Turkey’s opposition to NATO’s Nordic enlargement fuels row ahead of June summit

NATO has repeatedly warned Turkey that the Russian S-400 missile defense system is incompatible with other NATO weapons systems, not least the F-35, a new generation multi-role stealth fighter jet. (File/AFP)
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Updated 19 May 2022
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Turkey’s opposition to NATO’s Nordic enlargement fuels row ahead of June summit

  • Ankara accuses Finland and Sweden of harboring terror groups
  • Erdogan’s personal concern is staying in power ahead of looming elections in 2023 amid a troubled economy, analyst tells Arab News

ANKARA: Turkey’s opposition to NATO’s decision to open accession talks with Finland and Sweden has sparked debate about concessions Ankara might extract to greenlight membership for the two Scandinavian countries — the biggest change in European security architecture for decades. 

Any country seeking to join NATO requires consensus approval from its 30 members, with the next NATO summit in Madrid coming in late June. 

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan insists that Ankara, a NATO member since 1952 and possessing the alliance’s second largest military, does not support membership for Finland and Sweden, accusing both countries of harboring terror groups.  

Turkey has told allies that it will say no to Sweden and Finland’s NATO applications, Erdogan said in a video posted on his Twitter account on Thursday.

“This move, which has poured cold water on expectations about Finland and Sweden’s ‘historic’ accession to the military alliance, was not really a surprise,” said Paul Levin, director of Stockholm University’s Institute for Turkish Studies.

Turkey has long criticized Sweden’s policy of turning a blind eye to the presence of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party on its soil despite being classified as terrorist group by the US and EU.  

However, for Levin, what Erdogan wants in return has a number of possible interpretations. 

“Sweden’s policy against the PKK and its Syrian Kurdish YPG offshoot in northern Syria was an issue of concern not only for the ruling government in Turkey, but also for the national security establishment for a long time. In that respect, the disagreement over this critical issue has been a widely-shared sentiment,” he told Arab News. 

Finland and Sweden have imposed arms embargoes since 2019 over Turkey’s cross-border operation into Syria against Syrian Kurdish militants. Contacts between top Swedish officials and YPG leaders have been condemned by Ankara.

But, for Levin, there is always a domestic political dimension behind such decisions in Turkey. 

“Erdogan’s personal concern is staying in power ahead of the looming elections in 2023 amid a troubled economy,” he said. 

“Playing hardball with the West is likely to appeal (to a) domestic audience and consolidate stronger public support that needs nationalistic motivations.”

However, Levin is not convinced Turkey’s opposition to NATO enlargement will persuade Washington to approve Turkey’s request in October to buy 40 Lockheed Martin F-16 fighters, and approximately 80 modernization kits for its current warplanes, which the US has so far refrained from doing.

“The presence of (the) Russian-made S-400 defense system on Turkish soil renders the acquisition of the F-35 aircraft impossible because of the interoperability problems. I’m not sure that the US Congress can approve the sale of other modernization kits as well because it can be considered as a concession against Turkey’s blackmail,” he said.  

On Wednesday, Swedish Minister for Defense Peter Hultqvist held meetings with his US counterpart Lloyd Austin in Washington, while Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu met with his US counterpart Antony Blinken in New York. 

Cavusoglu also held recent talks with his Swedish and Finnish counterparts in Berlin. 

“Negotiations are going on to reach a diplomatic resolution,” Levin said. 

“But, I don’t expect that Sweden (will) give some kind of public concessions on human rights that could drive the ruling Social Democrats into (a) corner ahead of the parliamentary elections in September.”

Sweden currently has six sitting Kurdish members of parliament.

“Giving up the Kurdish cause by extraditing 33 people accused of terrorism charges in Turkey will not play well with the Swedish government, as the country hosts a wide Kurdish diaspora,” Levin added.  

Turkey wants the Nordic duo to stop supporting Kurdish militant groups on their soil, to refrain from having contact with PKK members, and to lift bans on arms sales to Turkey.   

For Karol Wasilewski, director of actionable analytics at Warsaw-based agency NEOŚwiat, Turkey wants to show its NATO allies that it is dead serious when it says that its security interests, particularly its sensitivity about PKK and YPG issues, should be respected. 

“For a long time, and not without reason, Turkey has had a feeling that the approach of its allies to its security interests does not correspond to the country’s contribution to the alliance’s security,” he told Arab News.

But Wasilewski thinks that the problem will be solved with negotiations between Turkey, Sweden and Finland, with the support of the US and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. 

“Perhaps Erdogan’s statement that Turkey can’t agree on membership for countries that sanction Turkey was a signal of area where the compromise could be made,” he said.

“Turkey would definitely drive a hard bargain, but I find it very difficult to imagine that this would translate to a hard veto.

