STOCKHOLM: To join or not to join? The NATO question is coming to a head this week in Finland and Sweden where Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shattered the long-held belief that remaining outside the military alliance was the best way to avoid trouble with their giant neighbor.
If Finland’s president and the governing Social Democrats in both countries come out in favor of accession in the next few days, NATO could soon add two members right on Russia’s doorstep.
That would be a historic development for the two Nordic countries: Sweden has avoided military alliances for more than 200 years, while Finland adopted neutrality after being defeated by the Soviet Union in World War II.
NATO membership was never seriously considered in Stockholm and Helsinki until Russian forces attacked Ukraine on Feb. 24. Virtually overnight, the conversation in both capitals shifted from “Why should we join?” to “How long does it take?”
Along with hard-nosed Ukrainian resistance and wide-ranging Western sanctions, it’s one of the most significant ways in which the invasion appears to have backfired on Russian President Vladimir Putin.
If Finland and Sweden join the alliance, Russia would find itself completely surrounded by NATO countries in the Baltic Sea and the Arctic.
“There is no going back to the status quo before the invasion,” said Heli Hautala, a Finnish diplomat previously posted to Moscow and a research fellow at the Center for a New American Security in Washington.
Finnish President Sauli Niinisto, the Western leader who appeared to have the best rapport with Putin before the Ukraine war, is expected to announce his stance on NATO membership on Thursday. The governing Social Democratic parties in both countries are set to present their positions this weekend.
If their answer is “yes,” there would be robust majorities in both parliaments for NATO membership, paving the way for formal application procedures to begin right away.
The Finnish Social Democrats led by Prime Minister Sanna Marin are likely to join other parties in Finland in endorsing a NATO application. The situation in Sweden isn’t as clear.
The Swedish Social Democrats have always been staunchly committed to nonalignment, but party leader and Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson has said there’s a clear “before and after Feb. 24.”
The party’s women’s faction, led by Climate and Environment Minister Annika Strandhall, has come out against NATO membership.
“We believe that our interests are best served by being militarily nonaligned,” Strandhall told Swedish broadcaster TV4. “Traditionally, Sweden has been a strong voice for peace and disarmament.”
Neither Finland nor Sweden is planning a referendum, fearing it could become a prime target of Russian interference.
Sweden and Finland have sought — and received — assurances of support from the US and other NATO members in the application period should they seek membership.
Both countries feel they would be vulnerable in the interim, before they’re covered by the alliance’s one-for-all, all-for-one security guarantees.
The Kremlin has warned of “military and political repercussions” if the Swedes and Finns decide to join NATO.
Dmitry Medvedev, the former Russian president who is deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, said last month it would force Moscow to strengthen its military presence in the Baltic region.
However, analysts say military action against the Nordic countries appears unlikely, given how bogged down Russian forces are in Ukraine.
Many of the Russian troops stationed near the 1,300-kilometer (830-mile) border with Finland were sent to Ukraine and have suffered “significant losses” there, Hautala said.
She said potential Russian countermeasures could include moving weapons systems closer to Finland, disinformation campaigns, cyberattacks, economic countermoves and steering migration toward the Russian-Finnish border, similar to what happened on Poland’s frontier with Belarus last year.
There are signs that Russia already has increased its focus on Sweden and Finland, with several airspace violations by Russian military aircraft reported in recent weeks and an apparent campaign in Moscow with posters depicting famous Swedes as Nazi sympathizers. Putin used similar tactics against Ukraine’s leaders before launching what the Kremlin called its “special military operation.”
After remaining firmly against membership for decades, public opinion in both countries shifted rapidly this year. Polls show more than 70 percent of Finns and about 50 percent of Swedes now favor joining.
The shocking scenes playing out in Ukraine made Finns draw the conclusion that “this could happen to us,” said Charly Salonius-Pasternak, a researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.
During the Cold War, Finland stayed away from NATO to avoid provoking the Soviet Union, while Sweden already had a tradition of neutrality dating to the end of the Napoleonic Wars. But both countries built up robust conscription-based armed forces to counter any Soviet threat. Sweden even had a nuclear weapons program but scrapped it in the 1960s.
