IMF expects Saudi economy to grow more than double in 2022
Updated 21 April 2022
Arab News
RIYADH:The International Monetary Fund expects Saudi economy to grow by more than double in 2022 as oil prices are hitting multi-year high.
The Fund, known as IMF, has raised its forecast for the growth of the Saudi GDP by 2.8 percent from last time to 7.6 percent this year.
In its World Economic Outlook published today, the IMF expects the GDP to fall to 3.6 percent in 2023, after raising this up from an earlier estimate of 2.8 percent.
“We raised our estimates of the growth rate of the Saudi economy by 2.8 percentage points, which reflects the increase in oil production in accordance with the OPEC+ agreement, in conjunction with the more non-oil output growth exceeding expectations,” the report pointed out.
The IMF also forecasted Saudi inflation to be around 2.5 percent in 2022 down from last year, a trend that will continue in 2023 as well.
War-induced commodity price increases and broadening price pressures have led to 2022 inflation projections of 5.7 percent in advanced economies and 8.7 percent in emerging market and developing economies — 1.8 and 2.8 percentage points higher than projected last January, the report pointed out.
Supply chain reforms, demographic shifts among key investment drivers: Al-Falih
Updated 18 sec ago
Nirmal Narayanan
RIYADH: Sustainability, technological disruption, and supply chain decentralization are redefining global investment dynamics, Saudi Arabia’s investment minister said at an event in Riyadh.
Speaking at the 28th World Investment Conference in Riyadh, Khalid Al-Falih noted that while the global economy is recovering from headwinds, challenges such as geopolitical tensions continue to create instability.
Running from Nov. 25 to 27, WIC 2024 is focused on digital transformation and sustainable growth, and unites global leaders to discuss investment policies shaping future economies.
Addressing attendees, Al-Falih said: “There are four major trends that will play a crucial role in shaping the global investment landscape. The first is the importance of investment in sustainability. The second is the unprecedented technological disruption unfolding in front of our own eyes.”
He added: “The third global trend is the steady reconfiguration of the global supply chain, with the decentralization of supply chains creating hubs in emerging regions that offer new opportunities for investments, infrastructure, and new production capacity.”
According to the minister, the fourth global trend is demographics, where entities will invest money where talent is available and consumption is high.
Al-Falih acknowledged both opportunities and challenges for global investment, citing issues such as geopolitical instability and trade barriers but emphasized progress in inflation containment, capital market growth, and consumer confidence restoration.
“We are confronted with crosswinds to global investments — driven forward on one hand by the tech revolution, booming stock markets, and the onset of promising monetary policies, while constrained on the other hand by geopolitical instabilities, trade barriers, and talent and skill shortages,” said Al-Falih.
“Let me remind all of us that investments require sound and deliberate stewardship,” he said.
Saudi Arabia’s investment minister Khalid Al-Falih. Screenshot
Saudi Arabia has made strides under Vision 2030, with gross domestic product up 70 percent to $1.1 trillion, with half of that driven by non-oil activities.
Al-Falih said that foreign direct investment flows have tripled, and over 550 international firms have established regional headquarters in the Kingdom, surpassing targets.
This came as the Kingdom offered businesses various incentives if they relocated their Middle East-bases to Riyadh, including a 30-year exemption from corporate income tax and access to discounts and support services.
In November, US-based Morgan Stanley secured approval to establish its regional headquarters in Saudi Arabia, followed by Citi Group.
The Kingdom also launched the premium residency program to welcome international investors and talented people. “In the last three years alone, 1,200 investors have been awarded these premium residencies, allowing them to be treated as if they are in their own countries,” said Khalid Al-Falih.
Global appreciation
At the conference’s opening ceremony, Nivruti Rai, managing director and CEO of Invest India and president of the World Association of Investment Promotion Agencies, lauded Saudi Arabia’s diversification efforts.
“Vision 2030 entails growth through technology, growth through greenification, and growth that also enables tourism, including spiritual tourism,” said Rai.
She added: “In 1938, Saudi Arabia discovered oil. I am so happy that today we are dreaming of NEOM, a smart city built on technology. To enable that, the one way — and only way — is to unite and ignite the passion that drives digital transformation and the passion that harnesses sustainability.”
Nivruti Rai, managing director and CEO of Invest India. Screenshot
Rai also highlighted the importance of a green future, noting the need for a mix of energy sources to sustain growth.
“We all have to work toward greenification, because the world knows that power is directly proportional to GDP. The input to growth is power,” she said.
