LIVE: Future Investment Initiative - Day One

More than 6,000 of the world’s leading decisionmakers, policymakers, investors, entrepreneurs and young leaders are attending the event. (Supplied)
Short Url
Updated 25 October 2022
Follow

LIVE: Future Investment Initiative - Day One

  • Three-day FII will have the theme ‘Investing In Humanity: Enabling a New Global Order’

DUBAI: Yasir Al-Rumayyan, Governor of the Public Investment Fund (PIF) and Chairman of the Future Investment Initiative Institute (FII Institute), said the global community must learn how to manage crisis and not be managed by it during his opening remarks for the Future Investment Initiative (FII) in Riyadh.

This year’s three-day FII, with more than 6,000 of the world’s leading decisionmakers, policymakers, investors, entrepreneurs and young leaders in attendance, are looking to shape the future of the global economy with the theme ‘Investing In Humanity: Enabling a New Global Order.’

“In recent decades, industries as varied as healthcare, telecommunication, energy, retailer have unprecedented of change. The global pandemic has accelerated that change,” Al-Rumayyan said in his welcoming speech.

A discussion in the morning will also revisit the IPSOS survey on what people consider as their priorities in life, that was first discussed in New York in September at a special meeting of the FII Forum.

There will also be presentations by Nobel laureates in a session on what frameworks are necessary to better support human progress.

Other opening day sessions include discussion on the new world order, a special video address from Mukesh Ambani, chairman and managing director of Reliance Industries, and a community discussion among top CEOs including Khaldoon Khalifa Al-Mubarak, managing director and Group CEO of Mubadala Investment Company, Jamie Dimon, chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co, Catherine MacGregor, CEO of ENGIE, Noel Quinn, Group CEO of HSBC Holdings ; Sara Menker, founder and CEO of GRO Intelligence and David Solomon, chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs.


As it happens: The following are live updates on the highlights of the opening day at FII 6th edition. (All timings are GMT)

16:00 With its strong economic growth posted after the pandemic, Saudi Arabia is a safe place for investments — especially those focusing on long-term value creation, according to Faisal Al-Ibrahim, the Kingdom’s minister of Economy and Planning

15:45 Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said on Tuesday some countries were using their emergency stocks to manipulate markets when their purpose should be to mitigate any shortages of supply.

15:00 Khalid Al-Falih, Saudi Arabia’s minister of investment, tells the froum the energy crisis in Europe will accelerate the oil and gas sector’s transition to renewables and hydrogen.

14:30 Yassir Al-Rumayyan says the world is witnessing the highest inflation rate in 40 years, and it is necessary to use proper data analysis to combat this crisis.

Khalid Al-Falih on Saudi Arabi’s role as a bridge between East and West and North and South: “I think we went too far with globalization, there was no buffer… every supply chain was being run to lowest cost, most efficiency, just-in-time. I think that was a mistake in retrospect, we need to build buffer capacity and diversification.”

Khalid Al-Falih, Saudi Arabia’s minister of investment, on the recent US-Saudi Arabia issue: “It is a blip that we are seeing. In the long term we are solid allies… we are going to get over this recent spat which I think was unwarranted.”

Paul Chan, financial secretary of Hong Kong: “One of the key outcomes from the perspective of Hong Kong [from the Chinese Communist Party] is the reconfirmation of the one country, two systems to be practiced in Hong Kong. It is not for expedience, but part of the constitution of the mainland. Under the one country, two systems Hongkong will continue to practice the capitalist system, common law system, an independent judiciary… from an investor’s perspective Hong Kong will continue to function as a free international financial center.”

Adonis Georgiadis, Greek minister of development: “2023 will be a very challenging year [for Greece]. I don’t want to make predictions because I do not know what will happen in the war in Ukraine. But Greece is well-prepared and we will manage to sustain ourselves even in a challenging year [2023].”

“Nobody is happy with interest rates going up… but our national debt is not a real fear. It is rapidly going down, and continues to go down.”

