senator Sam Nunn, an authority on nuclear weapons, on the 50th anniversary of the NPT in 2020 described the danger in stark terms.

“We are moving into an era of enhanced nuclear risk,” he said, as a result of the “stalled progress on North Korea, the uncertain future of the Iran agreement and their nuclear program, the continued failure to bring the Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty into force, and the understandable frustration by the non-nuclear states about the slow pace of nuclear disarmament.”

Today, even as the pandemic rages, nuclear states have continued to modernize and upgrade their arsenals. According to the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, the world’s nine nuclear states spent $72.6 billion on modernizing their arsenals in 2020 — up $1.4 billion on 2019 spending. In doing so, many of these states have violated the NPT.

The Stockholm International Peace Institute has estimated that the world’s nuclear states collectively possessed approximately 13,080 nuclear weapons as of January 2021. That figure represented a small decrease on the 13,400 estimate of 2020.

However, this has been offset by the increase in the number of nuclear weapons deployed with operational forces, from 3,720 in 2020 to 3,825 in 2021. Of these, around 2,000 were “kept in a state of high operational alert,” the institute said in its 2021 report.

All of this has occurred in the absence of a credible arms control process because of growing tensions between the US and Russia over Ukraine, and America and China over Taiwan, Hong Kong, and the Indo-Pacific.

Although they were disappointed by the conference postponement, the non-nuclear states were heartened on Jan. 3 when the US, Russia, China, France, and the UK, a group of powers known as the P5, put out a joint statement claiming they “consider the avoidance of war between nuclear-weapon states and the reduction of strategic risks as our foremost responsibilities.

“We affirm that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought. As nuclear use would have far-reaching consequences, we also affirm that nuclear weapons — for as long as they continue to exist — should serve defensive purposes, deter aggression, and prevent war. We believe strongly that the further spread of such weapons must be prevented.”




More than one million people gathered on Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang 11 January 2003, to hear political leaders hail North Korea's dramatic decision to withdraw from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT). (AFP/File Photo)

They also committed to “maintain and further strengthen our national measures to prevent unauthorized or unintended use of nuclear weapons.”

Perhaps most importantly, they reaffirmed their commitment “to our Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty obligations, including our Article VI obligations to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control.”

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, said he was “encouraged” by the commitments voiced by the nuclear states “to pursue measures to prevent nuclear war,” with the added caveat that “the only way to eliminate all nuclear risks is to eliminate all nuclear weapons.”

Non-proliferation groups and experts also applauded the joint statement, but want to see the nuclear powers take genuine, concrete action.




US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton speaks at the UN 2010 High-level Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons at its New York headquarters in 2010. (AFP/File Photo)

From the standpoint of Arab countries, there was also an important element missing from the joint statement, which failed to mention the 1995 NPT resolution introduced by the US, the UK, and Russia agreeing in support of the principle of a Middle East region free from all weapons of mass destruction.

It had been hoped that the 10th RevCon would provide an opportunity to acknowledge the progress made in this regard. The first Conference on the Establishment of a Middle East Zone Free of Nuclear Weapons and Other Weapons of Mass Destruction took place at the UN headquarters in New York in 2019, chaired by Jordan, and again in 2021, chaired by Kuwait.

Israel, the only state in the Middle East thought to possess nuclear weapons, did not attend any of the sessions, nor did the US, despite being one of the main sponsors of the 1995 resolution.

Supporters of arms control therefore have little choice but to wait until August to see whether the P5 will back up their words with action and deliver a “meaningful outcome” that will preserve the integrity of the NPT.


Bangladesh opens trial of deposed ex-Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina

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Bangladesh opens trial of deposed ex-Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina

  • The investigators brought charges of crimes against humanity against Hasina over killing of hundreds of students in a mass uprising last year
  • Hasina has been in exile in India since Aug. 5, 2023, while former Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan is missing and possibly also is in India

DHAKA: A special tribunal set up to try Bangladesh’s ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina began proceedings Sunday by accepting the charges of crimes against humanity filed against her in connection with a mass uprising in which hundreds of students were killed last year.

