ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s fertility rate has seen a decline from six live births per woman in 1994 to 3.6 per woman in 2024, the United Nations World Fertility Report 2024 said.

Pakistan launched its first population control program in the 1950s but has lagged far behind other countries in effectively implementing or developing its understanding of population control. In 1947, at the time of the country’s inception, Pakistan’s population was 31 million, which reached 241 million as per the 2023 census. 

Pakistan has implemented various measures to control its population in recent years, including family planning programs, contraceptive distribution and educational campaigns in rural areas. The government has also collaborated with international organizations like the UN Population Fund and prioritized population control by allocating more funds to welfare programs. 

However, challenges remain due to cultural and religious barriers, lack of education and gender inequality. According to UN projections, Pakistan’s population will grow to over 380 million by the year 2050, surpassing the United States, Indonesia, Brazil, and Russia, and making it the world’s third largest country behind India and China.

“Three other country examples … had fertility levels still above six live births per woman in 1994, declining by 2024 to 3.6 in Pakistan, 3.9 in Ethiopia and 4.4 in Nigeria,” the new UN report said, predicting that the number of live births in Pakistan would decline further to 2.50 in 2054. 

For countries such as Pakistan, Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt and Nigeria, fertility was likely to remain above 2.1 births per woman through 2054, potentially reaching below-replacement fertility later in the century or beyond 2100. Pakistan along with Ethiopia, Congo, Egypt and Nigeria also saw 43 percent of the world’s total births in 2024.

These countries, according to the UN, were in the early or intermediate stage of their fertility transitions “when fertility levels have started to decline but remain above the replacement level through 2054.” 

“Reducing adolescent birth rates through targeted interventions offers profound socioeconomic benefits, that can also further accelerate fertility declines. Reducing growth in the numbers of live births in the future would allow governments and families to allocate resources more efficiently to invest in children and adolescent health and well-being,” the report said. 

“In the lives of individual girls and young women, avoiding very early childbearing might also open opportunities for further education, employment and fulfillment of other life aspirations.”

The UN also called for efforts to end child marriages, improve access to sexual and reproductive health-care services, eliminate gender-based violence, and improve maternal care for young mothers.

“Governments should also strengthen laws and enforcement mechanisms to protect the rights of girls and women including laws to ban child marriage and laws and regulations that guarantee full and equal access to sexual and reproductive health care, information and education.”

Around 1.8 billion people or 22 percent of the global population reside in 63 countries currently undergoing demographic transitions, with fertility rates expected to decline to low levels by 2054, the report said.

KARACHI: Pakistan’s consumer inflation rate fell to its lowest in more than nine years, dropping to 2.4% year-on-year in January, the statistics bureau said on Monday.

Inflation has cooled significantly, easing from 28.3% in January 2024.

Consumer prices in January rose 0.2% from the month before, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.

The South Asian country, currently bolstered by a $7 billion facility from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) granted in September, is navigating an economic recovery. The IMF is set to review Pakistan’s progress by March, with the government and central bank expressing confidence about meeting its targets.

“Inflation is lower because of the statistical base effect, also supported by currency stability and lower food and energy prices,” said Adnan Sami Sheikh, assistant vice president of research at Pakistan Kuwait Investment Company.

Pakistan’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 12% last week, as inflation eases and growth looks set to pick up after 1,000 basis points of rate cuts over the last six months.

The State Bank of Pakistan has slashed rates from an all-time high of 22% last June, one of the most aggressive moves among central banks in emerging markets and exceeding its 625 bps of rate cuts in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Pakistan’s consumer inflation rate fell to 4.1% in December, its lowest in more than six years, helped by favorable base effects. That was below the government’s forecast and down from a multi-decade high of around 40% in May 2023.

After the policy rate decision, central bank Governor Jameel Ahmad told a press conference that inflation would ease further in January but noted core inflation remained elevated.

He forecast full-year inflation in the year to June would average 5.5%-7.5%.