DUBAI: The war in Ukraine has “multiplied risks” for the Middle East and North Africa’s poorer countries by raising food and energy prices, the World Bank said Thursday, warning of potential social unrest.
In its latest update to its MENA growth forecast, the development lender said inflationary pressures set off by Covid-19 “are likely to be exacerbated” by Russia’s invasion.
“The threat of Covid-19 variants remains and the war in Ukraine has multiplied risks, particularly for the poor,” the World Bank’s MENA vice president, Ferid BelHajj, said in the report, titled “Reality Check.”
World Bank president David Malpass said this week that the Russian war on Ukraine has started a chain reaction in the global economy, pushing energy and food prices higher, exacerbating debt concerns and potentially worsening poverty and hunger.
“Rising food prices may have far-reaching effects beyond increasing food insecurity,” said the report, adding: “Historically in MENA, increases in bread prices have... contributed to increased social unrest and conflict.
“This link between food prices, conflict and low growth poses a serious concern for the humanitarian crisis in fragile, conflict and violence-affected states in MENA,” it said.
Ukraine is a key source of grain, while Russia is a major producer of energy and fertilizer needed for agriculture. The MENA region is heavily dependent on wheat supplies from both countries.
According to the report, inflation in oil-rich Gulf countries is expected to reach 3.0 percent this year compared to 1.2 percent in 2021, and will rise to 3.7 percent in oil-importing countries from 1.4 percent last year.
“For some oil importers, food subsidies would be hard to maintain due to limited resources,” while “rising oil prices could delay reforms,” the report said.
Despite that, the World Bank forecasts that economic growth in the region will be 5.2 percent in 2022, the fastest rate since 2016.
“The region as a whole is buoyed by oil” and is doing “much better” than any other in the world, lead economist for the MENA region Daniel Lederman told AFP in an interview.
However, the expected growth is “insufficient and uneven.”
“Insufficent because a large number of economies in the MENA region will still be poor in terms of their GDP per capita relative to where they were in 2019 in the eve of the pandemic,” he said.
And “uneven because the faster (recovering) economies for 2022 are expected to be oil exporters, but oil importers are expected to suffer.”
Oil-exporting economies are expected to grow 5.4 percent on the back of the recovery from the pandemic, the expected increase in oil output and high oil prices.
But oil importers are expected to expand by a much lower 4.0 percent, the report said, warning that 11 out of 17 MENA economies may not recover to pre-pandemic levels by the end of this year.
“When the price of energy and food rises, it hurts the poorest and the most vulnerable,” Lederman said.
War in Ukraine raising risks for Mideast, World Bank warns
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War in Ukraine raising risks for Mideast, World Bank warns
- The development lender said inflationary pressures set off by Covid-19 "are likely to be exacerbated" by Russia's invasion
- Historically in MENA, increases in bread prices have... contributed to increased social unrest and conflict
Hamas-led force targets gangs looting Gaza aid convoys
Since being formed this month amid rising public anger at aid seizures and price gouging, the new force has staged repeated operations, ambushing looters and killing some in armed clashes, the sources said.
Hamas’ efforts to take a lead in securing aid supplies point to the difficulties Israel will face in a post-war Gaza, with few obvious alternatives to a group it has been trying to destroy for over a year and which it says can have no governing role.
Israel accuses Hamas of hijacking aid. The group denies that and accuses Israel of trying to foment anarchy in Gaza by targeting police guarding aid convoys.
A spokesperson for Israel’s military did not immediately respond to Reuters request for comment on Hamas units fighting looters.
Amid the chaos of the war, armed gangs have increasingly raided supply convoys, hijacking trucks and selling the looted stock in Gaza markets at exorbitant prices.
As well as driving anger at the Israeli military, the shortages had also prompted questions of Hamas for its seeming inability to stop the gangs.
“We are all against the bandits and looters so we can live and eat ... now you are obliged to buy from a thief,” said Diyaa Al-Nasara, speaking near a funeral for a Hamas fighter killed in clashes with looters.
