KARACHI: An international credit rating agency on Thursday termed the ongoing no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Imran Khan as “credit negative” for the country, saying it was casting doubt on policy continuity in Pakistan while creating an overall environment of uncertainty.
Pakistan’s opposition parties tabled a no-trust resolution against the prime minister on Monday, accusing his administration of mismanaging economy and failing to provide good governance.
As the opposition claimed the government had lost its parliamentary majority, Moody’s, a credit rating corporation, raised concern over the economic ramifications of the prevailing political situation.
“We view the no-confidence motion as credit negative because it raises significant uncertainty over policy continuity, as well as the government’s ability to continue to implement reforms to increase productivity growth and secure external financing, including from the International Monetary Fund (IMF),” it said in a statement.
The no-trust motion comes at a time when Pakistan is encumbered with surging inflation and widening current account deficit amid rising global commodity prices. A further deterioration in its external position, including an erosion of foreign exchange reserves, would threaten the government’s external repayment capacity and heighten liquidity risks, according to Moody’s.
Pakistan has faced significant pressure on its foreign exchange reserves in recent months, amid elevated global commodity prices and a recovery in domestic demand. The Russia-Ukraine military conflict, which has driven up global commodity prices, has also amplified pressure on the country’s external position. Pakistan is a net oil importer, with petroleum and related products accounting for about 20 percent of its total imports.
Its current account deficit amounted to more than $12 billion between July 2021 and February 2022, a stark contrast to a $1 billion surplus in the same period a year before.
“We now expect the deficit to widen to 5-6 percent of GDP in fiscal 2022 compared with our previous forecast of 4 percent,” Moody’s statement said.
The further widening of the current account deficit would put greater pressure on Pakistan’s foreign reserves, which declined to $12 billion as of March 25, 2022, from $18.9 billion in July 2021, according to Moody’s and the State Bank of Pakistan.
Officials of the country’s finance ministry also said the economic situation was moving in the right direction before the no-confidence move, adding the alarm bells of uncertainty were now beginning to ring.
“So far, there was no impact on the economy,” Muzammil Aslam, the ministry’s spokesperson, told Arab News on Thursday. “The foreign investors were confident which was reflected in the Reko Diq gold mine dispute settlement and credit off-take was up.”
“Now it seems the deadlock which is prevailing will make things worse because the IMF is silent and the Chinese rollover [of $2.3 billion] has been agreed, but the payment made to China has not been returned yet which will cause a major dip in the reserves,” he said.
Pakistan’s reserves decreased by $2.915 billion to $12 billion, the country’s central bank said on Thursday. It informed that this decline reflected repayment of external debt, adding the rollover facility provided by China was being processed and was expected shortly.
Pakistan is also undergoing its seventh review under the IMF Extended Fund Facility program, which has disbursed $3 billion out of the stipulated $6 billion. However, discussions between Pakistan and the IMF appear to have stalled since the beginning of March when the global lending agency expressed concerns over the government’s recent relief package in response to rising inflation, according to Moody’s.
Pakistani economists said the current political situation had made local and foreign investors nervous who were waiting for the political dust to settle down.
“The state of uncertainty has been prevailing for almost a month and the government’s focus is on its defense,” Dr. Ashfaque Hassan Khan, senior economist, told Arab News.
Some experts said people who had invested in Pakistani bonds and sukuk were also feeling jittery which was reflected in the huge depreciation of the national currency.
The rupee on Thursday plunged to a new historic low of Rs183.46 against the US dollar in the interbank market.
“The dollar is going up and the oil prices are high,” Khurram Schehzad, senior financial analysts, commented, adding none of this was good for the economy.
However, Miftah Ismail, the country’s former finance minister and member of the opposition Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz party, said things would get better after the formation of the new government.
“We are fully aware of the situation,” he said. “The markets, currency and bond, will settle down once the new setup is formed.”
However, Moody’s said anyone managing Pakistan’s government would find it difficult to balance revenue-raising reforms to secure external financing and political pressure from people facing rising cost of living.