Emergence of new markets
James Zhan, chair and executive director of the World Investment Conference, emphasized the transformative trends shaping the global economy.
“We are now witnessing the emergence of new markets, new funding sources, new business models, and new industries. All this offers immense potential for global investment promotion and business facilitation,” said Zhan.
WAIPA’s executive director and CEO, Ismail Ersahin, stressed the significance of WIC in fostering collaboration and actionable outcomes.
“World Investment Conference is not just a place where we share our experiences, but now we are also addressing investors and telling them, ‘Here are the opportunities, so you should participate,’” said Ersahin.
New investment paradigms
In a separate press statement, Ersahin said that WIC 2024 comes at an “important moment in the global economy,” noting that as the international community navigates the nuances of digital transformation and the push for sustainable growth, the event serves as an essential platform for leaders to explore new investment paradigms shaping the future.
He added: “The need for investment promotion agencies to drive economic development and foster foreign direct investment has never been more critical. By bringing together key global stakeholders in international development and investment, we are creating an environment where strategic partnerships and actionable solutions can flourish.”
The conference is hosted by Invest Saudi, the national investment promotion brand overseen by the Saudi Investment Promotion Authority, and focuses on scaling investment opportunities while offering participants practical tools and connections to drive impactful outcomes.
Aggregate loan-to-deposit ratio decreased by 0.3 percentage points
Updated 5 min 21 sec ago
Nour El-Shaeri
RIYADH: The UAE banking sector recorded a 3.9 percent quarterly increase in deposits during the third quarter, driven primarily by a 5.6 percent rise in time deposits, according to a recent report. This solid growth in deposits outpaced the 3.5 percent rise in loans and advances over the same period.
Retail borrowing was the key driver behind the loan growth, with retail lending increasing by 4.9 percent quarter on quarter.
However, profitability for the UAE’s leading banks declined, as impairment charges surged by 124.9 percent quarter on quarter, reaching 2.9 billion dirhams ($789.5 million), according to Alvarez & Marsal, a global professional services firm.
This sharp increase in impairments led to a 5.5 percent drop in net income, causing a contraction in return on equity by 223 basis points and a decline in return on assets by 16 basis points.
Asad Ahmed, managing director of financial services at Alvarez & Marsal, warned that the sector faces challenges amid shifting monetary policies and economic conditions.
“While lending growth continues, the sector faces challenges with higher impairment charges and cost efficiencies. The focus on digitalization and strategic cost management will be crucial for sustaining profitability and capital strength in the coming quarters,” Ahmed said.
He added: “As anticipated, the Central Bank of the UAE cut its benchmark interest rate by 50bps in Q3’24 to 4.9 percent, in line with the US Fed. Despite some headwinds, cues from management guidance indicate optimism on lending growth momentum to continue while impairments take a cautious outlook.”
The aggregate loan-to-deposit ratio decreased by 0.3 percentage points quarter on quarter, settling at 75.5 percent, as deposit growth outpaced loan growth.
Despite these challenges, total operating income grew by 3.5 percent quarter on quarter, driven by a 7.4 percent increase in non-interest income and an 11.8 percent rise in other operating income. Net interest income also saw a modest 1.5 percent increase during the same period.
Cost-efficiency metrics worsened during the quarter, with six out of the top 10 banks reporting higher operating expenses. The cost-to-income ratio rose by 99 basis points to 29 percent, as operating expenses increased by 7.1 percent, outpacing the 3.5 percent growth in operating income.
The cost of risk also worsened, rising by 30 basis points quarter on quarter to 0.6 percent. This marked a reversal from the second quarter, when the cost of risk had reached a multi-year low of 0.3 percent.
Total impairments rose significantly to 2.9 billion dirhams in the third quarter, compared to 1.3 billion dirhams in the second quarter.
Despite these challenges, the sector’s overall capital adequacy ratio remained strong at 17.9 percent, reflecting an increase of 0.37 percentage points quarter on quarter.
Investment strategies must align with SDGs to drive sustainable global growth, WIC hears
Updated 43 min 49 sec ago
Miguel Hadchity
RIYADH: Investment strategies must be compatible with sustainable development goals to ensure economically viable and environmentally responsible global growth, a top official said at the World Investment Conference.
Speaking on the first day of the Riyad-based event, James Zhan, chair of the WIC executive board, said reforming the global financial system should be a priority alongside helping to deliver social and environmental reform.
The 28th WIC is being held from Nov. 25 to 27, and will see global stakeholders gather to explore investment trends and how best to foster sustainable development.