The Dhaka-based International Crimes Tribunal directed investigators to produce Hasina, a former home minister and a former police chief before the court on June 16.

Hasina has been in exile in India since Aug. 5, 2023, while former Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan is missing and possibly also is in India. Former police chief Chowdhury Abdullah Al Mamun has been arrested. Bangladesh sent a formal request to India to extradite Hasina in December.

State-run Bangladesh Television broadcast the court proceedings live.

In an investigation report submitted on May 12, the tribunal’s investigators brought five allegations of crimes against humanity against Hasina and the two others during the mass uprising in July-August last year.

According to the charges, Hasina was directly responsible for ordering all state forces, her Awami League party and its associates to carry out actions that led to mass killings, injuries, targeted violence against women and children, the incineration of bodies and denial of medical treatment to the wounded.

Three days after Hasina’s ouster, Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus took over as the nation’s interim leader.

In February, the UN human rights office estimated that up to 1,400 people may have been killed in Bangladesh over three weeks in the crackdown on the student-led protests against Hasina, who ruled the country for 15 years.

The tribunal was established by Hasina in 2009 to investigate and try crimes involving Bangladesh’s independence war in 1971. The tribunal under Hasina tried politicians, mostly from the Jamaat-e-Islami party, for their actions during the nine-month war against Pakistan. Aided by India, Bangladesh gained independence from Pakistan under the leadership of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, Hasina’s father and the country’s first leader.


Macron condemns ‘unacceptable’ violence during football celebrations

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Macron condemns ‘unacceptable’ violence during football celebrations

  • Two people died and police made nearly 600 arrests across France overnight as football fans celebrated PSG’s 5-0 triumph over Inter Milan in Munich
  • Macron hosted Coach Luis Enrique and his team after their victory parade on the famed Champs Elysee

PARIS: French President Emmanuel Macron on Sunday condemned the “unacceptable” violence during celebrations following Paris Saint-Germain’s Champions League final victory, as he welcomed the triumphant team to the Elysee palace.
“Nothing can justify what has happened in the last few hours, the violent clashes are unacceptable,” the French leader said.
“We will pursue, we will punish, we will be relentless,” he added before congratulating the players on their win.
Two people died and police made nearly 600 arrests across France overnight as football fans celebrated PSG’s 5-0 triumph over Inter Milan in Munich.
“The violent clashes that took place are unacceptable and have come at a heavy cost: two people are dead, around 30 police officers and several firefighters have been injured,” Macron said.
“My thoughts are also with the police officer in Coutances who is currently in a coma,” he added.
Macron hosted Coach Luis Enrique and his team after their victory parade on the famed Champs Elysee, thanking the players for their quick condemnation of the previous night’s chaos.
“These isolated acts are contrary to the club’s values and in no way represent the vast majority of our supporters, whose exemplary behavior throughout the season deserves to be commended,” the club said on Sunday.


British FM says Morocco’s autonomy plan for W. Sahara ‘most credible’ solution

Updated 12 min 6 sec ago
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British FM says Morocco’s autonomy plan for W. Sahara ‘most credible’ solution

  • Britain previously backed self-determination for the disputed Western Sahara, which Morocco claims as an integral part of its kingdom
  • Spain and Germany now officially back the Moroccan autonomy plan, while France last summer recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over the territory

RABAT: British Foreign Minister David Lammy said on Sunday that Morocco’s autonomy plan for the territory of Western Sahara was the “most credible” solution to the decades-long dispute, reversing London’s long-standing position.
Western Sahara, a mineral-rich former Spanish colony, is largely controlled by Morocco but has been claimed in its entirety for decades by the pro-independence Polisario Front, which is backed by Algeria.
Morocco has been campaigning for broad support for its autonomy plan after obtaining US recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over the disputed territory in 2020, in exchange for the normalization of diplomatic relations with Israel.
“The United Kingdom considers Morocco’s autonomy proposal submitted in 2007 as the most credible, viable and pragmatic basis for a lasting resolution of the dispute,” Lammy told reporters in Rabat.
Britain previously backed self-determination for the disputed territory, which Morocco claims as an integral part of its kingdom.

