OPEC+ oil production cut will have muted impact on market: Fitch

Fitch added that oil demand will be increasingly affected by the decarbonization of the global economy in the long term. 
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Updated 11 October 2022
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OPEC+ oil production cut will have muted impact on market: Fitch

RIYADH: The decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to slash crude production by 2 million barrels per day from November will have a muted impact on the global oil market, as the actual output cuts will be smaller, according to a report by rating agency Fitch.

Fitch noted that Saudi Arabia and the UAE will have to make the largest actual production cuts, while other countries in the group known as OPEC+, including Nigeria, will have some room under their respective quotas to hike output. 

“The recent increases in global oil inventories suggest that the market is in a production surplus,” said the report. 

It added: “We expect OPEC+ to target a broad balance in the oil market by changing production quotas and available crude supplies, although it may become increasingly difficult to achieve a consensus among the members due to demand uncertainties and the recession in large developed markets.” 

Even though a recessionary economic outlook will lead to lower oil demand, this has recently been boosted by switches from gas to oil in energy generation, and high prices of natural gases, the report added. 

It further noted that price volatility in the oil market is expected to continue in the short term, driven by geopolitical tensions and further sanctions which may lead to a reduction in Russian exports. 

While the US has been critical of OPEC+’s decision to reduce oil output, President Joe Biden last week announced the release of an additional 10 million barrels from the country’s strategic petroleum reserves to global oil markets beginning in November. 

According to Fitch, a potential conclusion of the Iran nuclear deal could increase oil production in the country, which may significantly shift supply patterns causing large price fluctuations. 

The report, however, noted that oil prices are expected to moderate in the medium and long term as geopolitical tensions will eventually ease, with prices moving closer to full-cycle costs. 

Fitch added that oil demand will be increasingly affected by the decarbonization of the global economy in the long term. 


Egypt allocates Red Sea land for issuing bonds and lowering debt

Updated 25 sec ago
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Egypt allocates Red Sea land for issuing bonds and lowering debt

  • 174 square km plot allocated on Red Sea coast to finance ministry

CAIRO: Egypt has allocated a 174 square km plot on the Red Sea coast to the finance ministry for use in Islamic bond issuances and in efforts to lower the country’s public debt, the official gazette said on Tuesday.
The gazette did not elaborate on how the land would be used, but Egypt, which has been mired in a slow-burning economic crisis, signed a $35 billion deal with the UAE early last year to develop a 170-square-km tract along the Mediterranean coast.
Since then, Egypt has been seeking similar large-scale investments as it tries to overcome the economic crisis.
It has been in talks with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait in a bid to attract major investments, according to investment bankers and news reports.
In tandem, Egypt also plans to issue $2 billion in sukuks, or Islamic bonds, in 2025, Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk told Reuters in April.


Abu Dhabi expects more rapid growth for its financial center

Updated 18 min 53 sec ago
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Abu Dhabi expects more rapid growth for its financial center

  • New operating licenses increased 67% in the first quarter
  • Number of firms registered in the center rose by 32% last year

LONDON: The rush of financial firms setting up in Abu Dhabi to tap the emirate’s wealth funds and Middle East markets will continue at pace, the official in charge of expanding its financial hub has predicted.
Abu Dhabi, which holds 90 percent of the UAE’s oil reserves, has accelerated efforts to diversify its economy, leaning on its vast sovereign funds that together manage almost $2 trillion of capital.
Abu Dhabi Global Markets still lags Dubai, but the number of firms registered in the center rose by 32 percent last year, and the amount of assets managed by firms there grew 245 percent, as the likes of BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, AXA, PGIM and hedge fund Marshall Wace all set up or registered funds there.
Earlier on Tuesday, Harrison Street, a US firm focused on alternative real estate assets with about $56 billion in assets under management, said it was opening an office in Abu Dhabi.
The center reported last week that new operating licenses increased 67 percent in the first quarter of this year, taking the total number of firms there past 2,380.
“We still have very strong growth,” ADGM’s Chief Market Development Officer, Arvind Ramamurthy said, noting that the pipeline of new firms looked strong for the rest of the year, but refrained from giving a forecast for asset growth.
“Will it be 245 percent again this year? I wish. Let’s see,” he said in an interview late on Monday.
Firms from Japan, India, and China are also setting up in growing numbers, including asset managers and financial institutions, as well as crypto and artificial intelligence firms, Ramamurthy said, providing no further details.
With cryptocurrency regulations in place since 2018, Abu Dhabi has become a major center for such investment, with sector heavyweights such as Circle and Coinbase represented there, while Abu Dhabi-backed investment group MGX has recently invested $2 billion worth of crypto tokens — issued by US President Donald Trump’s World Liberty Financial venture — in the world’s biggest crypto exchange, Binance.