“Turkey is well aware of the benefits that Finish and Swedish membership to NATO would bring, and that blocking the enlargement would result in immense pressure from the rest of (the) member countries. And Turkey simply can’t afford a strong backlash from the West.”  

Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute, thinks that Turkey’s main objection to the Nordic expansion of NATO is rooted in existing PKK fundraising networks in Sweden, and Sweden’s public ties with YPG officials.  

“Following closed-door conversations, Sweden could take measures to satisfy Turkey’s sensitivities,” he told Arab News. 

Stoltenberg also made it clear that Turkey’s concerns will be addressed in a way that does not delay the membership process. 

Cagaptay thinks that there are several explanations about Erdogan’s hardline rhetoric on NATO enlargement. 

“He decided to up the ante to publicly embarrass Stockholm to get concrete steps,” Cagaptay said.  

“There is also a Russian angle, where one veto inside NATO against Nordic expansion would make Russian President Vladimir Putin extremely happy.

“On the US side, Erdogan also signals that his objection to the NATO enlargement may be lifted if Biden convinces Sen. Bob Menendez in lifting his objections against Turkish defense exports,” Cagaptay added.

The US continues its active diplomacy addressing Turkey’s objections, as US national security advisor Jake Sullivan said on Wednesday.

“Turkey’s concerns can be addressed. Finland and Sweden are working directly with Turkey. But we’re also talking to the Turks to try to help facilitate,” he said.

According to Cagaptay, this latest crisis, besides showing Turkey to be akin to a Russian ally inside NATO, has helped Erdogan to again project his global strongman image domestically. 

“At the end of the day, he will write a narrative of the political war he has waged against Europe, and will be emerging a winner of this fight,” he said.


UN migration agency appeals for $73 million in aid for Syria

Updated 58 min 27 sec ago
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UN migration agency appeals for $73 million in aid for Syria

  • UN’s International Organization for Migration more than doubling an appeal launched last month for Syria
  • The Geneva-based agency said it was working to reestablish its presence inside Syria

GENEVA: The UN migration agency on Thursday expanded an aid appeal for Syria to over $73 million, as the country transitions after years of civil war and decades of dictatorship.
The United Nations’ International Organization for Migration said it was more than doubling an appeal launched last month for Syria, from $30 million to $73.2 million, with the aim of assisting 1.1 million people across Syria over the next six months.
“IOM is committed to helping the people of Syria at this historical moment as the nation recovers from nearly 14 years of conflict,” IOM chief Amy Pope said in a statement.
“IOM will bring our deep experience in humanitarian assistance and recovery to help vulnerable communities across the country as we work with all partners to help build a better future for Syria.”
The Geneva-based agency said it was working to reestablish its presence inside Syria, after exiting Damascus in 2020, building on its experience working there in the preceding two decades, as well as on its cross-border activities in the past decade to bring aid to northwest Syria.
It said it aimed “to provide immediate assistance to the most at-risk and vulnerable communities, including displaced and returning groups, across Syria.”
The requested funds, it added, would be used to provide essential relief items and cash, shelter, protection assistance, water, sanitation, hygiene and health services.
They would also go to providing recovery support to people on the move, including those displaced, or preparing to relocate.
The dramatic political upheaval in Syria after the sudden ousting last month of strongman Bashar Assad after decades of dictatorship has spurred large movements of people.
Half of Syria’s population were forced from their homes during nearly 14 years of civil war, with millions fleeing the country and millions more displaced internally.
The UN refugee agency has said it expects around one million people to return to the country in the first half of this year.
And by the end of 2024, the UN humanitarian agency had already recorded the returns of nearly 500,000 people who had been internally displaced inside Syria, IOM pointed out.


US, Arab mediators make some progress in Gaza peace talks, no deal yet, sources say

Updated 09 January 2025
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US, Arab mediators make some progress in Gaza peace talks, no deal yet, sources say

  • Israeli strikes continue amid ongoing peace talks
  • Hamas demands end to war for hostage release