The United Kingdom considers Morocco’s autonomy proposal submitted in 2007 as the most credible, viable and pragmatic basis for a lasting resolution of the dispute

UK Foreign Minister David Lammy

Moroccan foreign minister Nasser Bourita welcomed the shift, saying the new British position contributed “greatly to advancing this momentum and promoting the UN path toward a definitive and mutually acceptable solution based on the autonomy initiative.”
Rabat’s push for support for its autonomy plan has seen success.
Spain and Germany now officially back the Moroccan autonomy plan, while France last summer recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over the territory.
“This year is a vital window of opportunity to secure a resolution before we reach 50 years of the dispute in November,” said Lammy.
The foreign minister also said it encouraged “relevant parties to engage urgently and positively with the United Nations-led political process.”
The United Nations considers Western Sahara a “non-self-governing territory” and has had a peacekeeping mission there since 1991, whose stated aim is to organize a referendum on the territory’s future.
But Rabat has repeatedly ruled out any vote where independence is an option, instead proposing an autonomy plan.
The ceasefire collapsed in mid-November 2020 after Moroccan troops were deployed to the far south of the territory to remove separatists blocking the only route to Mauritania — a route they claimed was illegal, as it did not exist in 1991.
The UN Security Council is calling for negotiations without preconditions, while Morocco insists they focus solely on its autonomy plan.
“The only viable and durable solution will be one that is mutually acceptable to the relevant parties and is arrived at through compromise,” added Lammy.
In a joint statement, the United Kingdom noted that its export credit agency, UK Export Finance, may consider supporting projects in the Sahara as part of its commitment to mobilize 5 billion British pounds (approximately 5.9 billion euros) for new economic initiatives in Morocco.


Bangladesh opens trial of ex-PM Hasina for crimes against humanity

Updated 01 June 2025
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Bangladesh opens trial of ex-PM Hasina for crimes against humanity

  • Hearing broadcast live for first in special tribunal’s history
  • Former home minister, ex-police chief ordered to be in court for second hearing on June 16

DHAKA: Bangladeshi prosecutors on Sunday opened the trial of fugitive former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who is charged with orchestrating last year’s deadly crackdown on student-led protests.

Peaceful demonstrations, triggered by the reinstatement of a quota system for the allocation of civil service positions, began in early July 2024 but two weeks later they were met with a communications blackout and a violent crackdown by security forces.

In early August, as protesters defied a nationwide curfew, Hasina resigned and fled the country, ending 15 years in power of her Awami League party-led government.

“She unleashed various law enforcement and intelligence agencies against them (the protesting students) … They slaughtered the agitating students, injured them and committed crimes against humanity,” Mohammad Tajul Islam, chief prosecutor at Bangladesh’s domestic International Crimes Tribunal, told the court in his opening speech.

He charged the 77-year-old with “incitement, aiding and abetting, involvement in the commission of the crimes of murder, attempted murder, torture and other inhumane acts as part of the widespread and systematic attacks on innocent unarmed students and the public.”

The UN’s human rights office concluded in February that between July 15 and Aug. 5, 2024, the former government and its security and intelligence apparatus, together with “violent elements” linked to the Awami League, “engaged systematically in serious human rights violations and abuses in a coordinated effort to suppress the protest movement.”

It estimated that at least 1,400 people were killed during the protests, the majority by bullets from military rifles.

ICT investigators have collected video footage, audio clips, records of helicopter and drone movements, as well as statements from victims of the crackdown as part of the probe.

They also “seized records of telephonic conversations of Sheikh Hasina, in which she repeatedly confirmed that she ordered all the state agencies to eliminate innocent civilians peacefully protesting for a fair demand, using helicopters, drones and APCs (armored personnel carriers),” Islam said.