The new anti-looting force, formed of well-equipped fighters from Hamas and allied groups, has been named “The Popular and Revolutionary Committees” and is ready to open fire on hijackers who do not surrender, one of the sources, a Hamas government official, said.
The official, who declined to be named because Hamas would not authorize him to speak about it, said the group operated across central and southern Gaza and had carried out at least 15 missions so far, including killing some armed gangsters.
WIDESPREAD HUNGER
Thirteen months into Israel’s devastating military campaign in Gaza, launched in response to the deadly Hamas attacks of Oct. 7, 2023, major shortages of food, medicine and other goods are causing widespread hunger and suffering among civilians.
Israel put commercial goods imports on hold last month and only aid trucks have entered Gaza since then, carrying a fraction of what relief groups say is needed for a territory where most people have lost their homes and have little money.
“It’s getting harder and harder to get the aid in,” said WHO spokesperson Margaret Harris after a series of looting incidents over the weekend.
Before the war, a sack of flour sold for $10 or $15 and a kilogram of milk powder for 30 shekels. Now the flour costs $100 and the milk powder 300 shekels, traders said.
Some people in Gaza say they want Hamas to target looters.
“There is a campaign against thieves, we see that. If the campaign continues and aid flows, the prices will go down because the stolen aid appears in the markets at high cost,” said Shaban, a displaced Gaza City engineer, now living in Deir Al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip.
After nearly 100 trucks were looted last week Hamas attacked an armed group gathering near a crossing where aid trucks usually enter, opened heavy fire, killing at least 20 of them, according to residents and the Hamas Aqsa television.
Witnesses described another firefight on Saturday when Hamas fighters in two cars chased men suspected of looting who were in another vehicle, resulting in the death of the suspects.
The Hamas official said the force showed that the group’s governance in Gaza continued.
“Hamas as a movement exists, whether someone likes it or not. Hamas as a government exists too, not as strong as it used to be, but it exists and its personnel are trying to serve the people everywhere in the areas of displacement,” he said.
Israel army says soldier killed in combat in Lebanon
- The sergeant was killed during combat in southern Lebanon, the army said
JERUSALEM: The Israeli army said Tuesday that a soldier was killed in south Lebanon, where its troops have battled Hezbollah since late September after a year of cross-border exchanges of fire.
“Sergeant First Class (Reserve) Omer Moshe Gaeldor, aged 30, from Jerusalem, a soldier from the 5,111 Battalion, Golani Brigade, was killed during combat in southern Lebanon,” the army said, adding three other soldiers were wounded.
Three Palestinians killed in Israeli West Bank raid
- The three men were between 24 and 32 years old
- Violence in the West Bank, particularly in the north, has soared since the war in Gaza broke out on October 7 last year
JENIN: Three Palestinians were killed in an Israeli military operation near Jenin in the occupied West Bank on Tuesday, Israeli security forces said.
A joint statement from the army, police and Shin Bet security agency said the three militants died in an exchange of fire in Qabatiya village, where undercover border police attempted to arrest a wanted man.
The Israeli forces came under fire from a building where the suspect, Raed Hanaysha, was hiding, the statement said, before killing him and “two armed terrorists.”
The Israeli army said it seized weapons from the scene, “destroyed two bomb-making labs,” and that its forces were still active in the area.
“There are three bodies of martyrs that are now with the Israeli side, after they killed them,” local governor Kamal Abu Al-Rub said, citing the office in charge of liaising between Israeli and Palestinian authorities in the West Bank.
The Palestinian health ministry said the District Coordination Office had also informed it of the deaths of “three young men shot by Israeli forces near Qabatiya,” which is in the Jenin governorate.
The three men were between 24 and 32 years old, a ministry statement said, identifying Raed Hanaysha as one of the dead.
Israeli security forces said Hanaysha had been involved “in shooting and bombing attacks” recently against the army.
Violence in the West Bank, particularly in the north, has soared since the war in Gaza broke out on October 7 last year.
Israeli troops or settlers have killed at least 771 Palestinians in the West Bank since the start of the Gaza war, according to the Ramallah-based health ministry.
