WELLINGTON, New Zealand: A security alliance between China and the Solomon Islands has sent shudders throughout the South Pacific, with many worried it could set off a large-scale military buildup or that Western animosity to the deal could play into China’s hands.
What remains most unclear is the extent of China’s ambitions.
A Chinese military presence in the Solomons would put it not only on the doorstep of Australia and New Zealand but also in close proximity to Guam, with its massive US military bases.
China so far operates just one acknowledged foreign military base, in the impoverished but strategically important Horn of Africa nation of Djibouti. Many believe that China’s People’s Liberation Army is busy establishing an overseas military network, even if they don’t use the term “base.”
The Solomon Islands government says a draft of its agreement with China was initialed last week and will be “cleaned up” and signed soon.
The draft, which was leaked online, says that Chinese warships could stop in the Solomons for “logistical replenishment” and that China could send police, military personnel and other armed forces to the Solomons “to assist in maintaining social order.”
The draft agreement specifies China must approve what information is disclosed about joint security arrangements, including at media briefings.
The Solomon Islands, home to about 700,000 people, switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to Beijing in 2019 — a move rejected by the most populous province and a contributing factor to riots last November.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken responded in February by saying that Washington would reopen its embassy in the capital, Honiara, which has been closed since 1993, to increase its influence in the Solomons before China becomes “strongly embedded.”
Both China and the Solomons have strongly denied the new pact will lead to the establishment of a Chinese military base. The Solomon Islands government said the pact is necessary because of its limited ability to deal with violent uprisings like the one in November.
“The country has been ruined by recurring internal violence for years,” the government said this week.
But Australia, New Zealand and the US have all expressed alarm about the deal, with New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern describing it as “gravely concerning.”
David Panuelo, the president of nearby Micronesia, which has close ties to the US, wrote an impassioned letter to Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare asking him to rethink the agreement.
He noted that both Micronesia and the Solomon Islands were battlegrounds during World War II, caught up in the clash of great powers.
“I am confident that neither of us wishes to see a conflict of that scope or scale ever again, and most particularly in our own backyards,” Panuelo wrote.
But the Solomon Islands police minister mocked Panuelo’s concerns on social media, saying he should be more worried about his own atoll being swallowed by the ocean due to climate change.
Sogavare has likewise dismissed foreign criticism of the security agreement as insulting, while labeling those who leaked the draft as “lunatics.”
China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson said the agreement aims to maintain the safety of people’s lives and property, and “does not have any military overtones,” saying media speculation on the potential development of a base was groundless.
Euan Graham, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies based in Singapore, said China has been pursuing such a port facility for some five years as it aims to expand its naval presence in the South Pacific as part of Beijing’s long-game of seeking to become the dominant regional power.
“If they want to break out into the Pacific, at some point they will need the logistics capability to support that presence,” Graham said. “We’re not talking about war plans here; this is really about extending their presence and influence.”
Unlike the base built in Djibouti, where China has commercial interests in the region to protect, Graham said any operation in the Solomon Islands would likely be less substantial.
“It’s quite a subtle and interesting geopolitical game that’s emerged in the South Pacific,” he added. “And I think the Chinese have been very successful, if you like, in outflanking the United States and Australia in an influence competition, not a military competition.”
China’s base in Djibouti was opened in 2017. China doesn’t call it a base, but rather a support facility for its naval operations fending off piracy in the Gulf of Aden and for its African peacekeeping operations. It boasts a 400-meter (1,300-foot) runway and a pier big enough to dock either of China’s two operating aircraft carriers.
The base, with 2,000 personnel, allows China to position supplies, troops and equipment in a strategically crucial region, while also keeping an eye on US forces that are stationed nearby.
Chief among other potential base candidates is Cambodia, whose authoritarian leader Hun Sen has long been a trusted Chinese ally and which reportedly signed a secret 2019 agreement permitting the establishment of a Chinese base.
China is dredging the harbor at Ream Naval Base to allow ships larger than any Cambodia possesses to dock, and is building new infrastructure to replace a US-built naval tactical headquarters. A Chinese base in Cambodia would establish a chokepoint in the Gulf of Thailand close to the crucial Malacca Strait.
China has also funded projects at Gwadar in Pakistan, another close ally, and in Sri Lanka, where Chinese infrastructure lending has forced the government to hand over control of the southern port of Hambantota.