The threat of a conflict flared up in October 1981 when a Soviet submarine ran aground off the coast of southwestern Sweden. Eventually the sub was tugged back out to sea, ending a tense standoff between Swedish forces and a Soviet rescue fleet.
As Russia’s military power declined in the 1990s, Finland kept its guard high, while Sweden, considering a conflict with Russia increasingly unlikely, downsized its military and shifted its focus from territorial defense toward peacekeeping missions in faraway conflict zones.
Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 prompted the Swedes to reassess the security situation. They reintroduced conscription and started rebuilding defensive capabilities, including on the strategically important Baltic Sea island of Gotland.
Defense analysts say Finland and Sweden have modern and competent armed forces that would significantly boost NATO’s capabilities in Northern Europe. Finnish and Swedish forces train so often with NATO that they are essentially interoperable.
Adding new members typically takes months, because those decisions need to be ratified by all 30 NATO members. But in the case of Finland and Sweden, the accession process could be done “in a couple of weeks,” according to a NATO official who briefed reporters on condition that he not be identified because no application has been made by the two countries.
“These are not normal times,” he said.
Crucial NATO decisions expected in Finland, Sweden this week
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Crucial NATO decisions expected in Finland, Sweden this week
- Sweden has avoided military alliances for more than 200 years
- Finland adopted neutrality after being defeated by the Soviet Union in World War II
Norway, World Wide Fund for Nature square off in court over deep sea mining
- Norway could become one of the first countries to authorize seabed mining, arguing the importance of not relying on China for minerals essential for renewable technology
- WWF-Norway is also calling on the Norwegian government to stop giving public support to mining companies for the exploration phase and to allocate these funds to independent research institutions
OSLO: The World Wide Fund for Nature’s (WWF) Norwegian chapter will have its day in court Thursday, after it sued Norway for opening up its seabed to mining before performing sufficient impact studies.
Already Western Europe’s largest oil and gas producer, Norway could become one of the first countries to authorize seabed mining, arguing the importance of not relying on China for minerals essential for renewable technology.
While deep-sea mining is contentious due to its potential impact on vulnerable marine ecosystems, Norway’s parliament in January formally gave its green light to open up parts of its seabed to exploration.
“We believe the government is violating Norwegian law by now opening up for a new and potentially destructive industry without adequately assessing the consequences,” Karoline Andaur, CEO of WWF-Norway, said in a statement.
Norway “must halt the rushed process, must actively support a national and global moratorium — a temporary ban on seabed mining until there is sufficient knowledge,” Andaur said in an online meeting earlier in November.
With their lawsuit, WWF-Norway is also calling on the Norwegian government to stop giving public support to mining companies for the exploration phase and to allocate these funds to independent research institutions.
That would help “to close the many knowledge gaps about marine life,” Andaur said.
The trial will run until December 5.
On April 12, Norway’s Ministry of Energy announced that it was opening up an area of the Norwegian Sea and Greenland Sea to exploration, with the aim of awarding the first licenses in the first half of 2025.
Within the area, which is the size of the United Kingdom, it has designated locations covering 38 percent of the area suitable for exploration for a first licensing round.
“Before any exploitation can begin, it has to be shown that the proposed exploitation can take place in a sustainable and responsible manner,” Astrid Bergmal, state secretary at the energy ministry, told AFP in an email.
The first projects will also have to be approved by parliament, Bergmal added.
“The first phase will consist of mapping and exploration, which has little environmental impact,” she said.
But critics see this stage as a first step toward exploitation.
According to several NGOs, opening up the seabed poses an additional threat to an ecosystem that is little-known and has already been weakened by global warming.
Possible dangers include the destruction of marine habitats and organisms, noise and light pollution, as well as the risk of chemical leaks from machines and species being displaced.
Norwegian authorities meanwhile stress that by allowing the prospecting they want to fill in the gaps in knowledge.
In early 2023, the Norwegian Offshore Directorate published a report concluding that “substantial resources are in place on the seabed” including minerals such as copper, zinc and cobalt.
