With a Russian nudge, Turkey and Syria step up contacts

Fighters from the Free Syrian Army take part in a military training exercise near the border town of Azaz in the north of the Aleppo province. (AFP)
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Updated 16 September 2022
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With a Russian nudge, Turkey and Syria step up contacts

ANKARA: Turkey’s intelligence chief has held multiple meetings with his Syrian counterpart in Damascus over the last few weeks, a sign of Russian efforts to encourage a thaw between states on opposite sides of Syria’s war, four sources said.
A regional source aligned with Damascus said that Hakan Fidan, head of Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization, and Syrian intelligence chief Ali Mamlouk met as recently as this week in the Syrian capital.
The contacts reflect a Russian policy shift as Moscow steels itself for a protracted conflict in Ukraine and seeks to secure its position in Syria, where its forces have supported President Bashar Assad since 2015, according to two Turkish officials and the regional source.
Any normalization between Ankara and Damascus would reshape the decade-long Syrian war.
Turkish backing has been vital to sustaining Syrian fighters in their last major territorial foothold in the northwest, after Assad defeated the insurgency across the rest of the country, aided by Russia and Iran.

BACKGROUND

Turkish backing has been vital to sustaining Syrian fighters in their last major territorial foothold in the northwest, after Bashar Assad’s regime defeated the insurgency across the rest of the country, aided by Russia and Iran.

But rapprochement faces big complications, including the fate of rebel fighters and millions of civilians, many of whom fled to the northwest to escape Assad’s rule.
Turkey, a NATO member country, has troops on the ground across the area, deemed occupying forces by Assad.
During the meetings, Fidan — one of President Tayyip Erdogan’s closest confidants — and Mamlouk evaluated how the two countries’ foreign ministers could eventually meet, according to a senior Turkish official and a Turkish security source.
“Russia wants Syria and Turkey to overcome their problems and achieve certain agreements ... which are in the interest of everyone, both Turkey and Syria,” said the Turkish official.
One big challenge is Turkey’s desire to include Syrian rebels in any talks with Damascus, the official added.
The Turkish security official said Russia has gradually withdrawn some military resources from Syria in order to focus on Ukraine, and had asked Turkey to normalise relations with Assad to “accelerate a political solution” in Syria.
The Damascus-allied source said Russia had nudged Syria to enter talks as Moscow seeks to nail down its position and that of Assad in the event it must redeploy forces to Ukraine. Russia has sustained stunning losses on the ground in Ukraine over the past week.
The most recent meetings — including a two-day visit by Fidan to Damascus at the end of August — had sought to lay the ground for sessions at a higher level, the source said.
The senior Turkish official said Ankara does not want to see Iranian or Iran-backed forces — already widely deployed in regime-controlled parts of Syria — plugging gaps left by Russian withdrawals.
The Turkish security official said neither did Russia want to see Iranian influence expand as it reduces its presence.
A diplomat based in the region said Russia had pulled a limited number of troops out of Syria’s south earlier this summer, particularly in areas along the border with Israel that were later filled by Iran-aligned forces. While Fidan and Mamlouk have spoken intermittently over the last two years, the pace and timing of recent meetings suggests a new urgency to the contacts.
The regional source allied to Damascus and a second senior pro-Assad source in the Middle East said the Turkish-Syrian contacts had made a lot of progress, without giving details.
A third regional source aligned with Damascus said Turkish-Syrian relations had begun to thaw and were advancing to a stage of “creating a climate for understanding.”
The Russian Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Turkey’s MIT declined to comment and the Foreign Ministry did not immediately comment.
The Syrian Information Ministry did not immediately reply to emailed questions from Reuters.
Turkish-Syrian rapprochement seemed unthinkable earlier in the Syrian conflict, which spiraled out of an uprising against Assad in 2011, killing hundreds of thousands of people, drawing in numerous foreign powers, and splintering the country. Erdogan has called Assad a terrorist and said there could be no peace in Syria with him in office, while Assad has called Erdogan a thief for “stealing” Syrian land.
But in an apparent change of tone last month, Erdogan said he could never rule out dialogue and diplomacy with Syria.
Erdogan faces tight elections next year in which a key issue will be repatriating some of the 3.7 million Syrian refugees now in Turkey.
The Turkish-Syrian contacts come against the backdrop of a flurry of meetings between Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin, including one planned on Friday in Uzbekistan.
In July, Turkey helped seal a UN-backed deal that lifted a blockade on grain exports from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports..
After a recent visit to Moscow, Erdogan said Putin had suggested Turkey cooperate with Damascus along their joint border, where Ankara has waged several offensives into areas where Syrian Kurdish groups have carved out autonomy since 2011.
Turkey has been threatening to launch another offensive against the US-backed Kurdish forces, which Ankara deems a national security threat.
Russia has signaled opposition to such an incursion.

