Russia no more the ‘red infidel’

The East-West face off over the Ukrainian crisis seems dark, gloomy and long, like the cruel Russian winter. At the centre stage of the crisis is President Vladimir Putin who lives in the centuries old presidential palace, the Kremlin, from where he announced that he will recognise the two breakaway regions of Ukraine as independent republic states.

That has brought US-led Western powers onto the war chessboard, and they have in retaliation slapped Russia with sanctions to hurt its military efforts.  

Putin is still tossing anger, historical grievances and challenges to America. But in this freezing cold winter in Moscow, he finds some diplomatic comfort in the arrival of Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, amid heightened tensions and fears of isolation over the Ukraine crisis. 

Khan is the first Pakistani prime minister to visit Russia after 23 years, as both countries share a bitter past particularly during the Cold War era. Khan’s arrival coincides with Russia’s military action in the eastern region of Ukraine. Putin’s announcement has met with widespread condemnation from across the world. Khan’s presence in Moscow could be perceived as an indirect Pakistan endorsement of Putin’s actions in Ukraine and so the trip in Moscow faces a dual challenge now-- to not only improve Pakistan’s bilateral ties with Russia, but to also walk on a tightrope of global perceptions while balancing the costs of perceived partisanship.

Pakistan has historically aligned itself with America. Its military establishment and political elite were suspicious of communism and its promised revolutions. Their fears were substantiated when, within a few years of its Independence, senior military officials and prominent community leaders plotted a coup against the first prime minister, Liaquat Ali Khan. They were arrested and imprisoned, including the famous revolutionary poet, Faiz. 

The religious right also militated against communists in Pakistan, equating their secularism with atheism and whipping up public opinion against them. Communists then operated clandestinely and circulated propaganda booklets of the ComIntern, translated books by authors like Gorky and Chekhov and Bertolt Brecht. Pakistan’s progressive writers and thinkers such as Manto and Sajjad Zaheer identified and allied with political movements for communism.

It will be tricky for Pakistan to balance its important economic and strategic relationship with the West alongside deepening ties with Russia.  

Owais Tohid

When the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979, Pakistan again aligned itself with the US under the military dictatorship of General Zia ul Haq. Billions of dollars were routed for training Mujahideen to fight against the Soviets’ ‘Red Army’ forces in Afghanistan, dubbing them ‘Sur Kafirs,” meaning red infidels.

Since then, much has changed. The giant Soviet Union disintegrated, leaving its mothership country, Russia, smaller in size and without ideological aspirations of imposing communism. Putin, who served in the KGB in the Soviet Union, has previously termed its collapse ‘the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century.’ Putin is seen by many as a 21st century czar, trying to bring back his country’s lost glory, the fight over Ukraine being his latest gamble.

By the late 1990’s, Pakistan and Russia tried moving beyond their antagonistic past. The then prime minister Nawaz Sharif visited Moscow, followed by initiatives by the Pakistan military to enhance defence cooperation with Russia. Decades later when Pakistan’s military cracked down on Al Qaeda and foreign militants, it escorted Russian commanders to its tribal belt, to mountains once used as launching pads for Mujahideen against Soviet forces.

Thus the current visit of Prime Minister Imran Khan to Moscow is the outcome continuation of years of diplomatic efforts. But what explains the acceleration of Pakistan-Russia connection efforts? 

In one word: Afghanistan.

By the time the Soviets withdrew, much blood was shed and generations lost. Mikhail Gorbachev called Afghanistan a bleeding wound.

Now, decades later, the US, another superpower has exited Afghanistan. Once more, the country’s been left haemorrhaging. A crisis-ridden Afghanistan is worrisome for both Russia and Pakistan, and will remain high on the agenda during the Putin-Khan meeting.

While ideologies have morphed, geographical realities remain the same. Regional powers like Pakistan, Iran, China and the former Soviets are still fighting economic battles and aiming to expand influence. Afghan instability, and the increasing threat of Daesh at the doorstep of the Central Asian States, challenge Russia’s security. The possibility of terrorism spilling over into the former Soviet republics of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan worries Putin. 

The presence of Uzbek militants of the Uzbekistan Islamic Movement and Uyghur insurgents in Daesh is problematic for Russia and China as both attempt to strengthen their influence. After the US withdrawal, Russia and China both are aware of Pakistan’s significance for any settlement of the Afghan crisis. 

For Pakistan, peace in Afghanistan is a priority to secure the multibillion dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, part of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. Pakistan wants the Taliban and Baloch insurgents operating from Afghanistan to be reined in. 

Pakistan’s fragile economy will compel Khan to ask Russia for investment in oil and energy sectors in addition to agreements related to military and defence. Officials are hopeful Russian companies will express an interest in constructing a gas pipeline around 1100 km long between the port city of Karachi and Punjab, the most populous and wealthy province. 

The US is likely to be displeased about any such proximity with Russia. Pakistan’s bonding with China also worries America. As a signal, President Joe Biden has not attempted any direct contact with Pakistan’s civil and military leadership since coming into power. 

“The timing of Khan’s trip certainly won’t be a boon for US-Pakistan relations, and it won’t be a good look in the eyes of Biden. Like many world leaders, Biden may view the Khan visit as an indirect endorsement of Putin’s recent actions (vis a vis Ukraine),” says leading expert Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Centre, a US based think tank. 

“It does amplify the geopolitical constraints to expanded US-Pakistan partnership in the future. Washington would much prefer that Islamabad not be engaging with Putin.” 

India and the US both are watching closely for signs of an emerging triangle of China, Russia and Pakistan. 

It will be tricky for Pakistan to balance its important economic and strategic relationship with the West alongside deepening ties with Russia.  

Pakistan’s economic interests with the US, and European countries are worth over $12 billion. The country’s economy meanwhile is cash strapped, burdened with IMF loans and seeks removal from the grey list of FATF.

In the changing world, PM Khan meets President Putin amid a global crisis. Both the leaders are facing challenges.  Can Putin outsmart the western world on the war chessboard?  As for Khan, a rescue from the economic crisis and the quagmire of Afghanistan is the key to success. 

*Owais Tohid has reported extensively on war and conflict in Asia for 30 years and witnessed the rise and fall of the Taliban in Afghanistan. He has also covered the Palestinian conflict in the Occupied Territories and worked for the BBC World Service, AFP and CS Monitor. Twitter: @OwaisTohid