Ville Skinnari, minister for development cooperation and foreign trade of Finland: “We are well-prepared to all kinds of crisis. When COVID-19 came, we were ready. And of course when it comes to comprehensive security, I think it goes all the way education system, healthcare system, welfare society that we are well-prepared.”

“The NATO approach with Sweden is a natural step further after becoming member of EU and a closer ally of NATO as well. But at the end of the day it is a matter of comprehensive security for the Nordic countries. Of course we can add value when it comes to technologies, when it comes to clean transition.”

“Finland and Saudi Arabia complete each other in many ways, and I think it is really great to see how advanced and ambitious Saudi Arabia and the whole Gulf region is.”

Khalid Al-Falih, Saudi Arabia’s minister investment: “The frequency [of disruptions] has accelerated. It is real, it is strong and it is worrying. But I would like to put it in the context of long-term transition that indeed had been accelerating and are converging in a way that is both challenging but opportunistic at the same time, which gives us an opportunity to be pro-active.”

“I think the first transition that is real and is unfolding in front of our eyes is the political insecurity transition. Of course Europe is the ultimate manifestation of this with the war with Ukraine, but we have seen it come to head between China and Taiwan, when the speaker of the US House [of Representatives] was visiting and of course we see this long-term trend of countries and regions building up securities, nationalism verses internationalism. So we have this transition taking place and I believe and it’s going to continue and perhaps to continue accelerate.”

“In addition to this, you have an energy transition that’s inevitable to happen, of course oil and gas fossils and fuels are depletable and we had to do this anyways. But climate changes has pushed us to accelerate it and I think again that crisis in Europe that is only going to accelerate the energy transition towards renewables and hydrogen and other fuels of the future that are being developed as we speak.”

“The third transition is around trade and supply chain, and here I put it in the context with globalization and de-globalization to a certain degree that has started to happen and that will continue to happen.”

“If you think of all of these, each one them is subjecting countries, companies and individuals to an insurance premium. The security transition that we talked about, you know the per unit of GDP almost every country on the planet is spending more on defense, defense spending, technology and industries are becoming core to every country’s industrial today, is no longer a shunned business that something we have to deal with, and it certainly is very, very expensive.”

“These three underpin fourth transition, which is the economic transition. Higher inflation, inflation, and higher premiums that we are paying for all of this is setting the stage for prolonged lower income and growth.”

“But under all of this, there are plenty of opportunities in technology, investment, for countries and hubs to be created to deal with the new world order. I believe Saudi Arabia has taken the steps six years ago. Vision 2030 was designed for the world we live in today and the world we are going to live in 10-15 years from now.”

“If you want the definition of proactive, look at 2016 what did His Royal Highness Prince Mohammed bin Salman unveiled in Vision 2030 and read it and find it out whether rationally deals with the realities of today and I believe it does.”

0934: The New Global Order: View From The State Room plenary session with Khalid Al-Falih, minister of investment of Saudi Arabia, Paul Chan, financial secretary of Hong Kong, Adonis Georgiadis, minister of development of Greece, Ville Skinnari, minister for development cooperation and foreign trade of Finland and George Osborne, partner at Robey Warshaw.

Yasir Alrumayyan: “For the Public Investment Fund we have different mandates. One of the main mandates that we have is to deploy investments in domestic economy, so we said we will deploy $40 billion to $50 billion in annual basis on not only green projects but green field projects that would have an impact on the economy.”

“So we are looking at our bottom line, we are looking at the economic multiplier: what good these projects would do to the economy, what kind of jobs it will create, the quality of these jobs and the quantity of these jobs.”

“Then of course we have the international investments that we do with most of the people around this table and in this room, and again it should have an impact…  the impact that I am talking about… is how we can look and continue transition of energy but at the same time not to harm the world.”

“The geopolitical stuff is a fact, that is what is happening right now, today, in the world. So you have to have the right partners, but you have to invest in yourself, going back to the local content that everybody should have. Going back to the kinds and types of wars that human being had historically and still having until today, it is a combination, you cannot take one and versus the other, you should work in the middle.”