Especially intriguing has been an alleged Chinese push to establish a base in the West African nation of Equatorial Guinea. That would give China a presence on the Atlantic opposite the east coast of the continental United States as well as in an important African oil-producing region.
“China has seized opportunities to expand its influence at a time when the US and other countries have not been as engaged economically in the Pacific islands,” said Elizabeth Wishnick, an expert on Chinese foreign policy at Montclair State University in New Jersey.
About 80 years ago in the Solomon Islands, the US military began its famous “island hopping” campaign of World War II to take back Pacific islands from Imperial Japanese forces one-by-one. It successfully won back the main island of Guadalcanal in February 1943 after some six months of fierce fighting.
Today, the Solomon Islands would give China the potential ability to interfere with US naval operations in the region that could be crucial in the event of a conflict over Taiwan or in the South and East China seas.
Lt. Gen. Greg Bilton, Australia’s chief of joint operations, said that if Chinese naval ships were able to operate from the Solomon Islands it would “change the calculus.”
“They’re in much closer proximity to the Australian mainland, obviously, and that would change the way that we would undertake day-to-day operations, particularly in the air and at sea,” he told reporters.
But Jonathan Pryke, the director of the Pacific Islands Program at the Lowy Institute, an Australian think tank, said he thinks that leaders have overreacted to the agreement, perhaps in Australia’s case because there is an election looming.
“It’s clearly getting everyone very animated in the West and very alarmed,” Pryke said. “But I don’t think it markedly changes things on the ground.”
He said the pact could be seen as the first step toward China establishing a base, but there would need to be many more steps taken before that could happen.
“I think the alarmism has strengthened China’s hand by pushing the Solomon Islands into a corner,” Pryke said. “And they’ve reacted the way I imagine many countries would react from getting this outside pressure — by pushing back, and digging their heels in.”
China’s security deal with Solomons raises alarm in Pacific
https://arab.news/cxraj
China’s security deal with Solomons raises alarm in Pacific
- A Chinese military presence in the Solomons would put it on the doorstep of Australia and New Zealand
- It will also be in close proximity to Guam, with its massive US military bases
Center-right parties set to hold power in Ireland
- To form a majority, a party or coalition requires at least 88 seats
DUBLIN: The incumbent center-right parties Fianna Fail and Fine Gael looked set to retain power in Ireland as vote counting in the European Union member’s general election resumed on Sunday.
With half the seats of the new 174-seat lower chamber of parliament decided since Friday’s vote, the two parties were ahead of the main opposition party, the left-wing nationalist Sinn Fein.
Fianna Fail, led by the experienced Micheal Martin, 64, won the largest vote share with 22 percent.
Fine Gael, whose leader Simon Harris, 38, is the outgoing prime minister (taoiseach), was in second place with 21 percent, while Sinn Fein was in third (19 percent).
To form a majority, a party or coalition requires at least 88 seats. At the halfway stage Fianna Fail had secured 23 seats, Fine Gael 22, and Sinn Fein 21.
Both center-right parties have repeatedly ruled out entering a coalition with Sinn Fein.
The center-left opposition parties Labour and the Social Democrats are seen by Fine Gael and Fianna Fail as the most likely junior coalition parties, according to media reports.
The Green Party was the third member of the previous coalition but its support collapsed nationwide, with all but one seat likely to be lost.
At the last general election in 2020, the pro-Irish unity Sinn Fein — the former political wing of the paramilitary Irish Republican Army — was the most popular party but could not find willing coalition partners.
That led to weeks of horse-trading, ending up with Fine Gael, which has been in power since 2011, agreeing a deal with Fianna Fail.
During the last parliamentary term, the role of prime minister rotated between the Fianna Fail and Fine Gael leaders.
The final seat numbers, which will not be confirmed until early next week, will determine whether Harris returns as taoiseach or Martin takes the role under a similar rotation arrangement.
The new parliament is due to sit for the first time on December 18, but with coalition talks likely to drag on a new government might not be formed until the new year.
Martin told reporters in Cork that there was “very little point” in discussing government formation until seats were finalized.
“I think there’s capacity to get on,” he said, when asked if there is trust between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael.
Paschal Donohoe, a top Fine Gael minister in the outgoing cabinet, said there was “a chance” a government might still be formed this year.