Thousands left queuing to vote in Namibia after scheduled polls close
- The vote could usher in the desert nation’s first woman leader even as her party, the ruling SWAPO, faces the strongest challenge yet to its 34-year grip on power
- SWAPO’s candidate and current vice president, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, is being challenged by IPC leader Panduleni Itula, a former dentist and lawyer
WHINDHOEK: Logistical issues on Wednesday left thousands of Namibians waiting in queues to vote in pivotal presidential and legislative elections, some for up to 12 hours, with polling stations staying open hours later than planned.
The vote could usher in the desert nation’s first woman leader even as her party, the ruling South West Africa People’s Organization (SWAPO) faces the strongest challenge yet to its 34-year grip on power.
Some voters told AFP they queued all day, blaming technical problems that included issues with voter identification tablets and insufficient ballot papers.
“It’s absolutely disappointing,” said Reagan Cooper, a 43-year-old farmer among the hundred or so voters outside the town hall polling station in the capital Windhoek.
“The voters have turned out, but the electoral commission has failed us,” Cooper told AFP.
In the face of criticism from all the political parties, including SWAPO, the Electoral Commission of Namibia extended voting hours for “no specified time,” according to Windhoek region ECN head Rakondjerua Kavari.
Voting was halted for an hour at the Windhoek town hall site due to a lack of ballots, with applause welcoming the delivery of more waking sleepy, seated voters around 11:30 pm.
The last voter there cast his ballot more than four hours after the scheduled closing time — 9:00 p.m. (1900 GMT) — and vote counting then began almost immediately.
According to Namibia’s electoral law, those in queues before polls are scheduled to close should be allowed to vote.
Petrus Shaama, chief officer of the ECN, said it was obligated to ensure voters could cast a ballot.
But the main opposition party, the Independent Patriots for Change (IPC), blamed the ECN for the long lines and cried foul play.
“We have reason to believe that the ECN is deliberately suppressing voters and deliberately trying to frustrate voters from casting their vote,” said Christine Aochamus of the IPC.
Armed with folding chairs and umbrellas to cope with the slow-moving lines and blazing sun, many Namibians spent half the day waiting to vote.
At one polling station inside the University of Science and Technology in Windhoek, hundreds of people were still in line at 9:00 p.m. despite some having arrived at 6:00 am, an hour before polls opened.
Polling site managers told AFP that problems with tablets used to check voters’ identities using fingerprints included untimely updates, overheating and dead batteries.
SWAPO’s candidate and current vice president, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, was one of the first to vote and called on Namibians “to come out in their numbers.”
An estimated 1.5 million people in the sparsely populated nation were registered to vote.
SWAPO has governed since leading mineral-rich Namibia to independence from South Africa in 1990 but complaints about unemployment and enduring inequalities could force Nandi-Ndaitwah into an unprecedented second round.
IPC leader Panduleni Itula, a former dentist and lawyer, said Wednesday he was optimistic he could “unseat the revolutionary movement.”
Itula, 67, took 29 percent of votes in the 2019 elections, losing to SWAPO leader Hage Geingob with 56 percent. It was a remarkable performance considering Geingob, who died in February, had won almost 87 percent five years before that.
Namibia is a major uranium and diamond exporter but not many of its nearly three million people have benefitted from that wealth.
“There’s a lot of mining activity that goes on in the country, but it doesn’t really translate into improved infrastructure, job opportunities,” said independent political analyst Marisa Lourenco, based in Johannesburg.
“That’s where a lot of the frustration is coming from, (especially) the youth,” she said.
Unemployment among 15- to 34-year-olds is estimated at 46 percent, according to the latest figures from 2018, almost triple the national average.
First-time voter and environmental health student Sophia Varela, 24, told AFP she was “hoping for change” and “jobs for the youth.”
For the first time in Namibia’s recent history, analysts say a second voting round is a somewhat realistic option.
That would take place within 60 days of the announcement of the first round of results due by Saturday.
“The outcome will be tight,” said self-employed Hendry Amupanda, 32, who queued since 9:00 p.m. the night before to cast his ballot.
