Macro Snapshot — China economy to remain in recovery; Morocco GDP growth lower than forecast

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Updated 18 April 2022
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Macro Snapshot — China economy to remain in recovery; Morocco GDP growth lower than forecast

RIYADH: Morocco gross domestic product’s growth is seen lower than previous predictions, China's economy slowed in March, and Spain is to revise its 2022 GDP target. In Russia, the central bank governor flags faster rate cuts, with the Mayor announcing 200,000 jobs at risk as foreign firms leave. China's economy is likely to continue in its recovery trend this year; the country's retail spending fell by 3.5 percent and its industrial output, on the other hand, rose by 5.0 percent.

Morocco’s GDP growth

Morocco’s GDP growth is seen averaging between 1.5 percent and 1.7 percent in 2022, down from the 3.2 percent that was predicted in the budget law, the state news agency MAP reported, citing Prime Minister Aziz Akhannouch.

China Q1 GDP tops forecast

China’s economy slowed in March as consumption, real estate and exports were hit hard, taking the shine off faster-than-expected first-quarter growth numbers and worsening an outlook already weakened by COVID-19 curbs and the Ukraine war.

The biggest near-term challenge for Beijing is the tough new coronavirus rules at a time of heightened geopolitical risks, which have intensified supply and commodity cost pressures. Chinese authorities are therefore walking a tight rope as they try to stimulate growth without endangering price stability.

The GDP expanded by 4.8 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday, beating analysts’ expectations for a 4.4 percent gain and picking up from 4.0 percent in the fourth quarter.

A surprisingly strong start in the first two months of the year improved the headline figures, with GDP up 1.3 percent in January-March in quarter-on-quarter terms, compared with expectations for a 0.6 percent rise and a revised 1.5 percent gain in the previous quarter.

Analysts say April data will likely be worse, with lockdowns in commercial center Shanghai and elsewhere dragging on, prompting some to warn of rising recession risks. 

Moscow mayor says 200,000 jobs at risk as foreign firms leave

Around 200,000 people risk losing their jobs in the Russian capital because foreign companies have suspended operations or decided to leave the Russian market, Moscow Mayor, Sergei Sobyanin, said on Monday.

Moscow authorities are ready to support people who lost their jobs by providing training and temporary and socially-important work, Sobyanin wrote on his blog.

Russia flags faster rate cut

Russia’s Central Bank should be able to lower its key rate faster and create conditions for more affordable loans, Governor Elvira Nabiullina said on Monday.

The central bank more than doubled its key interest rate to 20 percent when Russia was hit by international sanctions, after sending its forces into Ukraine in February, but then cut it this month to 17 percent, flagging a challenging economic environment and a slowdown in inflation. 

Spain to revise down 2022 GDP target

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez (Shutterstock)

Spain will revise down its economic growth target for 2022, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said on Monday in a TV interview.

The government is set to update its bullish 7 percent growth projection for 2022 later this month, to take into account the impact of inflation stoked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“There will be a downward revision of growth figures in Spain, Europe and the world, that's a fact, but that does not mean that Spain will not continue growing and creating jobs,” Sanchez told Antena3 TV station.

The Bank of Spain expects gross domestic product to expand 4.5 percent in 2022.

China’s economy likely to remain in recovery for 2022

China’s economy is likely to stay on its recovery trend this year, and Beijing will step up macro policy implementation to stabilize the outlook, Fu Linghui, a spokesman at China’s statistics bureau, said at a news conference on Monday.

China will be able to contain COVID-19 outbreaks, and can keep consumer price increases under control, Fu said.

China March industrial output rises 

China’s industrial output rose 5 percent in March from a year earlier. That was down from a 7.5 percent increase seen in the first two months of the year, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday.

The reading was stronger than a 4.5 percent increase predicted by analysts in a Reuters poll.

Retail sales in March contracted 3.5 percent year-on-year, amid increasing COVID-19 outbreaks and lockdowns, after increasing 6.7 percent in January and February. The figure was well below expectations for a 1.6 percent decrease.

Fixed asset investment increased 9.3 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, compared with the 8.5 percent increase tipped by the Reuters poll, but down from 12.2 percent growth in the first two months.


Japan, Saudi medical centers unite to revolutionize stem cell therapy

Updated 4 sec ago
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Japan, Saudi medical centers unite to revolutionize stem cell therapy

  • Cytori Therapeutics K.K., has been a pioneer in the stem cell therapy business

TOKYO:  Cytori Therapeutics Japan and the King Abdullah International Medical Research Center have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to strengthen research and training initiatives in the field of cell therapy. 

The signing ceremony took place between Dr. Ahmed Alaskar, executive director of KAIMRC, and Hoshino Yoshihiro, president and CEO of Cytori Therapeutics K.K., during the Riyadh Global Medical Biotechnology Summit 2024.

The partnership underscores the potential of regenerative medicine in treating chronic diseases such as diabetes, liver cirrhosis, critical limb ischemia, chronic wounds, knee osteoarthritis and other aging-related conditions. The aim of combining Cytori’s cutting-edge stem cell technology with KAIMRC’s expertise in translational research is to develop groundbreaking treatments for these critical health issues.

