How Pakistan's political crisis could play out

A man watches news channels broadcast a live address to the nation by Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan, in Islamabad, Pakistan, on March 31, 2022. (AP/File)
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Updated 04 April 2022
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How Pakistan's political crisis could play out

  • Pakistan's Supreme Court is looking into legality of PM Khan blocking parliamentary vote to oust him
  • Deputy speaker of parliament, member of Khan's party, threw out no-confidence motion on Sunday

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan's Supreme Court is looking into the legality of Prime Minister Imran Khan's unexpected move over the weekend to block a parliamentary vote against him and then call for a snap general election.
The deputy speaker of parliament, a member of Khan's party, threw out the no-confidence motion that Khan had widely been expected to lose, ruling that it was part of a foreign conspiracy and unconstitutional.
The court's five-member bench, headed by the country's chief justice, has adjourned proceedings until Tuesday.
Legal experts say that how the court rules on Khan's move could have major implications for democracy in Pakistan, where no prime minister has yet fulfilled a full term and where the military has ruled for nearly half of the country's history.
Here are some possible outcomes of the crisis:

THE COURT OVERTURNS KHAN'S ACTIONS
A court decision against the move to block the vote of no-confidence could overturn subsequent decisions made by the government, including the dissolution of the assembly and the calling of elections within 90 days.
In this case, the lower house of parliament would be restored and the vote against Khan could go ahead.
If Khan lost that vote, which he would be expected to, the opposition could nominate its own prime minister and hold power until August 2023 by which date fresh elections have to be held.
The opposition has also said it wants early elections, but only after delivering a political defeat to Khan and passing legislation it says is required to ensure the next polls are free and fair. They allege the 2018 polls, which Khan won, were not. He denies any wrongdoing.
A court ruling against Khan also opens the door for legal action against the 69-year-old and members of his party, as opponents say he is guilty of subverting the constitution.
In an extreme scenario, that could entail Khan's disqualification from the next elections, as happened to two previous prime ministers in 2012 and 2017.

THE COURT LEGITIMISES KHAN'S ACTIONS
If the court ruled that Khan's moves were legal, it would mean elections would go ahead within 90 days.
That would be a major political win for Khan and provide him with momentum going into the polls.

KHAN'S ACTIONS DEEMED ILLEGAL, BUT ELECTION GOES AHEAD
The court could rule that the steps taken by Khan were illegal, but that since the process of holding new elections was already under way, those plans should continue as announced to ensure there was as little political damage as possible.
That would not preclude possible legal action against Khan and his aides.

THE COURT DOES NOT INTERFERE
One question being debated in the media and among politicians is whether the Supreme Court can interfere in parliamentary proceedings at all.
There is a clause in the constitution that says that it cannot, but courts have interpreted this differently in the past - particularly when it relates to constitutional matters.
The court could keep itself out of this matter, which would mean all the steps taken by Khan were legitimised and Pakistan would have general elections within 90 days.

PROCEEDINGS DRAG ON
If the Supreme Court does not rule quickly, the power vacuum could begin to affect key policy areas, including talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for much-needed funds to support the cash-strapped economy.
At the moment, Pakistan has no government after Khan dissolved the cabinet. Between elections, there is usually a caretaker setup decided by consensus between the government and the opposition.
In the absence of such a consensus, the process would be passed to parliamentary committees and eventually the election commission, and that could take days.
There is a risk to markets in such a scenario. On Monday, Pakistan's stock exchange fell as did Pakistan's dollar bonds traded in the international market.

MILITARY INTERVENES
Pakistan has seen three direct military interventions citing economic and political uncertainty - in 1958, 1977 and in 1999.
Pakistan's military has long been a powerful player in politics, and it has ruled directly for 33 of Pakistan's 75 years since independence.
However, top generals have denied any involvement in the current political crisis and said that the armed forces were there to protect democracy.


IMF team concludes Pakistan visit after talks on budget proposals, economic policy and reforms

Updated 5 sec ago
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IMF team concludes Pakistan visit after talks on budget proposals, economic policy and reforms

  • The visit concluded hours after the Pakistani government announced it will now present Budget 2025-26 on June 10
  • Discussions in Islamabad focused on actions to enhance revenue and prioritize expenditure, the global lender says

ISLAMABAD: An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team has concluded its visit to Pakistan after discussions with authorities regarding the upcoming budget, broader economic policy and reforms under its ongoing $7 billion loan program, the lender said on Saturday.