“I want the country to get better and people to get jobs,” said Amupanda, wearing slippers and equipped with a chair, blanket and snacks.
Marvyn Pescha, a self-employed consultant, said his father was part of SWAPO’s liberation struggle and he was not going to abandon the party.
“But I want SWAPO to be challenged for better policies. Some opportunistic leaders have tarnished the reputation of the party, they misuse it for self-enrichment,” the 50-year-old said.
While lauded for leading Namibia to independence, SWAPO is nervous about its standing after other liberation-era movements in the region have lost favor with young voters.
In the past six months, South Africa’s African National Congress lost its parliamentary majority and the Botswana Democratic Party was ousted after almost six decades in power.
Taiwan holds air, sea drills as China keeps up pressure
China and Taiwan have been ruled separately since 1949, but Beijing considers it part of its territory and has refused to renounce the use of force to bring the island under its control.
Beijing regularly deploys fighter jets, drones and warships around Taiwan, and occasionally balloons, as it keeps up military pressure.
The early morning exercise was aimed at testing “the response and engagement procedures of air defense units,” Taiwan’s Air Force Command said in a statement.
“Various types of aircraft, ships, and air defense missile systems were deployed from 5:00 am to 7:00 am,” the statement said, without providing details.
The last time the Air Force Command held such drills was in June, a month after Taiwan President Lai Ching-te took office.
Taiwan’s defense ministry reported Thursday it had detected two Chinese balloons over waters north of the island.
The balloons were spotted on Wednesday afternoon in two locations about 111 kilometers (69 miles) northwest and 163 kilometers north of Keelung City.
That follows the sighting of a Chinese balloon on Sunday over the same waters.
Along with the two balloons, 13 Chinese military aircraft and seven navy vessels were spotted around Taiwan in the 24 hours to 6:00 am on Thursday, the ministry said.
Taiwan lives under the constant threat of a Chinese invasion and has ramped up defense spending in recent years to strengthen its military capabilities.
The island has a home-grown defense industry but also relies heavily on arms sales from Washington, which is Taiwan’s most important partner and biggest provider of weapons and ammunition.
Taiwan has described the balloons as a form of “grey zone” harassment — a tactic that falls short of an act of war.
LVMH chief Bernard Arnault to testify in France spy trial
- Arnault is not accused of any wrongdoing in the trial after paying a 10 million euro settlement in 2021 to close a criminal probe into LVMH’s role in the case
PARIS: LVMH Chairman and CEO Bernard Arnault is set to testify at a Paris court on Thursday in the trial of France’s former spy chief Bernard Squarcini, a case that has cast light on the lengths to which the world’s biggest luxury group has allegedly gone to protect its image.
Squarcini, who headed France’s counter-intelligence services from 2008 to 2012, was later hired by LVMH as a security consultant, during which time he allegedly illegally collected information on private individuals and violated privacy laws while helping the company fight counterfeits and monitor left-wing activists planning to target the company with protests.
He is also charged with leaking classified information, interfering with justice and peddling influence.
Squarcini’s lawyers did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Arnault is not accused of any wrongdoing in the trial after paying a 10 million euro settlement in 2021 to close a criminal probe into LVMH’s role in the case.
He has said that the recruitment of Squarcini was conducted by Pierre Gode, his longtime right-hand man at LVMH who died in 2018, and that he was unaware of information allegedly collected by Squarcini, according to court documents.
However the two-week trial has thrust the billionaire into the spotlight at a time when his sprawling luxury empire is already navigating a downturn in the industry and a reshuffling of top management.
LVMH paid Squarcini’s consulting firm Kyrnos 2.2 million euros for services including allegedly searching the background of individuals suspected of counterfeiting luxury goods.
He also allegedly monitored Francois Ruffin, a French activist who is currently a politician, and members of his left-wing publication Fakir as they planned to disrupt an LVMH shareholder meeting and prepared their satirical, documentary film “Merci Patron.”
The film, which won the French Cesar award for best documentary in 2017, follows a family that lost their jobs at a supplier to LVMH.