Dr. Patrice Motsepe, founder and executive chairman of African Rainbow Minerals on aiming for a 65 percent local supply chain: “Every country has to look at what is the best interest of its citizens. There can be no doubt that globalization… to encourage trade, to encourage countries build partnerships that are mutually beneficiable… I think that is very, very important.”

Yasir Alrumayyan, governor of the Public Investment Fund: “Checking out is not a solution, extreme is not a solution too… Like anything in life, there are always risks right? I think doing one’s part is the most important thing.”

“The problem is globalization and the geo-economics it’s happening now because of weaponizing some of the things we shouldn’t be touching.”

What happened between many countries, by banning certain products and services and these kinds of things instead of the expansion on the economies that we have witnessed in the past two decades. Now we’re going backward instead of moving forward.”

“Every country now has to have its full supply chain, otherwise, it is not gonna work out… let’s say in here in Saudi, we want to have at least a minimum 65 percent of our supply chain in a local content, that is part of the Vision 2030 that we mentioned.

Khaldoon Khalifa Al-Mubarak, managing director and Group CEO, Mubadala Investment Company: “When we are talking about the challenges of the world, three principles come to my mind: transparency, empathy and inclusion.”

“The last three years we have seen two anomalous black swan events that have impacted every country, every person in one way. It’s quite remarkable really, what we’ve seen in the last three years and the repercussions of these two, one being COVID-19 and obviously the war.

“These two events and the repercussions of what we’re seeing from these two events, we’re still I think coming to grips with them. We’re still finding our way out of COVID-19, some countries have not left as you all know. “

“So that reset post-COVID-19 combined with I think this energy crisis, and by the way let’s be clear the energy crisis was happening anyway, it’s just kind of sped up due to the events of this year… Three years ago, if you were in this conference the word hydrocarbon was evil. The energy transition, we all agree [that] climate challenges is the biggest challenge and the energy transition is happening. But I also believe that hydrocarbons are part of the solution.”

“A lot of the challenges we are facing today when it comes to the energy supply are caused by lack of investment created by the inability to many of the financiers, investment institutions, energy companies to invest in critical supply chains that would have in fact helped elevate a big part of problem dealing with today.”

“We cannot deny we are in a very difficult crisis from a global perspective, and in my view it takes in many occasions a crisis to work yourself out of it and to start resetting some of the issues that created the crisis to start with. You have to hit a wall. I think whether we are going to a recession or not from the global perspective there’s no doubt there’s a reset there’s absolutely necessary and I think it’s going to be happening within the next 12 to 24 months.”

0810: The New Global Order: View From The Board Of Changemakers plenary session with Yasir Alrumayyan, governor of the Public Investment Fund; Khaldoon Khalifa Al-Mubarak, managing director and Group CEO, Mubadala Investment Company; Ray Dalio, founder, CIO Mentor and member of the board of Bridgewater Associates; Catherine MacGregor, CEO of ENGIE; David Solomon, chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs; Dr. Patrice Motsepe, founder and executive chairman of African Rainbow Minerals; Jamie Dimon, chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Stephen A. Schwarzman, chairman, CEO and co-founder of Blackstone.

0755: Mukesh Ambani, chairman and managing director of Reliance Industries, gives his special video address.

“The world is passing through changes unseen in human history. I shall mention four transformative transitions: energy transition – from fossil to renewable; technology transition – from physical to digital; economic transition – from West to East and demographic transition – from aging nations to young nations.”

“These transitions have set the stage for a new global order. In each of these transitions we see Saudi Arabia and India along with other nations in the East and Global South have been a driving force.”

“The transition from fossil fuel to renewable cannot and will not happen suddenly or in a short time.”

“Investments in oil and gas should not continue to fall. If that happens it will impact global growth, global economy and eventually the well-being of the people.”

