There are lessons for Pakistan in the 1971 secession of Bangladesh

It is over 50 years since the fall of Dhaka and the creation of Bangladesh, yet the event remains one of the most painful episodes in the history of Pakistan that weighs heavily on the national psyche. On Dec 16, 1971, Pakistani troops surrendered to Indian forces, which was the denouement of a tragic chronicle of the West Pakistani ruling elite’s political recklessness. In the war of independence, as termed by Bangladeshis, many lives were lost and much violence was borne by the innocent Bengalis. The loss of one-half of the country was traumatic for Pakistanis too, which they have collectively tried to erase from memory. The national curriculum fails to include this humiliating chapter in the history books.

However, there are vital lessons to be learned, and not doing so condemns Pakistan to making the same mistakes as were made in East Pakistan. The economic exploitation of East Pakistan by the West Pakistani ruling elite, comprising martial law administrators, bureaucrats, and large business groups, set in place the tinderbox of political alienation that was set alight by the disastrous decisions made by President Yahya Khan on the insistence of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto.  

According to the Report of the Panel of Economists on the Fourth Five Year Plan (1970-75), while East Pakistan comprised 55 percent of the total population, West Pakistan received 69 percent of the overall allocation of the total government expenditures between 1950 and 1970. Similarly, East Pakistan’s exports constituted 59 percent of Pakistan’s total while imports were only 30 percent. The East maintained external trade surpluses while West Pakistan accrued trade deficits funded by external borrowing and the surpluses generated by the Eastern wing. 80 percent of the foreign assistance monies received by Pakistan were spent in the West. Mahbub ul Haq had highlighted as early as 1963 that the Pakistani government was transferring real resources from East Pakistan to West Pakistan. 

Despite the deprivation under martial law, or possibly because of it, East Pakistan enthusiastically participated in the first democratic election in the history of Pakistan that took place in Dec 1970.  The Awami League, headed by East Pakistani Sheik Mujeeb Ur Rahman, won 167 seats out of 313 National Assembly seats. He requested President Yahya to convene the assembly to form the government of a united Pakistan, but the ruling elite decided to obstruct the political will of the majority. Instead of transferring power to the Awami League, it chose to intervene militarily. The die was thus cast and East Pakistan lost.

Pakistan’s inability to assert civil supremacy and implement economic policies for the welfare of the people is starkly evident when compared with Bangladesh’s progress since its separation. 

Javed Hassan

The new state of Bangladesh went through its own period of military interventions, but civilian political forces vigorously pushed back on such intrusions to remove the armed forces' involvement in politics and incontestably establish civil supremacy. On the other hand, in Pakistan, non-political forces in collusion with a complicit political class, enabling bureaucrats, and rentier business groups, continue to shape politics and the political economy. The hybrid compact influences policymaking and enables agencies to control much of the economic resources as well as extract rents.  

Pakistan’s inability to assert civil supremacy and implement economic policies for the general welfare of the people is starkly evident when compared with Bangladesh’s progress since separation. Not only has Bangladesh’s economic output significantly outpaced that of Pakistan - in 2021 Bangladesh's per capita was USD 2500 compared to Pakistan’s per capita GDP of USD 1540 – but more importantly, the gap in the Human Development Index (HDI) between the two countries is growing. In 2021, Bangladesh ranked 134 out of 189 countries compared to Pakistan’s 154. Despite having started behind Pakistan, Bangladesh now does better than Pakistan in almost all dimensions of human development such as life expectancy, education, health, and gender inclusivity.

Pakistan’s poor economic performance has arrived at a point where it now possibly faces bankruptcy. The question of the legitimacy of governance manifests itself in the confrontation between the hybrid compact and the popular leader, Imran Khan.  His elimination, a possibility that has been made real by a recent assassination attempt, could unleash fissiparous forces and a breakdown of social cohesion. If there is widespread instability, it could put cooperative federalism in jeopardy. 

However, unlike in the case of East Pakistan, whose geographic separation allowed it to cut a path to independence, the crisis Pakistan presently faces does not offer such an obvious outcome. In order to avoid a messy breakdown in the civil order, there is an urgent need to hold a free and fair election that provides a clear mandate to address the many imbalances eroding public confidence in the viability of the state, not least of which is the perception of lack of rule of law.  Failing to do so could result in yet another traumatic episode as disastrous, even if different, as the outcome of the attempt to contain legitimate East Pakistani political aspirations.

- Javed Hassan has worked in senior executive positions both in the profit and non-profit sector in Pakistan and internationally. He’s an investment banker by training.

Twitter: @javedhassan