During a panel discussion titled “Impact Maximization: Leveraging Trade and Investment for Growth and Development,” Zhan said: “We need to embed investment strategies into the SDG implementation plans. We need to transform these international investment regimes into a kind of SDG promotion instrument.”
The SDGs are a set of 17 global objectives established by the UN to address pressing social, economic, and environmental challenges, aiming to achieve a sustainable and equitable future by 2030.
Zhan also called for transforming international investment: “We need to be practicing incentives for investment on the ground.”
Ibrahim Al-Mubarak, assistant minister of investment and CEO of the Saudi Investment Promotion Authority, outlined the Kingdom’s focused approach to investment.
“Our investment strategy focuses on quality, FDI. That’s a very big word. So, what I like to call it is smart capital,” he said.
Al-Mubarak also emphasized Saudi Arabia’s reform journey under Vision 2030, saying: “Since the launch of Vision 2030, we have set a very ambitious reform agenda. That reform agenda comes in various ways, be it in the reform of existing laws, launching new laws, removing subsidies.”
These reforms aim to bolster the Kingdom’s investment environment, which has already been recognized as the 16th most competitive economy globally, according to the IMD’s World Competitiveness Index.
Al-Mubarak highlighted the significance of comprehensive and consistent regulatory reforms in enhancing investment appeal.
One measure of this is the success of Saudi Arabia’s Regional Headquarters Program, which came into effect in January and encouraged multinational companies to set up regional offices in Riyadh.
“We already have exceeded our target by having 550 regional headquarters companies here. Our location, our infrastructure, our youth are enabling us to achieve those (goals), but they have to be clubbed with positive, unified, consistent regulatory reform agenda,” Al-Mubarak said.
The assistant minister highlighted that attracting investments requires groundwork, adding: “The promotion piece of investment is one thing, but the attraction is a much tougher one because it requires a lot more reforms and work on the ground, on the infrastructure, on the policies, on the procedures.”
Chairman of the Berlin Global Dialogue and Professor of Economics at the European School of Management and Technology Lars-Hendrik Roller called for a broader perspective on global investments.
“The world is changing, and now I think we need to look eye level (at) Africa and other continents as well,” he said.
He also cautioned about the interplay of foreign policy and national security with economic agendas, adding: “What is now overarching more and more (is) foreign policy and economic policy, national security issues. And I think we have to be very careful with that.”
Roller pointed out the distorting effects of subsidies on global markets and stressed the urgency of private investments in the green economy, saying: “We’re not going to solve the climate crisis unless we generate a lot more private investment in the green economy.”
Saudi Arabia unveils world’s largest food park in Jeddah, eyes $5.3bn in investments
Updated 25 November 2024
MOHAMMED AL-KINANI
JEDDAH: Saudi Arabia has officially launched the Jeddah Food Cluster, a major project aimed at transforming the city into a global business hub with an investment target of SR20 billion ($5.3 billion).
Spanning 11 million sq. meters, the cluster is now recognized by Guinness World Records as the largest food park in the world by area. The development is expected to create over 43,000 jobs, driving both local and national economic growth.
The opening ceremony, held on Nov. 24, was led by Prince Saud bin Mishal, deputy governor of Makkah, under the patronage of Prince Khaled Al-Faisal, governor of the Makkah region. It was attended by high-ranking officials, including Saudi Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Alkhorayef.
The inauguration of the cluster aligns with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, which seeks to strengthen food security, achieve self-sufficiency, develop food value chains, and establish the Kingdom as a regional hub for attracting both domestic and international investment in the food sector.
Located in Jeddah’s Second and Third Industrial Cities, the Jeddah Food Cluster is part of a larger industrial network in the Makkah region, which also includes industrial cities in Makkah and Taif. This region, which spans more than 50 million sq. meters, hosts over 2,000 industrial facilities specializing in sectors such as food production, pharmaceuticals, metals, and chemicals. The new food cluster is designed to enhance industrial productivity through cutting-edge infrastructure and strategic investments in key enablers.
Currently, the cluster houses 124 operational factories with investments totaling SR4.4 billion. These factories are estimated to produce around 4 million tonnes of goods annually across 10 industrial sectors and provide jobs for over 7,000 workers.
It also features 76 ready-to-use factories that comply with Saudi Food and Drug Authority standards. Additionally, the cluster has built a central laboratory to improve food quality and safety, as well as over 134,000 sq. meters of shared cold and dry storage facilities. By concentrating suppliers in one location, the cluster aims to create a sustainable, efficient supply chain.