The two organizations will collaborate on fundamental research, clinical trials and other areas of mutual interest, including projects in biomedical R&D, preclinical studies and clinical trials, as well as training and development for staff in health-related and engineering fields.

Cytori Therapeutics K.K., has been a pioneer in the stem cell therapy business, specializing in cell therapy services and the development of adipose-derived regenerative cells from human subcutaneous fat tissues for therapeutic use. The company also develops, manufactures, and exports medical devices. 


Oil Updates – prices little changed as market weighs mixed drivers

Updated 5 min 17 sec ago
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Oil Updates – prices little changed as market weighs mixed drivers

SINGAPORE: Oil prices held steady for a second day on Wednesday as concerns about escalating hostilities in the Ukraine war potentially disrupting oil supply from Russia and signs of growing Chinese crude imports offset data showing US crude stocks rising.

Brent crude futures dipped 5 cents to $73.26 a barrel by 8:41 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures was flat at $69.39 per barrel.

The escalating war between major oil producer Russia and Ukraine has kept a floor under the market this week.

“We may expect (Brent) oil prices to stay supported above the $70 level for now, as market participants continue to monitor the geopolitical developments,” said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG.

On Tuesday, Ukraine used US ATACMS missiles to strike Russian territory for the first time, Moscow said. Russian President Vladimir Putin lowered the bar for a possible nuclear attack.

“This marks a renewed build up in tensions in the Russia-Ukraine war and brings back into focus the risk of supply disruptions in the oil market,” ANZ analysts said in a note to clients.

On the demand side, US crude oil stocks rose by 4.75 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 15, market sources said on Tuesday, citing American Petroleum Institute figures.

That was a bigger build than the 100,000 barrel increase analysts polled by Reuters were expecting.

Gasoline inventories, however, fell by 2.48 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations for a 900,000-barrel increase.

Distillate stocks also fell, shedding 688,000 barrels last week, the sources said.

Official government data is due later on Wednesday.

In a boost to oil price sentiment, there were signs that China, the world’s largest crude importer, may have stepped up oil purchases this month after a period of weak imports.

Data from vessel tracker Kpler showed China’s crude imports are on track to end November at or close to record highs, an analyst told Reuters.

Weak imports by China so far this year have pulled down oil prices, with Brent sinking 20 percent from its April peak of more than $92 a barrel.


Saudi Arabia raises $910m in November sukuk offering 

Updated 23 min 38 sec ago
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Saudi Arabia raises $910m in November sukuk offering 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s National Debt Management Center has completed its riyal-denominated sukuk issuance for November, raising SR3.41 billion ($910 million), a 28.19 percent year-on-year increase. 

In October, the Kingdom issued sukuk worth SR7.83 billion, while the figures for September and August were SR2.6 billion and SR6.01 billion, respectively.  

Sukuk, also known as Islamic bonds, are Shariah-compliant debt products that allow investors to gain partial ownership of an issuer’s assets until maturity. 

Saudi Arabia’s consistent sukuk issuances align with a report released by Moody’s in September, which stated that the global markets for these Islamic bonds are expected to remain strong in 2024.  

The report also projected that the issuance of Shariah-compliant bonds could reach between $200 billion and $210 billion this year, up from just under $200 billion in 2023. 

According to a statement by the NDMC, the November sukuk issuance was divided into five tranches. The first tranche, valued at SR2.52 billion, is set to mature in 2029. 

The second tranche was valued at SR434 million and will mature in 2031, while the third tranche amounted to SR137 million, with a maturity date in 2034. 

NDMC stated that the fourth tranche, sized at SR10 million, is scheduled to mature in 2036. The fifth tranche, valued at SR310 million, will mature in 2039. 

A report by Fitch Ratings in October highlighted that sukuk issuances are on the rise, driven by improving financing conditions following the US Federal Reserve’s rate cuts to 5 percent in September. 

Fitch noted that global sukuk outstanding reached $900 billion by the end of the third quarter of 2024, an 8.5 percent increase compared to the same period in 2023.  

The report further projected that interest rates could decline to 4.5 percent by the end of 2024 and 3.5 percent in 2025, likely boosting sukuk issuances in the short term. 

In August, Fitch reported that the UK remains a significant hub for Islamic finance, with the London Stock Exchange ranking as the third-largest listing venue for US dollar sukuk globally. 

Saudi Arabia’s continued momentum in sukuk issuances reflects its commitment to developing the Islamic finance market as a core component of its Vision 2030 economic diversification strategy.


Developing nations push for action on COP29 financing shortfalls

Updated 19 November 2024
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Developing nations push for action on COP29 financing shortfalls

RIYADH: Developed nations are facing growing pressure at COP29 to honor their climate finance commitments, as developing countries push for action to address the severe shortfalls in adaptation funding and the escalating environmental challenges they face.

The ongoing dispute centers around how much support developed nations will provide to poorer countries in their efforts to combat the impacts of climate change.