Oil demand growth to continue, no peak in sight, OPEC Secretary General says

Updated 30 min 34 sec ago
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Oil demand growth to continue, no peak in sight, OPEC Secretary General says

CALGARY: Oil demand growth will remain robust over the next two and a half decades as the world population grows, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al-Ghais has said.

The organization expects a 24 percent increase in the world’s energy needs between now and 2050, with oil demand surpassing 120 million barrels per day over that time period.

That estimate is in line with the group’s 2024 World Oil Outlook.

“There is no peak in oil demand on the horizon,” Al-Ghais said, speaking at the Global Energy Show in Calgary, Alberta.

He said that OPEC admired what Canada’s oil industry has done to increase its oil output in recent years.

OPEC is unwinding its output cuts at a faster pace than originally anticipated, lifting production by 411,000 barrels per day for May, June and July.

The increases, along with concerns that US President Donald Trump’s trade war will weaken the global economy, have pressured oil prices in recent months.

The US Energy Information Administration said it expected Brent oil prices to fall near $60 a barrel by the end of the year and average $59 a barrel next year, hitting US oil production.

Al-Ghais also said OPEC welcomed recent pushback against what he referred to as unrealistic climate goals, stressing the need to reduce emissions but not pick and choose between energy sources.


Oil Updates — crude gains while markets assess US-China trade talks outcome

Updated 11 June 2025
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Oil Updates — crude gains while markets assess US-China trade talks outcome

  • Markets cautious on US-China trade talks outcome
  • Rising supplies remain a key focus

TOKYO: Oil prices softened on Wednesday as markets assessed the outcome of US-China trade talks, yet to be reviewed by President Donald Trump, with weak oil demand from China and OPEC+ production increases weighing on the market.

Brent crude futures declined 15 cents, or 0.2 percent, to trade at $66.72 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 10 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $64.88 at 9:44 a.m. Saudi time.

US and Chinese officials agreed on a framework to put their trade truce back on track and resolve China’s export restrictions on rare earth minerals and magnets, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Tuesday at the conclusion of two days of intense negotiations in London. The two countries are world’s two largest economies and oil consumers.

“The current (price) corrections can be attributed to a mix of technical profit-taking and caution leading up to the US-China (official) announcement,” said Phillip Nova, senior market analyst Priyanka Sachdeva.

Trump will be briefed on the outcome before approving it, Lutnick added.

“In terms of what it means for crude oil, I think it removes some downside risks, particularly to the Chinese economy and steadies the ship for the US economy — both of which should be supportive for crude oil demand and the price,” said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst for IG.

On the supply side, OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus allies such as Russia, plans to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July as it looks to unwind production cuts for a fourth straight month, with some analysts not expecting regional demand to soak up these excess barrels.

“Greater oil demand within OPEC+ economies – most notably Saudi Arabia – could offset additional supply from the group over the coming months and support oil prices,” said Capital Economics’ climate and commodities economist Hamad Hussain in a note.

“However, given that any boost to demand will be seasonal, we still think that Brent crude prices will fall to $60 (a barrel) by the end of this year.”

Later on Wednesday, markets will be focusing on the weekly US oil inventories report from the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy.