The economic impact of the Jeddah Food Cluster is expected to be substantial, with national exports projected to increase by SR8 billion. The development is also anticipated to create thousands of job opportunities, particularly in the industrial and logistics sectors, and contribute approximately SR7 billion to Saudi Arabia’s GDP over the next decade. This aligns with the broader objectives of Saudi Arabia’s National Industrial Strategy and the National Industrial Development and Logistics Program, which aim to foster economic diversification and sustainable growth.
At the ceremony, MODON, the Saudi Authority for Industrial Cities and Technology Zones, announced that the Jeddah Food Cluster had achieved a significant milestone, receiving recognition from a global organization. Prince Saud also toured an exhibition showcasing the involvement of private companies and government entities in the food supply chain. This was followed by the presentation of the global recognition certificate.
Several memorandums of understanding and agreements were signed during the event. These partnerships, which include collaborations with Umm Al-Qura University, the National Academy for Industry, and Halal Products Development Co., focus on developing specialized training programs, improving food safety, and promoting quality control within the food industry.
Alkhorayef, in his speech, emphasized that the Jeddah Food Cluster represents more than just an industrial project—it is a key element in the Kingdom’s broader strategy for sustainable economic growth.
“Through this cluster, we aim to leverage the ministry’s capabilities to serve Jeddah, the Kingdom’s economic hub, and a prime investment destination,” he said.
He also highlighted the importance of connecting manufacturers, suppliers, and service providers to boost innovation and competitiveness, as well as to create new job opportunities, particularly for Saudi youth.
On the sidelines of the event, a panel discussion titled “The Future of Global Food Supply Chain Resilience for Innovation and Sustainability” was held, featuring industry leaders such as Abdullah bin Nasser Al-Badr, CEO of Almarai, Betty Ka, director of supply chain and delivery at the UN World Food Program, and Fabio Maia de Oliveira, general investment director at JBS Saudi Arabia. The panel explored strategies for building resilient and sustainable global food supply chains.
The launch of the Jeddah Food Cluster marks a significant step in Saudi Arabia’s ongoing efforts to diversify its economy and strengthen its position as a global leader in the food industry.
Oil Updates – prices ease but remain near 2-week highs on Russia, Iran tensions
Updated 25 November 2024
Reuters
SINGAPORE: Oil prices retreated on Monday following 6 percent gains last week, but remained near two-week highs as geopolitical tensions grew between Western powers and major oil producers Russia and Iran, raising risks of supply disruption.
Brent crude futures slipped 26 cents, or 0.35 percent, to $74.91 a barrel by 7:40 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $70.97 a barrel, down 27 cents, or 0.38 percent.
Both contracts last week notched their biggest weekly gains since late September to reach their highest settlement levels since Nov. 7 after Russia fired a hypersonic missile at Ukraine in a warning to the US and UK following strikes by Kyiv on Russia using US and British weapons.
“Oil prices are starting the new week with some slight cool-off as market participants await more cues from geopolitical developments and the Fed’s policy outlook to set the tone,” said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG.
“Tensions between Ukraine and Russia have edged up a notch lately, leading to some pricing for the risks of a wider escalation potentially impacting oil supplies.”
As both Ukraine and Russia vie to gain some leverage ahead of any upcoming negotiations under a Trump administration, the tensions may likely persist into the year-end, keeping Brent prices supported around $70-$80, Yeap added.
In addition, Iran reacted to a resolution passed by the UN nuclear watchdog on Thursday by ordering measures such as activating various new and advanced centrifuges used in enriching uranium.
“The IAEA censure and Iran’s response heightens the likelihood that Trump will look to enforce sanctions against Iran’s oil exports when he comes into power,” Vivek Dhar, a commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said in a note.
Enforced sanctions could sideline about 1 million barrels per day of Iran’s oil exports, about 1 percent of global oil supply, he said.
The Iranian foreign ministry said on Sunday that it will hold talks about its disputed nuclear program with three European powers on Nov. 29.
“Markets are concerned not only about damage to oil ports and infrastructure, but also the possibility of war contagion and involvement of more countries,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.
Investors were also focused on rising crude oil demand at China and India, the world’s top and third-largest importers, respectively.
China’s crude imports rebounded in November as lower prices drew stockpiling demand while Indian refiners increased crude throughput by 3 percent on year to 5.04 million bpd in October, buoyed by fuel exports.
For the week, traders will be eyeing US personal consumption expenditures data, due on Wednesday, as that will likely inform the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting scheduled for Dec. 17-18, Sachdeva said.