0711: Ray Dalio, founder, CIO Mentor and member of the board of Bridgewater Associates, sits down with CNN anchor Richard Quest on the plenary session ‘Welcome To The New Global Order.’

“About five years ago there were three major things that were happening in our lifetime that have not happened before… those three basic things were the amount of printing of money and the creation of debt, the amount of internal conflict and international conflict.”

“We are creating unsound finances because we print a lot of money. We want to spend more money than we have. It is like a human being, same for government. The only difference between a human being and government is they print money.”

“I worry how about how we are with each other. Problems always exist, but in this world where there is great domestic conflict, and there is great international conflict because of these differences. History has shown these patterns.”

“We are creating unsound finances because we print a lot of money. We want to spend more money than we have. It is like a human being, same for government. The only difference between a human being and government is they print money.”

“I worry how about how we are with each other. Problems always exist, but in this world where there is great domestic conflict, and there is great international conflict because of these differences. History has shown these patterns.”

0708: Kailash Satyarthi, founder of Kailash Satyarthi Children’s Foundation and Nobel Peace Prize Laureate for 2014: “We all say children are our future, but are we really investing in that future? Are we really investing in childhood? Everything can wait, but not the childhood.”

“Today I am speaking in behalf of millions of children who don’t have their childhood, they are put into slavery and prostitution and so on. So first of all we have to invest in childhood if we are investing in the future.”

“We have to get a fair share for children… a fair share in budget allocation, a fair share in policies and fair share in social protection programs.”

“What is needed is additional $53 billion dollars to ensure education, healthcare and protection for children in all low-income countries… along with protection for new mothers.”

“If we have to think of a new world order which is based on humanity, then have to invest in humanity, invest in children to begin with.”

“We have to globalize compassion… for that we have to inculcate compassionate leadership in businesses, in society, in politics.”

0700: Dasho Tshering Tobgay, former prime minister of Bhutan: “Where would I invest in, to secure humanity? I would invest in the world because we need a viable place to live in for our future… as an environmentalist I have been passionate about this.”

“I have gone through the priorities report… and there environment, global warming comes at a distant number 8. I was surprised but it gave me hope also. What it told me is you have to address the current needs of the people if you want to take care of climate change, fight climate change.”

“You can’t just expect everybody to become environmentalists if their immediate needs are not met.”

“If we can achieve a certain level of prosperity, then we, all of us, would be more aligned towards fighting climate change.”

“The other reason for hope… is we have the means for common prosperity.”

0650: Leymah Roberta Gbowee: “We should begin to reduce the gap in humanitarian financing.”

“We live in a time where we’ve seen all kinds of innovation. Robots can talk, we don’t need people to do some of the things … in order for us to really begin to get to where really need to get to is to start to do realignment … and some of the basic realignment we can do is to put money where our mouths are,” the 2011 Nobel laureate said.

“That kind of investment also means investing in local communities… you have to go back to the communities where you have the needs, nothing is going there, nothing is trickling.”

0645: Discussions for the opening plenary ‘Our Humanity, Our Priority: A Conversation Among Nobel Laureates’ with Dasho Tshering Tobgay, former prime minister of Bhutan; Leymah Roberta Gbowee, the founder and president of the Gbowee Peace Foundation Africa and Nobel Peace Prize Laureate for 2011 and Kailash Satyarthi, founder of Kailash Satyarthi Children’s Foundation and Nobel Peace Prize Laureate 2014 as speakers.

0635: Yasir Al-Rumayyan, Governor of the Public Investment Fund and Chairman of the Future Investment Initiative Institute (FII Institute), makes his opening remarks.

“Just last month at the FII Priority Summit in New York, we learned that key issues like the cost of living, poverty and unemployment are top concerns across 13 countries. We need to learn how to manage crisis and not to be managed by crisis,” Al-Rumayyan said. “In recent decades, industries as varied as healthcare, telecommunication, energy, retailer have unprecedented of change. The global pandemic has accelerated that change,” he said in his speech.

