Global economy on the brink of recession, economists warn: Macro Snapshot

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Updated 21 March 2022
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Global economy on the brink of recession, economists warn: Macro Snapshot

RIYADH: While the world is experiencing a current tightening cycle, economists warn that 13 of the past 16 tightening cycles resulted in recessions. 

Different countries across the world are experiencing different economic issues caused either due to higher oil prices or supply chain disruptions due to COVID-19 and the ongoing Russian-Ukraine conflict.

The Egyptian pound dropped nearly 14 percent, Ghana’s central bank announced the biggest interest rate hike in a generation, and the Canadian dollar strengthened to its highest level in nearly two months against the greenback.

Recession 

Thirteen of the past sixteen tightening cycles resulted in recessions, and we’re in one, the independent macroeconomic research group Capital Economics said in its most recent publication.

According to Capital Economics, meetings of the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank showed that plans to tighten policy have not changed.

It predicts that the focus on regulating inflation and second-round impacts on wages and prices may end up tipping the economy into recession.

Since the late 1970s, the US, the UK and the later formed European Central Bank have collectively gone through 16 tightening cycles in total, “13 of which have ended in recession.”

Capital Economics explains the most probable reason behind why tightening cycles are followed by recession in current times; that is “that central banks allow inflation to spiral out of control — and then have to tighten policy aggressively, and drive the economy into recession, in order to bring it back down.”

“The question is whether their actions will create a recession anyway?“

The war’s impact on an already pandemic stricken economy shows that “the path for a soft landing is narrow.”

Egyptian pound devaluation 

Egyptian pound drops nearly 14 percent after Ukraine war prompts dollar flight.

Egypt’s pound depreciated by almost 14 percent on Monday after weeks of pressure on the currency as foreign investors pulled out billions of dollars from Egyptian treasury markets following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The pound dropped to 18.17-18.27 against the dollar, Refinitiv data showed, after having traded at around 15.7 pounds to the dollar since November 2020.

The central bank also hiked overnight interest rates by 100 basis points in a surprise monetary policy meeting.

Egypt has been in discussions with the International Monetary Fund about possible assistance, people close to the negotiations have said, but it has not announced any formal request.

“This is a good move to make as the devaluation of the pound moves it roughly in line with its fair value and it could pave the way for a new IMF deal,” said James Swanston of Capital Economics.

“However, it will be key whether policymakers now allow the pound to float more freely or continue to manage it and allow external imbalances to build up once more, possibly resulting in future step devaluations like today’s in the future.”

Monday’s weakening of the pound could catalyze inflows of foreign currency, while investors who already had money in Egyptian treasuries would be unlikely to sell now, said Farouk Soussa, a senior economist at Goldman Sachs.

Ghana interest rate

Ghana’s central bank announced the biggest interest rate hike in a generation on Monday as it seeks to slow rampant inflation that threatens to create a debt crisis in one of West Africa’s largest economies.

The Bank of Ghana raised its main lending rate by 250 basis points to 17 percent, signaling an aggressive stance against the rocketing price of goods from flour to sugar to fuel, and against a depreciating local currency that has dented investor confidence.

It is the biggest hike in at least 20 years, according to government records, more than double the 100-basis-point rise predicted by a Reuters poll of 10 economists last week. 

Canadian dollar

The Canadian dollar strengthened to its highest level in nearly two months against its US counterpart on Monday, as oil prices climbed and speculators raised bullish bets on the currency.

The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, jumped as EU nations considered joining the US in a Russian oil embargo and after a weekend attack on Saudi oil facilities.

US crude prices were up 4.5 percent at $109.38 a barrel, while the Canadian dollar  edged 0.1 percent higher to 1.2590 per greenback, or 79.43 US cents. It touched its strongest intraday level since Jan. 26 at 1.2580.

Net long positions in the loonie increased to 17,740 contracts as of March 15 from 7,646 in the prior week, data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.

Meanwhile, Canadian Pacific Railway, Canada’s second-largest railroad, has shut down operations and locked out workers over a labor dispute, in a move that will likely disrupt shipments of key commodities at a time of soaring prices.

Canadian government bond yields were higher across a steeper curve, tracking the move in US Treasuries. The 10-year rate touched its highest level since December 2018 at 2.281 percent before dipping to 2.267 percent, up 7.4 basis points on the day.

Canada said it plans to issue its inaugural Canadian dollar-denominated green bond this week.

