KARACHI, 5 July — As political parties get into gear to launch their campaigns and build their alliances, uncertainties are building up about the consequences of October elections. At one level, the proposed package of constitutional amendments has raised doubts about the power that the elected government would wield and whether the mainstream political parties would be able to freely participate in the elections. At another, President Pervez Musharraf’s confrontation with religious militants and the forever simmering tensions with India are becoming a large distraction.
On Wednesday, Pakistan’s security forces had another encounter with suspected Al-Qaeda fighters who are believed to have found a refuge in the country’s tribal belt along the frontier with Afghanistan. This time, initial reports said that four Al-Qaeda activists and two security personnel were killed. But in the first such incident last week, ten members of Pakistan’s security forces had lost their lives and this had suddenly underlined the hazards of rounding up Al-Qaeda and the Taleban fighters who may have escaped from Afghanistan. In spite of the strategic US assistance in this operation, the task is likely to take some time. Meanwhile, the military rulers have to contend with its domestic fallout.
Also on Wednesday, India’s new Minister for External Affairs, Yashwant Singh, harshly blamed Pakistan for not fulfilling its promise of stopping the infiltration of militants into Indian-held Kashmir. He said that the situation in the disputed territory of Kashmir had worsened in recent days. Observers were wondering if the extensive reshuffle in the Indian Cabinet had signaled a fresh surge in India-Pakistan tensions. This development, incidentally, was marked by the visit to the region by Britain’s Defense Secretary Geoff Hoon, with the professed intention of further defusing tensions between the two South Asian nuclear states.
Against this fractured backdrop, the proposed constitutional amendments have somehow not attracted the attention that they deserve. While political elements have generally condemned the proposals, there are little signs of any strong popular reaction, raising the possibility that Musharraf would finally get away with his plans to substantially revise the very character of the 1973 constitution. The main thrust of the amendments is to enhance the power of the president, giving him the discretion to sack the prime minister and the Parliament.
As political commentators have noted, the new constitutional proposals reflect the world view of the Pakistan Army and its perception of how the country’s politicians should behave. It has been argued that the amendments, which are to be debated in public, are meant to perpetuate the authority of President Musharraf, who has already assigned to himself a five-year term on the basis of a controversial referendum. But while the military’s aim is to put an end to the kind of disorder and uncertainties that are associated with civilian, political governance, the proposed arrangements are likely to generate a lot of discord after the October elections.
The most crucial issue is the role that the Pakistan People’s Party of Benazir Bhutto and the Pakistan Muslim League affiliated to Nawaz Sharif would play. Musharraf has repeatedly vowed that the two former prime ministers, both of whom are now living in exile, would not be allowed to return to politics. The alliance of religious parties, seeking support for its passionate resistance to the US influence on the present rulers, also has the potential of creating some noise and fury.
There will surely be some changes and adjustments in official policy toward political parties before the elections are held, if only in the context of Musharraf’s own choice of a favorite from a number of loyal prime ministerial aspirants. Imran Khan, for one, has bitterly criticized the constitutional package but this could be a tactical device to improve his credibility. Waiting in the wings we also have the former President Farooq Leghari and such untiring hopefuls as Ghulam Mustafa Jatoi. In addition, the dissidents from the Nawaz faction have a large claim on the present rulers’ favors.
However, the fate and the credibility of October elections may still rest on the options that are available to the three largest parties in previous elections — PPP, PML (Nawaz) and Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM). According to a report published on Wednesday, these parties may not be allowed to contest the elections if they do not remove their leadership. And this prospect is difficult to imagine at this time. MQM’s Altaf Hussain is residing in London for more than ten years but his hold on the party, with its stronghold in Karachi and urban Sindh, is undiminished.
What is significant here is that the newly enforced Political Parties Order 2002 would allow the Election Commission to prevent a party that is headed by a convict or absconder from taking part in the elections. There have been convictions or pending cases in courts against all three leaders. But it is difficult to conceive party-based elections without these three parties. And that is why the political future of Pakistan is in the balance.