“We can deal with global problems like climate change through data driven approach,” Al-Rumayyan added, noting that PIF was the first sovereign wealth fund to issue green bonds.

“We cannot do it all alone as investors and entrepreneurs,” the FII Institute chairman said. “We must create quality jobs in a knowledge-based economy … the right partnership will enable us to fulfill our ambitions over the long term.”

“The risk can seem very significant but we can overcome these challenges if we acted like one, through partnerships that I’d like to see here in the FII. The new global order will be set by the discussions we have here in the FII.”

0633: Richard Attias, CEO of FII Initiative, FII 2022 is one of the world’s first carbon-neutral event as part of “our commitment of sustainability.” “Making an impact on humanity is the very reason we are all here today. Our world is facing unprecedented threats but it is also a unique time of new opportunities. We are on the road to a new global order,” he said.

0618: Part of the opening proceedings for the Future Investment Initiative this year features a video presentation of the current global issues including war, famine and environmental degradation.

0608: Attendees get settled as the Future Investment Initiative opening events are about to start.


Pakistan, Saudi Arabia sign agreement to boost cooperation in public sector auditing

Updated 03 February 2025
Follow

Pakistan, Saudi Arabia sign agreement to boost cooperation in public sector auditing

  • Development comes during a visit to Pakistan by a Saudi General Court of Audit delegation, led by Hussam bin Abdulmohsen Al-Angari
  • Auditor General of Pakistan’s office says both sides agreed to collaborate on training programs, exchange of trainers to tackle audit challenges

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have signed a Memorandum of Understanding to increase collaboration in public sector auditing through enhanced cooperation between audit institutions of both countries as well as training programs and the exchange of trainers, a spokesperson for the Auditor-General of Pakistan’s office said on Monday.

The development comes during a four-day visit to Pakistan by a delegation of Saudi Arabia’s General Court of Audit, led by GCA President Hussam bin Abdulmohsen Al-Angari, which arrived on Sunday.

The agreement was signed during AGP Muhammad Ajmal Gondal’s meeting with the Saudi delegates, aiming to strengthen audit cooperation, enhance knowledge-sharing, and improve governance, transparency and accountability in government spending.

Muhammad Raza Irfan, a public relations officer at the AGP’s office, told Arab News the agreement will not only strengthen professional relations between auditing institutions of both countries, but also further promote bilateral cooperation between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

“This collaboration marks a significant step toward fostering international cooperation in auditing,” AGP Gondal was quoted as saying in a statement issued from his office.

“The exchange of ideas and methodologies will undoubtedly strengthen our capacity to meet emerging challenges and set new benchmarks for public accountability.”

Discussions at Monday’s meeting focused on fostering closer ties between the Supreme Audit Institutions of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, sharing innovative audit methodologies, and planning collaborative initiatives for the future, according to the AGP office.

The two sides agreed to share best practices in audit standards, performance audits, and citizen participatory audits, and expand expertise in thematic, environmental and impact audits.

“It also agreed to collaborate on training programs, exchange trainers, address emerging auditing challenges and plan cooperative audits, including a performance audit on the oil and gas sector in 2025,” the statement read.

Both sides reaffirmed their shared commitment to promoting transparency, accountability and excellence in public sector auditing.

Dr. Alangari praised Pakistan’s initiatives in modernizing audit practices and expressed his enthusiasm for future collaborations, according to the AGP office.

“The partnership between our two SAIs is a testament to the shared vision of accountability and transparency,” the GCA president was quoted as saying.

“We are eager to build upon this momentum and address challenges collectively, ensuring value addition to public sector auditing globally.”

The meeting underscored the importance of international collaboration to address emerging challenges and leverage innovative technologies in auditing.

“The Saudi side also announced the launch of the second phase of the Fund for Improved SAI Performance, which is scheduled for mid-February,” the statement said.

“The office of the AGP was also offered to apply for the second phase of FISP, which provides funds of up to $40,000.”

The GCA’s FISP initiative is aimed at providing funding to SAIs in developing countries to help them improve their performance and capacity in conducting audits and upholding accountability within their respective governments.

Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are close regional partners and economic allies, and both countries signed 34 agreements worth $2.8 billion in October last year. The Kingdom is home to over 2 million Pakistani expatriates, serving as the top destination for remittances for the cash-strapped South Asian country.


Closing Bell: Saudi indices close in red at 12,377

Updated 03 February 2025
Follow

Closing Bell: Saudi indices close in red at 12,377

  • MSCI Tadawul Index dropped by 3.79 points, or 0.25%, to close at 1,541.82
  • Parallel market Nomu lost 48.69 points, or 0.16%, to close at 31,056.38

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index dropped on Monday, losing 32.84 points, or 0.26 percent, to close at 12,377.03.  

The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR6.55 billion ($1.75 billion), as 65 of the listed stocks advanced, while 170 retreated.   

The MSCI Tadawul Index also dropped by 3.79 points, or 0.25 percent, to close at 1,541.82.  

The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu lost 48.69 points, or 0.16 percent, to close at 31,056.38. This comes as 37 of the listed stocks advanced and 43 retreated.  

Mutakamela Insurance Co. was the best-performing stock of the day, with its share price surging by 4.88 percent to SR18.90.  

Other top performers included Saudi Arabian Cooperative Insurance Co., which saw its share price rise by 4.59 percent to SR18.70, and Saudi Cable Co., which saw a 3.30 percent increase to SR131.60.  

Arriyadh Development Co. rose 3.01 percent to SR35.95, while Al Mawarid Manpower Co. gained 2.87 percent to SR136. 

The National Co. for Glass Industries saw the steepest decline of the day, with its share price easing 3.72 percent to close at SR54.40. 

Elm Co. fell 2.84 percent to SR1,123, while Mouwasat Medical Services Co. dropped 2.78 percent to SR87.50. 

Bawan Co. also faced losses, with its share price dipping 2.75 percent to SR56.50, while Saudi Awwal Bank saw a 2.46 percent decline to settle at SR35.75. 

Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co. announced that its subsidiary, Tadawul Advanced Solutions Co., also known as WAMID, has finalized the acquisition of the remaining 49 percent stake in Direct Financial Network Co., completing the regulatory requirements on Feb.2. 

The shares, previously owned by National Two Ventures, were acquired for SR220.5 million, making WAMID the sole owner of DirectFN. 

The transaction follows WAMID’s initial purchase of a 51 percent stake in DirectFN in May 2023 for SR134 million. 

With this latest acquisition, WAMID now holds full ownership of the financial technology company, aligning with Saudi Tadawul Group’s strategy to enhance its technological and financial services offerings. 

Saudi Tadawul Group Holding Co.’s share price saw a slight 0.76 percent dip on Monday to settle at SR209.80. 

Riyad Bank announced its financial results for 2024, posting a 15.9 increase in net profit, reaching SR9.32 billion, up from SR8.04 billion in 2023. 

The growth was driven by an 18.16 percent rise in total income from special commissions, which reached SR21.62 billion, supported by higher income from loans and investments. 

Total operating profit rose 8.71 percent to SR17.28 billion, bolstered by increases in fee income, exchange income, and gains on non-trading investments. 

Operating expenses related to credit losses and asset impairments dropped 17.2 percent to SR1.63 billion, reflecting improved asset quality. 

Assets grew by 16.42 percent to SR450.37 billion, with loans and advances rising 16.65 percent to SR320.08 billion. 

Client deposits also increased significantly, up 20.21 percent to SR306.42 billion. Earnings per share rose from SR2.58 in 2023 to SR3.01 in 2024. 

Riyad Bank saw a 0.34 percent increase in its share price on Monday to reach SR29.60. 


OPEC+ reaffirms commitment to production cuts

Updated 03 February 2025
Follow

OPEC+ reaffirms commitment to production cuts

  • Meeting reviewed crude oil production data for November and December
  • OPEC welcomed renewed pledges from overproducing countries to achieve full compliance with production targets

RIYADH: OPEC+ members reaffirmed their commitment to production cuts aimed at maintaining stability in the global oil market during a meeting held on Monday.

