Taliban’s broken promises and seeking a lost Afghanistan

On the last day of July, the people of Kabul woke to the sound of thunderous blasts and a skyline covered in thick dark clouds. Rumours abounded but there was no official word on what had happened until two days later, when the US announced a CIA drone strike had killed chief of Al-Qaeda, Ayman Al-Zawahiri, a key plotter of the 9/11 attacks. 

Two hellfire missiles targeted a villa in Sherpur neighbourhood where Zawahiri, known as Doctor Saab among the Taliban, reportedly lived for months under Taliban rule. Sherpur is known among many in Kabul as Chorpur (neighbourhood of thieves) for the mansions owned mostly by war profiteers. 

The killing of Zawahiri was a bombshell for the Taliban leadership in more than one way. They understand the third missile was the message sent by the US, that their exit from Afghanistan did not mean an end to their military action. The Taliban had pledged to sever ties with foreign militants including those of Al Qaeda and to not provide shelter to those involved in terror. The betrayal of the pledge carried an immediate price.

Since the Taliban took over Afghanistan last year, they have been at a crossroads. It has a generational and ideological relationship with Al Qaeda and a bonding with Central Asian militants and Pakistani Taliban (TTP) who fought alongside them in the battle against NATO forces. They cannot fulfil their pledge to cleanse Afghanistan from terror networks, nor can they afford to go into isolation vis a vis bitter rivals, Daesh or ISKP.

The grim picture of Afghanistan today reflects the decades of war, foreign invasions and interventions, death and destruction, deadly infighting of warlords, and ethnic and sectarian tensions, leaving a bloodstained canvas of wounded Afghanistan.

Owais Tohid 

The past haunts the Taliban as they struggle to comprehend the changing socio political dynamics especially in the urban centres. The young post-9/11 generation born in a digital world and exposed to western values is on the streets resisting old fashioned Taliban decrees such as depriving millions of girls of high school education. Girls have held demonstrations in the heart of Kabul, the protests coinciding with the first anniversary of the Taliban takeover. “Bread, work, education, freedom,” they chanted as Taliban soldiers resorted to aerial firing to disperse the women and girl protestors. 

Taliban’s draconian policies are depriving millions of women and girls of the opportunity to live safe, free, fulfilling lives, according to Amnesty International’s investigative report poignantly titled ‘Death in Slow Motion: Women and Girls under Taliban rule.’ 

“Afghanistan’s Taliban is not a monolith and the leadership is struggling to transition from war to governance. The leadership is divided between those who want to engage and those who want the country to return to 1996,” says veteran journalist and author Kathy Gannon, who covered war-torn Afghanistan for over three decades. 

“The landscape is very different now with internet, social media and a population both in the rural and urban centres with access they never had before. All this makes imposing their [Taliban’s] will unchallenged impossible,” Gannon adds. 

The grim picture of Afghanistan today reflects the decades of war, foreign invasions and interventions, death and destruction, deadly infighting of warlords, and ethnic and sectarian tensions, leaving a bloodstained canvas of wounded Afghanistan.

The two decades and two trillion dollars America spent there seem to have left no resilient governance infrastructure as the system appears to have melted away with the chaotic exit of American forces and the following exodus of tens of thousands of Afghans. Foreign aid dependant Afghanistan is on a cliff-hanger under Taliban control. Who is to be blamed? The Taliban, as they still struggle to win international recognition? The Russians, the Americans, the regional players? Power hungry Afghan warlords? Or corrupt leaders who deserted them at this critical juncture? 

“The West/ America never understood Afghanistan. Neither did they make the efforts necessary to understand it, nor did they have a clear strategy of how to win or how to exit,” Gannon said.

Today, the country is facing what the UN calls the world’s largest humanitarian crisis. More than half of its 38 million people are facing starvation, millions of children are suffering from malnutrition while its economy has collapsed. The US has frozen Afghanistan’s billions of dollars, crippling the country’s economy. The western world has cut foreign aid, refusing to give money into the hands of the Taliban, citing their abuse of women’s rights and human rights. 

“The Afghan people are living a human rights nightmare, victim of both Taliban cruelty and international apathy,” notes Fareshta Abbasi in Human Rights Watch’s recently released report on Afghanistan.

“Taliban are repeating the mistakes of their past. They are seeking recognition as they did in the 90’s, while repeating their self-sabotaging, like the girls’ schools closure and hosting Ayman Al-Zawahiri. Their problematic actions undermine their own pursuit of international recognition,” says Obaidullah Baheer, commentator and lecturer at American University in Kabul.

“Taliban are responsible for their failure. It’s not to say that the US has been completely honest in this process, but the Taliban are answerable for their own mistakes,” Baheer says.

There are divisions within the Taliban on the question of girls’ education. The Taliban are grouped into three broad branches – the ideological or purists, the so-called moderates of the political lot, and the battle-hardened fighting force. The cabinet or members of the political group, including Mullah Baradar, the Haqqani brothers- Sirajuddin known as Khalifah and Anas, and Abdul Qahar Balkhi, all sit in Kabul. Most of them have exposure to and interact with the diplomatic community of the Western world, and were in favour of allowing girls’ education. The ideological group of Shura council members, with the Supreme Leader, Hibbatullah Akhunzada, remain mostly in their headquarters, Kandahar, like Mullah Omar’s era of the 90’s. And like in the 90’s, the final word came from Kandahar, reflecting their differences on how to govern Afghanistan. 

The West displays a strategic fatigue in Afghanistan, with money and resources diverted towards its own backyard via the Russia-Ukraine war, its humanitarian crisis and energy and food crises. Given its aid dependency, for the Taliban running Afghanistan without international recognition remains an ongoing struggle unless it changes its style of governance and an inclusive government is formed. 

For Afghans, the future is filled with uncertainty, both optimism and pessimism.  

“The goal must be to keep pushing, to make sure before Taliban arrive at any form of recognition, that they realise they have to have internal popularity. Internal legitimacy can only be given to them by Afghans who feel their rights are safeguarded under Taliban rule,” says Baheer, an advocate of trying to find reconciliation from within Afghan society.

But inside his heart he feels Afghanistan is lost. 

“August 2021, we lost Afghanistan again,” he said. “The past year has been an attempt to find it.” 

- Owais Tohid has reported extensively on war and conflict in Asia for 30 years and witnessed the rise and fall of the Taliban in Afghanistan. He has also covered the Palestinian conflict in the Occupied Territories and worked for the BBC World Service, AFP and CS Monitor. Twitter: @OwaisTohid