The World Bank revised the 2022 growth forecast upward for the Middle East and North Africa region by 0.9 percentage points on rising oil revenues.
According to the latest publication by the World Bank, the growth in the region is expected to firm to 5.3 percent in 2022, up by 0.9 percentage point from the January forecast, assisted by rising oil revenues and structural reforms in some economies, the report said.
The growth rate is the fastest in a decade and the rebound could have been stronger had it not been for the detrimental impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on oil importers, it added.
“In Saudi Arabia, strong oil production growth and a robust recovery in the non-oil sector is expected to drive 2022 growth to a decade high of 7 percent, before slowing to 3.8 percent in 2023,” the report said.
Non-oil activity, on the other hand, will also benefit from growth in private consumption and capital spending, as government revenues thrive on higher oil prices.
The UAE will also benefit in the near term from rising oil prices, however, government reforms will also play a role in accelerating this growth in the medium term.
The output in the region remains below pre-pandemic trends and the gap is expected to have roughly halved by 2023 relative to 2020, supported by the faster growth in oil exporters relative to oil importing countries.
According to the report, the softened output gap in oil exporting economies will help growth reach a peak of 5.6 percent in 2022 — 1.2 percentage points higher than previously projected. This will outweigh the deterioration in the outlook for oil importers where fiscal deficits are expected to widen because of higher expenditures.