The 58th Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee session, conducted via videoconference, reviewed crude oil production data for November and December 2024 and highlighted the strong overall compliance by both OPEC and non-OPEC countries involved in the Declaration of Cooperation.

The committee reiterated its commitment to the DoC, which is set to extend through the end of 2026. It also commended Kazakhstan and Iraq for their improved compliance, including the additional voluntary production adjustments they made.

OPEC also welcomed the renewed pledges from overproducing countries to achieve full compliance with production targets.

These countries are expected to submit updated compensation schedules to the OPEC Secretariat by the end of February 2025, covering the overproduced volumes since January 2024.

The committee stressed its ongoing role in monitoring adherence to production adjustments. It will continue to track additional voluntary production cuts announced by participating OPEC and non-OPEC nations, in line with the decisions made during the 52nd JMMC meeting on Feb. 1, 2024.

In a procedural update, the committee announced that, effective Feb. 1, 2025, Kpler, OilX, and ESAI will replace Rystad Energy and the Energy Information Administration as secondary sources for assessing crude oil production and compliance with the DoC.

The next JMMC meeting is scheduled for April 5, 2025.


Oil Updates — prices gain as Trump tariffs stoke supply worries

Updated 03 February 2025
Follow

Oil Updates — prices gain as Trump tariffs stoke supply worries

LONDON: Oil prices rose on Monday after US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, raising fears of supply disruption, though gains were capped by concern over what could be an economically damaging trade war.

Brent crude futures rose $1.28, or 1.7 percent, to $76.95 a barrel by 3:32 p.m. Saudi time after touching a high of $77.34.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up $1.89, or 2.6 percent, at $74.42 after touching their highest since Jan. 24 at $75.18.

Trump’s sweeping tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada and China kicked off a trade war that could dent global growth and reignite inflation.

The tariffs, which will take effect on Feb. 4, include a 25 percent levy on most goods from Mexico and Canada, with a 10 percent tariff on energy imports from Canada and a 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports.

“The relatively soft stance on Canadian energy imports is likely rooted in caution,” Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh said in a note.

“Tariffs on Canadian energy imports would likely be more disruptive for domestic energy markets than those on Mexican imports and might even be counterproductive to one of the president’s key objectives — lowering energy costs.”

Goldman Sachs analysts expect the tariffs to have limited near-term impact on global oil and gas prices.

Canada and Mexico are the top sources of US crude imports, together accounting for about a quarter of the oil US refiners process into fuels such as gasoline and heating oil, according to the US Department of Energy.

The tariffs will raise costs for the heavier crude grades that US refineries need for optimum production, industry sources said.

Gasoline pump prices in the US are certainly expected to rise with the loss of crude for refineries and the loss of imported products, said Mukesh Sahdev at Rystad Energy.

Trump has already warned that the tariffs could cause “short-term” pain for Americans.

US gasoline futures jumped 2.5 percent to $2.11 a gallon after touching the highest level since Jan. 16 at $2.162.

“It is clear that the tariffs will have a negative effect on the global economy, with physical markets set to get tighter in near term, pushing crude prices higher,” said Panmure Liberum analyst Ashley Kelty.

Investors will also be watching for news from an OPEC+ meeting on Monday, with expectations that the oil producer group will stick to its current plan of gradual increases to output.

Rystad’s Sahdev added that tariffs, if kept for long, have the potential to cause production losses in Canada and Mexico, which could help OPEC+ to unwind output curbs.


Banking, healthcare to drive 8% growth in Saudi stock market profits in 2025: SNB Capital 

Updated 03 February 2025
Follow

Banking, healthcare to drive 8% growth in Saudi stock market profits in 2025: SNB Capital 

  • Petrochemical field is projected to record substantial growth of 74% in 2025
  • Healthcare division is anticipated to achieve a 23% rise in net profits, up from 11% in 2024

RIYADH: Saudi stock market profits are set to grow by 8 percent in 2025, with the petrochemical sector driving the increase, according to a new report by SNB Capital. 