“But we do have a lot of work to do,” Donohoe told reporters in Dublin after his own re-election to parliament.
“Overall the center has held up in Irish politics,” he said.
The three-week campaign, launched after Harris called a snap election on November 8, was dominated by rancour over housing supply and cost-of-living crises, health, public spending and the economy.
“It’s all been an anti-climax as far as I’m concerned,” Michael O’Kane, a 76-year-old semi-retired engineer, told AFP in Dublin.
“It’s more of the same. The two parties who dominated the government last time are back again... but with the (fresh coalition partners) it might be a little bit less stable,” he said.
Kosovo, Serbia engage in war of words after canal blast
- The blast damaged a canal supplying water to hundreds of thousands of people and cooling systems at two coal-fired power plants that generate most of Kosovo’s electricity
BELGRADE: Kosovo and Serbia continued to sling allegations at each other on Sunday, just days after an explosion targeting a strategic canal in Kosovo sent tensions soaring between the long-time rivals.
During a press conference, Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti accused Serbia of “copying Russian methods to threaten Kosovo and our region in general” after the explosion on Friday on the waterway near Zubin Potok, an area of Kosovo’s volatile north dominated by ethnic Serbs.
“Despite this, the effort is also destined to fail, as Kosovo is based on Western democratic values,” added Kurti.
The blast damaged a canal supplying water to hundreds of thousands of people and cooling systems at two coal-fired power plants that generate most of Kosovo’s electricity.
Kurti’s comments came just hours after Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic slammed the stream of accusations from Pristina during a live address to the country.
Vucic said the explosion and Kosovo’s accusations were “an attempt at a large and ferocious hybrid attack” on Serbia.
Belgrade’s Kosovo office said the strike gave the Pristina government an excuse to crack down on ethnic Serbs in Kosovo.
“We have no connection with it,” Vucic said of the attack.
He stopped short of directly accusing any individual or state of orchestrating the blast and said Serbian authorities had opened their own investigation.
Animosity between Serbia and Kosovo, which has an ethnic Albanian majority, has persisted since the end of a war in the late 1990s between Belgrade’s forces and ethnic Albanian separatists in what was then a province of Serbia.
Serbia has never recognized Kosovo’s 2008 declaration of independence.
The Kosovo prime minister said in Pristina that the attack would have had “enormous” consequences if it had been successful.
According to the premier, the attack had the potential to unleash major disruptions to Kosovo’s power and water supply for weeks.
“The goal was for most of our country in December to remain without water, in the dark, in the cold and without communication,” said Kurti.
A “temporary” repair had saved the water supply and there had been no impact on the electricity supply.
Serbian officials have fired back, saying that the accusations from Kosovo have ulterior motives.
Petar Petkovic, director of the Serbian government’s Kosovo office, said the incident had provided Kurti with a pretext to try to expel ethnic Serbs from northern Kosovo.
“What happened in the village of Varage gave Kurti an alibi to continue the attacks in the north of Kosovo... and to continue the policy of expulsion of the Serb people,” Petkovic told public broadcaster RTS.
The United States has condemned the canal attack.
“We will support efforts to find and punish those responsible and appreciate all offers of support to that effort,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller posted on X.
Earlier on Sunday, Vucic vowed to cooperate with international bodies in the blast’s wake.
The Kosovo government on Sunday also announced measures to better protect critical infrastructure, including bridges, power stations and lakes, with police and security forces conducting patrols.
It was also stepping up cooperation between governing departments and international bodies “to prevent similar attacks in future,” it said.
Kosovo authorities arrested several suspects on Saturday.
Kosovo police chief Gazmend Hoxha said “200 military uniforms, six grenade launchers, two rifles, a pistol, masks and knives” had been seized in the operation.
Fuelling tensions, Kurti’s government has for months sought to dismantle a parallel system, backed by Belgrade, that provides social services and political offices for Kosovo’s ethnic Serb minority.
Friday’s attack followed violent incidents in northern Kosovo, including one in which hand grenades were hurled at a local council building and a police station this week.
Kosovo is to hold parliamentary elections on February 9.
Tens of thousands rally in Georgia as PM rebuffs calls for new election
- On Thursday, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced Georgia would not seek accession talks with the European Union until 2028, sparking a wave of protests in the capital Tbilisi and other cities
TBILISI: Tens of thousands in Georgia on Sunday took part in a fourth straight day of protests against a government decision to shelve EU membership talks, as the prime minister rebuffed calls for new elections.