Bernard Arnault’s lawyer did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Adani allegations shine spotlight on India’s clean energy conundrum
- The problem is that India’s states are unprepared for the rapid rise in renewable generating capacity, lack adequate transmission infrastructure and storage
NEW DELHI: Bribery allegations against Adani Group founder Gautam Adani have highlighted the growing problem India’s renewable energy developers face in finding buyers for the power they generate.
While India’s central government wants to shift away from polluting coal-fired generation toward solar and wind, officials say state government-owned power distribution companies responsible for keeping the lights on have dragged their heels over striking renewable purchase deals. US authorities allege that Indian billionaire Adani conspired to devise a $265 million scheme to bribe Indian state government officials to secure solar power supply deals, after one of his companies was unable to secure buyers for a $6 billion project for several years.
The Adani Group has denied the charges.
The conglomerate is not alone in facing increasingly long delays in signing up buyers for the renewable electricity capacity which is now being developed in coal-dependent India — the world’s third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases.
Coal accounted for 75 percent of India’s power generation during the year to the end of March, with renewables such as solar and wind, but not including hydro-electricity, making up about 12 percent.
India is still more than 10 percent short of its much-publicized pledge to add 175 gigawatts (GW) of renewable power by 2022.
That has led the federal government to ramp up bidding for renewable projects to meet an ambitious 2030 target of increasing its non-fossil fuel capacity to 500 gigawatts (GW). In the five years to March 2028 it plans to tender for more than four-times the capacity of renewable energy projects it commissioned in the preceding five.
To push states to help meet India’s overall goal, New Delhi in 2022 introduced so-called renewable purchase obligations (RPOs), which mandate that states increase clean energy adoption so that the national share doubles to 43.3 percent in March 2030.
Honouring these RPOs would require 20 of the 30 provinces monitored to more than double the share of green power in their electricity mix, a February report by government think-tank NITI Aayog showed.
The problem is that India’s states are unprepared for the rapid rise in renewable generating capacity, lack adequate transmission infrastructure and storage and would rather rely on fossil fuel for supply than risk “intermittent” renewables.
The challenges were stark in the case of Adani Green, India’s largest renewable energy company, which took nearly 3-1/2 years to strike supply deals with buyers for the entire 8 gigawatts (GW) of solar power capacity it won in a tender widely publicized as the country’s biggest.
DEMAND POOL
Yet setting targets for tenders and issuing contracts is “meaningless” so long as interest from power distribution companies is so low, said R. Srikanth, energy industry adviser and dean at India’s National Institute of Advanced Studies.
And the allegations against Adani are likely to result in a further renewables slowdown, as low-cost finance from foreign investors may become more difficult to secure, Srikanth said.
A change in the way some tenders are run has exacerbated delays in the time it takes to complete renewables projects. The tender won by Adani Green was the first major contract issued by state-run Solar Energy Corp. of India (SECI) without a state-guaranteed Power Purchase Agreement (PPA).
When announced in June 2019, SECI said buyers were guaranteed, but it withdrew the provision from the deal signed a year later.
SECI’s chairman told Reuters last month that a three-fold increase in tendering of renewable projects has left 30 GW of projects for which bidding is complete, but without buyers.
“You can’t expect the states to respond and start signing three times the power supply agreements,” R P Gupta told Reuters in an interview, adding that a “demand pool has to be created” and states had to be “sensitised” to renewables.
Brokerage JM Financial said that it now takes 8 to 10 months to sign power supply deals after a contract is awarded.
By comparison, companies that were awarded contracts between July 2018 and December 2020 needed around three months to strike supply deals, SECI data showed.
“The sudden surge in bids, large pipeline of projects under construction, mismatch in power demand and bid-pipeline ... and constraints in timely execution of projects are leading to delays in signing,” JM Financial said.
Renewable energy projects have also seen cancelations, with about 4 percent-5 percent of all tendered projects annulled, and backlogs in transmission infrastructure development, Gupta said.
One solution, said Rakesh Nath, former chairman of India’s Central Electricity Authority, would be knowing how much power buyers want before projects are bid for.
“Taking buyers into confidence before inviting bids may minimize delays in signing power supply agreements,” he said.