Banking and healthcare are also expected to see big rises, with the industries benefiting from increased loan activity and expanded operations. 

If petrochemicals are excluded from the analysis — with energy giant Aramco dominating the market — the Saudi stock exchange would see a 14 percent growth in profits.

This broad-based growth across key sectors highlights the resilience and dynamism of the Saudi economy, setting the stage for heightened market activity and increased investor confidence. 

These favorable conditions have translated into a surge in initial public offerings, with strong demand from both institutional and retail investors driving significant gains in 2024.

The petrochemical field is projected to record substantial growth of 74 percent in 2025, driven by improved prices, additional production capacities, and a return to full operational activity following widespread maintenance closures in 2024. 

The healthcare division is anticipated to achieve a 23 percent rise in net profits, up from 11 percent in 2024, driven by a 20 percent revenue increase attributed to new expansions that help mitigate margin pressures. 

The cement sector is also poised for strong growth, supported by the acceleration of mega projects, while the car rental industry is expected to benefit from fleet expansion, operational efficiencies, and lower interest rates, though short-term rental margins could face some pressure. 

Strong expectations for IPO activity in 2025 have been bolstered by lower interest rates, accelerating economic activity, and attractive investor incentives, according to SNB Capital.

Macroeconomic sentiment remains favorable, with over 85 percent of managers forecasting at least three interest rate cuts in 2025, signaling a shift toward easier financial conditions. 

The report underlines a growing proportion of managers who view the market as undervalued relative to its fair worth, though a majority still consider it fairly valued at its peak. 

Oil prices are expected to stabilize in 2025, with most fund managers predicting a range between $70 and $79 per barrel. 

Optimism is rising across sectors such as tourism, banking, and construction, while cautious views persist for the energy and petrochemical industries as they continue to navigate challenges. 

The strong market activity witnessed in 2024 lays the foundation for the optimistic forecasts for 2025, as the momentum generated by increased IPOs, rising transaction values, and sectoral recovery is expected to carry forward into the coming year. 

The Tadawul All-Share Index recorded a sharp increase in IPOs in 2024, reversing a decline in the prior year. 

The number of IPOs rose to 14, up from eight in 2023, with total proceeds reaching SR14.2 billion, compared to SR11.9 billion the previous year. 

Institutional subscription coverage rates improved significantly, averaging 126 times in 2024 compared to 61 times in 2023, while retail subscription coverage increased to an average of 16 times from 11 times. 

Market activity surged in 2024, with the number of negotiated deals reaching approximately 3,500, compared to 918 in 2023 and 1,316 in 2022, according to SNB. 

Negotiated deals generally refer to transactions that are arranged through direct agreements between buyers and sellers rather than through open market auctions or bidding processes. 

In the context of the stock markets, it can imply block trades, private placements, or structured deals involving large volumes of shares or assets that require direct negotiation to determine terms such as price and volume. 

Although the average deal size declined to SR24 million from SR34.6 million in 2023, the total value of transactions climbed to SR84 billion, significantly higher than SR29.5 billion in 2023 and SR38.9 billion in 2022. 

Major offerings contributed to increased market liquidity and a higher proportion of free-floating shares. 

Among them, Saudi Aramco’s secondary offering in June stood out as the largest secondary issuance in the Middle East, Europe, and North Africa since 2000. 

The offering raised SR42 billion through the sale of 1.55 billion shares at SR27.25 per share, surpassing the scale of its 2019 IPO. 

Saudi Telecom Co. followed with a secondary offering in November, generating SR38.6 billion through the sale of 2 percent of its public shares, or approximately 100 million shares. 

Meanwhile, SAL Logistics Services completed an IPO valued at SR6 billion, with shares expected to be distributed to shareholders in early 2025 at an estimated value of SR7 billion.