Sri Lanka’s crisis rings alarm for other troubled economies, from Lebanon to Pakistan

An investor monitors indexes on the big screen at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSE), in Karachi, Pakistan, June 24, 2022. (AP)
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Updated 06 July 2022
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Sri Lanka’s crisis rings alarm for other troubled economies, from Lebanon to Pakistan

  • Like Sri Lanka, Pakistan has been in urgent talks with the IMF, hoping to revive a $6 billion bailout package 
  • Soaring crude oil prices pushed up fuel prices which in turn raised other costs, pushing inflation to over 21 percent

BANGKOK: Sri Lanka is desperate for help with weathering its worst crisis in recent memory. Its schools are closed for lack of fuel to get kids and teachers to classrooms. Its effort to arrange a bailout from the International Monetary Fund has been hindered by the severity of its financial crisis, its prime minister says.

But it’s not the only economy that’s in serious trouble as prices of food, fuel and other staples have soared with the war in Ukraine. Alarm bells are ringing for many economies around the world, from Laos and Pakistan to Venezuela and Guinea.

Some 1.6 billion people in 94 countries face at least one dimension of the crisis in food, energy and financial systems, and about 1.2 billion of them live in “perfect-storm” countries, severely vulnerable to a cost-of-living crisis plus other longer-term strains, according to a report last month by the Global Crisis Response Group of the United Nations Secretary-General.

The exact causes for their woes vary, but all share rising risks from surging costs for food and fuel, driven higher by Russia’s war on Ukraine, which hit just as disruptions to tourism and other business activity from the coronavirus pandemic were fading. As a result, the World Bank estimates that per capita incomes in developing economies will be 5 percent below pre-pandemic levels this year.




A daily wage laborer waits for work at a wholesale market in Colombo, Sri Lanka, Sunday, June 26, 2022. (AP)

The economic strains are fueling protests in many countries, as meanwhile, short-term, higher interest borrowing to help finance pandemic relief packages has heaped more debt on countries already struggling to meet repayment obligations. More than half of the world’s poorest countries are in debt distress or at high risk of it, according to the UN.

Some of the worst crises are in countries already devastated by corruption, civil war, coups or other calamities. They muddle along, but with an undue burden of suffering.

Here’s a look at a few of the economies that are in dire straits or at greatest risk.

PAKISTAN

Like Sri Lanka, Pakistan has been in urgent talks with the IMF, hoping to revive a $6 billion bailout package that was put on hold after Prime Minister Imran Khan’s government was ousted in April. Soaring crude oil prices pushed up fuel prices which in turn raised other costs, pushing inflation to over 21 percent. A government minister’s appeal to cut back on tea drinking to reduce the $600 million bill for imported tea angered many Pakistanis. Pakistan’s currency, the rupee, has fallen about 30 percent against the US dollar in the past year. To gain the IMF’s support, Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif has raised fuel prices, abolished fuel subsidies and imposed a new, 10 percent “super tax” on major industries to help repair the country’s tattered finances. As of late March, Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves had fallen to $13.5 billion, equivalent to just two months of imports. “Macroeconomic risks are strongly tilted to the downside,” the World Bank warned in its latest assessment.


AFGHANISTAN

Afghanistan has been reeling from a dire economic crisis since the Taliban took control as the US and its NATO allies withdrew their forces last year. Foreign aid — long a mainstay — stopped practically overnight and governments piled on sanctions, halted bank transfers and paralyzed trade, refusing to recognize the Taliban government. The Biden administration froze $7 billion in Afghanistan’s foreign currency reserves held in the United States. About half the country’s 39 million people face life-threatening levels of food insecurity and most civil servants, including doctors, nurses and teachers, have been unpaid for months. A recent earthquake killed more than 1,000 people, adding to those miseries.




A man stands among piles of humanitarian food supplies in Kabul, Afghanistan, Wednesday, Feb. 16, 2022. (AP/FILE)

ARGENTINA

About four of every 10 Argentines are poor and its central bank is running perilously low on foreign reserves as its currency weakens. Inflation is forecast to exceed 70 percent this year. Millions of Argentines survive largely thanks to soup kitchens and state welfare programs, many of which are funneled through politically powerful social movements linked to the ruling party. A recent deal with the IMF to restructure $44 billion in debt faces questions over concessions that critics say will hinder a recovery.