Moody’s calls no-confidence motion ‘credit negative’ for Pakistan as finance ministry says ‘no impact’
https://arab.news/9djn2
Moody’s calls no-confidence motion ‘credit negative’ for Pakistan as finance ministry says ‘no impact’
- Moody's says no-confidence motion raises uncertainty over policy continuity, government’s ability to continue to implement reforms
- Economists say current political situation has made local and foreign investors nervous, awaiting the political dust to settle
Imran Khan party to boycott talks with Pakistan government unless truth commissions announced
- First round of talks aimed at cooling political instability took place on Dec. 23 with follow ups on Jan. 2 and 16
- Pakistani court last week sentenced Khan to 14 years jail in a land corruption case, a setback to nascent talks
ISLAMABAD: Salman Akram Raja, a lawyer and close aide of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, said the jailed leader had told the party not to participate in the next session of ongoing reconciliatory talks with the Pakistan government unless it announced judicial commissions into accusations Khan’s party and supporters had led violent protests.
The first round of talks aimed at cooling political instability in the 241-million South Asian nation took place between Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and the government on Dec. 23, with follow up talks on Jan. 2 and 16.
The PTI party’s demands to the government mainly include the release of all political prisoners including Khan, and the formation of two judicial commissions to probe into the events which led to his arrest in August 2023, and violent protest rallies, including one on May 9, when PTI supporters rampaged through military offices and installations, and a second one on Nov. 26 in which the government says four troops were killed.
A Pakistani court last week sentenced Khan to 14 years imprisonment in a land corruption case, a setback to the nascent talks’ process.
“He [Khan] has said we will not play committee-committee,” Raja told reporters after meeting Khan at the Rawalpindi Adiala prison on Monday.
“Our demands that judicial commissions be formed, if commissions are not announced into the events of May 9 and Nov. 26, then we will not sit in the next round [of talks].”
https://x.com/PTIofficial/status/1881295015470879003
The talks opened last month as Khan had threatened a civil disobedience movement and amid growing concerns he could face trial by a military court for allegedly inciting attacks on sensitive security installations during the May 9 protests.
The negotiations also began two days after 25 civilians were sentenced by a military court to periods of two to 10 years of “rigorous imprisonment” in connection with attacks on military facilities on May 9, 2023. Just days later on Dec. 26, another 60 civilians were sentenced by a military court to jail time ranging from 2 to 10 years in connection with the May 9 attacks.
Khan’s first arrest in May 2023 in the land graft case in which he was sentenced last week sparked countrywide protests that saw his supporters attack and ransack military installations in an unprecedented backlash against Pakistan’s powerful army generals. Although Khan was released days later, he was rearrested in August that year after being convicted in a corruption case. He remains in prison and says all cases against him are politically motivated.
Protests demanding Khan’s release in November also turned violent, with the PTI saying 12 supporters were killed while the state said four troops had died.
Pakistan’s Reko Diq mine to generate $74 billion in free cash flow over 37 years — Barrick CEO
- Bristow says project’s timeline on track, with fencing, accommodation, and surveys already completed
- Saudi mining firm Manara Minerals could invest in Reko Diq in next two quarters, Pakistani petroleum minister has said
KARACHI: The Reko Diq copper and gold project in Pakistan is expected to generate approximately $74 billion in free cash flow over the next 37 years, based on consensus long-term prices, the CEO of joint owner Barrick Gold said in a media interview.
Barrick Gold owns a 50 percent stake in the Reko Diq mine and the governments of Pakistan and the province of Balochistan own the other 50 percent. Barrick considers the mine one of the world’s largest underdeveloped copper-gold areas, and its development is expected to have a significant impact on Pakistan’s struggling economy.
The project, which was delayed due to a long running dispute that ended in 2022, is expected to start production by the end of 2028. It will produce 200,000 tons of copper per year in its first phase, with an estimated cost of $5.5 billion. The first phase is expected to be completed by 2029, Barrick’s CEO Mark Bristow told Pakistani digital media outlet Dawn News English.
A second phase, estimated to cost $3.5 billion, will double production, he added.
The mine is estimated to have reserves lasting 37 years but Bristow said that through upgrades and expansions it could potentially be mined for much longer.
A free cash flow of $74 billion could generate significant dividends, royalties and taxes for Pakistan, which currently has only around $11 billion in foreign reserves.
Barrick is also in talks with railway authorities and infrastructure providers to revamp the coal terminal in Port Qasim, on the outskirts of Pakistan’s port city Karachi, to develop infrastructure to transport copper in the country and for export.
Bristow said the project’s timeline is on track, with fencing, accommodation, and surveys already completed.
Saudi Arabian mining company Manara Minerals could invest in Pakistan’s Reko Diq mine in the next two quarters, Pakistani Petroleum Minister Musadik Malik said last week.