Representatives from vulnerable nations have emphasized the urgent need for concrete financial commitments, highlighting the widening gaps in adaptation funding.

Financing gaps undermine efforts

Kenya called for an end to the adaptation finance gap, urging increased financial flows to meet the continent’s needs. “Developing countries are not receiving the resources they need,” said Kenya’s representative. “Africa’s adaptation needs are the highest globally, estimated at $845 billion between 2020 and 2035, yet we receive less than a quarter of that annually.”

Bangladesh echoed these concerns, revealing a stark $5.5 billion annual shortfall in funding for resilience projects. “This gap must be filled through grant-based and external finance,” said Bangladesh’s representative.

Several developed nations have outlined their efforts to scale up adaptation financing. Germany highlighted that 30 percent of the EU’s current seven-year budget is allocated to climate-related initiatives, including $30 billion for nationally determined contributions and climate goals, and $12 billion for public climate adaptation finance.

France pledged €2 billion annually by 2025 for adaptation in developing countries, exceeding its previous commitments. Canada reported progress toward its goal of doubling adaptation finance by 2025, as per the Glasgow Climate Pact, but acknowledged the need for more expansive action. “Public finance alone won’t suffice,” said Canada’s representative. “We need coordinated global efforts, innovative instruments, and stronger policy signals to ramp up climate-resilient investments,” the representative continued.

UAE calls for scaling up adaptation finance

“The outcome of the first global stocktake under the UAE consensus underscores a stark reality: we are not on track to meet the adaptation needs of developing countries,” said the UAE’s representative. “Climate change disproportionately affects vulnerable communities who have contributed the least to global emissions. Adaptation is not a choice, but a necessity,” he continued.

The UAE underscored the widening adaptation finance gap, which is estimated to reach hundreds of billions of dollars annually by 2030.

“A critical component of COP28 was the UAE framework for global climate resilience, establishing targets for adaptation planning and implementation,” the representative noted. The UAE consensus calls for all parties to have national adaptation plans in place by 2025, with tangible progress on implementation by 2030.

“We urge developed countries to significantly scale up adaptation finance beyond the doubling committed at COP26,” the UAE added.

“This scaling up is crucial to meet the urgent and growing needs of developing countries.”

Rejecting allegations of involvement in the Sudanese conflict, the UAE reaffirmed its commitment to humanitarian aid and efforts to support a legitimate, civilian-led government in Sudan.

“We reject these baseless claims and emphasize our continued support for de-escalation, ceasefires, and aiding Sudanese civilians,” said the representative.

Jordan called for “predictable and transparent commitments” and expedited disbursements, emphasizing the challenges faced by water-scarce nations grappling with severe droughts.

Sudan urged for technological transfer and funding to recover from devastating floods, which caused $48 million in damages this year. Palestine raised concerns about barriers to accessing climate funds, citing “non-technical issues” that prevent direct support despite eligibility.

Kazakhstan stressed the importance of concessional financing, saying, “We need mechanisms that are accessible and predictable to address vulnerabilities and ensure funds flow directly to communities.”

Developing countries call for urgent action

“Adaptation is not a choice but a necessity,” reiterated the UAE representative, highlighting the disproportionate burden borne by vulnerable nations.

Qatar called for creative solutions to close the adaptation finance gap, urging developed countries to double financial support and focus on the implementation phases to maximize impact.

China demanded that developed countries clarify timelines for doubling adaptation financing, stating, “They must deliver on their commitments and prioritize vulnerable nations.”

As COP29 unfolds, the debate over adaptation financing underscores the urgent need to bridge the gap between pledges and tangible action. The world’s most vulnerable communities are watching closely, demanding that words translate into real solutions.


GAMI showcases achievements at maritime forum in Dhahran

Updated 19 November 2024
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GAMI showcases achievements at maritime forum in Dhahran

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s General Authority for Military Industries highlighted its achievements in local military ship and boat manufacturing, as well as maintenance capabilities, at the 3rd International Saudi Maritime Forum.

In a press statement, GAMI noted that its pavilion also showcased specialized expertise in hull construction and system integration. Established in 2017, GAMI is tasked with regulating, monitoring, enabling, and licensing the Kingdom's military and security industries.

As part of its mission to strengthen the defense sector, GAMI aims to support the growth of Saudi Arabia's military industries and contribute to the country's economic development. The authority also plays a key role in achieving Saudi Vision 2030 by aiming to localize more than 50 percent of government defense spending by 2030.

The GAMI pavilion, inaugurated by Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al-Hammad, GAMI’s deputy governor for strategic planning and execution, was presented to over 55 national and international organizations from 22 countries, including military specialists and academics from both Saudi Arabia and abroad.

The 3rd Saudi International Maritime Forum, organized by the Royal Saudi Naval Forces, kicked off on Nov. 19 in Dhahran and will run through Nov. 21.

The forum is focusing on key developments in regional and international maritime security, while also highlighting the latest technologies, equipment, and maritime systems at both local and global levels.