Pakistan’s political conflict is not about elections anymore
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It is a bigger political game, never played before in Pakistan with such spirit, conviction, perseverance and massive public support to a player in the field. Neither is it in the shadows, wrapped in ambiguity in the drawing rooms of dynastic rulers. It is in the open, a more complex power struggle than we have seen in the past through so many crises the country has endured.
The game has two dimensions, one very old, unsettled issue of civil-military relations, and the other, relatively new, between dynastic political forces with stakes in maintaining the status quo and the movement of Imran Khan against them.
The new strength that this movement has acquired since Khan’s ouster on the night of April 9 this year has turned public focus and interest to the root problems of Pakistan’s politics and the real cause of national decay, endemic disorder and instability. If there is any winner so far, it is the narrative of Khan, which has shaped the new phase of his two-and-half decades of active resistance to the power elites. It is clear that the two major dynastic political families controlling the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League-N (PMLN) and their allies have pursued policies against national interests and run a corrupt patronage system with a very broad network of beneficiaries in politics, businesses, bureaucracy and judiciary to maintain their hold on power. Khan’s storyline goes like this: It is systemic elite corruption that has caused the decline of Pakistan, and recovery will require making them accountable for the wrongs they have committed against the country and the people. However, that will not be possible without wresting power from them by popular support. To the misfortune of the old guard elites, the narrative has sunk deep into the political psyche of the largest and most volatile section of the population, the youth, urban middle classes and now general public at all levels. This doesn’t mean the ‘corrupt’ patronage system of the traditional ruling class has crumpled altogether; it is weakened but they are resisting change by pooling up their strength.
To his advantage, the titanic plates of mass support have shifted in Khan’s favor.
Rasul Bakhsh Rais
Never have we seen such a large, diverse, and previously conflictive alliance of political parties in a single fold, as we see today in the form of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM). It has religious, sectarian, regional, ethnic and the two main former rival political parties, the PPP and PMLN together to fend off the challenge. What makes them stand and stick together? The rise of Imran Khan and his Tehreek-e-Insaf, proved too big a political force after the 2018 elections to confront by each doing it alone. Most of them faced criminal and corrupt investigations, heightened accountability and the daily rhetorical tirades of Khan. Being old hands in politics, experienced and deft at making and breaking governments in the past, they played the final round pulling Khan’s allies and his party members of the National Assembly on to their side. His reactive, relentless campaign for the last seven months has seen his popularity rise unimaginably high. This is the real worry for the PDM. It fears, and rightly so, that if elections are held earlier than scheduled late next year, Khan may sweep with more than two-thirds majority, meaning he may turn autocratic, revengeful and put a last nail in the coffin of dying political dynasties or cripple them to never rise again.
We have seen many politicians airing views against Pakistan’s powerful military leadership in the past, but never so loud, so consistent and clearly stated, as by Khan. He has gone much farther than the conventional allegations of anti-democracy. He has cast a doubt on their integrity. This may push the PDM and the military establishment to a tighter hug, and their allies in the media and bureaucracy fear that if Khan succeeds, they all lose out. To his advantage, the titanic plates of mass support have shifted in his favor. If things go wrong, we may expect an earthquake, a political tsunami, or worse.
- Rasul Bakhsh Rais is Professor of Political Science in the Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, LUMS, Lahore. His latest book is “Islam, Ethnicity and Power Politics: Constructing Pakistan’s National Identity” (Oxford University Press, 2017).
Twitter: @RasulRais