Palestinian attacks on Israelis have also killed at least 24 people in the same period in the West Bank, according to official Israeli figures.
As truce talks progress, Lebanon's army cornered by politics, funding
- Hezbollah, though weakened by Israel's year-long offensive, has long been stronger militarily than the Lebanese Armed Forces
- "The Lebanese army is in a situation that is sensitive and difficult," said retired Lebanese brigadier general Hassan Jouni
BEIRUT: Intensifying efforts for a truce in Lebanon have brought into focus the role of the country's army, which would be expected to keep the south free of Hezbollah weapons but is neither willing nor able to confront the Iran-backed group, seven sources said.
Hezbollah, though weakened by Israel's year-long offensive, has long been stronger militarily than the Lebanese Armed Forces, which have stayed on the sidelines of the conflict even after Israel sent ground forces into south Lebanon on Oct. 1.
While the army will likely be required to deploy thousands of troops to the south after any ceasefire deal, it will need Hezbollah's nod to do so and will avoid confrontations that could trigger internal strife, said the sources - three people close to the army and four diplomats, including from donor countries.
"The Lebanese army is in a situation that is sensitive and difficult. It cannot practice normal missions like the armies of other countries because there is another military force in the country," said retired Lebanese brigadier general Hassan Jouni, referring to Hezbollah, which enjoys a semi-formal military status as a resistance force.
This week, both the Lebanese government and Hezbollah agreed to a U.S. truce proposal, a senior Lebanese official told Reuters, while cautioning Lebanon still had "comments" on the draft. Hezbollah's approval is needed for any ceasefire to take effect, given its arsenal and sway over the Lebanese state.
A second official said exactly how the army would be deployed to the south was still under discussion.
The United States is keen to see the army confront Hezbollah more directly and shared that view with Lebanese officials, said two Western diplomats and one of the sources close to the army.
But Hezbollah's military strength, its shares of Lebanon's cabinet and parliament, and the proportion of army troops who are Shi'ite Muslim, means such a move would risk internal conflict, they said.
Scenes of the army "storming into houses looking for Hezbollah weapons" would lead to a civil war, one of the diplomats said, arguing that the army could instead work alongside U.N. peacekeeping troops to patrol the south without confronting Hezbollah directly.
Neither the army, Hezbollah or Israel's military responded to questions for this story.
Last week, Hezbollah spokesman Mohammad Afif told reporters at a press conference that Hezbollah's relationship with the army remained "strong."
"You will not be able to sever the connection between the army and the resistance (Hezbollah)," he said, addressing those he said were trying to nudge the army to take on the group. Afif was killed in an Israeli strike on Beirut on Sunday.
The White House declined to comment for this story. Asked by Reuters about the role of Lebanon's military, the U.S. State Department said it could not comment on "ongoing, private negotiations".
Lebanese, Israeli and U.S. officials all agree that the cornerstone of a long-lasting truce lies in better implementing United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the last round of conflict between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006.
Resolution 1701 says southern Lebanon should be free of weapons that do not belong to the state, and foresees as many as 15,000 Lebanese troops deployed to the south. It was never fully implemented by either side and Hezbollah was able to arm itself and build up fortifications in the south after 2006.
UNUSED WATCHTOWERS
For months, watchtowers donated by Britain for the army to install in the south have gathered dust in a warehouse near Beirut, awaiting a truce, while diplomats negotiate how they could be erected in a way that would antagonize neither Israel nor Hezbollah, two diplomats and a source familiar with the situation said.
The plight of the watchtowers highlights some of the challenges the army will face with any deployment to the southern border.
The army has long avoided fighting Hezbollah, standing aside when the Shi'ite group and its allies took over Beirut in 2008.
Lebanese troops have also been careful not to clash with Israel, withdrawing from the border as Israeli forces prepared to invade in October. The army has held fire even when Israel has struck them directly, killing 36 Lebanese soldiers so far.
The army's reliance on foreign funding, especially hundreds of millions of dollars from Washington, further complicates its predicament.