Sunday’s hearing was broadcast live for the first in the ICT’s history.

“The court accepted the charges against Sheikh Hasina, former Home Affairs Minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal and former police chief Chowdhury Abdullah Al-Mamun. There are five charges against them and the court accepted all five charges. We presented the charges through live broadcast before the nation,” Islam told reporters after the hearing.

Al-Mamun is the only accused who has been detained while the ex-home minister is in hiding and Hasina remains in self-imposed exile in neighboring India.

The next hearing is scheduled to take place on June 16. The tribunal ordered all three accused to be presented before the court.

The International Crimes Tribunal was established by Hasina in 2010 to investigate crimes committed by the Pakistani army and its loyalists during Bangladesh’s independence war in 1971.

Over the years, it grew to be widely seen as the Hasina government’s tool for eliminating political rivals.


Zelensky says Ukraine will send a delegation to Istanbul for talks with Russia on Monday

Updated 01 June 2025
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Zelensky says Ukraine will send a delegation to Istanbul for talks with Russia on Monday

  • In a statement on Telegram, Zelensky said that Defense Minister Rustem Umerov will lead the Ukrainian delegation, stating "we are doing everything to protect our independence, our state and our people”

KYIV: Ukraine will send a delegation to Istanbul for a new round of direct peace talks with Russia on Monday, President Volodymyr Zelensky said, even as Russia pounded Ukraine with a missile strike that killed 12 soldiers and the biggest drone assault of the three-year war.
In a statement on Telegram, Zelensky said Sunday that Defense Minister Rustem Umerov will lead the Ukrainian delegation. “We are doing everything to protect our independence, our state and our people,” Zelensky said.
Ukrainian officials had previously called on the Kremlin to provide a promised memorandum setting out its position on ending the war before the meeting takes place. Moscow had said it would share its memorandum during the talks.
Russian strike hits an army unit
Russia launched the biggest number of drones on Ukraine since the full-scale invasion three years ago, Ukraine’s air force said Sunday. The air force said 472 drones were launched over Ukraine.
Russian forces also launched seven missiles alongside the barrage of drones, said Yuriy Ignat, head of communications for the Ukrainian air force. Earlier Sunday, Ukraine’s army said at least 12 Ukrainian service members were killed and more than 60 were injured in a Russian missile strike on an army training unit.
The strike occurred at 12:50 p.m. (0950 GMT), the statement said, emphasizing that no formations or mass gatherings of personnel were being held at the time. An investigative commission was created to uncover the circumstances around the attack that led to such a loss in personnel, the statement said.
The training unit is located to the rear of the 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) active front line, where Russian reconnaissance and strike drones are able to strike.
Ukraine’s forces suffer from manpower shortages and take extra precautions to avoid mass gatherings as the skies across the front line are saturated with Russian drones looking for targets.
“If it is established that the actions or inaction of officials led to the death or injury of servicemen, those responsible will be held strictly accountable,” the Ukrainian Ground Forces’ statement said.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone strikes were reported deep in Russian territory Sunday, including in the Siberian region of Irkutsk, more than 4,500 kilometers (2,800 miles) east of Moscow.
It is the first time that a Ukrainian drone has been seen in the region, local Gov. Igor Kobzeva said, stressing that it did not present a threat to civilians.
Other drone strikes were also reported in Russia’s Ryazan region and the Arctic Murmansk region. No casualties were reported.
Northern pressure
Russia’s Ministry of Defense said Sunday that it had taken control of the village of Oleksiivka in Ukraine’s northern Sumy region. Ukrainian authorities in Sumy ordered mandatory evacuations in 11 more settlements Saturday as Russian forces make steady gains in the area.
Speaking Saturday, Ukraine’s top army chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said that Russian forces were focusing their main offensive efforts on Pokrovsk, Toretsk and Lyman in the Donetsk region, as well as the Sumy border area.