RIYADH: Banks in the Gulf Cooperation Council region are expected to maintain strong asset quality, profitability, and ample liquidity through 2025, according to a new report by S&P Global.  

The global credit rating agency highlighted the robust performance of the region’s banking sector, which it attributes to solid capitalization and well-managed balance sheets, despite potential challenges from lower interest rates.  

S&P Global said that while the outlook for GCC banks remains positive, heightened geopolitical risks or a sharp drop in oil prices could pose threats to their creditworthiness. However, the agency added that the banks are likely to demonstrate resilience in the face of such adverse scenarios, reflected in their currently high ratings. 

The report forecasts that Brent crude oil will average $75 per barrel from the fourth quarter of the year through 2027, supporting GCC economies.  

“In our view, GCC countries will also benefit from the implementation of economic transformation projects (in Saudi Arabia), the expansion of gas production (in Qatar), reform implementations (in Bahrain and Oman), and the non-oil economy’s good performance (in Bahrain and the UAE),” the report said.
 
Despite expected interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, and mirrored reductions by GCC central banks, S&P Global predicts a manageable impact on bank margins.  

The decline in rates could reduce funding costs and mitigate unrealized losses in securities portfolios, with an estimated margin impact ranging from 20-60 basis points, depending on the country. 

GCC banks maintain strong capitalization levels, which continue to underpin their overall creditworthiness, according to the report.  

Shareholder support has been a key factor, with dividend payouts generally below 50 percent, allowing banks to retain profits and stabilize their capital positions. 

The quality of capital remains robust, with limited reliance on hybrid instruments. However, S&P Global anticipates an increase in hybrid issuance by GCC banks over 2025-2026, as institutions seek to take advantage of lower interest rates and address the first call dates of previously issued instruments. 

“GCC banks are mainly funded by domestic deposits, which have proved stable through periods of mild stress, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and previous instances of geopolitical risk,” the report added. 

It also outlined potential risks stemming from ongoing regional conflicts. 

S&P Global conducted stress tests on GCC banks, analyzing scenarios ranging from modest to severe geopolitical escalations.  

In severe cases, involving broader regional conflict and disruptions to trade routes, the impact could extend to energy prices and macroeconomic stability, affecting both sovereign and banking sector credit metrics. 

S&P Global said despite these challenges, the GCC banking sector’s strong efficiency, driven by low labor costs and increasing digitalization, provides a solid foundation for continued growth and resilience through 2025. 

RIYADH: The number of jobs in the global energy sector reached 68 million in 2023, representing a 3.8 percent rise compared to the previous year, according to an analysis. 

In its latest report, the International Energy Agency said that the sector added 2.5 million jobs worldwide in 2023, driven by a wave of investment in manufacturing eco-conscious technologies. 

The IEA released its study at a time when international leaders have rallied in Baku, Azerbaijan, for COP29, where discussions are going on to elevate renewable energy growth globally to tackle climate challenges. 

During the opening ceremony of COP29 on Nov. 11, Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, affirmed the growth of the renewable sector and said that clean energy infrastructure investments are expected to reach $2 trillion in 2024, nearly double that of fossil fuels.

“The global energy sector has been a powerful engine of job growth around the world in recent years, and as the energy system continues to transform and grow, rising demand for skilled energy workers is a given,” said the IEA’s Director of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks, Laura Cozzi. 

Clean energy sector leading growth

According to the IEA, employment in the clean energy sector increased by 1.5 million last year and contributed as much as 10 percent of economy-wide job growth in the leading markets for clean technologies. 

The report said that the solar PV industry added over half a million new jobs, spurred by record new installations, while employment in electric vehicle manufacturing and batteries grew by 410,000 as sales reached nearly 20 percent of the global car market. 

Even though several wind manufacturers implemented layoffs as rising costs contributed to a slower-than-anticipated offshore project pipeline, total employment in the sector still climbed as a record number of new projects entered construction. 

The IEA said that jobs in the oil and gas supply sector increased by around 3 percent, or 600,000, in 2023 after a period of cautious post-pandemic rehiring, while global coal employment fell for the third year in a row, declining by around 1 percent year on year. 

“Global coal employment fell in both supply and power, largely due to continued mining productivity gains and a slowdown in the pipeline of new coal-fired power plants compared with the highs of the last decade,” said the report. 

Employment in manufacturing vehicles with internal combustion engines rose by 440,000 positions, just outstripping job additions in EVs. 

In China, clean energy made up over 90 percent of energy job growth, while fossil fuels accounted for 80 percent of the gains in the Middle East.

The analysis also said that the growth in energy jobs was led by manufacturing — diverging from previous years when it was generally led by construction and installation. 

“This largely reflects the 70 percent rise in clean energy manufacturing investment in 2023 to $200 billion as firms responded to increasing demand for clean energy technologies and new policies,” added IEA. 

Skill shortage continues in energy sector 

According to the report, shortages of skilled workers remain a major concern for employers looking to hire in the global energy industry.

The IEA said that the lack of skilled workers in many parts of the industry — particularly those requiring high degrees of specialization, such as grids and nuclear power — remains a substantial bottleneck for the sector. 

A survey conducted by the agency found that over 190 energy employers across 27 countries reported plans to hire but had difficulties finding qualified applicants for nearly all occupation categories. 

“Governments, the private sector, and educational and training institutions must work together to improve the hiring pipeline, which will play an important role in shaping our energy future,” said Cozzi. 

The report added that intense competition for talent in clean energy sectors is prompting firms to hire aggressively in anticipation of future growth — a tactic that could prove effective but may also leave some companies exposed to uncertainties related to project flows and changing policies. 

The analysis said many firms facing shortages of qualified applicants are also increasing on-the-job training to deliver these skills. 

According to the IEA, countries transitioning to clean energy are experiencing substantial employment growth in the sector. In 2023, job creation in clean energy accounted for over 10 percent of overall job growth in China and 4 to 6 percent in economies such as the US, EU, and Japan.

The analysis added that clean energy’s share of new jobs is below 2 percent in many emerging and developing economies. 

In September, another report released by the US Department of Energy revealed that the clean energy sector in the country added 142,000 jobs in 2023, representing a rise of 4.2 percent compared to the previous year. 

In October, the Indian government said that the total number of jobs in the country’s renewable energy sector reached over 1 million by the end of 2023, led by hydropower which provides 453,000 employment opportunities in the Asian nation. 

The IEA added that wages in the energy sector are rising, reflecting increasing competition for skilled workers. 

“After real wages fell in many regions in 2022, growth resumed in much of the world in 2023, though absolute wages generally remain below pre-pandemic levels. Wages for energy-specific roles have broadly fared better than those for more generic occupations relevant to the energy sector, notably for technicians,” said the report. 

The analysis revealed that the rising wages in the energy sector are partially a response to skills gaps, as firms aim to attract new workers from within and outside the industry. 

The IEA added that clean energy wage increases were, on average, greater than those in fossil fuels, even in major oil, gas, and coal-producing countries. 

Future outlook

According to the IEA, employment in the energy sector is set to grow by 3 percent in 2024, a slowdown compared with last year due to the impacts of tight labor markets, elevated interest rates, and changes in the expected pipeline of new energy projects.

“While clean energy firms seem set to take more bullish positions on hiring in anticipation of growth, less diversified fossil fuel firms have been remaining cautious for now. As a result, fossil fuel job growth is expected to stall in 2024,” said the agency.