The visit concluded hours after the Pakistani government announced it would now present the Budget 2025-26 on June 10, a delay from the earlier announced date of June 2, seen by many as a result of authorities’ struggle to finalize fiscal targets.

The Economic Survey 2024-25, which details performance of various sectors of the economy in the outgoing fiscal year, will be unveiled on June 9, a day before the budget presentation, according to the Pakistani finance ministry.

The discussions between Islamabad and the IMF team, led by Mission Chief Nathan Porter, began on May 19 and focused on recent economic developments, IMF program implementation, and the budget strategy for the next fiscal year.

“The authorities reaffirmed their commitment to fiscal consolidation while safeguarding social and priority expenditures, aiming for a primary surplus of 1.6 percent of GDP in FY2026,” Porter was quoted as saying by the IMF.

“Discussions focused on actions to enhance revenue — including by bolstering compliance and expanding the tax base — and prioritize expenditure. We will continue discussions toward agreeing over the authorities’ FY26 budget over the coming days.”

The IMF this month approved first review of Pakistan’s loan program, unlocking a $1 billion payment. A fresh $1.4 billion loan was also approved under the IMF’s climate resilience fund.

The IMF loan is vital for Pakistan which is trying to revive its debt-ridden economy that is expected to expand 2.68 percent by June, about one percent lower than the government’s earlier projection.

The IMF’s latest country report, issued last week, mentioned certain structural benchmarks for Pakistan’s economic reform program that officials said represented the natural progression of the measures already agreed upon, when Pakistan signed the Memorandum for Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP) in September.

“These benchmarks are not surprises. They are deliberate follow-ons to earlier milestones,” Khurram Schehzad, an adviser to Pakistan’s finance minister, told Arab News this week, citing Pakistan’s parliamentary approval of the next budget in line with the IMF staff agreement as a second step toward the country’s goal of achieving a primary surplus of 2 percent of GDP by FY27.

“The first step was the FY25 budget [presented in June last year], which targeted a 1.0 percent surplus.”

Discussions between Pakistan and the visiting IMF team also covered ongoing energy sector reforms aimed at improving financial viability and reducing the high-cost structure of Pakistan’s power sector as well as other structural reforms which will help foster “sustainable growth and promote a more level playing field for business and investment,” according to the lender.

Pakistani authorities emphasized their commitment to ensuring sound macroeconomic policy-making and -building buffers.

“In this context, maintaining an appropriately tight and data-dependent monetary policy remains a priority to ensure inflation is anchored within the central bank’s medium-term target range of 5–7 percent,” the lender said.

“At the same time, rebuilding foreign exchange reserve buffers, preserving a fully functioning FX [foreign exchange] market, and allowing for greater exchange rate flexibility are critical to strengthening resilience to external shocks.”

The next IMF mission is expected to visit Pakistan in the second half of 2025 for next reviews its loan program and climate fund facility.


Beyond ceasefire, India and Pakistan battle on in digital trenches

Updated 9 min 19 sec ago
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Beyond ceasefire, India and Pakistan battle on in digital trenches

  • Both states continue to push competing narratives after the four-day military standoff, which ended on May 10 with a US-brokered truce
  • Digital rights experts note how it is often laced with hate, targeting vulnerable communities like Muslims in India and Hindus in Pakistan

ISLAMABAD: As Indian and Pakistani guns fell silent after trading fire for days this month, the war over facts and fiction is far from over and fierce battle rages on social media as to who won, who distorted the truth, and which version of events should be trusted.

As both states continue to push competing narratives, experts warn that misinformation, censorship and AI-generated propaganda have turned digital platforms into battlegrounds, with real-world consequences for peace, truth and regional stability.

The four-day military standoff, which ended on May 10 with a US-brokered ceasefire, resulted from an attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that killed 26 people last month. India accused Pakistan of backing the assault, a charge Islamabad has consistently denied.

While the truce between the nuclear-armed archfoes has since held, digital rights experts have sounded alarm over the parallel information war, which continues based on disinformation, censorship and propaganda on both sides, threatening the ceasefire between both nations.

Asad Baig, who heads the Media Matters for Democracy not-for-profit that works on media literacy and digital democracy, noted that broadcast media played a central role in spreading falsehoods during the India-Pakistan standoff to cater to an online audience hungry for “sensational content.”