EGYPT

Egypt’s inflation rate surged to almost 15 percent in April, causing privation especially for the nearly one-third of its 103 million people living in poverty. They were already suffering from an ambitious reform program that includes painful austerity measures like floating the national currency and slashing subsidies for fuel, water and electricity. The central bank raised interest rates to curb inflation and devalued the currency, adding to difficulties in repaying Egypt’s sizable foreign debt. Egypt’s net foreign reserves have fallen. Its neighbors Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have pledged $22 billion in deposits and direct investments as assistance.




People crowd a msjor street in Cairo, Egypt, April 14, 2020. (AP/FILE)

LAOS

Tiny, landlocked Laos was one of the fastest growing economies until the pandemic hit. Its debt levels have surged and like Sri Lanka, it is in talks with creditors on how to repay billions of dollars worth of loans. That’s an urgent issue given the country’s weak government finances. Its foreign reserves are equal to less than two months of imports, the World Bank says. A 30 percent depreciation in the Lao currency, the kip, has worsened those woes. Rising prices and job losses due to the pandemic threaten to worsen poverty.

LEBANON

Lebanon shares with Sri Lanka a toxic combination of currency collapse, shortages, punishing levels of inflation and growing hunger, snaking queues for gas and a decimated middle class. It, too, endured a long civil war, its recovery hampered by government dysfunction and terror attacks.




Residents raise their hands as they cross a street during a protest against rising prices of consumer goods and the crash of local currency in Beirut, Lebanon, Monday, Nov. 29, 2021.  (AP/FILE)

Proposed taxes in late 2019 ignited longstanding anger against the ruling class and months of protests. The currency began to sink and Lebanon defaulted on paying back worth about $90 billion at the time, or 170 percent of GDP — one of the highest in the world. In June 2021, with the currency having lost nearly 90 percent of its value, the World Bank said the crisis ranked as one of the worst the world has seen in more than 150 years.

MYANMAR

The pandemic and political instability have buffeted Myanmar’s economy, especially after the army seized power in February 2021 from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi. That brought Western sanctions targeting commercial holdings controlled by the army, which dominate the economy. The economy contracted by 18 percent last year and is forecast to barely grow in 2022. More than 700,000 people have fled or been forced from their homes by armed conflicts and political violence. The situation is so uncertain, a recent global economic update from the World Bank excluded forecasts for Myanmar for 2022-2024.

TURKEY

Worsening government finances and a growing trade and capital account deficit have compounded Turkey’s troubles with high and rising debt, inflation — at over 60 percent — and high unemployment. The Central Bank resorted to using foreign reserves to fend off a currency crisis, after the beleaguered lira fell to all-time lows against the US dollar euro in late 2021. Tax cuts and fuel subsidies to cushion the blow from inflation have weakened government finances. Families are struggling to buy food and other goods, while Turkey’s foreign debt is about 54 percent of its GDP, an unsustainable level given the high level of government debt.




A man buys bread in Ulus district of the capital Ankara, Turkey, Thursday, May 5, 2022. (AP/FILE)

ZIMBABWE

Inflation in Zimbabwe has surged to more than 130 percent, raising fears the country could return to the hyperinflation of 2008 that reached 500 billion percent and heaping problems on its already fragile economy. Zimbabwe struggles to generate an adequate inflow of greenbacks needed for its largely dollarized local economy, which has been battered by years of de-industrialization, corruption, low investment, low exports and high debt. Inflation has left Zimbabweans distrustful of the currency, adding to demand for US dollars. And many skip meals as they struggle to make ends meet.


Days-long protest in Pakistan’s Gwadar continue over curbs on Iran border trade

Updated 6 sec ago
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Days-long protest in Pakistan’s Gwadar continue over curbs on Iran border trade

  • Locals in coastal town have traditionally used boats to travel into Iran to bring back oil and food items
  • In August, government introduced a token system with only registered boats allowed to cross over

QUETTA: A protest sit-in in the southwestern Pakistani port city of Gwadar entered its 10th day on Monday, with participants calling for free trade with Iran via land and sea borders as well as uninterrupted electricity supply and access to clean drinking water.