The Black Sea nation has been rocked by turmoil since the governing Georgian Dream party claimed victory in October 26 parliamentary polls that the pro-European opposition said were fraudulent.
The opposition is boycotting the new parliament, while pro-EU President Salome Zurabishvili has asked the constitutional court to annul the election result, declaring the new legislature and government “illegitimate.”
Critics accuse Georgian Dream, in power for more than a decade, of having steered the country away from the EU in recent years and of moving closer to Russia, an accusation it denies.
On Thursday, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced Georgia would not seek accession talks with the European Union until 2028, sparking a wave of protests in the capital Tbilisi and other cities.
The interior ministry has said about 150 demonstrators have been arrested in this latest protest wave, while the Georgian Young Lawyers’ Association put the number at 200.
Police in some instances have chased protesters through the streets, beating them and firing rubber bullets and tear gas.
Waving European and Georgian flags, tens of thousands rallied outside parliament on Sunday evening, AFP reporters saw.
Some demonstrators tossed fireworks and stones at riot police, while others banged on the metal door blocking parliament’s entrance.
Police later deployed water cannons, but were unable to disperse the crowds.
The leader of the opposition United National Movement party, Levan Khabeishvili, told journalists that he was attacked by around 15 masked police officers attempting to detain him, but he had managed to escape with the help of protesters.
“Georgian Dream... is a (pro) Russian government, and they must go,” said demonstrator Alexandre Diasamidze, a 32-year-old bartender.
Another protest took place outside the offices of Georgia’s Public Broadcaster (GPB), widely accused of acting as a propaganda tool for the ruling party.
The broadcaster conceded to the protesters’ demand to grant Zurabishvili airtime, which it had previously denied her.
Simultaneous protests took place in cities across Georgia.
Fuelling popular anger, Kobakhidze ruled out new parliamentary elections, saying that “the formation of the new government based on the October 26 parliamentary elections has been completed.”
Earlier this week, the party nominated far-right former football international Mikheil Kavelashvili for the largely ceremonial post of president.
But Zurabishvili told AFP in an exclusive interview on Saturday that she would not step down until last month’s contested parliamentary elections are re-run.
Brussels has not recognized the outcome of the October elections and demanded an investigation into “serious electoral irregularities.”
The European Parliament has called for a re-run and for sanctions against top Georgian officials, including Kobakhidze.
Zurabishvili on Saturday said that she was “the only legitimate institution in the country,” and that “as long as there are no new elections... my mandate continues.”
Constitutional law experts, including one author of Georgia’s constitution, Vakhtang Khmaladze, told AFP that any decisions made by the new parliament — including the nomination of Kobakhidze as prime minister and the coming presidential election — would be invalid.
That is because parliament had approved its own credentials in violation of a legal requirement to await a court ruling on Zurabishvili’s bid to annul the election results, they said.
Hundreds of public servants, including from the ministries of foreign affairs, defense and education, as well as a number of judges, issued joint statements protesting Kobakhidze’s decision to postpone EU accession talks.
More than 200 Georgian diplomats criticized the move as contradicting the constitution and leading the country “into international isolation.”
A number of Georgia’s ambassadors resigned, while around 100 schools and universities suspended academic activities in protest.
The crackdown on protests has provoked international condemnation.
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania jointly agreed to impose sanctions “against those who suppressed legitimate protests in Georgia,” Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said on social media.
US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller on Saturday condemned “excessive force used against Georgians exercising their freedom to protest.”
Trudeau promised Trump tougher border controls, says top Canada official
- Trump said on Saturday he discussed the border, trade and energy in a “very productive” meeting with Trudeau
OTTAWA: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau promised President-elect Donald Trump that Canada would toughen controls over the long undefended joint border, a senior Canadian official said on Sunday. Trudeau flew to Florida on Friday to have dinner with Trump, who has promised to slap tariffs on Canadian imports unless Ottawa prevents migrants and drugs from crossing the frontier.
Canada sends 75 percent of all goods and services exports to the United States and tariffs would badly hurt the economy.
Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc, who sat at the head table with Trudeau and Trump, said the two men discussed additional security measures Canada would be introducing.