Executives from Manara visited Pakistan in May last year for talks about buying a stake in the project. Pakistan is also in talks with other Gulf countries about mining opportunities, Malik said.
Pakistan hopes for ‘enduring’ partnership with US under new Trump administration
- In recent years, Washington and Islamabad’s ties deteriorated over the latter’s alleged support of the Taliban in their 2021 takeover of Kabul
- Tensions rose further when ex-PM Imran Khan accused Washington of orchestrating his ouster through a parliamentary vote, a charge the US denies
ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has said that he looked forward to working with United States (US) President Donald Trump for an “enduring” Pakistan-US partnership, shortly after the latter was sworn in as the 47th US president.
Pakistan and the US collaborated during the Cold War and in the fight against Al-Qaeda after 9/11, yet their relationship was also tested by divergent priorities on various issues. In recent years, Washington and Islamabad’s ties deteriorated as the former suspected the latter of supporting the Taliban in their 2021 takeover of Kabul, allegations which Islamabad rejected.
Tensions rose further in 2022 when former Pakistan premier Imran Khan accused the Biden administration of orchestrating his ouster via a parliamentary vote, a charge the US denied. Since Khan’s ouster in 2022, Sharif’s government has made frequent efforts to repair the damaged relations.
“Over the years, our two great countries have worked together closely to pursue peace and prosperity in the region and beyond for our peoples & we shall continue to do so in the future,” Sharif said on X, extending his best wishes to Trump for a successful second term in office.
“I look forward to working with him to strengthen the enduring Pakistan-US partnership.”
Differences have also emerged between both countries over Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program. Late last year, US Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer said nuclear-armed Pakistan’s development of long-range ballistic missiles could potentially target the US.
The statement came after the US said it was imposing new sanctions related to Pakistan’s missile program, including on the state-owned defense agency that oversees the program. The Foreign Office in Islamabad said at the time that Pakistan’s strategic capabilities were solely meant to defend its sovereignty, dismissing the US allegations as “devoid of rationality.”
On Monday, Shafqat Ali Khan, a Pakistani Foreign Office spokesperson, said Pakistan sought to “solidify” its relations with the US, which were marked by multi-layered cooperation in economy, trade, people-to-people connections, security and counter-terrorism.
“Pakistan-US relations have a very long history, and the relations remain rich and dense, and we would continue to work with the new administration to further solidify and strengthen this vital relationship,” Shafqat told Arab News.
“We seek to further strengthen these ties by ensuring the continued positive growth of bilateral relations.”
But many foreign affairs experts believe the new US administration will continue viewing Pakistan through the “China-India lens.”
“The biggest challenge for Pakistan is that the Trump administration will continue its previous policies of looking at Pakistan through the China-India lens,” Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal, a professor at Quaid-e-Azam University’s School of Politics and International Relations, told Arab News.
“Now, the biggest challenge for us is how to convince the Americans that though we will be not a part of the American policies to contain China, but at the same time, we could be a part of Americans’ policies in addressing the non-traditional security challenges and on Afghanistan.”
Senator Sherry Rehman, who has previously served as Pakistan’s ambassador to the US, said every transition offers opportunities for a reset, and Pakistan needed to state its own goals for a broader bilateral path to widen its relationship with the US from a highly “securitized” lens to a more robust economic and commercial one.
“Islamabad should make a clear agenda with defined milestones for consistent engagement over better terms of trade, not just wait for Washington to respond to regional headwinds, in which Pakistan finds itself seeking balance against an Indian arms race in South Asia,” she told Arab News.
Dr. Salma Malik, another foreign affairs expert, said if the US adopts policies directed against China, every action or policy decision it takes will have a “direct or indirect impact on Pakistan.”
“Therefore, it is important not to overreact or panic, instead, we should cautiously approach developments, assess opportunities, and respond accordingly,” she said.
Thousands gather in Pakistan’s Karachi to celebrate Gaza ceasefire
- The truce took effect on Sunday with the release of first three hostages held by Hamas and 90 Palestinians freed from Israeli jails
- Jamaat-e-Islami, which organized the Karachi rally, urged the Pakistani people to support its initiative for the rebuilding of Gaza
KARACHI: Thousands of Pakistanis gathered on Monday on a main thoroughfare in the southern port city of Karachi to celebrate a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, describing it as a “victory of resistance forces.”