Gwadar is a coastal town in Pakistan’s impoverished Balochistan province where China is developing a deep-sea port. Despite the largescale development work, residents of the town have for years complained of a lack of employment opportunities and basic facilities like clean drinking water and electricity.

Pakistan shares an 904-kilometer-long border with Iran via land and sea, which is used for informal trade between the two countries. Formal trade between Pakistan and Iran has been nominal due to US sanctions on Tehran, but the area is dominated by informal trade of Iranian oil, food items and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), transported through various border crossings in the Makran and Rakhshan divisions.

District Gwadar shares a sea border with Iran while Balochistan’s Kech and Panjgur districts share a land border. In the past, locals in Gwadar used boats to travel into Iran to bring home Iranian oil and food items. They crossed over into the neighboring country after showing their Pakistani national ID cards (CNICs). 

In August this year, authorities in Gwadar introduced a token system under which only registered boats, around 600, can daily cross into Iran through the Kantani Hor sea route. Locals say the new system has led to unemployment in the district as many can’t afford the tokens, which can cost up to Rs60,000 $215.

“We have been protesting for the last ten days because our people have lost their jobs since the government announced this new token system,” Houth Abdul Ghafoor, a local politician who has been leading the All-Parties Alliance protest since Dec. 13, told Arab News, describing the system as “official bribery.”

“More than three million people in Makran division are linked with border trade with Iran because we don’t have industries and other employment sources. The border restrictions are causing food and oil shortage in the coastal city.”

Jawad Ahmed Zehri, the Gwadar assistant commissioner, said the government had formalized border trade with Iran by registering boats so that all traders could benefit equally.

“Small traders are now directly benefitting from this token system as influential traders previously prevented smaller businessmen from crossing through the border,” Zehri told Arab News. “Now everyone can travel on his allotted number.”

Asked about talks between the administration and protesters, Zehri said the government would not engage with those pressurizing the government to abolish the token system.

The participants of the Gwadar sit-in said they are also protesting power and water shortages in the port city.

“We demand provision of basic facilities like education, water, electricity and job opportunities,” Maulana Hidayat-ur-Rehman, a provincial lawmaker from Gwadar, said.

Gwadar has witnessed regular days-long protests in recent years against the lack of basic amenities and alleged violations of human rights and extrajudicial killings by security agencies, who deny the charge. 

Separatists have been waging a decades-long insurgency in Balochistan, accusing the government and army of exploiting the impoverished province’s mineral wealth, accusations both reject. 


Peace talks to continue in Pakistani district wracked by sectarian feuding as two more killed

Updated 44 min ago
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Peace talks to continue in Pakistani district wracked by sectarian feuding as two more killed

  • Clashes between Sunni and Shia tribes have killed over 130 people in Kurram since last month
  • Violence has triggered road closures, disrupting access to medicine, food, fuel, education, work

PESHAWAR: A government-backed council of tribal elders leading peace talks in a Pakistani district where at least 136 people have been killed since last month in sectarian clashes will resume meetings in two days and expects to sign a “durable” peace agreement, a government official said on Monday.

Kurram, a tribal district of around 600,000 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province where federal and provincial authorities have traditionally exerted limited control, has frequently experienced violence between its Sunni and Shia Muslim communities over land and power. Travelers to and from the town ride in convoys escorted by security officials. 

The latest feuding started on Nov. 21 when gunmen ambushed a vehicle convoy and killed 52 people, mostly Shias. Nobody claimed responsibility for the assault, which triggered road closures and other measures that have disrupted people’s access to medicine, food, fuel, education and work.

Earlier this month, the provincial government of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party formed a ‘grand jirga’ of political and tribal heavyweights to convince rival tribes to shun violence.

“The jirga will resume meetings after two days and is expected to sign a durable peace agreement to the dispute,” Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) government spokesman Muhammad Ali Saif said in a statement, which came after two Shias were killed in the Ochat area of Kurram on Sunday night.