US crude oil stocks fell by 370,000 barrels last week, according to market sources who cited American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.

Analysts polled by Reuters on Monday expected that the EIA report will show US crude oil stockpiles fell by 2 million barrels in the week to June 6, while distillate and gasoline inventories likely rose.


Dollar, stocks muted as investors watch progress in US-China trade talks

Updated 10 June 2025
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Dollar, stocks muted as investors watch progress in US-China trade talks

  • US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said talks in London going well, Trump puts a positive spin on discussions
  • World stocks, as reflected by MSCI All-Country World index traded near record highs, dollar steadied against range of currencies

BOSTON/LONDON: Global stocks and the dollar held steady on Tuesday as trade talks between the United States and China continued into a second day, giving investors some reason to believe tensions between the world's two largest economies may be easing.

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said discussions between the two sides in London were going well, while President Donald Trump on Monday put a positive spin on the talks.

Any progress in the negotiations is likely to provide relief to markets given that Trump's often-shifting tariff announcements and swings in Sino-US ties have undermined the two economies, disrupted supply chains and threatened to hobble global growth.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.06%, to 42,788, the S&P 500 added 0.16%, to 6,015, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.12%, to 19,616.

World stocks, as reflected by the MSCI All-Country World index traded near record highs, while the dollar steadied against a range of currencies.

"While market participants are clearly taking a glass half-full view of the outlook, both on trade policy and more broadly, we don’t think that should be interpreted as a view that tariffs will be fully unwound," said Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics.

Goltermann anticipates US duties on Chinese goods to settle at around 40%, while most analysts have said that the universal 10% levy on imports into the United States is here to stay.

In Europe, the STOXX 600 edged higher, constrained by UBS, whose shares dropped 5.5% as investors worried about the impact of new government proposals to force the Swiss bank to hold $26 billion in extra capital.

Meanwhile, in Tokyo, Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said policymakers were looking at measures to promote domestic ownership of Japanese government bonds, a day after Reuters reported that Japan is considering buying back some super-long government bonds issued in the past at low interest rates.

Japanese government 30-year yields were virtually flat at 2.92%, having retreated from late May's record high of 3.18%.

OPEC plus oil output is rising as members unwind their cuts.

The yen strengthened throughout the day, leaving the dollar roughly unchanged on the day around 144.5 yen, while the euro also turned positive, up 0.2% at $1.144. The pound dropped 0.2% to $1.35 after weak UK employment data.

QUALITY NOT SIZE

Trump's fluid trade policies and worries over Washington's growing debt pile have dented investor confidence in US assets, in turn undermining the dollar, which has already fallen more than 8% this year.

"It's not that the Americans are blowing up their fiscal situation because the deficit is going to remain more or less stable. But the quality of the deficit has degenerated," Samy Chaar, an economist at Lombard Odier, said.

"If you invest, and spend on productive investments, you'll get macro payoffs, because you're going to develop an industry, you're going to strengthen your economy, you're going to create jobs, you have a payoff. If you spend by basically reducing revenues because you cut taxes on people who don't need the money, they won't be consuming more, or investing more, so the macro payoff is more limited," he said.

US Treasuries were yielding around 4.44%, down 4 basis points on the day.

Data on US consumer inflation for May due out on Wednesday could show the impact of tariffs on goods prices.

The producer price index report will be released a day later.

"May's US CPI and PPI data will be scrutinized for signs of lingering inflationary pressures," said Convera's FX and macro strategist Kevin Ford.

"If core CPI remains elevated, expectations for rate cuts could be pushed beyond the June 18 FOMC meeting."

Traders expect the Federal Reserve to leave rates unchanged at its policy meeting next week. Just 44 bps worth of easing have been priced in by December.

In commodity markets, oil prices rose on the back of optimism that the US-China talks could ease trade tensions and improve demand for energy, pushing Brent crude up 0.4% to $67.30 a barrel. Spot gold rose 0.5% to $3,344 an ounce.