“We’re going to look to procure, for example, additional drones, additional police helicopters, we’re going to redeploy personnel ... we believe that the border is secure,” he told the Canadian Broadcasting Corp.
“It’s important, I think, to show Canadians and the Americans that we’re stepping up in a visible and muscular way, and that’s exactly what we’re going to do,” he added, promising more details in the days and weeks to come.
Canada, he said, would continue to make the case that tariffs would damage both nations, given how interconnected the two economies are.
“I’m confident that the Americans will understand that it’s not in their interest ... to proceed in this way,” he said, describing the dinner meeting as very warm and cordial.
Trump said on Saturday he discussed the border, trade and energy in a “very productive” meeting with Trudeau.
The friendly nature of the dinner contrasts with previous exchanges between the two men.
Trump called Trudeau “a far left lunatic” in 2022 for requiring truck drivers crossing the border to be vaccinated against COVID. In June 2018, Trump walked out of a G7 summit in Quebec and blasted Trudeau for being “very dishonest and weak.”
At the end of the dinner, LeBlanc said, Trump walked Trudeau to his car and said “Keep in touch. Call me anytime. Talk soon.”
Poland border fence divides officials and rights groups
- Since 2021, Poland has seen thousands of migrants and refugees, mainly from the Middle East and Africa, attempting to enter the EU and NATO country through Belarus
MINKOWCE: An impenetrable barrier against irregular migration for some, a deadly trap for others: a metal fence erected on the Polish-Belarusian border is dividing Poland’s authorities and human rights groups.
At its foot, Polish soldiers, hooded and carrying machine guns, patrol the border — a flashpoint between Warsaw and Minsk whom Poland had blamed for orchestrating the influx of migrants.
“Migration is artificially directed here,” said Michal Bura, a spokesman for the Podlasie region border guards, joining the patrol in his four-wheel drive.
“The Belarusian services help the migrants, transport them from one place to another, and equip them with tools they need to cross this barrier, such as pliers, hacksaws, and ladders,” he added.
This month, the 5-meter-high metal barrier along the border built in 2022 has been reinforced with metal bars and another layer of barbed wire.
Warsaw has also installed new cameras every 200 meters along the fence to detect migrants before they even attempt to cross it.
SPEEDREAD
This month, the 5-meter-high metal barrier along the border built in 2022 has been reinforced with metal bars and another layer of barbed wire.
Since 2021, Poland has seen thousands of migrants and refugees, mainly from the Middle East and Africa, attempting to enter the EU and NATO country through Belarus.
Warsaw has called it a hybrid operation by Belarus and its ally Russia to increase migratory pressure and thereby destabilize the EU.
Bura said the modernization of the fence, due to be completed by the end of the year, was already having an effect.
“Crossings have decreased significantly” along the reinforced stretches, he said.
Fearing Russia, Poland has also announced it would spend over €2.3 billion on an “eastern shield” — a system of military fortifications along the border, which will make it even more difficult for migrants to cross.
But, according to border guards, while the overall number of crossings fell as winter arrived, it had already reached 28,500 by mid-November compared with 26,000 in total last year.
Right in the middle of the Europe’s largest primeval forest of Bialowieza, Aleksandra Chrzanowska packed into plastic bags what remained of a former makeshift migrant camp — a torn emergency blanket, medicines, shoes hidden under leaves wet from the snow.
“The border is about 20 kilometers away,” she said, pointing to the east and the thick forest.
“It takes migrants between 30 hours and a week to get here. It all depends on their physical condition, whether they have children with them, and what the weather is like,” said
Chrzanowska, a member of Grupa Granica, a nonprofit helping migrants in distress.
Its volunteers bring them water, food, dry clothes, and medicine.
In case of emergency or threat to life, they administer first aid, help migrants fill out asylum application forms or serve as translators in communication with the authorities.
“In the long term, this barrier, these electronic installations, do not change anything,” said Chrzanowska, who added no real migration policy was implemented by the government.
According to rights groups, migrants at the border are increasingly subjected to police violence, with some suffering injuries inflicted by dog bites or rubber bullets.
Some migrants have also injured themselves by jumping from the top of the fence.
“Half of the patients we treat have physical injuries and mental trauma resulting from crossing the border,” Uriel Mazzoli, head of Doctors Without Borders Mission in Poland, said.