The truce in the 15-month-old war, which has laid waste to the Gaza Strip, took effect on Sunday with the release of the first three hostages held by Hamas and 90 Palestinians freed from Israeli jails.
Now, attention is starting to shift to the rebuilding of the coastal enclave which the Israeli military has demolished, killing more than 47,000 Palestinians since Oct. 7, 2023 attacks by Hamas on Israel.
To celebrate the ceasefire, the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) religious party organized a congregation on Shahrah-e-Quaideen thoroughfare in Karachi, which was attended by thousands of men, women, children and elderly.
“What happened in Gaza once again exposed the United States as it was the sponsor of the genocide,” JI chief Hafiz Naeemur Rehman told the attendees. “The freedom fighters [of Gaza] defeated Israel in all the dimensions.”
The attendees at the rally carried the Palestinian flags and chanted slogans in support of the people of Gaza.
Rehman urged them to support a JI initiative for the rebuilding of Gaza and continue their boycott of Israeli products and the products of the countries that sided with Israel.
Pakistan does not recognize nor have diplomatic relations with Israel and calls for an independent Palestinian state based on “internationally agreed parameters.”
The South Asian country has dispatched several relief consignments for Gaza, besides establishing the ‘Prime Minister’s Relief Fund’ that aims to collect public donations for the war-affected people.
In his address with the participants through a video link, Hamas official Khalid Qadoumi said Gaza proved to be “Vietnam for Israel.”
“Israel opted to retreat due its heavy military losses in the strip,” he was quoted as saying by the JI party.
“Israel displaced 90 [percent] population of Gaza, killed around 50,000 innocent, unarmed people, majority of them women and children, but it couldn’t defeat the resolve of Palestinian Muslims.”
Muhammad Farooq, a Pakistani provincial lawmaker, said the Pakistani nation stood by the Palestinians in their struggle for freedom.
“The freedom movement of Palestine has proved that life of nations is linked with resistance against oppression,” he added.
Iran’s top general meets Pakistani leaders, discusses security and border management
- Pakistan, Iran have often been at odds over instability along their shared, porous border and routinely trade blame for not rooting out militancy
- Tensions surged in January last year when Pakistan and Iran exchanged airstrikes, with both countries claiming to target alleged militant hideouts
ISLAMABAD: Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri, chief of general staff of Iranian armed forces, on Monday held talks with Pakistani civilian and military leaders with regard to regional security, counter-terrorism measures and joint border management, Pakistani authorities said.
Pakistan and Iran have often been at odds over instability along their shared, porous border and routinely trade blame for not rooting out militancy. Tensions surged in January last year when Pakistan and Iran exchanged airstrikes, with both claiming to target alleged militant hideouts in each other’s territory.
The two-day trip of the Iranian general is aimed at resolving security issues between Pakistan and Iran, while expanding friendship and economic ties along their shared border, Iranian media reported ahead of Major General Bagheri’s arrival in Pakistan on Sunday night.
On Monday, the general held separate meetings with Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari, Defense Minister Khawaja Asif and Army Chief Asim Munir. In his meeting with President Zardari, the two figures exchanged views on matters of bilateral importance and stressed the need to promote bilateral trade and economic relations.
“It was also highlighted that terrorism was a shared challenge, and both countries needed to take effective and coordinated measures to address this challenge,” the Press Information Department (PID) of the Pakistani government said in a statement.
In his conversation with the visiting dignitary, Defense Minister Asif expressed satisfaction over positive progression of bilateral relations between the two countries in all fields.
“Both sides showed satisfaction on progress in various areas of mutual interest, including joint border management and counter-terrorism measures, aimed at enhanced cooperation in areas of common interest in future,” the PID said.
Separately, Major General Bagheri met Pakistan’s army chief at the General Headquarters in Rawalpindi, where he was presented a guard of honor.
“During the meeting, both sides discussed matters related to the prevailing regional security environment and bilateral defense cooperation,” said the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the Pakistani military’s media wing.
In a bid to ease tensions, late Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi had also traveled to Pakistan on a three-day visit in April 2024. During the visit, the two sides had signed memorandums of understanding in the fields of trade, science technology, agriculture, health, culture, and judicial matters.
Raisi’s visit was followed by a two-day visit to Islamabad by Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi in Nov. to hold consultations with the Pakistani leadership on the Middle East situation, following Israel’s invasion of Gaza and Lebanon, and to discuss bilateral ties with Pakistan.