“The two persons were coming to their villages but on the main road unidentified men shot them dead at around 8pm,” Kurram police spokesman Riaz Khan told Arab News on Monday.

“One of the victims was from Alam Sher village and the other was from Zerran, Parachinar.”

Khan said at least 136 people had been killed in the violence since last month. If you added those who had died due to lack of access to hospitals and medicines following the road closures, the number reached at least 200, the police officer said. 

Last week, Saif said authorities had decided to dismantle private bunkers, observation posts used in the fighting by both sides, and given a deadline of Feb. 1 for tribesmen in Kurram to handover heavy weapons. Local tribesmen have so far reportedly refused to surrender their weapons, citing concerns about their safety.

A tribal elder who is part of the jirga, however, said most tribes had agreed to the council’s recommendations. 

“The jirga faces no big hurdles because both the sides have expressed willingness to abide by the jirga decisions, including removal of bunkers and surrendering of heavy weapons,” jorga member Muneer Bangash told Arab News on Monday. 

“Once there are no heavy weapons, I’m sure there will be no mass killings at the scale that we have recently witnessed.”

He said both the sides wanted “communal coexistence and harmony” and realized that the decades-old clash had only brought destruction.

“We will give good news very soon. Half of the threat will be gone once the heavy weapons are collected. Peace will gradually take root,” Bangash added. 

Meanwhile, the KP government has launched a helicopter service to evacuate people and transport aid and medicines to Kurran as a major highway connecting Kurram’s main city of Parachinar to the provincial capital of Peshawar has been blocked since last month, triggering a humanitarian crisis with reports of starvation, lack of medicine and oxygen shortages.

On Sunday, two flights evacuated 27 individuals and 16 government staffers and jirga members, according to KP chief minister’s office. Since last week, over 180 people, including women, children and patients, have been transported via helicopter, with priority given to those in need of urgent medical attention.

In a meeting on Monday, the KP cabinet decided to establish a special police force to secure the Peshawar-Parachinar road, for which 399 people would be recruited. 

Shia Muslims dominate parts of Kurram, although they are a minority in the rest of the country. The area has a history of sectarian conflict, with militant groups like the Pakistani Taliban and Daesh also previously targeting the minority group.


Fam Jam: Husband succeeds wife as chief traffic officer in Pakistan’s Lahore

Updated 55 min 40 sec ago
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Fam Jam: Husband succeeds wife as chief traffic officer in Pakistan’s Lahore

  • Amara Athar was appointed first women head of Lahore traffic police last year
  • She handed over the reins last week to her hudband DIG Athar Waheed

ISLAMABAD: The incoming Lahore Chief Traffic Officer is no stranger to Amara Athar, the Pakistani cultural capital’s first women head of traffic police, who handed over the reins this month to her successor.

In a twist that has led to widespread social media commentary, DIG Athar Waheed, who was appointed as Lahore CTO on Saturday, is the husband of Amara. His appointment has also led to the upgrade of the CTO position to the rank of Deputy Inspector General (DIG).

“It was an honor to be your Chief Traffic Officer for the year 2024,” Amara said on X. “May you all continue to work with dedication and professionalism for the safety of road users.” 

BS-19 police officer Amara was appointed Lahore CTO last December, making her the first woman police officer to hold the key traffic control assignment in the provincial capital of Punjab. 

“Ms Athar replaced retired Capt Mustansar Feroz, who had been holding the the Lahore CTO post for the last one year,” Punjab police said in a statement at the time, adding that there were many male contenders for the top slot of the Lahore traffic police, but Punjab Inspector General of Police (IGP) Dr. Usman Anwar preferred the decorated woman officer.

Amara was the fourth woman police officer posted in Lahore under Anwar, showing the Punjab Inspector General’s “policy of prioritising female officers for the field assignments in a bid to change the decades-old tradition of ‘male dominant’ policing in the province,” Punjab police said.