CAIRO: US and Arab mediators have made some progress in their efforts to reach a ceasefire accord between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, but not enough to seal a deal, Palestinian sources close to the talks said on Thursday.
As talks continued in Qatar, the Israeli military carried out strikes across the enclave, killing at least 17 people, Palestinian medics said.
Qatar, the US and Egypt are making a major push to reach a deal to halt fighting in the 15-month conflict and free remaining hostages held by Islamist group Hamas before President Joe Biden leaves office.
President-elect Donald Trump has warned there will be “hell to pay,” if the hostages are not released by his inauguration on Jan. 20.
On Thursday, a Palestinian official close to the mediation effort said the absence of a deal so far did not mean the talks were going nowhere and said this was the most serious attempt so far to reach an accord.
“There are extensive negotiations, mediators and negotiators are talking about every word and every detail. There is a breakthrough when it comes narrowing old existing gaps but there is no deal yet,” he told Reuters, without giving further details.
On Tuesday, Israeli Foreign Ministry Director General Eden Bar-Tal said Israel was fully committed to reaching an agreement to return its hostages from Gaza but faces obstruction from Hamas.
The two sides have been an at impasse for a year over two key issues. Hamas has said it will only free its remaining hostages if Israel agrees to end the war and withdraw all its troops from Gaza. Israel says it will not end the war until Hamas is dismantled and all hostages are free.
Severe humanitarian crisis
On Thursday, the death toll from Israel’s military strikes included eight Palestinians killed in a house in Jabalia, the largest of Gaza’s eight historic refugee camps, where Israeli forces have operated for more than three months. Nine others, including a father and his three children, died in two separate airstrikes on two houses in central Gaza Strip, health officials said.
There was no Israeli military comment on the two incidents.
More than 46,000 people have been killed in the Gaza war, according to Palestinian health officials. Much of the enclave has been laid waste and most of the territory’s 2.1 million people have been displaced multiple times and face acute shortages of food and medicine, humanitarian agencies say.
Israel denies hindering humanitarian relief to Gaza and says it has facilitated the distribution of hundreds of truckloads of food, water, medical supplies and shelter equipment to warehouses and shelters over the past week.
Israel launched its assault on Gaza after Hamas fighters stormed southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing 1,200 people and capturing more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies. On Wednesday, the Israeli military said troops had recovered the body of Israeli Bedouin hostage Youssef Al-Ziyadna, along with evidence that was still being examined suggesting his son Hamza, taken on the same day, may also be dead.
“We will continue to make every effort to return all of our hostages, the living and the deceased,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement.


Lebanon’s parliament fails to elect new president; Aoun falls 15 votes short of required 86 in first round

Updated 09 January 2025
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Lebanon’s parliament fails to elect new president; Aoun falls 15 votes short of required 86 in first round

  • Lebanese army commander Joseph Aoun is the leading candidate
  • He is widely seen as the preferred candidate of the US and Saudi Arabia

BEIRUT: Lebanon’s parliament yet again failed to elect a president on Thursday, after 12 previous attempts to choose a successor to former President Michel Aoun, whose term ended in October 2022.

Lebanese army commander Joseph Aoun, the leading candidate, failed to muster enough support – getting only 71 votes or 15 short of the required 86 in the first round of voting.

He is widely seen as the preferred candidate of the United States and Saudi Arabia, whose assistance Lebanon will need as it seeks to rebuild after a 14-month conflict between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.

Lebanon’s parliament speaker Nabih Berri adjourned the session for two hours of consultations, after a first round of voting failed to produce enough votes for Aoun.

Two political sources said Aoun was likely to cross the 86-vote threshold in a second session later in the day.

Hezbollah previously backed another candidate, Suleiman Frangieh, the leader of a small Christian party in northern Lebanon with close ties to former Syrian President Bashar Assad.

However, on Wednesday, Frangieh announced he had withdrawn from the race and endorsed Aoun, apparently clearing the way for the army chief.

Lebanon’s fractious sectarian power-sharing system is prone to deadlock, both for political and procedural reasons. The small, crisis-battered Mediterranean country has been through several extended presidential vacancies, with the longest lasting nearly 2 1/2 years between May 2014 and October 2016. It ended when former President Michel Aoun was elected.

As a sitting army commander, Joseph Aoun is technically barred from becoming president by Lebanon’s constitution. The ban has been waived before, but it means that Aoun faces additional procedural hurdles.

Under normal circumstances, a presidential candidate in Lebanon can be elected by a two-thirds majority of the 128-member house in the first round of voting, or by a simple majority in a subsequent round.

But because of the constitutional issues surrounding his election, Aoun would need a two-thirds majority even in the second round.

Other contenders include Jihad Azour, a former finance minister who is now the director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund; and Elias Al-Baysari, the acting head of Lebanon’s General Security agency.

The next head of state will face daunting challenges apart from implementing the ceasefire agreement that ended the Israel-Hezbollah war and seeking funds for reconstruction.

Lebanon is six years into an economic and financial crisis that decimated the country’s currency and wiped out the savings of many Lebanese. The cash-strapped state electricity company provides only a few hours of power a day.

The country’s leaders reached a preliminary agreement with the IMF for a bail-out package in 2022 but have made limited progress on reforms required to clinch the deal.