 


Egypt’s middle class cuts costs as IMF-backed reforms take hold

Updated 17 November 2024
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Egypt’s middle class cuts costs as IMF-backed reforms take hold

  • The world lender has long backed measures in Egypt including a liberal currency exchange market and weaning the public away from subsidies

Cairo: Egypt’s economy has been in crisis for years, but as the latest round of International Monetary Fund-backed reforms bites, much of the country’s middle class has found itself struggling to afford goods once considered basics.
The world lender has long backed measures in Egypt including a liberal currency exchange market and weaning the public away from subsidies.
On the ground, that has translated into an eroding middle class with depleted purchasing power, turning into luxuries what were once considered necessities.
Nourhan Khaled, a 27-year-old private sector employee, has given up “perfumes and chocolates.”
“All my salary goes to transport and food,” she said as she perused items at a west Cairo supermarket, deciding what could stay and what needed to go.
For some, this has extended to cutting back on even the most basic goods — such as milk.
“We do not buy sweets anymore and we’ve cut down on milk,” said Zeinab Gamal, a 28-year-old housewife.
Most recently, Egypt hiked fuel prices by 17.5 percent last month, marking the third increase just this year.
Mounting pressures
The measures are among the conditions for an $8 billion IMF loan program, expanded this year from an initial $3 billion to address a severe economic crisis in the North African country.
“The lifestyle I grew up with has completely changed,” said Manar, a 38-year-old mother of two, who did not wish to give her full name.
She has taken on a part-time teaching job to increase her family’s income to 15,000 Egyptian pounds ($304), just so she can “afford luxuries like sports activities for their children.”
Her family has even trimmed their budget for meat, reducing their consumption from four times to “only two times per week.”
Egypt, the Arab world’s most populous country, is facing one of its worst economic crises ever.
Foreign debt quadrupled since 2015 to register $160.6 billion in the first quarter of 2024. Much of the debt is the result of financing for large-scale projects, including a new capital east of Cairo.
The war in Gaza has also worsened the country’s economic situation.
Repeated attacks on Red Sea shipping by Yemen’s Houthi rebels in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza have resulted in Egypt’s vital Suez Canal — a key source of foreign currency — losing over 70 percent of its revenue this year.
Amid growing public frustration, officials have recently signalled a potential re-evaluation of the IMF program.
“If these challenges will make us put unbearable pressure on public opinion, then the situation must be reviewed with the IMF,” President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi said last month.
Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly also ruled out any new financial burdens on Egyptians “in the coming period,” without specifying a timeframe.
Economists, however, say the reforms are already taking a toll.
Wael Gamal, director of the social justice unit at the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights, said they led to “a significant erosion in people’s living conditions” as prices of medicine, services and transportation soared.
He believes the IMF program could be implemented “over a longer period and in a more gradual manner.”
’Bitter pill to swallow’
Egypt has been here before. In 2016, a three-year $12-billion loan program brought sweeping reforms, kicking off the first of a series of currency devaluations that have decimated the Egyptian pound’s value over the years.
Egypt’s poverty rate stood at 29.7 percent in 2020, down slightly from 32.5 percent the previous year in 2019, according to the latest statistics by the country’s CAPMAS agency.
But Gamal said the current IMF-backed reforms have had a “more intense” effect on people.
“Two years ago, we had no trouble affording basics,” said Manar.
“Now, I think twice before buying essentials like food and clothing,” she added.
Earlier this month, the IMF’s managing director Kristalina Georgieva touted the program’s long-term impact, saying Egyptians “will see the benefits of these reforms in a more dynamic, more prosperous Egyptian economy.”
Her remarks came as the IMF began a delayed review of its loan program, which could unlock $1.2 billion in new financing for Egypt.
Economist and capital market specialist Wael El-Nahas described the loan as a “bitter pill to swallow,” but called it “a crucial tool” forcing the government to make “systematic” decisions.
Still, many remain skeptical.
“The government’s promises have never proven true,” Manar said.
Egyptian expatriates send about $30 billion in remittances per year, a major source of foreign currency.
Manar relies on her brother abroad for essentials, including instant coffee which now costs 400 Egyptian pounds (about $8) per jar.
“All I can think about now is what we will do if there are more price increases in the future,” she said.