Last year, Washington began disbursing cash to fortify troop salaries slashed by Lebanon's financial crisis after army canteens stopped serving meat and the military resorted to offering sightseeing tours in its helicopters to raise cash.
Two of the sources familiar with the army's thinking said the risk of losing U.S. support was a major concern for army chief Joseph Aoun, as was keeping the army unified to deploy once a truce is reached.
"Their priority now is to remain intact for the day after," one of them said.
In response to questions about the army's role in Lebanon, Karoline Leavitt, spokeswoman for the transition team of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who takes office in January, said he would act to restore "peace through strength around the world" when he returns to the White House.
Trump has nominated staunchly pro-Israel figures to influential diplomatic posts, including real estate developer Steve Witkoff as his Middle East envoy. Witkoff did not reply to questions.
One of the sources close to the army said it had no choice but to wait until the conflict ends to assess the state of Hezbollah's military strength before its own role becomes clear.
Founded in 1945, the army's troops are split almost evenly between Sunni Muslims, Shi'ite Muslims and Christians, making it a longstanding symbol of national unity.
Consisting of approximately 40,000 active personnel, the army sees itself primarily as the guarantor of civil peace, a Lebanese security source and the two sources familiar with the army's thinking said, particularly as tensions rise with hundreds of thousands of displaced Shi'ites seeking refuge in primarily Christian, Sunni and Druze areas in the current war.
It has also fought hardline Sunni groups - in Palestinian camps in 2007 and along Lebanon's border with Syria in 2017.
The army fractured along sectarian lines in 1976, in the early years of Lebanon's 15-year civil war, catalyzing Lebanon's descent into militia rule, which ended in 1990 with armed groups relinquishing their weapons - except Hezbollah.
AID DELAYED
Some international aid to the army has already been held up, three more diplomats said.
World powers pledged $200 million to the force in Paris last month on the expectation that it would go towards recruiting new troops, but differences have emerged.
U.S. officials have sought to withhold funds until a ceasefire is agreed to pressure Lebanon to make concessions, while Lebanon says it needs to recruit first to be able to implement a ceasefire, a European diplomat, a senior diplomat and a U.N. source told Reuters.
A U.S. official disputed that Washington was using aid as leverage. The State Department said Washington was committed to supporting the Lebanese state and its sovereign institutions. The White House declined to comment.
However, there is precedent. U.S. lawmakers in 2010 briefly blocked funding for Lebanon's military after a deadly border clash between Lebanon and Israel. In late September, a Republican U.S. lawmaker introduced a bill aiming to halt all financial aid, including for salaries, to the army until the Lebanese state barred Hezbollah as a political party.
Since 2008, ministerial statements have given Hezbollah legitimacy as an armed entity in the country alongside the military, without clearly detailing limits on its role.
"The situation needs internal political understandings to determine the role of Hezbollah in the security and military sphere in Lebanon," said Jouni, the retired brigadier general.
Hamas negotiators ‘not in Doha’ but political office not closed: Qatar
- Qatar hosted the Palestinian militant group since 2012 announced earlier this month it was pausing its mediation efforts
Doha: Hamas negotiators are not in Doha but the Palestinian militant group’s office there has not been permanently closed, Qatar said on Tuesday.
“The leaders of Hamas that are within the negotiating team are now not in Doha,” foreign ministry spokesperson Majed Al-Ansari said, adding: “The decision to... close down the office permanently, is a decision that you will hear about from us directly.”
Qatar, along with the United States and Egypt, had been engaged in months of fruitless negotiations for a truce in the Gaza war, which would include a hostage and prisoner release deal.
But the Gulf state, which has hosted the Palestinian militant group since 2012, with Washington’s blessing, announced earlier this month it was pausing its mediation efforts.
“The mediation process right now... is suspended unless we take a decision to reverse that which is based on the positions of both sides,” Ansari said on Tuesday.
“The office of Hamas in Doha was created for the sake of the mediation process. Obviously, when there is no mediation process, the office itself doesn’t have any function,” he added, declining to confirm whether Qatar had asked Hamas officials to leave.
