PARIS: The stuttering progress of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has thrown an unwanted spotlight on the Russian intelligence services, who observers say failed to prepare the Kremlin for the realities of the assault.
Several reports have suggested that a shadowy section of Russia’s powerful Federal Security Agency (FSB) has come under particular scrutiny with its leader interrogated and reportedly even under house arrest.
This has led several commentators to question if all is well at the ominous headquarters of the FSB on Lubyanka Square in Moscow, once the home of the KGB in the USSR.
Observers believe Russia had expected to make far more rapid progress in the invasion after it was launched on February 24, with forces that were welcomed rather than face fierce resistance from Ukrainians.
“People did not make clear to (President Vladimir) Putin the reality of the situation,” said a French intelligence source, who asked not to be named.
“The system is hardening up, bunkering down so that Putin does not receive too much bad news,” added the source.
In a report first carried by Latvia-based Russian news site Meduza, Russian intelligence experts Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan wrote that the first consequences of the espionage failings were now being felt.
The head of the so called 5th Service of the FSB, Sergei Beseda, and his deputy, Anatoly Bolukh, had both been placed under house arrest in an investigation, the report said.
The 5th Service is a hugely powerful branch of the FSB which oversees its operations outside Russia, notably in ex-Soviet states such as Ukraine.
It is distinct from Russia’s specialist Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), headed by the longstanding Kremlin insider Sergei Naryshkin.
The head of Russia’s national guard Viktor Zolotov was quoted by Russian news agencies this weekend as saying that the invasion was “not going as fast as we would like” but claimed this was in a bid to avoid civilian casualties.
France-based Russian dissident Vladimir Osechkin, who runs the gulagu-net.ru site which has exposed abuses in Russian jails, also reported the house arrests which he said were officially part of an investigation on the embezzlement of funds earmarked for Ukraine.
“But the real reason was the inadequate intelligence and incomplete and false information on the political situation in Ukraine,” he said.
Osechkin’s site has meanwhile also been publishing a series of letters from a purported whistleblower called “Wind of Change” claiming a climate of fear at the FSB due to its failure to warn of the resistance to the Russian invasion.
“Putin is likely carrying out an internal purge of general officers and intelligence personnel,” the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said.
“He may be doing so either to save face after failing to consider their assessments in his own pre-invasion decision-making or in retaliation for faulty intelligence he may believe they provided him.”
FSB Dosye, an investigative site that specializes in the work of the FSB, said Monday that the reports of a full scale purge were exaggerated. Beseda had indeed been interrogated by investigators but was still in his job and not under arrest.
Bolukh had also been interrogated but had for some years no longer been the number two of the 5th Service, it said.
Beseda, according to FSB Dosye and other reports, was present in Ukraine in 2104 in a bid to assist then president Viktor Yanukovych face down a pro-Western uprising. The leader eventually fled to Russia.
The senior FSB operative was targeted by EU sanctions in July 2014 after the annexation of Crimea and outbreak of fighting in the east of Ukraine with pro-Moscow separatists.
The sanctions order says Sergei Orestovich Beseda, born in 1954, “heads a service which oversees intelligence operations and international activity.”
Questions also lurk over the the role of the SVR after its chief Naryshkin was subjected to a bizarre humiliation by Putin on television on the eve of the invasion.
Western sources say it appears incontestable that the strength of Ukrainian resistance and the unwillingness of local populations to welcome Russia took Moscow by surprise.
“Before such an operation, you should start by looking at the state of the population, in what situation you are going to operate,” said a high-ranking French official, asking not to be named.
“There was a very poor analysis of the state of the morale of the Ukrainian and Ukraine as a whole,” added the source.
Russian spies in spotlight over Ukraine shortcomings
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Russian spies in spotlight over Ukraine shortcomings
- The head of the so called 5th Service of the FSB, Sergei Beseda, and his deputy, Anatoly Bolukh, had both been placed under house arrest in an investigation: Report
- French official: ‘There was a very poor analysis of the state of the morale of the Ukrainian and Ukraine as a whole’
Pakistan militant raid kills 16 soldiers: intelligence officials
- Pakistani Taliban claim responsibility for the attack, saying in a statement it was staged ‘in retaliation for the martyrdom of our senior commanders’
“Over 30 militants attacked an army post” in the Makeen area of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, one senior intelligence official said on condition of anonymity. “Sixteen soldiers were martyred and five were critically injured in the assault.”