“Disinformation was overwhelmingly spread from the Indian side,” Baig told Arab News. “Media was playing to a polarized, online audience. Conflict became content, and content became currency in the monetization game.”

A man clicks a picture of a billboard featuring Pakistan's Army Chief General Syed Asim Munir (C), Naval Chief Admiral Naveed Ashraf (R), and Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Babar Sidhu, along a road in Peshawar on May 15, 2025. (AFP/File)

Several mainstream media outlets, mostly in India, flooded the public with fake news, doctored visuals and sensationalist coverage, fueling mass anxiety and misinformation, according to fact-checkers and experts, who say the role of media at this critical geopolitical juncture undermined journalistic integrity and misled citizens.

“I think this is a perfect example of the media becoming a tool of propaganda in the hands of a state,” said prominent digital rights activist Usama Khilji, calling on those at the helm of television and digital media outlets to independently verify state claims using tools like satellite imagery or on-ground sources.

In Pakistan, X, previously known as Twitter, had been banned since February 2024, with digital rights groups and global organizations calling the blockade a “blatant violation” of civic liberties and a threat to democratic freedoms.

But on May 7, as Pakistan’s responded to India’s missile strikes on its territory that began the conflict, the platform was suddenly restored, allowing users to access it without a VPN that allows them to bypass such restrictions by masking their location. The platform has remained accessible since.

“We were [previously] told that X is banned because of national security threats,” Khilji told Arab News, praising the government’s “strategic move” to let the world hear Pakistan’s side of the story during this month’s conflict.

“But when we actually got a major national security threat in terms of literal war, X was unblocked.”

Indian authorities meanwhile blocked more than 8,000 X, YouTube and Instagram accounts belonging to news outlets as well as Pakistani celebrities, journalists and influencers.

“When only one narrative is allowed to dominate, it creates echo chambers that breed confusion, fuel conflict, and dangerously suppress the truth,” Khilji explained.

VIRTUAL WAR

Minutes after India attacked Pakistan with missiles on May 7, Pakistan released a video to journalists via WhatsApp that showed multiple blasts hitting an unknown location purportedly in Pakistan. However, the video later turned out to be of Israeli bombardment of Gaza and was retracted.

A woman wearing a T-shirt featuring ‘OPERATION SINDOOR’ checks her mobile phone near a market area in Ludhiana on May 17, 2025. (AFP/File)

On May 8, Indian news outlets played a video in which a Pakistani military spokesperson admitted to the downing of two of their Chinese-made JF-17 fighter jets. X users later pointed out that the video was AI-generated.

Throughout the standoff both mainstream and digital media outlets found themselves in the eye of the storm, with many official and verified accounts sharing and then retracting false information. The use of AI-generated videos and even video game simulations misrepresented battlefield scenarios in real time and amplified confusion at a critical moment.

Insights from experts paint a disturbing picture of how information warfare is becoming inseparable from conventional conflict. From deliberate state narratives to irresponsible media and rampant misinformation on social platforms, the truth itself is becoming a casualty of war.

AFP Digital Verification Correspondent Rimal Farrukh describes how false information was often laced with hate speech, targeting vulnerable communities like Muslims in India and Hindus in Pakistan.

“We saw dehumanizing language, misleading visuals, and recycled war footage, often from unrelated conflicts like Russia-Ukraine or Israel-Gaza, used to stoke fear and deepen biases,” she told Arab News.


Pakistan to export female beauticians to Saudi Arabia — state media

Updated 24 May 2025
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Pakistan to export female beauticians to Saudi Arabia — state media

  • Hairdressers, makeup and nail artists under the age of 40 are required, OEC says
  • Pakistan has long maintained a strong labor export relationship with the Kingdom

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s Overseas Employment Corporation (OEC) will send skilled female beauticians to Saudi Arabia in response to a demand from a private firm in the Kingdom, state media reported on Friday, outlining the qualifications required for applicants.

The initiative comes as part of Pakistan’s long-standing labor export relationship with Saudi Arabia, which remains the top destination for Pakistani workers and contributes over $700 million in monthly remittances to the South Asian country.

Pakistan regularly sends skilled labor to Gulf nations, including medical professionals, engineers and technicians. The latest move targets the beauty and personal care sector.

“Overseas Employment Corporation, an attached department of the Ministry of Overseas Pakistanis and Human Resource Development, will export skilled workers (female beauticians) to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia,” the Associated Press of Pakistan (APP) said.