 

(With input from Reuters)


Yemen and Iraq lead call for more crisis finance

Updated 16 November 2024
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Yemen and Iraq lead call for more crisis finance

BAKU: A group of conflict-affected countries led by Iraq and Yemen is pushing at the COP29 climate talks to double financial aid to more than $20 billion a year to combat the natural disaster and security crises they face.
States mired in conflict or its aftermath have struggled to access private investment, because they are seen as too risky. That means UN funds are even more critical to their people, many of whom have been displaced by war and weather.
In response, the COP29 Azerbaijan presidency on Friday launched launch a new “Network of Climate-vulnerable Countries,” including Iraq, Yemen, Burundi, Chad, Sierra Leone, Somalia and Timor-Leste. They all belong to the g7+, an intergovernmental group of fragile countries that first sent the appeal.
The network aims to advocate as a group with climate finance institutions, build capacity in member states so they can absorb more finance, and create country platforms so investors can more easily find high-impact projects in which to invest, said think tank ODI Global, which helped the countries create the network.
“My hope is it will create a real platform for the countries in need,” said Abdullahi Khalif, chief climate negotiator for Somalia.


Half of UK businesses impacted by Middle East conflict

Updated 15 November 2024
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Half of UK businesses impacted by Middle East conflict

  • British Chambers of Commerce survey shows companies faced increased costs, shipping disruption

LONDON: Half of British businesses say they have been affected by the conflict in the Middle East, according to a survey from the British Chambers of Commerce.

The findings show that on top of the devastating human impact of the fighting in Gaza and Lebanon, the economic repercussions are being felt around the world.

Houthi militants in Yemen began attacking shipping in the Red Sea shortly after the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks sparked Israel’s war on Gaza.

The militants claim they are targeting ships linked to Israel and its allies in solidarity with Palestinians. The result has been a huge reduction in traffic through one of the world’s busiest maritime trade routes.

The BCC said shipping container rates have risen sharply since the conflict began. The cost of shipping a 40-ft (12-meter) container from Shanghai to Rotterdam has risen from just over $1,000 at the start of the conflict to just under $4,000 now. Prices peaked at more than $8,000 in July.

Most shipping companies operating between Asia and Europe have opted to send vessels around the longer Cape Horn route rather than through the Red Sea and Suez Canal.

In the survey of about 650 businesses published this week by the BCC’s Insights Unit, UK firms said the conflict had led to increased costs, shipping disruption and delays, and uncertainty over oil prices. 

Half of those asked said the conflict had affected them, compared to just over a quarter in a similar survey in October 2023. This suggests more businesses worldwide have been affected by the fighting the longer it has gone on.

William Bain, the BCC’s head of trade policy, said: “Alongside the grim human impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the situation continues to have economic reverberations around the world.

“The effect on businesses here in the UK has continued to ratchet up the longer the fighting has continued.

“If the current situation persists, then it becomes more likely that the cost pressures will build further.”

Economists have warned that while the effects on the global economy have so far been largely limited to shipping costs and delays, further escalation could have a much wider impact.

The biggest concern would be a disruption to oil and gas supplies that would lead to a surge in global energy prices, fueling inflation.


COP29 unveils Baku Call initiative to bridge climate finance and peace for vulnerable communities

Updated 15 November 2024
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COP29 unveils Baku Call initiative to bridge climate finance and peace for vulnerable communities

  • Elshad Iskandarov highlighted the 450 million people who live in regions simultaneously impacted by conflict and climate vulnerability

BAKU: The world’s most vulnerable communities stand at the heart of the newly launched “Baku Call on Climate Action for Peace, Relief, and Recovery,” unveiled on Friday at COP29. 

The initiative addresses the urgent need to tackle the interconnected challenges of climate change, conflict and humanitarian crises. 

Backed by key nations from both the Global North and South — including Egypt, Italy, Germany, Uganda, the UAE and the UK — it introduces the Baku Climate and Peace Action Hub as a platform for driving peace-sensitive climate actions and unlocking vital financial support for affected regions.

Speaking to Arab News, Ambassador Elshad Iskandarov of the COP29 Presidency articulated the stakes clearly, pointing to the 450 million people who live in regions simultaneously impacted by conflict and climate vulnerability. 

 

“These compounded crises not only strain existing resources but also hinder the effective delivery of climate finance,” he said. 

The Baku Call seeks to address this by providing a centralized mechanism to coordinate efforts across stakeholders — governments, UN agencies, think tanks and peace-building organizations. “The hub will serve as a unified entry point for vulnerable nations, ensuring streamlined access to climate finance and technical support,” he said.

The initiative builds on established frameworks such as COP27’s Climate Responses for Sustaining Peace and COP28’s Declaration on Climate, Relief, Recovery, and Peace, while adding practical innovations. 