“The militants set fire to the wireless communication equipment, documents and other items present at the checkpoint,” he said, before retreating from the two-hour assault which took place 40 kilometers (24 miles) from the Afghan border.
A second intelligence official also anonymously confirmed the same toll of dead and wounded.
The Pakistani Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack, saying in a statement it was staged “in retaliation for the martyrdom of our senior commanders.”
Myanmar ethnic rebels say captured junta western command
- Ann would be the second regional military command to fall to ethnic rebels in five months
- Fighting has rocked Rakhine state since the Arakan Army attacked security forces in November last year
BANGKOK: A Myanmar ethnic rebel group has captured a military regional command in Rakhine state, it said, in what would be a major blow to the junta.
The Arakan Army (AA) had “completely captured” the western regional command at Ann on Friday after weeks of fighting, the group said in a statement on its Telegram channel.
Ann would be the second regional military command to fall to ethnic rebels in five months, and a huge blow to the military.
Myanmar’s military has 14 regional commands across the country with many of them currently fighting established ethnic rebel groups or newer “People’s Defense Forces” that have sprung up to battle the military’s 2021 coup.
Fighting has rocked Rakhine state since the AA attacked security forces in November last year, ending a ceasefire that had largely held since the putsch.
AA fighters have seized swathes of territory in the state that is home to China and India-backed port projects and all but cut off state capital Sittwe.
The AA posted photos of a man whom it said was the Ann deputy regional commander, in the custody of its fighters.
AFP was unable to confirm that information and has contacted the AA’s spokesman for comment.
AFP was unable to reach people on the ground around Ann where Internet and phone services are patchy.
In decades of on-off fighting since independence from Britain in 1948 the military had never lost a regional military command until last August, when the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) captured the northeastern command in Lashio in Shan state.
Myanmar’s borderlands are home to myriad ethnic armed groups who have battled the military since independence for autonomy and control of lucrative resources.
Last month the UN warned Rakhine state was heading toward famine, as ongoing clashes squeeze commerce and agricultural production.
“Rakhine’s economy has stopped functioning,” the report from the UN Development Programme said, projecting “famine conditions by mid-2025” if current levels of food insecurity were left unaddressed.
Joe Biden approves $571 million in defense support for Taiwan
- The US is bound by law to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself despite the lack of formal diplomatic ties between Washington and Taipei
- Taiwan went on alert last week in response to what it said was China’s largest massing of naval forces in three decades
WASHINGTON: US President Joe Biden on Friday agreed to provide $571.3 million in defense support for Taiwan, the White House said, while the State Department approved the potential sale to the island of $265 million worth of military equipment.
The United States is bound by law to provide Chinese-claimed Taiwan with the means to defend itself despite the lack of formal diplomatic ties between Washington and Taipei, to the constant anger of Beijing.
Democratically governed Taiwan rejects China’s claims of sovereignty.
China has stepped up military pressure against Taiwan, including daily military activities near the island and two rounds of war games this year.
Taiwan went on alert last week in response to what it said was China’s largest massing of naval forces in three decades around Taiwan and in the East and South China Seas.
Biden had delegated to the secretary of state the authority “to direct the drawdown of up to $571.3 million in defense articles and services of the Department of Defense, and military education and training, to provide assistance to Taiwan,” the White House said in a statement without providing details.
Taiwan’s defense ministry thanked the United States for its “firm security guarantee,” saying in a statement the two sides would continue to work closely on security issues to ensure peace in the Taiwan Strait.
The Pentagon said the State Department had approved the potential sale to Taiwan of about $265 million worth of command, control, communications, and computer modernization equipment.
Taiwan’s defense ministry said the equipment sale would help upgrade its command-and-control systems.
Taiwan’s defense ministry also said on Saturday that the US government had approved $30 million of parts for 76 mm autocannon, which it said would boost the island’s capacity to counter China’s “grey-zone” warfare.
US Senate approves Social Security change despite fiscal concerns
- The Senate in a 76-20 bipartisan vote shortly after midnight approved the Social Security Fairness Act
- The House of Representatives last month approved the bill in a 327-75 vote
WASHINGTON: The US Congress early on Saturday passed a measure to boost Social Security retirement payments to some retirees who draw public pensions — such as former police and firefighters — which critics warned will further weaken the program’s finances.