It informed a Saudi firm is seeking beauticians for various roles, including senior hairdresser, nail technician (gel and acrylic), eyelash specialist, makeup artist, waxing and bleaching specialist and wig technician.

The required qualifications include a minimum of three years’ experience and an age limit of under 40 years.

APP said the firm will offer senior beauticians a monthly salary of 3,000 Saudi Riyals or approximately $800.

Employees will also receive free shared accommodation with furnishings and air conditioning, food allowance, and round-trip airfare, along with surface transport within Saudi Arabia if needed.

The news report said applications must be submitted via the OEC website by June 8.

Pakistan and Saudi Arabia enjoy robust economic, defense and cultural ties.

The Kingdom hosts over 2.7 million Pakistani expatriates and remains the largest source of remittances to Pakistan, a crucial lifeline for the country’s cash-strapped economy.


PM Sharif calls for economic policies to revive Pakistan’s export competitiveness

Updated 23 May 2025
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PM Sharif calls for economic policies to revive Pakistan’s export competitiveness

  • The PM outlines the goal during a meeting with Dr. Stefan Dercon, a prominent British economist
  • He calls for deep-rooted reforms to steer Pakistan’s economy back toward export-led growth

ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thursday stressed the need for balance across all economic policies to revive Pakistan’s export potential, saying his government wanted to take the country back to a place where its products were once again in global demand.
The remarks came during a meeting with Dr. Stefan Dercon, a prominent British economist and professor of economic policy at Oxford University.
Dercon, who previously served as the UK Department for International Development’s (DFID) chief economist, is widely recognized for his work on poverty, institutional reform and economic development in low- and middle-income countries.
“A sound balance across all policies is essential to promote business,” the prime minister was quoted as saying in an official statement circulated by his office. “For Pakistan’s economic development, alignment between fiscal policy, taxation policy and production policy is necessary.”
“In the past, Pakistani products were in high demand globally and the country was counted among the world’s major exporters,” he continued. “We want to bring Pakistan back to that place.”
Sharif’s meeting with the British economist took place at a time when Pakistan seeks to strengthen its economy through increased exports and foreign investment, following signs of stabilization under an IMF-supported economic program.
He maintained that deep-rooted reforms were required to transition the national economy back toward export-led growth.
Dercon praised the direction of Pakistan’s economic policy and reform agenda, noting improving investor sentiment toward the country.
He particularly lauded Pakistan’s tariff rationalization efforts, which aim to simplify and streamline import duties to support industrial competitiveness.
The meeting was also attended by top members of the government’s economic team, including Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal and senior officials from relevant departments.


IMF defends $1 billion disbursement to Pakistan amid India’s objections

Updated 23 May 2025
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IMF defends $1 billion disbursement to Pakistan amid India’s objections

  • IMF communications director says the board approved funding as Pakistan had ‘met all of the targets’
  • She clarifies EFF disbursements go to the central bank and are not used to fund the national budget

KARACHI: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) this week defended its decision to release a $1 billion tranche to Pakistan, despite India’s concern over its potential misuse, by pointing out the country had met all requisite targets under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF).

India had raised objections to the IMF’s disbursement amid a military confrontation with Pakistan, saying the funds could be diverted to support activities that it described as detrimental to regional stability. New Delhi abstained from the IMF Executive Board vote on May 9, highlighting apprehensions about the timing and potential implications of the financial assistance.

During a news briefing in Washington on Thursday, IMF Communications Director Julie Kozack addressed these concerns, saying the international lender provided financing to member states for the purpose of resolving balance of payments problems.

“In the case of Pakistan … the EFF disbursements … are allocated to the reserves of the central bank,” she said. “Under the program, those resources are not part of budget financing … [and] are not transferred to the government to support the budget.”

The IMF official further emphasized the Fund’s decision was based on Pakistan meeting all the targets set under the loan program.

“Our Board found that Pakistan had indeed met all of the targets,” she continued. “It had made progress on some of the reforms, and for that reason, the Board went ahead and approved the program.”

Kozack also outlined the safeguards to prevent any potential misuse of funds, including targets on the accumulation of international reserves and a zero target for central bank lending to the government.

She also noted the program includes substantial structural conditionality aimed at improving fiscal management.

The IMF’s disbursement this month was part of a broader $7 billion support program aimed at stabilizing Pakistan’s economy. The Fund has said future disbursements will depend on Pakistan’s continued adherence to the program’s conditions and reforms.