Iskandarov highlighted a digital portal in development that will provide a clear overview of existing climate finance mechanisms, application requirements and best practices. 

“Imagine a country facing daily challenges of conflict, development and climate impact. Without proper guidance, navigating six to nine funding channels becomes nearly impossible,” he said. The portal aims to close this gap by strengthening national capacities and offering tools to access and manage climate funding effectively.

A central focus of the initiative lies in developing pilot projects tailored to conflict-affected areas, where conventional funding approaches often fall short. “In regions with strong non-state violent actors, we must ensure that funds reach the communities in need without falling into the wrong hands,” Iskandarov said. 

To achieve this, the hub will facilitate close collaboration with UN agencies and local communities, designing projects that integrate peacebuilding goals and adhere to stringent oversight standards.

Partnerships have been instrumental in shaping the initiative. The ambassador commended the co-lead nations for their shared commitment to inclusivity and cooperation, noting how countries such as the UAE, Egypt and the UK brought their experiences as prior COP hosts to strengthen the effort.

“This is not about initiative nationalism,” he said. “We’ve drawn lessons from the pandemic, where global unity was key, and applied them to forge a collaborative approach to the climate and peace nexus.”

The Baku Call also seeks to shift the broader narrative around climate and peace. Iskandarov expressed a long-term vision where this intersection is no longer synonymous with crisis and destruction but instead embodies hope and development. “Our ultimate goal is to create a future where the nexus of climate and peace signifies resilience and harmony, not despair,” he said.


Gulf’s record FDI inflows growing the pie for all, says Bahrain’s economic strategy chief

Updated 15 November 2024
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Gulf’s record FDI inflows growing the pie for all, says Bahrain’s economic strategy chief

MANAMA: Gulf countries’ success in attracting foreign investments is a win-win for the region, a senior business strategy expert has told Arab News.

In an interview on the second day of the Bahrain International Airshow, Nada Al-Saeed, chief of strategy at the Bahrain Economic Development Board, described the Middle East’s growing ability to attract funding as “fantastic,” noting that it brings greater attention to the region.

In 2023, Saudi Arabia secured foreign direct investment inflows of SR96 billion ($25.6 billion), 16 percent higher than its target amount, while Bahrain received a record $1.7 billion over the same period, marking an 55 percent annual increase.

“When Saudi Arabia or the UAE does very well, it means that we could also benefit from that. I think that we often see the region as very competitive. I like to see it as a very collaborative and I think that everybody could benefit. If the pie gets larger, each individual’s share will also get larger.” she said. 

Reflecting on Bahrain’s FDI increase, Al-Saeed said that figure relates to the Economic Development Board’s achievements.

“If we are looking at the foreign direct investments’ statistics and results, we will see Bahrain actually attracted a much larger number than that, but this represents a record number for the EDB,” she said.

Nada Al-Saeed, chief of strategy at the Bahrain Economic Development Board. Supplied

Al-Saeed noted that funding secured in 2023 went to investment projects across all of Bahrain’s priority sectors, which include financial services, communication and technology, and manufacturing, as well as logistics and tourism,

“These are the key priority non-oil sectors identified by the government, and they are the focus of the EDB. The board has dedicated teams for each sector to promote and attract investments in these areas,” she said.

She also said that these projects have contributed to job creation in the country, and she expected this investment trend to continue.

Explaining how her organization’s strategy aligns with the country’s economic vision for 2030, Al-Saeed said that the EDB, as the nation’s investment promotion agency, works very closely with a wider ecosystem of stakeholders known as “Team Bahrain.” 

This group has tailored its investment promotion strategies to mirror the government’s national economic plans.

“Back in October 2021, the government launched the economic recovery plan where it identified key priority sectors, and the EDB aligned to that in order to ensure that we operate as a cohesive unit, and we are able to attract the right investments that will further stimulate the development and growth of our country,” the chief officer said.

Discussing the unique advantages Bahrain offers, Al-Saeed highlighted the country’s success over the past decades in attracting regional investors that now play a vital role in the nation’s economy.

“If we look at our foreign direct investment statistics, we will see the majority of our foreign investments come from the GCC region, and that is predominantly in the financial services sector, and this is a trend that we have seen since the 70s, where Bahrain managed to attract a lot of regional capital in the financial services sector from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, and others, of course.” she said.

“There are many advantages because we treat GCC investors like Bahrainis when it comes to the processes of establishing business activities,” Al-Saeed added.

In addition, Bahrain has a wide range of incentives that are offered to investors.

One of these is the work of the country's labor fund, Tamkeen, which offers businesses the opportunity to support hiring local talent, as well as training and upskilling them to meet the needs of those companies.