Pakistan stock market registers second highest single-day gain on ‘easing political noise’

Updated 23 December 2024
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Pakistan stock market registers second highest single-day gain on ‘easing political noise’

  • The benchmark KSE-100 index surged by 4,411 points, or 4.3 percent, to close at 113,924 points on Monday, according to stock traders
  • The development came as Pakistan’s government holds talks with ex-PM Imran Khan’s PTI opposition party to address political polarization

ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) began the week on a strong note and gained more than 4,000 points on Monday, stock analysts said, attributing the rally to “easing political noise” and upbeat economic indicators.
The benchmark KSE-100 index surged by 4,411 points, or 4.3 percent, to close at 113,924 points on Monday, according to stock traders. The market saw the trading of 424,809,788 shares and registered the second highest single-day gain from Friday’s close of 109,513 points.
Stock analysts said upbeat economic indicators on surging exports, remittances and foreign exchange reserves as well as the government’s talks with the opposition Pakistani Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party played a catalyst role in the rally.
“Stocks’ bullish record led by scrips across the board as investor weigh falling lending rates after fall in government bond yield and easing political noise,” Ahsan Mehanti, chief executive officer of Arif Habib Commodities, told Arab News.
Mehanti’s comments came hours after the Pakistani government held a first round of talks with jailed former prime minister Imran Khan’s PTI party to address political polarization in the country.
Pakistan has remained gripped by political unrest and uncertainty since Khan’s ouster from power through a parliamentary no-confidence vote in April 2022, which has also exacerbated Pakistan’s economic hardships.
However, Pakistan’s economic indicators have improved and the stock market has surged significantly, reaching a historic high of 117,039 points this month. Though the market shed around 9,000 points last week, but it recovered on Friday by registering a sharp increase of more than 3,000 points.
Pakistan’s central bank this month cut its key interest rate by 200 basis points to 13 percent, marking the fifth straight reduction since June. The country’s annual consumer inflation also slowed to 4.9 percent in November, lower than the government’s forecast and the lowest in nearly six years. This was down from 38 percent last year.
Data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics also supports positive investor sentiment as the trade deficit narrowed by 7.39 percent during the first five months (July-November) of the current fiscal year, standing at $8.651 billion, compared to $9.341 billion during the same period last year.
Exports rose by 12.57 percent to hit $13.69 billion, while imports increased by 3.90 percent to $22.342 billion during this period. November’s trade deficit narrowed even further, dropping by 18.60 percent year-on-year to $1.589 billion compared to $1.952 billion in November 2023.
Pakistan recorded an increase of 29.1 percent year on year in workers remittances, which amounted to $2.9 billion in November, according to the central bank data. The inflows rose by 33.6 percent to $14.8 billion from July till November, compared to $11.1 billion received during the same period last year.


PM hails Pakistan for ‘unstoppable, unbeatable’ performance in South Africa ODI series

Updated 23 December 2024
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PM hails Pakistan for ‘unstoppable, unbeatable’ performance in South Africa ODI series

  • Green Shirts thrashed South Africa 3-0 after losing Twenty20 series 2-0
  • Pakistan will now play three Tests against South Africa later this month

ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Monday praised the Pakistan cricket team for winning a three-match One Day International (ODI) series against South Africa, describing their performance as “unstoppable and unbeatable.”

The Green Shirts completed a series clean sweep over South Africa in the third ODI at the Wanderers Stadium on Sunday, with rising star Saim Ayub smashing his second century of the series and his third from five innings.

The left-handed opening batsman made a sparkling 101 off 94 balls in a Pakistan total of 308 for nine. Heinrich Klaasen thrashed 81 off 43 balls for South Africa, but the hosts were beaten by 36 runs chasing an adjusted target of 308 because of rain.

“Unstoppable and unbeatable!” Sharif remarked in a post on X. “Congratulations to Team Pakistan on an outstanding 3-0 ODI series victory against South Africa.”

The prime minister also praised the Pakistan Cricket Board chairman for the team’s performance.

“Well done, boys! Your determination, skill, and teamwork under the leadership of the PCB Chairman Syed Mohsin Raza Naqvi have made the entire nation proud,” he said.

“Keep raising the green flag high!“

South Africa won the T20I series 2-0 after the third match was washed out on Dec. 14. The ODI series win comes ahead of the upcoming International Cricket Council (ICC) Champions Trophy, which Pakistan will hosting in February and March 2025.

Pakistan will also play three Tests against South Africa later this month.