KARACHI: Pakistan’s central bank is expected to hold its policy rate today, Monday, a Reuters poll showed, as many analysts shifted their previous view of a cut in the wake of Israel’s military strike on Iran, citing inflation risks from rising global commodity prices.
Israel said on Friday it targeted nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories and military commanders in a “preemptive strike” to prevent Tehran from building an atomic weapon.
Several brokerages had initially expected a cut but revised their forecasts after the Israeli strikes sparked fears of a broader conflict.
The escalating hostilities triggered a sharp spike in oil prices — a worry for Pakistan given the broader impact on imported inflation from a potentially prolonged conflict and tightening of crude supplies.
Eleven of 14 respondents in a snap poll expected the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) to leave the benchmark rate unchanged at 11 percent. Two forecast a 100 basis-point cut and one predicted a 50 bps cut.
“There remains an upside risk of a rise in global commodity prices in light of geopolitical tensions which could mark a return to inflationary pressures,” said Ahmad Mobeen, senior economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
“The resultant higher import bill could also threaten external sector performance and bring pressure to the exchange rate.”
Inflation in the South Asian country has been declining for several months after it soared to around 40 percent in May 2023.
Last month, however, inflation picked up to 3.5 percent, above the finance ministry’s projection of up to 2 percent, partly due to the fading of the year-go base effects. The SBP expects average inflation between 5.5 percent and 7.5 percent for the fiscal year ending June.
The central bank paused its easing cycle in March after cumulative cuts of 1,000 basis points from a record high of 22 percent, and resumed it with a 100-basis-point reduction in May.
The policy meeting follows the release a tight annual budget, which saw Pakistan raise defense spending by 20 percent but overall expenditure was reduced by 7 percent, with GDP growth forecast at 4.2 percent.
Pakistan says its $350 billion economy has stabilized under a $7 billion IMF bailout that had helped it staved a default threat.
Some analysts are skeptical of the government’s ability to reach the growth target amid fiscal and external challenges.
Abdul Azeem, head of research at Al Habib Capital Markets, which forecast a 50-bp cut, said a lower rate could “support the GDP target of 4.2 percent and reduce the debt financing burden.” 

ISLAMABAD: Fauji Fertilizer Company Ltd. (FFC), a unit of the Pakistan army-run Fauji Foundation, said on Monday its board had approved submitting an expression of interest to acquire a stake in loss-making national carrier PIA, according to a filing with the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX).

Islamabad is trying to offload a controlling stake of 51-100 percent in PIA under a $7 billion International Monetary Fund program aimed at overhauling state-owned firms. Authorities last month pushed back the deadline for expressions of interest to June 19. 

“The board … has approved submission of an expression of interest and pre-qualification documents to the Privatization Commission … and undertaking a comprehensive due-diligence exercise,” FFC said in the filing. 

FFC is Pakistan’s biggest fertilizer maker and has diversified interests in energy, food and finance. Any deal on PIA would expand the military group’s footprint into aviation, though final terms will hinge on the government’s privatization process and regulatory approvals.

FFC’s move marks Pakistan’s second attempt to sell PIA. 

A 2024 auction drew only one offer – Rs10 billion ($36 million) for 60 percent of the airline from real-estate developer Blue World City – far below the government’s Rs85 billion ($305 million) floor price and was rejected. 

Pakistan had offloaded nearly 80 percent of the airline’s legacy debt and shifted it to government books ahead of the privatization attempt. The rest of the debt was also cleaned out of the airline’s accounts after the failed sale attempt to make it more attractive to potential buyers, according to the country’s privatization ministry.

In April, PIA posted an operating profit of Rs9.3 billion ($33.1 million) for 2024, its first in 21 years.

The airline has for years survived on government bailouts as its operational earnings were eaten up by debt servicing costs.

Officials say offloading the debt burden and recent reforms like shedding staff, exiting unprofitable routes and other cost-cutting measures led to the profitable year.

Ahead of the attempt to sell the airline last year, PIA had faced threats of being shut down, with planes impounded at international airports over its failure to pay bills and flights canceled due to a shortage of funds to pay for fuel or spare parts.

The state carrier’s 34-plane fleet commands only 23 percent of Pakistan’s domestic market, while Middle Eastern rivals take about 60 percent of overall traffic, thanks to wider route networks and direct connections.