Turkiye to tell US that Syria needs to be rid of terrorists, Turkish source says

Updated 09 January 2025
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Turkiye to tell US that Syria needs to be rid of terrorists, Turkish source says

  • Ankara has repeatedly demanded that its NATO ally Washington halt its support for the YPG

ANKARA: Turkish officials will tell US Under Secretary of State John Bass during talks in Ankara this week that Syria needs to be rid of terrorist groups to achieve stability and security, a Turkish Foreign Ministry source said on Thursday.
Bass’ visit comes amid repeated warnings from Turkiye that it could mount a cross-border military offensive into northeastern Syria against the Kurdish YPG militia if the group does not meet its demands.
The YPG spearheads the US-allied Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which played an important role in defeating Islamic State in Syria. Ankara views the group as terrorists and an extension of the Kurdish militants waging a decades-old insurgency against the Turkish state, and has said it must lay down its weapons and disband.
During his visit to Ankara on Thursday and Friday, Bass will hold talks with Turkiye’s deputy foreign ministers, the source said, adding the talks would focus on Syria.
Talks are expected to “focus on steps to establish stability and security in Syria and to support the establishment of an inclusive government,” the source said.
“Naturally, the Turkish side is expected to strongly repeat that, for this to happen, the country needs to be rid of terrorist elements,” the person said, adding the sides would also discuss expanding the US sanctions exemption to Syria for the country to rebuild.
Ankara has repeatedly demanded that its NATO ally Washington halt its support for the YPG. It has mounted several incursions against the group and controls swathes of territory in northern Syria.
Syria’s Kurdish factions have been on the back foot since the ousting of former President Bashar Assad, with the new administration being friendly to Turkiye.


37 killed in north Syria clashes between pro-Turkiye, Kurdish forces: monitor

Updated 09 January 2025
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37 killed in north Syria clashes between pro-Turkiye, Kurdish forces: monitor

  • Latest reported fighting comes despite the US saying it was working to address Turkiye’s concerns in Syria
  • Syria’s Kurds control much of the oil-rich northeast of the country, where they enjoy de facto autonomy

DAMASCUS: Battles between Turkish-backed groups, supported by air strikes, and Kurdish-led forces killed 37 people on Thursday in Syria’s northern Manbij region, a war monitor said.
The latest reported fighting comes despite the United States saying Wednesday that it was working to address Turkiye’s concerns in Syria to dissuade the NATO ally from escalating an offensive against Kurdish fighters.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor reported “fierce battles in the Manbij countryside... in the past hours between the (Kurdish-led) Syrian Democratic Forces and the (Turkish-backed) National Army factions... with Turkish air cover.”
“The attacks killed 37 people in a preliminary toll,” mostly Turkish-backed combatants, but also six SDF fighters and five civilians, said the British-based Observatory with a network of sources inside Syria.
The monitor said at least 322 people have been killed in fighting in the Manbij countryside since last month.
On Wednesday, Mazloum Abdi, who heads the US-backed SDF, said his group supported “the unity and integrity of Syrian territory.” In a written statement, he called on Syria’s new authorities “to intervene in order for there to be a ceasefire throughout Syria.”
Abdi’s comments followed what he called a “positive” meeting between Kurdish leaders and the Damascus authorities late last month.
Turkish-backed factions in northern Syria resumed their fight with the SDF at the same time as Islamist-led militants were launching an offensive on November 27 that overthrew Syrian president Bashar Assad just 11 days later.
The pro-Ankara groups succeeded in capturing Kurdish-held Manbij and Tal Rifaat in northern Aleppo province, despite US-led efforts to establish a truce in the Manbij area.
The fighting has continued since, with mounting casualties.
On Wednesday Washington’s Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Turkiye had “legitimate concerns” about Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) militants inside Syria and called for a resolution in the country that includes the departure of “foreign terrorist fighters.”
“That’s a process that’s going to take some time, and in the meantime, what is profoundly not in the interest of everything positive we see happening in Syria would be a conflict, and we’ll work very hard to make sure that that doesn’t happen,” Blinken told reporters in Paris.
Turkiye on Tuesday threatened a military operation against Kurdish forces in Syria unless they accepted Ankara’s conditions for a “bloodless” transition after Assad’s fall.
Syria’s Kurds control much of the oil-rich northeast of the country, where they enjoyed de facto autonomy during much of the civil war since 2011.
The US-backed SDF spearheaded the military campaign that ousted Daesh group militants from their last territory in Syria in 2019.
But Turkiye accuses the main component of the SDF, the People’s Protection Units (YPG), of being affiliated with the PKK, which has waged a four-decade insurgency against the Turkish state.
The PKK is considered a terrorist organization by Turkiye, the United States, the European Union and most of Turkiye’s Western allies.
Turkiye has mounted multiple operations against the SDF since 2016.