Al-Saeed highlighted recent regulatory changes aimed at making Bahrain more attractive to global businesses and startups, and emphasized that significant efforts have been made to ensure the state remains both competitive and conducive to investments and business growth.

“Maybe one of the key, or most recent initiatives that is worth highlighting, is the Golden License program that was launched back in April 2023, which aims to provide streamlined services to strategic investment projects that are valued at $50 million or that creates 500 jobs here in Bahrain,” she said.

The chief officer added that through this initiative, projects and companies can benefit from expedited services when it comes to getting approvals, licenses or even access to decision makers. 

“This has been very instrumental in terms of ensuring that we provide high-class services to investors,” said Al-Saeed, noting that nine projects have been granted Golden License status since the initiative was launched.

She further said that the total of those projects is valued at $2.4 billion, with investors coming from various sectors and different regional and global countries, including Bahrain.

In response to a question about the role of the aviation sector in the EDB’s investment strategy,  Al-Saeed stated that it helps create a conducive investment environment, as it is what connects Bahrain with the rest of the world.

“This is not just in terms of the movement of people but also in transporting goods and service through air cargo. So, it is very important; as we do not target just the market that is within our geographic boundaries, but we aim to serve a much wider area and catchment area,” she said.


Saudi Arabia’s demand for apartments pushes new mortgages over $16bn

Updated 15 November 2024
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Saudi Arabia’s demand for apartments pushes new mortgages over $16bn

RIYADH: Banks in Saudi Arabia granted SR60.92 billion ($16.24 billion) in residential mortgages in the first nine months of 2024, an annual rise of 4.88 percent.

The data was released by the Saudi Central Bank, also known as SAMA, and it showed the bulk of the loans — constituting 64 percent or SR38.85 billion — was allocated for house purchases.

This segment did witness a 3.38 percent dip year on year, with its proportion of total loans shrinking from the 69 percent seen during the same period of 2023.

Demand for apartments surged, capturing 31 percent of total mortgages, up from 25 percent a year ago, as this category of lending reached SR18.6 billion.

This shift represents a 26.8 percent growth, underscoring the increasing preference for apartment ownership amid urbanization and demographic changes.

Additionally, loans for land purchases showed a promising trajectory, achieving an annual growth rate of 8.26 percent and amounting to SR3.5 billion, which signals a sustained interest in land investment across the Kingdom.

The rise in new residential bank loans across Saudi Arabia is being driven by a blend of population growth, evolving mortgage policies, and increasing interest in apartment living.

According to a recent report from online real estate platform Sakan, the Kingdom’s population surged by four million over the past five years, with demand for housing climbing in response.

While this trend fuels the broader housing market, apartments have become a prominent focus, reflecting changing demographics and affordability needs.

The growth of the expatriate population, which expanded from 9.9 million in 2010 to 13.4 million in 2022 and now makes up over 40 percent of the population, also adds pressure on the rental market, particularly in major cities.

The government’s push for greater home ownership through buyer-friendly mortgage policies is helping fuel this apartment demand. 

Favorable mortgage options and the recent introduction of the Premium Residency Visa, often dubbed the “Saudi Green Card,” allow foreign investors to enter the market with purchases over SR4 million, fostering interest in upscale residential investments.

Additionally, the value proposition of apartments is clear, as with SR1 million, buyers can access apartment sizes that vary by city — for instance, around 131 sq. meters in North Riyadh to a more spacious 333 sq. meters in Dammam, according to the report.

Saudi Arabia’s liberalized foreign ownership policies and affordable mortgage terms further boost demand, particularly for apartments in desirable areas.

The high rental yields offered by apartments in Saudi Arabia also attract investors, with two- and three-bedroom apartments in Riyadh delivering yields of 9 to 10 percent, and even higher returns in Jeddah, where a two-bedroom unit yields 11.7 percent.

These returns are notably higher than apartment yields in neighboring Gulf cities, where they average between 5 to 6 percent in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha.

High rental yields not only make apartments attractive as long-term investments but also help offset rising property costs, driving both end-users and investors to favor this category in a market characterized by shifting residential preferences.

According to the report, the surge is also driven by the rapid evolution of real estate technology.

Platforms like Sakan are reshaping the real estate landscape by enhancing transparency, streamlining property transactions, and providing data-driven insights for buyers and investors alike.

Leveraging local knowledge and international expertise, these platforms are supporting the sector’s growth by simplifying access to property listings, improving market transparency, and facilitating faster transaction times.

As property technology continues to integrate into the Saudi market, it is poised to play a pivotal role in sustaining the momentum of residential lending and meeting the needs of a tech-savvy, expanding population.