Pakistan’s political turmoil: Diminished strategic relevance

Pakistan’s democratic mis-governance and political turmoil together with a severe economic downturn has diminished the relevance of the country, which is situated in a geo-strategic region. Pakistan is now being bracketed with Sri Lanka as a basket case economy with no clear direction for long-term economic recovery and is increasingly dependent on the IMF for short term buoyancy.

The deep political divide and polarization of society is being amplified, at all strata, by a robust social media that is projecting gloom and doom and creating an air of despondency that in turn feeds the vicious cycles of inane and irrational political narratives and negatively impacts the working of state organs and institutions which are succumbing to populism.

Constitutional governance seems to have become almost impossible with the sort of politicking that is in evidence and with the widespread and painful disdain of authority and state institutions. Pakistan’s experience with democracy, without limits, has gone too far and comes at the risks of state failure. The politicians and the elite have outdone each other in pursuit of their self- interests and befooled the people in the name of lofty notions of sovereignty, fundamental rights, justice and the rule of law.

For far too long the people have been fed conspiracy theories of hybrid wars, of Pakistan being a victim of external campaigns at subversion. This sense of victimhood is self-defeating as it disables reason and leads to emotional responses to matter-of-fact issues.

Misplaced notions of patriotism have led ‘others’ to be seen as ‘enemies’ thus closing avenues for rational political discourse.  

For more than 70 years, Pakistan has not been able to update its own view of its neighborhood, the region and the world. Sterile thinking about Pakistan’s interests and the ways to achieve these has prevented the country from adapting to new and emerging realities both within and in the world.  The National Security Policy was the only dignified attempt in recent times to change the paradigm to economic security and development. 

This of course required creating economic and strategic space and availing the huge opportunities opening up in the broader Asian region.  However, the global geopolitical and economic developments required carefully crafted state policies. The sheer inability of the political leaders and policy institutions to navigate the challenges for defending and promoting national interests is a stupendous loss. 

A large portion of the blame needs to be attributed to the bureaucracy for veering away from preserving state interests vis a vis meeting political expedients of those in power.

Salman Bashir

A large portion of the blame needs to be attributed to the bureaucracy for veering away from preserving state interests vis a vis meeting political expedients of those in power. A whole lot of factors came in the way. The civil service was politicized and the proclivity of the politicians to use state institutions for rogue operations effectively destroyed the civil service. Successive democratic governments failed to reform the civil service. This is a reflection of attitude. The political games in democracy are played everywhere but the governance in the larger interests of the state and the people is carried on by the public service. This has not been the case here, which is unfortunate.

There are no easy answers to the present state of play in Pakistan.  Economic hardships can trigger implosions and lead to widespread anarchy and chaos. Pakistan is in a debt trap. The IMF is a short-term answer. Even that is not assured at this point. If only the

Overseas Pakistanis were to double their homeward remittances, we could have $60 billion come in annually. This is certainly more doable than seeking additional loans from friendly states. The IMF program is essential but would lead to severe economic contraction. Yet ways need to be devised to protect and promote exports.

The economic pain for now can perhaps be alleviated but medium to long term recovery and growth is contingent on domestic political factors, clarity of vision and refocusing on national strengths, as well as on opportunities nearby for realizing the economic security paradigm that was spelled out in the National Security Policy. 

Pakistan needs to once again realize the true worth of its geography, natural resources and the industriousness of its hard working people to rekindle its self confidence as a significant entity for prosperity, stability and peace in Asia.

– Salman Bashir is a Pakistani diplomat who served as Foreign Secretary of Pakistan and as High Commissioner of Pakistan to India.

Twitter: @Salman_B_PK