Iraq blast kills three security personnel: officials

Updated 17 November 2024
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Iraq blast kills three security personnel: officials

A blast from an explosive device on Sunday killed three members of Iraq’s security forces and wounded three others in the northern province of Salaheddin, officials said.
There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attack in Tuz Khurmatu, which borders a province plagued by sporadic jihadist attacks.
Iraq declared victory over the Daesh group in late 2017, but its jihadists remain active in the country, particularly in rural areas.
Sunday’s blast killed an army regiment commander, another officer and a security service member, said Zulfiqar Al-Bayati, mayor of Tuz Khurmatu.
A security official confirmed the death toll to AFP, adding the victims had been in a vehicle when the explosion occurred.
Those killed were members of the Peshmerga forces of the autonomous northern region of Kurdistan, while the wounded were members from the Iraqi army.
The Iraqi defense ministry paid tribute to the three soldiers who “fell as martyrs... while carrying out their duty.”
The Daesh group overran large swathes of Iraq and neighboring Syria in 2014, proclaiming its “caliphate” and launching a reign of terror.
It was defeated in Iraq in 2017 by Iraqi forces backed by a US-led military coalition, and in 2019 lost the last territory it held in Syria to US-backed Kurdish forces.
A report by United Nations experts published in July estimated there were around 1,500 to 3,000 jihadists remaining in Iraq and Syria.


Gaza civil defense says 26 dead, 59 missing after Israeli air strike

Updated 17 November 2024
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Gaza civil defense says 26 dead, 59 missing after Israeli air strike

  • The Gaza health ministry said 43,799 people have been confirmed dead since Oct. 7, 2023

GAZA STRIP: Gaza’s civil defense said 26 people were killed on Sunday, including children, and at least 59 were missing after an Israeli air strike hit a building in the Palestinian territory’s north.
Following the strike early Sunday, 26 bodies were pulled from the rubble of the five-story residential building in Beit Lahia, “including children and women,” civil defense spokesman Mahmud Bassal told AFP.
He added that at least 59 people were still trapped under the debris.
AFP images showed men covered in dust scrambling to reach people under the rubble, while some of the bodies were taken away on a donkey-pulled cart.
Other AFP images showed the flattened building with broken concrete and twisted metal sticking out from the ruins as more bodies covered in blankets lay nearby.
Hamas, which runs the territory, accused Israel of committing a “massacre” which it said is “a continuation of the genocidal war and revenge against unarmed civilians.”
Earlier on Sunday, Gaza’s civil defense said other Israeli strikes killed at least 20 people, including four women and three children, across the war-torn territory.
Hamas-run Gaza’s health ministry on Sunday said the overall death toll in more than 13 months of war had reached 43,846.
The majority of the dead are civilians, according to ministry figures, which the United Nations considers reliable.
Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack that sparked the war resulted in the deaths of 1,206 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally of Israeli official figures.


Hezbollah spokesman killed in Israel strike on Beirut

A Lebanese security source said Hezbollah spokesman Mohammed Afif was killed in an Israeli strike Sunday in central Beirut.
Updated 17 November 2024
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Hezbollah spokesman killed in Israel strike on Beirut

  • “The strike on Ras Al-Nabaa killed Hezbollah media relations official Mohammed Afif,” the security source said
  • Ali Hijazi, secretary-general of the Lebanese branch of the Baath party, “confirmed the death of Hezbollah media official” Afif

BEIRUT: A Lebanese security source said Hezbollah spokesman Mohammed Afif was killed in an Israeli strike Sunday in central Beirut that hit the Lebanese branch of the Syrian Baath party.
“The strike on Ras Al-Nabaa killed Hezbollah media relations official Mohammed Afif,” the security source said, requesting anonymity as they were not authorized to brief the media.
Ali Hijazi, secretary-general of the Lebanese branch of the Baath party, “confirmed the death of Hezbollah media official” Afif, the official National News Agency reported.
The Israeli army declined to comment.
Lebanon’s health ministry said the strike killed one person and wounded three others, adding that the toll was provisional and that work was ongoing to remove rubble from the site of the strike.
Afif for years had been responsible for Hezbollah’s media relations, and provided information to local and foreign journalists under the cover of anonymity.
The NNA said the strike by “enemy aircraft” caused “great destruction,” reporting an unspecified number of people “trapped under the rubble” in Ras Al-Nabaa, an area near the French embassy and a university.
It said “one of the residents of a neighboring building had received a warning call urging evacuation but it was not taken seriously.”
Since the assassination in late September of longtime Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in a huge Israeli strike, Afif had held several press conferences in Beirut’s southern suburbs.
In one such event last month, Afif announced that Hezbollah had launched a drone targeting the residence of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
That press conference was cut short when the Israeli army warned it would strike a building nearby.


Israeli military reports soldier killed in battle north of Gaza on Saturday

Updated 17 November 2024
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Israeli military reports soldier killed in battle north of Gaza on Saturday

CAIRO: The Israeli military said on Sunday that a fighter in the Nachshon Regiment (90), Kfir Brigade, was killed in battle north of Gaza on Saturday.