The Senate in a 76-20 bipartisan vote shortly after midnight approved the Social Security Fairness Act, which would repeal two-decades-old provisions that can reduce benefits for people who also receive a pension.
The House of Representatives last month approved the bill in a 327-75 vote, which means that Senate approval sends it to Democratic President Joe Biden to sign into law. The White House did not immediately respond to a question about whether Biden intended to do so.
The bill will overturn a decades-old change to the program that had been made to limit federal benefits to some higher-earning workers with pensions. Over time, growing numbers of municipal employees such as firefighters and postal workers also saw their payments capped.
Most Americans do not participate in pension plans, which pay a defined benefit, and instead are dependent on what money they can save and Social Security. Just one in ten US private sector workers have pension plans, according to Labor Department data.
The new provisions impact about 3 percent of Social Security beneficiaries — totaling a little more than 2.5 million Americans — and the workers and retirees affected by these provisions are key constituencies for lawmakers and their powerful advocacy groups have pushed for a legislative fix.
Some of them could receive hundreds of dollars more a month in federal benefits as a result of the bill, retirement experts said.
Some federal budget experts warned the change could hurt the program’s already shaky finances as the bill’s price tag is approximately $196 billion over the next decade, according to an analysis by the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office.
Emerson Sprick, associate director of economic policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, said in an interview, “the fact that there is such overwhelming support in Congress for exactly the opposite of what policy researchers agree on is pretty frustrating.”
Instead of scrapping the current formulas for determining retirement benefits for these workers, revisions have been floated, as well as more accurate communication from the Social Security Administration on how much money these public sector employees should expect.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan fiscal think tank, is also warning the extra cost will affect the program’s future.
“We are racing to our own fiscal demise,” the group’s president, Maya MacGuineas, said in a statement.
“It is truly astonishing that at a time when we are just nine years away from the trust fund for the nation’s largest program being completely exhausted, lawmakers are about to consider speeding that up by six months.”
Republican Senator Ted Cruz on the Senate floor on Wednesday said the bill as written will “throw granny over the cliff.”
“Every senator who votes to impose $200 billion dollars of cost on the Social Security Trust Fund, you are choosing to sacrifice the interest of seniors who paid into Social Security and who earned those benefits,” he said.
Bill supporters said Social Security’s future can be addressed at a later time.
Asked about the solvency implications pf this legislation, Senator Michael Bennet, a supporter of the bill, said: “Those are much longer term issues that we have to find a way to address together.”
US authorizes military sales of more than $5 billion to Egypt
- Cairo is one of the largest recipients of US security aid since its peace treaty with Israel in 1979
Washington: The United States government on Friday authorized the sale of more than $5 billion in military equipment to Egypt, which has become an increasingly close partner in mediating the Gaza crisis despite serious human rights concerns.
The State Department informed Congress it had approved the sale of $4.69 billion in equipment for 555 US-made M1A1 Abrams tanks operated by Egypt, $630 million in 2,183 Hellfire air-to-surface missiles and $30 million in precision-guided munitions.
The sale “will support the foreign policy and national security of the United States by helping to improve the security of a Major Non-NATO Ally country that continues to be an important strategic partner in the Middle East,” according to a statement.
US President Joe Biden took office in 2021 vowing a harder line on Egypt over human rights concerns under President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, but his administration has repeatedly gone ahead with arms deals with Egypt.
Cairo is one of the largest recipients of US security aid since its peace treaty with Israel in 1979.
Egypt and the United States have worked increasingly closely since the outbreak of the war in Gaza in 2023, with Cairo playing a mediating role.
In addition to the sales to Egypt, the State Department also authorized $295 million in equipment for Taiwan, $170 million in bombs and missiles for Morocco, and $130 million in uncrewed aircraft systems and armored vehicles to Greece.
The Taiwan authorizations were announced shortly after US President Joe Biden announced $571.3 million in new military aid to the self-ruled island, which China claims as part of its territory and has vowed to retake — by force, if necessary.
The US Congress can still block the sales, but such attempts are usually unsuccessful.
